POLITICS CORNER

[Stanley]

Richard, you are right of course about needing both upgrades but at the moment we are watching total abdication from addressing any of the really fundamental problems. We're waiting for the final list of library and museum closures here at the moment.... These are of course regrettable but nothing compared to the starvation of significant funding in primary education. Look at the recent figures on literacy and numeracy... This bunch have lit a lot of very slow burning fuses and they will be long gone before the inevitable results hit us.
You sound almost as cynical and depressed as I am. I used to say I was glad I am old because with a bit of luck I'll escape before the fall-out but I was wrong, I'm seeing it now and these undercurrents of deterioration in society are so powerful and slow moving that I fear we ain't seen nothing yet. You are right about the collective myopia, largely caused by the focus of the media on the 'next big story'. When did you last see a news item about food banks, homelessness, deterioration of housing stock or increase in child poverty and infant mortality? Cameron et al have persuaded the mass of the public into thinking that migration and benefits scroungers are the current problem.
As you say, it was ever thus. Go back into the site archive and read Charlie Webster's piece, 'Healthy or Hungry Thirties' on the way public health statistics were manipulated by government in the 1930s to 'prove' that 'things were getting better'. Exactly what is happening now in all areas of governance.
"I'm all right Jack! Pull the ladder up". The only positive thing I can conjecture at the moment is that there is a faint hope that when things get so bad they can't be ignored, something better might emerge from the ensuing chaos but I will definitely not be here to see that!

[Stanley]

Jeremy Corbin continues to ask pointed and sensible questions at PMQs but gets no answers. Dave is totally consumed by what Jeremy described yesterday as his internal Tory problem. I reckon that's just about right. Is what we are watching a desperate effort to remain in the Leader's position? I look at men like Rees-Mogg and Redwood and they frighten me. I once knew a very senior civil servant who worked in Wales under Redwood when he was Welsh Secretary. He told me then that he was a dangerous man... That was a long time ago but I still believe it.

[Stanley]

Buried under the splutter of news on the EU negotiations are some worrying pieces of economic news. Mark Carney announced that there is no prospect in interest rates rising this year. GDP growth is being revised downwards, wage rate increases have slowed and the reasons given are the evident slow down in global economic activity. The markets are very nervous largely because of the Chinese economy faltering and the failure of the oil market which is no longer seen as a benefit in terms of lower energy prices but what looks like a permanent failure in the seemingly solid oil boom. Nobody is forecasting a price per barrel higher that $50 over the next couple of years and at this level the fields that remain viable are those in the most politically unstable parts of the Middle East. More and more commentators are seeing signs that are uncomfortably like those noted with hindsight in the run up to the 2008 credit crisis. In some ways this is more serious than it was then as the banks no longer have the tools of interest rate cuts and quantitative easing at their disposal. When QE was first brought in many economists said that it was impossible to forecast what the results would be and it begins to look as though it was a very inefficient tool because all the evidence points to the fact that the only long term beneficiaries have been the banks. Add to this the relaxation of controls on the banks in the UK, the unbalanced nature of the internal economy and the rising debt which is fuelling the 'economic miracle' and things do not look anywhere near as good as the government forecasts and interpretation.
There is increased cohesion to the arguments that the benefit alterations that are in the pipeline are in fact another cut and many families will be worse off. All public services are now underfunded to the point where their ability to function is eroded. The outlook for short urban and rural public transport is dire, many bus services will vanish this year. In short, there is no let up in the austerity policy which in itself has been rejected as inefficient by growing numbers of public bodies and commentators and the consequences are starting to show. Funny that we aren't hearing any opinions from Ossie on these matters.
I know, I am a Jeremiah but I have always believed that we should be realistic and plan for worst case. Worst case looks worse now than it did previously. In fact I can see no way out apart from radical change in government policies.
Consider for a moment the injection into the domestic economy of the money repaid to bank clients and the cunning changes in pensions. Are these long term improvement? Or are they only a discontinuity in the money supply and ephemeral? Cunning Wheezes and public service cuts aren't going to get us out of this one. The only way out is more progressive taxes on wealth and an improvement in value added manufacturing industries. As Newton said all those years ago, "More people making things".

[PanBiker]

I noted that Cameron's lot today is trying to sell his EU wonder deal to the Poles and Belgians. I'll lay Lincoln odds that he will have the use of interpreters as required. I bet he hasn't bothered to learn the language of either of his trading partners.

