POLITICS CORNER

[Stanley]

I have to confess I have had matters on my mind other than politics of late. However, I am moved to make some comments... I heard Theresa May the other day talking about the Brexit strategy and her statement was larded with words like 'demand' and 'tough negotiation'. I fear she may have a rude awakening. As I understand it, no 'negotiations' or even conversations can take place until we have informed the 28 EU countries that we are initiating exit by invoking Article 50. At that point we lose whatever initiative we hold now and we become supplicants. Adjusting to this change may prove to be the biggest problem she faces after March next year. (We are promised that Article 50 will be invoked before then.)
All this of course depends heavily on the passing of her 'Great Reform Bill' which is by no means a forgone conclusion. Commentators say that there is still division inside the Tories with hard line Brexiteers pressing for more Draconian measures versus more pragmatic Tories.
Phil Hammond sounded like the worst kind of old fashioned bank manager yesterday. He had to give the serious warning about 'turbulent' conditions ahead without frightening the horses. Hard to discern any tangible policies but he was forced to recognise that the Osborne strategy of clearing the fiscal deficit by the end of this parliament is dead. He presented this as a change of course but in fact it is a fait accompli. No way could it happen. We are left with the vague idea that his strategy depends on more cuts, more austerity and in consequence more stagnation in productivity and GDP. They make much of better manufacturing performance but this is a fleeting effect caused by the slow devaluation of the Pound. The basic problems remain and there is no sign of any serious attempt by this government to relax repressive economic policies and encourage growth. Nobody but a fool could imagine that the eventual terms of exit will not make survival more difficult. The basic problem of national and personal debt is still there and growing. I am not optimistic!

[plaques]

From a book by an economist who writes for the Telegraph. Basically the content is about the Euro and the EU but is very wide ranging but tends to support his own preferred views and outcomes. He makes it clear what real purpose of austerity is about. The gist goes something like this.. Cut backs in spending affects people "A" who in turn restrict their spending on "B" and so on. This ultimately results in a cut in manufacturing and redundancies. The increase in unemployment places a downward pressure on wages which hopefully makes manufacturing more profitable therefore more employment etc, and so the market cycle starts again. In the long run it all comes out Ok but as Keynes said ' in the long run we are all dead'.

[Bruff]

‘’As I understand it, no 'negotiations' or even conversations can take place until we have informed the 28 EU countries that we are initiating exit by invoking Article 50.’’

Article 50 starts the process of leaving. It is in our gift to trigger this. This sets a 2-year timescale to leave the EU and this process is simply the nuts and bolts of rescinding membership of the institution – budget commitments, status of EU institution based in the UK and so on. The 2-years can be extended, by agreement of all other Members (this is not in our gift); rescinding Art 50 once triggered (i.e. we decide to change our mind) is also not in our gift (and I expect the rest of the EU to say ‘no chance’ if it came to that; I think they have had enough of us already). No trade negotiations at all can start with any non-EU country until we have left for the simple reason that until that time, we remain a member of the EU and the EU negotiates on behalf of all its Member States. They can also not start with the EU for essentially the same reason. I know this was lost on the Brexit Minister Mr Davies (strange as he was a self-proclaimed ‘committed Eurosceptic’) but then the characteristic of many if not most Brexit voters is they have not the first clue of the institution they so vehemently oppose (hence the Italian lady I mentioned on another thread sitting with her friends and laughing at us).

The view appears to be crystallising in Europe that the UK will be given a ‘hard Brexit’. Not because Mrs May says that’s what she wants. Rather as German Minister Dr Schauble pointed out before the vote, the question posed at the referendum leads naturally to that eventuality. Rightly or wrongly we were asked whether we wanted to be a member of the EU, yes or no. Membership of the EU means membership of the single market and its four pillars, as well as its budgetary commitments and legislative programme. If you do not want to be a member then it’s quite clear you do not want to be a member of the single market etc. or pay any money into the budget and so on. So there can be no question of a soft Brexit as we have decided we want nothing at all to do with the institutions and obligations a soft Brexit would imply. Of course, one might argue that was never the intention of the question but if I was a German or an Italian or a Benelux politician/citizen etc. I wouldn’t see it as my role to sort out or otherwise parse the question for the UK. People have to be accountable for their actions. I’d take the question and outcome at its very clear and straightforward face value. It’s for this reason Mrs May is now talking about a hard Brexit I’d wager; she knows she’s getting nothing else.

Richard Broughton

[PanBiker]

Now here's a scenario, picked up via the "We Support Jeremy Corbyn" Facebook site, worth a read and comment.

Get out of jail free?

