POLITICS CORNER

[Stanley]

The ballot papers are out and it would be sensible to keep stum and wait for the result. Their calculation is of course that one sound bite from them can influence the final result. Ed Balls was part of the biggest fantasy the party has ever seen and look where that ended..... But when were these men ever sensible.....
I wonder how the 'brainstorming' session went on at Chequers? They are running the country like an advertising agency.

[PanBiker]

Sally got hers early last week and voted online.

[Bruff]

‘’………..the proposals for a Transatlantic Investment and Trade agreement have foundered. Good! I think it was more about the giant American service corporations getting a toehold here…’’

Leave campaigners argued that this agreement, what we know as TTIP, could only be stopped by voting to Brexit. The EU you see, was hell bent on signing this agreement with the potential consequences for the NHS etc. it could bring.

We Remain folk said well this is a load of nonsense, as all the negotiating positions of the EU are available online (a deliberate decision from the EU’s lead negotiator, a very impressive Swedish lady who will play a big part in EU/UK negotiations) and from these it is clear the way the EU would resist this and other adverse potential outcomes. We were also aware that the whole deal was floundering anyway in the EU given political resistance in France and Germany, and we have it seems been proved right the past couple of days on this.

We Remainers also noted that actually, if you really do want the UK to be really hit hard by any trade deal with the US then let the likes of Boris and Liam Fox negotiate a UK-US trade deal. Or if you like, if you don’t want the UK to be hit hard do not let Dr Fox etc. anywhere near the negotiations. This sadly fell on deaf ears because the EU shut the shipyards in Sunderland or something, and stopped a hospital being built in Thurrock or whatever.

So here’s a scenario. The EU has spiked TTIP. When we Brexit, the UK will sign up to a ‘TTIP’ in a flash. Another ‘leave’ lie.

Richard Broughton

[Tizer]

TTIP...We Remain folk said well this is a load of nonsense, as all the negotiating positions of the EU are available online (a deliberate decision from the EU’s lead negotiator, a very impressive Swedish lady who will play a big part in EU/UK negotiations) and from these it is clear the way the EU would resist this and other adverse potential outcomes.

Another example of false claims by the Leavers made where there is full, genuine information to the contrary in public online is "The EU is going to have its own army". There are a few EU people who have suggested such a thing but nothing more than that. The EU relies on the armed forces of the individual member countries. An EU army couldn't be set up without a unanimous vote in favour; any one member country could veto it. Now, this leads to a genuine danger that hasn't been admitted by the Leavers. If we leave the EU we will no longer have a veto on any of its issues, such as formation of an EU army. Likewise we will no longer be able to stop the EU admitting new members. The Leavers' claimed: "Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey will join the EU soon." What they didn't say was "Their admission will be subject to a veto by the UK and all the other 27 existing EU countries". Once we `brexit' we've lost the power of veto, so the actions of the Leavers may bring about the very things that they feared - an EU army, Turkey as a member etc.

The full facts about the so-called EU army are here: LINK

[Stanley]

Also militating against TTIP is the November elections on US and next year's elections in EU.
I was really impressed by the lady who announced the Apple fine. Impressive! A very good decision clearly explained and it could be the first shot in a really focussed movement to spike the multinationals tax avoidance strategies. The crunch will come when, if Apple's appeal fails, it attempts to set off the £9million against US tax.
No hot news from the brainstorming session.....
Later. No wonder there is no news. I thought the Chequers meeting was over the weekend but it wasn't. The first meeting of the Cabinet in this session is taking place there today when attendees are to report on what opportunities they have identified from Brexit...

[Tizer]

An even bigger crunch might come if Apple gets together with the other big global corporates like Starbucks, MacDonald's, Amazon etc to fight the the EU. They've got vast amounts of money to spend and it's worth them spending it to protect their tax schemes. This would be where we find out who really makes the rules now and who has control.