[Tizer]

Stanley, I take on board all that you say above and agree with it but we still come back to the fundamental question: as a nation, what are we going to do about it? The opposition parties are in disarray and ineffective. Cameron's government is fully committed to its policies and there doesn't seem to be sufficient rebellion among the Tories to bring about any change. I'm forced into pessimism and the only outcome I can foresee is change brought about by disaster, either home-grown such as a `Leave' decision in the referendum on our EU membership, or forced on us by war. One chink of light in all that darkness is the slightly perverse possible outcome of a `Stay' decision - it could upset the Tory party enough to cause a better balance between them and Labour. But then I'm not very optimistic of that decision being made in a public referendum.

[Stanley]

I'm as puzzled as you are Tiz. Naomi Klein's book 'Shock Doctrine' might hold a clue. Suppose there was a repetition of 2008? Would it be possible to sell the same tired old regressive 19th century solutions? Or would such a disaster force us into new progressive thinking? Piketty alludes to this when he posits that one possible outcome of the fact that GDP isn't going to keep up with population growth this century, and the absence of any moves towards a global wealth tax, the most likely outcome eventually is social unrest. In other words power shifting from the establishments to the people. It's happened before.....
Have a look at the sudden drop in GDP in the US and have a ponder......

[Tizer]

We're definitely headed towards a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis so that might well be the turning point, coupled with EU in/out decisions, migrants, oil price, Russia etc. We've haven't heard much recently about the political shifts in Greece and Spain.

[plaques]

As always the difficulty in assessing a particular situation depends exactly where you are sat. An example of this is the debate whether the 1930s depression was actually a depression or not. The average unemployment rate during this period was only 15% therefore the depression wasn't really severe but there were pockets in Lancashire and the north of England that reached 70%. You can't get much worse than that. So looking at the Northern Poorhouse (sorry, Powerhouse) some firms may be doing Ok but a lot are struggling. Guess where you see Ossie in his hard hat?
The problem with countries rebelling and overthrowing governments is that they rarely start with poor people rebelling. Most rebellions are initiated by the top strata who can manipulate the media to their advantage. As long as Cameron can keep the Brexit crowd in check it will be business as usual.

[Stanley]

I share that view Tiz, a repeat is inevitable and in the present state of instability it could be sooner than anyone thinks. That's why the markets (and Mark Carney) are so twitchy....
You're right about the difference between the average and pockets of depression P. See Charlie Webster for exactly the same syndrome in health in the 1930s and how that was exploited. This is being exploited now for short term aims. In the short term I think you're right about Cameron and Brexit but there are wider forces at work and I fear Harold's dictum may be the key. "Events Dear Boy!"
It's a bit like the present ructions over migration into UK and Europe. These are short term views, with the increasing effects of climate change mass migrations are going to increase and we will not be immune from the effects. Once again, the politicians, the ignorant and the chattering classes are missing the big picture.....

[Tizer]

...the Northern Poorhouse (sorry, Powerhouse)...

Thanks for that Plaques! I guess Cameron and Ossie have been saying `Poorhouse' all the time but their Eton drawl makes it sound like `Powerhouse'. (On the other hand, they might have been saying `Poohouse'.)

I think the Cameron government is approaching the implosion I predicted some time back. It now only needs the EU referendum as the final trigger perhaps.

[Stanley]

I hope you're right Tiz. Surely this one sided revision of the whole of society can't go on much longer?
I heard a news report of deliberations in the Upper House about suitable premises to move into during renovations of the H of P. Envious glances being cast at the Foreign Office and Treasury but they will have none of it. What they should do is decide to build a new modern centre for all legislature somewhere in the country with good transport links and relegate the old building to a museum, or better still demolish the whole thing and build social housing on the site.
Social housing.... Now there's a part of the wholesale revision of society! We need a revision of the way we govern the country, why don't we start at the top and get shut of 'tradition'?