Britain on path to Brexit, but don’t bet on it just yet

[Stanley]

Bugger! I have just deleted a carefully thought out demolition of May in her interview last night with Laura Kuenssberg (a smart cookie!) Her use of the keywords 'Fundamentally sound economy', turbulent times' and 'encouraging manufacturing indices' can all be shown to be very weak. She got very shifty and deployed these phrases instead of answering the question when pressed on the 31 year low of Sterling and the fact that the increase in manufacturing is a temporary result of this. The 'fundamentally sound' economy is a myth. It is fuelled by national and personal debt and is encouraging optimism in the markets, exactly the same as pre 2008 and it will end in the same result.
Richard clarifies well as usual and the only thing I would add is that the last thing the EU decision makers want to do is give the UK a soft landing as this would encourage other members to press for the same concessions. 'Punitive Exit' has got to be the order of the day.
P is dead right about the purpose of austerity, it was always so. In a failing industry bad management will always blame wages and of course the Unions. What they forget is that the lower 85percentile of the economy are the most efficient users of available capital because they can't afford to lock it up in investments, they have to spend it and the economy gets the benefit of the multiplier effect, a powerful tool for stimulating the whole of the economy. Austerity destroys this tool. When did a high wage economy hold back a country?
Probably just as well I deleted my original. I can't half bang on about this! The bottom line is that May wasn't comfortable last night. Her purpose was purely political, to bolster the carefully constructed message coming out of conference. Laura rained on her parade and she didn't like it. Things are nowhere near as rosy and settled as May wants to present to us.

[Stanley]

May's speech at Conference was a masterpiece of spin. In her effort to get away from her own description, 'The Nasty Party', she banged on about creating a meritocracy where origin and class won't count. For a start off, I doubt if she will make any impression on the system, many others have tried and failed. History tells us that despite what Margaret Thatcher said about protest, any change comes from below not the top as it is not in the interests of the 'upper class' to let too many people join their ranks. She also completely failed to mention why change is needed, think Food Banks, evicted families, rough sleepers, child poverty and infant mortality. Add your own pet hates to the list, it's a long one. We have a record number of families living in poverty caused by low incomes and lack of jobs paying a living wage. This should be the focus, not pious aspirations about merit. Until the Tories realise this there will be no improvement. In fact, if we read between the lines of the Chancellor's speech there are more public service and welfare cuts to come.
No. I'm afraid 'The Nasty Party' is still alive and well.

[Tripps]

Diane James has resigned as leader of UKIP.
She is said to have signed her acceptance letter and added the letters VC which are Latin for
Vi Coactus, meaning under constraint or duress, and thus invalidating it.

Never heard of that before. Might try it on my next income tax return.

[PanBiker]

I went to my first Labour Party branch meeting on Tuesday night, first one in over 20 years. It was held "in the round" and not to any strict committee structure. Everyone introduced themselves before the start of the meeting and the common thread of the attendees seemed to be disillusionment with the Blair years with membership cards sent back and then a rejoin when Socialism is no longer a dirty word in the party. We discussed the proposed Boundary Commission changes formulated a branch response and other issues. It was not revolutionary left wing plotting although one member did mention that he took Socialist Worker, we had tea and biscuits half way through, choc chip cookies as well.

[Stanley]

The Right Wing rags would be disappointed with that report Ian. No mention of clenched fists and the singing of the Internationale! Glad you went and interesting that many were disillusioned for the same reason as me. Did anyone mention Clause IV?
I note that Corbyn's latest reshuffle of his Shadow Cabinet is ruffling a few feathers, he is accused of favouring his 'cronies'. Another way of looking at it is that he learned a lesson with his first cabinet and is using his head. What did they expect him to do? Give power to those who want to oppose him? All the evidence is that this is a more confident man who has learned lessons. Let's give him some space and watch what he does.....

[Stanley]

Ever since the anti Corbyn campaign started I have believed that it was down to two things, the attacks from outside the Party were driven by fear of the unknown, a politician who actually told the truth and stated personal principles and from the inside a simple power struggle between the PLP MPs who could see power ebbing away and a membership allowed to state preferences. The signs are that the MPs are still fighting against what they see as erosion of power. I don't know how he can mitigate this without moving away from his core principles. There is too much self interest and personal ambition in all our politicians. They appear to have forgotten that their role is to act in the best interests of their constituents.
Read THIS and then ask yourself the question.... Just what does this man have to do to disqualify himself from Presidential Candidacy? I admit to being totally baffled.....

[PanBiker]

The signs are that the MPs are still fighting against what they see as erosion of power. I don't know how he can mitigate this without moving away from his core principles. There is too much self interest and personal ambition in all our politicians. They appear to have forgotten that their role is to act in the best interests of their constituents.