[Stanley]

They are quite sure who runs the show Tiz.... I heard a commentator say the other day that when the Robber Barons in the US got too powerful the Anti-Trust legislation was brought in to curb them and this is a comparable situation. Time the governments got together and did the same thing. In turn they might also open up an avenue to debate a Global Wealth Tax. Bit optimistic I know but we can live in hope!
Not sure how accurate the polls are but a You Gov survey for the Times suggests that at the moment it's Corbyn 62% and Smith 38%.
Regardless of who is 'right' the situation in the NHS is dire. The junior doctors are threatening strikes again. Hunt's use of statistics and the whole concept of the 'seven day service' has been blown out of the water but still the government pushes for a new contract. One thing is certain, the patients lose out in the end. My question is what is driving this?
The more you listen to Trump the more you doubt his qualifications to even stand for President. He goes to Mexico and comes back singing the praises of the 'wonderful wonderful president' who will definitely cooperate in reducing immigration but then comes back and repeats all his rhetoric about building a wall, installing extreme tests for residency and describing immigrants as 'criminal'. He says there will be no more talk of amnesty. How bare-faced a liar can you get? Hopefully the polls are right and Clinton will win but is this necessarily a good thing?

[Tizer]

How bare-faced a liar can you get?

Well, we could start with some of the politicians who told bare-faced lies in the run up to the EU referendum. If they weren't telling lies the only other conclusion is that they didn't know what they were talking about, but that's not much better than them being liars!

[Stanley]

You're right Tiz and it could apply to Hunt at the moment. He's in the High Court on 19 and 20 September where he will have to justify both his actions in enforcing the new contract and his evidence in support of that and the infamous 7 Day Care claim.
Private Eye have a large investigation on the 'revolving door' syndrome in politics this week. I haven't read it yet but it won't be pretty....

[Stanley]

I read the Revolving Doors investigation in PE yesterday and it's a devastating critique of one of the scandals of our time. Many years ago I became convinced that the seat of power in terms of control of the UK was swinging towards the large capital holders, mostly financial institutions without whom the government can't function. The story the PE investigation reveals confirms this incestuous relationship between finance and government. It's a desperately sad commentary on how our politics have deteriorated in the last 50 years.....

[Stanley]

I was thinking yesterday about the decisions the government has to make at the moment, largely because of the fact that Cameron and Osborne were kicking the can down the road for over 6 years. I shan't list them, too many and you know them well enough. One thing is certain, many of these pigeons are coming home to roost on Theresa's watch. Being PM could be a poisoned chalice!
Meanwhile, what are they doing? Dithering about the fall out of Cameron's Catastrophe. Some legacy!

[Tripps]

Mrs May is currently at the G20 meeting in China.

Asked if she trusted the Chinese she said: "Of course we have a relationship with them, we are working with them and we have seen significant Chinese investment into the UK. What I want to do is build on that relationship, but I also want, here at the G20, to be able to build on relationships with other countries."

I think we can safely take that as a 'no'.

[Stanley]

Dead right David. She is beginning to find out that being PM is no bed of roses. She is having to address the 'promises' made during the referendum by the Leave campaign that a points based system was the answer to migration problems. It was pointed out at the time that these systems aren't all they were cracked up to be. This will generate opposition to her and you can multiply this many times as other 'promises' are broken. She is already having to issue warnings that all may not be plain sailing for the UK economy and in addition Obama has reiterated what he said in the campaign that trade deals with the EU would have precedence over any separate deals with us. There is no get out of gaol free card here!
I've been soaking up Stiglitz on the Euro and he is shedding light on many aspects of modern governance that have puzzled me like the obsession for privatisation and outsourcing. One point he makes very strongly (and will doubtless return to) is that economic policy is based on outmoded economic models like monetarism' the 'small state' theories of the Chicago school and a blind belief in the self-correcting mechanisms in the Market. These same flawed theories dictated the establishment of the European Central Bank and the results can be seen in how they handle the problems with the Euro, his analysis of the threat of Grexit is brilliant. Stiglitz says that the basic cause for these policies is a focus on preventing inflation and not on protecting employment and lower class incomes to promote consumption. The workers are seen as expendable and of course we see this same principle in the austerity measures that swept over Europe after 2008 in particular the attack on welfare and other social benefits. This concentration on flawed economic metrics trumps expenditure on health, education and welfare. My advice to you is read him, he makes so much sense! (I suppose I am also saying that he is proving I was right all along! That's always seductive!)