[Stanley]

Is it my imagination or has there been a subtle change in the 'spin output' from Number Ten? Apart from the semi-permanent dribble of 'news' about developments in the totally artificial EU negotiations, all we have heard from Dave is how he is going to get rid of 'sink estates' (converting genuine social housing into development opportunities for spivs) and reform the prisons. Ossie seems to have gone into purdah. I can't help thinking that we are being bamboozled, our attention is being diverted from the gloomy global economic outlook. Markets in Asia are falling again this morning. The slowdown in China has sent commodity prices into decline and the continuing disaster that is the oil market is causing immense problems for the producers and the economies of national governments who rely on oil revenues. Even Norway, who have managed North Sea income so well, is reporting cut backs in government expenditure to avoid negative effects. The US economy is giving rise to worries as their GDP is revised downwards and the available tools in the Fed's box are not sufficient to address this. QE, which was seen as the magic bullet has failed and many economists are beginning to suspect that it had negative effects in the long run as the money pumped into the world's economies largely failed to reach the grass roots but became lodged in the banks. The problems facing the Euro have been swamped by the current migration crisis but are worse than ever.
We, the general public have insufficient information to make a firm judgement but all the signs are that the modern financial structures are failing. Can you remember the heady days before 2008 when 'the New Economy' was being heralded, the end of boom and bust? Politicians like Alan Greenspan and Gordon Brown were hailed as saviours of the world economy and economic policies were founded on this optimistic view. Look at the results and weep, once more they got it all wrong. Mark Carney was talking about a cautious raising of interest rates 12 months ago. Now the unanimous view is that no rise will be possible for at least twelve months and indeed some commentators are predicting a further fall to 0% in the UK. I doubt this if only because it would be an admission that all the measures taken in the last eight years have been useless. It would appear that the emperor has no clothes.
I look back to Marx and Keynes.... I listen to Piketty and Stiglitz, I note sources as disparate as RBS and George Soros advising caution and even asset selling. I see nothing positive at all. If you hired a plumber and he did a botched job what would you do? Go figure what we should do with the present bunch of politicians.

[Bruff]

To be fair to Mr Brown, I think he claimed ‘an end to Tory boom and bust’. This was the well-worn practice of engineering a boom just near to an election to win over the voters, only to be followed by the inevitable bust afterwards as it sunk into the sands on which it was built. Now Mr Brown’s ending of this engineered Tory boom and bust was itself all a mirage as he had been bamboozled by the financiers who had not the first clue what they were doing, but managed to hide their ignorance and incompetence behind a cloak of complexity just as incomprehensible to us as it was them. After all, big words and complexity look incredibly clever and competent and authoritative don’t they?

The PM’s comments on the Calais situation post an ‘out’ vote provoked comment. It is an extremely legitimate question to ask what the situation will be with respect to British border control being on French soil should the vote here be to leave the EU. The French coast there will de facto become an external EU border just as Eastern Slovakia is an external border with the Ukraine, and I might note there will be another external border somewhere between Warrenpoint and Dundalk on the island of Ireland.

A lot of things we take for granted will may well change after an ‘out’ vote; some may be to our advantage but some may not. To some extent it is the ‘out’ side that needs to explain their line on these issues as for the ‘in’ well, it’s the status quo, what we have. So I was a little irritated by the PM choosing what I think is termed ‘project fear’. He could have simply asked what the plans are, when we leave, for the maintaining of UK border control on French soil? What the plans are for the Irish/Northern Irish border? So, what’s Farage’s and Davis’s and Lawson’s plans here?

I ask because on Radio 4 yesterday morning the journalist Charles Moore was quizzed by Nick Robinson. His argument, pressed by Robinson, as to why the UK could expect a better deal with the EU on leaving than the Norwegians and the Swiss have was that we are more important than them! Or as I would translate that: ‘we are the UK and we would get this because we deserve it’. Sorry, but the Europeans are grown up people and the days of the UK (the English really) going around telling foreigners what to do are long gone. Some folk are in for an almighty shock and all ‘outers’ should be mercilessly pressed on their plans for any issue or eventuality that springs to mind. Then we can see how much is wishful thinking framed through the famed British (English) sense of superiority and entitlement.

Richard Broughton

[Stanley]

What a good post! Thanks Richard because, secure as I am in my decision already made, to vote 'IN' I had never thought about those questions. My own person al view is that of course the French would reconsider acting as UK security in Calais, they'd be fools if they didn't. Ireland hadn't dawned on me. Will all the cross border smugglers be voting 'OUT'?
See THIS for the latest news of the UK market. It appears I am not the only one who is pessimistic about the 'economic miracle'. I didn't realise until later this morning that at one point yesterday trading Barclay's shares was suspended because of the volume of sell orders. Ossie will find some way of using these matters as an excuse for the overall poor performances. He will say I told you things were going badly.....