It may yet come down to discipline and deselection for some by their Constituency Parties. Branches have only just been released from the unconstitutional ban from meetings and debated forced on them by the PLP. Some may yet see who actually holds the power of their tenure.

[Tizer]

[Trump]Just what does this man have to do to disqualify himself from Presidential Candidacy? I admit to being totally baffled.....

The trouble is he simply responds by saying: "I didn't say that/I'm not really like that/I'll be different when I'm elected/Hillary's worse that that" etc etc. And unfortunately America has an awfully large proportion of very gullible people.

Putin's applying more pressure...`Russia deploys nuclear-capable missiles in Kaliningrad' LINK
This is provocative. Kaliningrad is separate from the rest of Russia and located between Poland and Lithuania. It has a sea port on the Baltic which is supposedly the only one available to the Russians on the Baltic that is free of ice all year round. The Russian navy's Baltic fleet is based there. It's an ideal spot for stirring up trouble.

[Stanley]

A powerful 'Dump Trump' movement is growing in the Republican Party but the question is, how can it be done when voting has already started?
I think you're right Ian and There will be interesting outcomes. Cleaning the stables is always a slow and messy job!

[Tizer]

Advance voting should be kept to the bare minimum, used only where there is no other option. As many voters as possible should be able to make their final decision on voting day. The Trump fiasco is a good example of why advance voting is bad.

[Stanley]

That's a good point..... what would happen if there was a sudden death?
Words fail me after listening to reports of the Clinton/Trump debate.....
One thing that strikes me is that I don't buy this 'locker room' excuse any more than I buy 'banter'. I've been with some rough company but I've never heard anything as bad as the bus video....

[Tizer]

I heard a senior Republican Party woman on the radio saying "That's simply what men say to each other in private". I find her comment offensive. I wouldn't say such things and nor would most of the men that I've known well. I wonder what Republican women say to each other in private? If we are lucky Trump will turn out to be too offensive even for Republicans (but let's hope he reaches that point before election day!).

[Stanley]

I totally agree Tiz but I think we are the wrong generations to have valid views on this. I have mentioned many times that I abhor the way women are routinely treated on popular TV soaps and shows. Even in the army I never heard or participated in anything like this. I came across a story when I was doing the LTP, memory says it is in the Arthur Entwistle who related it to me, a young lad had said things about a young lady and he was forced to issue a retraction and apology in the local paper. Could that happen today?
As for Trump, could he have gone too far this time? Ryan, the House Leader has publicly disowned his Party's own candidate. (LINK TO BBC REPORT)

[Stanley]

I listen to the Brexiteers, particularly Davies, talking up the benefits that will accrue to us but than note the 'Flash Crash' at weekend which took the Pound down to $1.14 and since then has steadied a bit on 5% down since June 23. The markets look at the short term and London closed yesterday on a high. This is largely because many of the companies in the index are international and deal mainly in US dollars so they have gained by the falling exchange rate. Exporters also get a boost, their goods are cheaper abroad but of course this is a very short term advantage because any new stocks of imported raw materials will be more expensive. The key indicator is that the US fed is talking about raising interest rates while the BofE forecasts a further fall and more QE. I'm afraid that Ossie's 'economic miracle' is getting threadbare as Cameron's Catastrophe sows uncertainty and nibbles away at the figures. I can't really see any hopeful signs here. All the indicators are that it is going to get worse and there is a very real possibility of a run on the pound. I ask myself, what happened to the 'new economy', 'no more boom and bust' and the myth that the Tories are 'the best managers of the economy'. It could be a very bumpy ride.....
Looking at the US.... Tuesday November 8th is the day they go to the polls, only 4 weeks to go until all the uncertainties will disappear. At the moment it gets even more surreal, the man who is famous for surveying the indices and giving very accurate forecasts of the results says that Clinton will win. However, other commentators look at the unstable nature of public opinion and warn that we may see a wild-card result and Trump could prevail. This is a candidate who, on normal assessments, has broken every rule in the book but may yet be President. Further, he is in effect standing as an independent candidate having lost the support of so much of the Republican elite. Ryan, the Leader of the House, speaks of concentrating on the numbers elected to the Senate and the House of Representatives and he may be on the right track. No matter what the result the long term prospects of the GOP have been badly damaged by terrible mismanagement.
I think the thing that worries me most is the fact that if you look back at inauguration speeches over the years they have usually been underpinned by a feeling of hope and progress. I can't see how this can be the case this time.
Later, I have a lot of sympathy with the MPs who are demanding a say in the Brexit debate and terms. May should not be acting like an unelected dictator. After all she has no personal mandate......