[Stanley]

Finished Stiglitz yesterday. A good and well argued case for some deep thinking in both the EU and the UK. He is dead against austerity but even more insistent that economic policies must break free of the old monetarist, market-oriented principles which are embedded in political thinking and especially in the ECB. He has no time for Osborn or Junkers and gives his evidence why. I hope that this book is being read in the chanceries of Europe and Downing Street!
His main thesis is that we have allowed the market and in turn the financial institutions too much control over the way our economies are run. In particular he argues for orientation of policies to support wages, employment and the social safety nets. He argues that the well-being of the productive members of society, the workers who add value, are more important than narrow focus on inflation and interest rates designed to nurture the big banks. 'Clearing the deficit' is illusory, it does nothing for GDP or the wider economy. He is not an out and out Keynesian but definitely leans in his direction. Friedman style theories about monetarism and the market were wrong when they were popular in the 1960s and are even more wrong now.
Keith Vaz is in trouble.... I'm afraid I was never a fan.....

[plaques]

Stiglitz is one of those rare breeds of economists, Nobel prize winner and ex-chief economist of the world bank, that can't be simply dismissed as left wing. As he himself points out politicians have moved so far to the right that what was a one time considered as moderate is now extreme left wing. His book is very detailed and logical and is probably the only book that goes anywhere near to explaining the 'Euro' problem. To try to cover such a book in a few words would be pointless and would probably only show the bias of the reader than the overall intent. What it does show is that the 'Euro' as a single currency will be lucky to survive in its present form but unfortunately with Germany in the driving seat and gaining most from the current chaotic situation it will try to muddle through with a minimum of change. In my view it also shows why Corbyn has been less than enthusiastic in supporting the current trends within the EU market with a virtual stagnation of GDP growth and lower social benefits than were originally promised. The down side of the Brexit is that the EU may try to punish Britain for its audacity in leaving as a warning to other countries. This is not totally improbable since Greece was punished with excessive austerity measures that made its position worse. Also, we now in the hands of other vested interests with very little social conscience.

[Tizer]

I'm not likely to get around to reading books like this one by Stiglitz so I appreciate both of you providing summaries and comments here!

[plaques]

I know the thought of reading a book on economics is like watching paint dry. If you do get hold of a book it would only take about a week to read and that's not going flat out. Stiglitz explains the problem with the Euro Currency with clarity and it all makes sense in my eyes. The politics of the European Union is something different but one of the points I picked up on was that it was the levels of unemployment in Germany and not currency inflation that gave rise to Hitler. Another myth exploded. Stiglitz does ponder whether the current high levels of underemployment may be the cause of some of the more extremist politics that is now taking off in Europe.

[Stanley]

In a radio interview about a week ago he said that the economic advisory committee that Jeremy Corbyn set up is in abeyance during the leadership election but as soon as there was a resolution after the election he expected it to meet again and he would still be a member. This could apply to Thomas Piketty as well....
Another factor in the weakness of the Euro that he gives an explanation for is the puzzling failure of the founders of the original European Project to take the measures that would give enough political integration to enable the Euro to function properly, they knew that it was necessary. He says that they believed the current Monetarist and Market oriented theory of economics was correct and all powerful. They 'knew' the market was always right and that pressure from this source would be so powerful that it would tend to ensure that the states would integrate of their own volition without any coercion from the centre. Like so many other expected benefits of this way of thinking it never happened.

[Tripps]

Is it chance or planning that there is a lady with a mini skirt caressing her own knee directly behind the Prime Minister? I've barely heard a word Mrs May has said yet.
I've an idea she may be my MP. No doubt we will find out later.

PS - no it isn't. She is Lucy Frazer MP. Member for S.E Cambs

[Tizer]

So you'll be moving to S.E Cambs next, I suppose?