[plaques]

There is never going to be a simple logical answer to the Brexit question. Many people will vote according to their firm belief that being ‘in or out’ is the correct thing to do. Others may simply vote to come out because it will maintain the capital status quo and further entrenching their position at the top. These may be joined by people who for no other reason than bloody mindedness want to see Cameron embarrassed and step down. The ‘in’ faction will possibly hope that collectively Europe will become more republican and offer a better deal to the ordinary man. In a sense this will be following the lead of the French Revolution in 1789 but without the ‘terror’ aspect. Just to add a little confusion, Corbyn has thrown a spanner in the works by going against military intervention and also declaring that he suspicious of the ‘secret’ North American free trade agreement which may water down the existing workers rights.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, Osborne is still tied to his self imposed ‘Balance the Budget’ programme, (in normal times). If current thinking is correct he may have to make further ‘tough choices’ by imposing additional spending cuts or by increasing taxes. The easy bit will be hitting the benefit scrounges even harder and then increasing petrol taxes to show that we are all in it together. The hardest part will be delayed until he can get international agreement on closing loopholes offering the pretext that it is far too complicated for a single nation to act alone. Trotted out to the theme tune of ‘The Thomas Crown Affair’.

[Stanley]

"There is never going to be a simple logical answer to the Brexit question" I suspect you are right P.
The more I surf the financial pages, the more I trust the predictions of men like Piketty and Stiglitz. P makes a good point about Ossie being forced to squeeze even harder to keep to his stupid 'balanced budget' legislation. But are these 'normal times'? Get out clause being poor global economy? The 'Not me Guv' syndrome? Bit of a mess isn't it....

[Tizer]

`Housing: MPs criticise 'right-to-buy' funding model' Right-to-buy
"The way the government intends to pay for its plans to allow social tenants in England to buy their homes is "extremely questionable", MPs say. The Commons Communities Committee criticised the funding model for the right-to-buy scheme, which will see housing associations reimbursed for selling homes to tenants at discounts. MPs say it should be paid for directly rather than via council house sales."

Bruff refers to the Radio 4 interview and the mention of how Norway and Switzerland manage OK outside the EU. When I heard that interview I immediately thought of the recent Radio 4 programme which was devoted to Norway's relationship with the EU. The up shot is that Norway might as well be in the EU; in order to gain all the trade deals etc with the EU it accepts EU regulations and puts them into force as we and other members do. They even joke about the `morning fax from Brussels' telling them what they have to do that day. Everyone who intends to vote Out and thinks we could still have trade deals with the EU should listen to that programme.

[Bruff]

Just to note that there is nothing secret at all about TTIP. Almost all the EU’s negotiating papers, setting out their negotiating position, are published here, where you can read them:

http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-foc ... dex_en.htm - the landing page; and then the detail:

http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/press/ ... fm?id=1230


I say ‘almost’ because just as in this country, some Government papers are quite rightly restricted due to their sensitivities. This general website is excellent as any number of Commission papers on any matter are published here, just as in this country our own Government publishes papers. There is no more secrecy in the EU than there is here at home, nor is it any less democratic (some would argue the EU is more democratic given that, unlike here, no legislation at all is agreed to by unelected individuals such as a Lord or Baroness).

TTIP is the EU/US trade deal currently being negotiated. Should we leave the EU, then we will not be subject to the TTIP EU/US trade deal (or any other deal the EU has made with any other trading group or nation, such as the recent one agreed with Canada). We will have to negotiate our own trade deal with the US, and everywhere else including the EU. With respect to the EU, we will need to decide whether it is a trade deal or continued access to the single market (a free trade agreement and a single market are completely different). The questions I would ask ‘outers’ who bang on about TTIP is this: given we will no longer be a part of the on-going EU/US TTIP and how will you ensure any deal with the US the UK alone negotiates will be more advantageous to us? Indeed as a general question I would like to know the reasons why any trade deal we negotiate alone will be more advantageous to us than one we negotiate as a part of the biggest trading block in the world? And with respect to the EU, do we want continued access to the single market or simply a free trade deal? In the absence of either, with anyone, the WTO rules apply. Is this what we will simply rely on?

Now I fully agree that people will vote on their guts but they should do so in the full knowledge that there will be very, very many changes should we leave and there is no guarantee at all that these will be the their and/or the country’s advantage.