[Tizer]

What can the Republicans do if, in desperation, they need to get rid of Trump and prevent him being President and Commander in Chief? It seems difficult to find any useful analysis of this problem but here's an article by a US Professor of Law and the outlook is grim. (The article is poorly written with long-winded sentences and some typos, but it's the best I could find.) LINK

[Stanley]

Tiz, as far as I can see, in practical terms, there is nothing the Republicans can do to get rid of Trump. It is their own fault, for years they have allowed good basic principles to be eroded by self-interest and extreme economic, political and even religious views. They have lost their moral compass and the effects, though slow to emerge, seem to be coming to a head. I admit that I was puzzled by Trump at first. I saw him as a buffoon but I was mistaken. He is a totally self-centred, ignorant bigot who saw a chance and took it. It seems as though the US electorate has more than its fair share of similar people and at last they have seen an outlet for their warped views. That is the basis of his influence and it remains to be seen whether such people are in a majority. Even if Clinton wins the problem is still there and I can only watch with horror as the inevitable affects of a system based on flawed principles aids in its own downfall because that is what this could be. The biggest realignment of global political power in our lifetime.
Meanwhile, in our own part of the forest.... Leaving aside the confusion in the Westminster Village over who has the ultimate power in setting the agenda for Brexit, the global financial markets are driving home at least one unpalatable truth, if you dilute your currency, no matter what you call the mechanism, be it devaluation or 'Quantitative Easing', it becomes worth less with inescapable consequences. This, in a nutshell is what is happening at the moment and it remains to be seen how far the readjustment will go and whether speculators get in on the act. If the sit hits the fan guess who the politicians will blame..... Mark Carney could end up being a scapegoat despite the fact that he has told the truth about the economy throughout.

[Stanley]

Brexit and Marmite..... Discuss.....

[Tizer]

Even if Clinton wins the problem is still there...

Quite so. The hard right have been given a big boost by Trump and they're not going to give up easily. They'll use every trick in the book to claim that the election was invalid and they''ll be helped by Putin's cyber army too, hacking and disrupting the election and subsequent events. (Did you hear that in some parts of the US the record of voting is kept only in digital format, there is no paper record.) Let's not forget too that the extreme Republicans are synonymous with the gun lobby. They're armed and ready to go. There are photos in the newspaper on the weekend of armed vigilantes in southern Arizona going out to shoot any Mexicans who cross the border. Will it be Democrats in the gun sights next? That might sound far-fetched but these people live in a different world to us.

[Bruff]

‘’Brexit and Marmite..... Discuss.....’’

Apparently, Marmite is essentially a by-product of the brewing industry (it’s made in Burton-on-Trent). Brewing requires hops and almost all hops now are imported, the hop fields in Kent going the way of the mines in that county. Thus the costs have gone up rather a lot for US and European hops. I know the Mail would like us to believe their reporting today that this is a ‘Brexit Blackmail’; but it isn’t really. And remember: like the Mail, the Venezuelan and Zimbabwean Government were taken to blaming corporate gouging for price rises as their currencies tanked around them. Folk only believed this for so long. That said, the Brexit vote showed as clear as day that a good %age of this country will believe any old tosh so perhaps we won’t be quite as enquiring as the Venezuelans and Zimbabweans.

Talking of currencies, there are 148 currencies whose performance one can track on Bloomberg. The Great British Pound has these last 12 months performed an impressive 142nd. Those six worse performing currencies include such global economic titans as Angola, Sierra Leone, the aforementioned Venezuela and Suriname. Thank God we’ve pipped Suriname! Brexit Britain. Better than Surname.

Still, ripe for trade deals these six I’d have thought. What they’d want I’m not sure. Our main export – cricket bats – seem destined for the former Commonwealth, specifically New Zealand where we hope to increase our trade with them from current levels. Which is one fortieth of the trade we do with the Netherlands. Still, you have to start somewhere.

I give up……

Richard Broughton

[Stanley]

Don't give up Richard! We need factual posts like that one. I knew our performance was bad but hadn't imagined it could be 142nd.....
Did I see somewhere that the pound is now at a 110 year low? Whatever, what strikes me is that the Brexiteers and their tame press play down the fall, in effect telling us that it is a 'good thing' and a return to 'sound currency'. I'm afraid I don't buy it. These were the same arguments used during the disastrous economic policies 100 years ago as we faced the fact that the Great War had completely altered the world economies. The Right was wrong then and they are wrong now. We are seeing the inevitable result of ten years of bad policies which saw austerity as the answer, a lame economy held up by ever increasing debt and destined to get worse until the day when we start to borrow and re-invest in the country. No signs at all of that happening and if anything, the adverse pressures will get worse.

[plaques]

Don't worry about the BREXIT, we will be able to negotiate a trade deal with the EU that's better than the one we have now. Who says so? Well Boris Johnson of course. So there you have it. Safe in their hands, just be patient we will all be better off.