[Stanley]

I get the impression that Owen Smith is resigned to a Corbyn victory....
I get the impression that Trump is getting desperate as well. He says he has a secret plan for defeating IS....
Roll on the end of September!
Later. Justice Goddard says she wasn't allowed to choose her own staff, the Home Office loaded the staff with their own civil servants. The survivors say they are considering pulling out of cooperation because it was under Home Office supervision that the alleged abuse occurred. Amber Rudd the Home Secretary says (in effect) that Justice Goddard is not telling the truth. Who do we believe?
Theresa May is advocating more selection and new grammar schools. So equality of opportunity doesn't interest her. I said when she got the job that I suspected she was more reactionary than was generally supposed. Tory DNA runs strong within her.

[plaques]

I always remember my brush with the 11+ exams. After days of waiting for all the placings to be declared I finally got notification I had passed. At first I thought it was because they were waiting until the brighter kids had made their choice of schools and then given me the leftover. It could also have been because with a surname starting with 'Z' I was last on the list. Actually I discounted this as being improbable. Arriving at school my immediate thoughts were that I would be at the bottom of the class, a real thicky compared with everybody else. This worry was compounded by being dumped into the lowest form level. As events unfolded there were certainly kids smarter than me, eventual PhD's and all that but there were some who were really struggling. Later I found that 10% of places had been 'reserved' for 'other' entries. My lingering thoughts were that there was something fishy about the whole selection process and that it all boiled down to the quality of the teachers. Since all this took place in the early 50's we were thankful for what we had been given.

[Tizer]

..At first I thought it was because they were waiting until the brighter kids had made their choice of schools and then given me the leftover...Since all this took place in the early 50's we were thankful for what we had been given.

Did kids get any choice in which secondary level school they went to in the early 1950s? For me it was the late 1950s and as far as I know we had no choice, but I could be wrong - my parents tended to accept whatever they were told. I was sent to not the secondary modern and not the grammar but what was then the local `technical & grammar' school, a left over bit of the post-war changes in education. It was probably the right choice for me, whoever made it!

There's going to be more pressure on the EU to make big changes to how it's organised. A pity we didn't decide to stay in and help make the changes... `Visegrad group to table proposals at Bratislava summit' LINK

[plaques]

I can only talk about the Burnley authority. The Towneley Technical School had just opened (1951) and were taking their first students. Kids who 'passed' their 11+ would then have a choice of Grammar School, Technical School or the standard Secondary School and the so on down the pecking order but never upwards unless there were vacancies. Bearing in mind that the higher levels required uniforms, satchels etc there was a financial penalty on the parents who chose to go down this route. Also the local Secondary School would be a lot nearer therefore no transport costs. It also became clear that those who had access to some private tuition could play catch up on the brighter kids. Is private tuition acceptable? On the whole I think yes. It certainly helps where the teaching standards are low but helps to create the class separation that gives an advantage to those who can afford it.

[PanBiker]

I remember being ridiculed in front of all my classmates for choosing not to go to Grammar School. Everyone took the 11+ and I passed but told my mum and dad and my teacher that I didn't want to go. 10 mile journey twice a day on the bus or train, my brother had attended and had dropped out at 15 it did him no good at all so I elected to go to Barlick Modern. I could walk to and from school in 10 minutes and would be taught the subjects I was interested in, I had no need for Latin. My primary teacher thought this was unforgivable as I was wasting my life where other children in the class who really wanted to go but couldn't because they didn't pass the exam, I should have been more grateful! She stood me on a chair in front of all my mates and told me how useless I was despite having passed. Never forgot the elitist nature of the process. I went to the local secondary school got enough qualifications to get an apprenticeship at 16. Went on to a five year City and Guilds came out a skilled man at 21 and used what I had been taught to raise and feed my family. None of our kids went to Grammar either although all were given the opportunity. All did college and A levels. Two went to Uni and one straight into work after college as he didn't want the same debts as his older siblings. Our daughter is a teacher, our eldest son had a degree in advanced mathematics and our youngest is making his way in IT and infrastructure support.

More Grammars are wrong, raise up the standards of all the existing schools, ability will always rise to the surface.