Richard Broughton

[Bruff]

Norway is interesting. The Norwegian people do not want to be a part of the EU even though at face value they might as well be given they cough up money to it, sign up to every Directive and are a part of Schengen (which we aren’t) as well as the ERASMUS scheme for University students.

But it’s worth noting the reasons why they don’t want to formally join the EU. One is that the EU would take a dim view of Norway’s state support for its energy (oil) sector which as we know, has been used to build up one of the world’s biggest sovereign funds to ensure splendid pensions for all. Our money here, so far as I can tell, has been hosed down the lav. In addition, the Norwegians argue that membership would bring greater centralisation. The UK is of course, one of the most centralised counties there is and we seem happy with it having elected one of the most centralising Governments in history. Fishing is Norway’s 2nd largest industry after oil and the EU would not be favourable to this; in the UK much as we bang on about fishing, it hardly features on the same scale and never would. Last and remarkably, the Norwegians see the EU as a threat to their welfare state and social equality whereas in the UK the EU is a bulwark against the dismantling of social equality that many would like (the bulwark is the EU’s Social Chapter which many if not most Tories despise).

Basically what I’m saying is that we are nothing like Norway. If we left, then socio-politically I’d argue we’d be nothing like Norway; the better comparison would be Belarus. Economically? Well, we’d have to wait and see but I'd not be hopeful.

Richard Broughton

[Stanley]

Boring I know but as usual I agree with everything you say Richard.... I'll admit to being swayed by my gut feeling in voting to staying in, I've read too much European history and survived WW2 and I can assure anyone who has doubts that what we have now is far better than anything we had then! I can't help making an analogy of a bloke who buys a car, decides he doesn't like the design and rebuilds it. If we go out we will have to rebuild and I have no confidence in our leader's abilities to accomplish this. We are where we are and whilst I have no problem with 'fighting for our corner', I'd rather see us buy into peace and security with as little loss of sovereignty as possible. France doesn't seem to have a problem with that.....

[Tizer]

Being in the EU is like being at sea in a rusty, leaking ship with a multinational crew who are bickering instead of mending the leaks, and the officers are always hidden away in their mess issuing orders by memoranda. But I'd rather stay aboard and try to get them organised than risk jumping into the ocean.

[Stanley]

We have to stop these analogies Tiz.....
I'm watching Jeremy Hunt's handling of the junior doctors crisis with horror. The fact it has got to this stage where he is going to impose a new contract is an indictment on all those who have managed the NHS for decades. My horror is based on two facts, I wouldn't trust Hunt any further than I could throw him and nobody knows whether the doctors are crying wolf when they forecast a shortage of doctors because of these changes or whether the new contract will permanently damage the NHS. It's all down to cost-cutting no matter how it is dressed up and I think Hunt is playing a dangerous game. One thing is certain, if he has got it wrong it's the patients who will suffer, not him.

[PanBiker]

Through all this current dispute I can't get over the fact that the Tories keep banging on about the new terms being vital to provide a 7 day health service. What the hell does he think we have now, do the hospitals close at 5pm on Friday? No they don't and never have but this level of service has only been provided for the last 70 years off the backs of the staff working hours that are not sustainable over the long term before burn out takes it's toll. I for one am proud and very grateful for our 24/7/365 service. I have only ever been hospitalised twice in my life both at weekends and both during bank holiday periods. In each case I was seen and sorted by junior doctors backed by experienced consultants. The bloody man should be made to work alongside one of these heroes for the whole of their working week and take the crap that comes with it and give him the same pay, he might get an idea what the argument is about

[Stanley]

Hear Hear! I couldn't agree more Ian. Look at David's report on the Council Budget and weep. As I keep saying, we ain't seen nothing yet! They say we are the 5th most wealthy country in the world.... Ask yourself where the money is going.... Remember Dave writing to his local council complaining about cuts? Who the hell does he think is responsible? At one time it was the Gnomes of Zurich.... now it's the Gnomes in Whitehall!

[Stanley]

A decision has come out of Number 10 that I approve of.... The House of Lords decided that the use of vellum for recording Acts of Parliament was too expensive (£80,000 per annum). The treasury office has stepped in and said they will finance it and seek to put in place a permanent arrangement to safeguard the use of vellum in the future. I like that......