POLITICS CORNER

[PanBiker]

I heard a comment on the radio yesterday that Canada are still ploughing on after a mere seven years of trying to negotiate a trade deal with the EU. I wonder why the outers still cling to the idea that it will all be sunshine and roses after our 2 year exit. It's a generation game in actuality and the sooner the "professionals" who are attempting to organising this realise the better. I reckon the dawn will eventually break around the magic 2020 that is often quoted for the target of many projects, we can probably start talking about it rationally then.

[Tizer]

The Brexiteers would like us to believe that the collapse of the Canada-EU deal discussions shows why it's better to be outside the EU. Really it shows the opposite - making even just one trade deal is, as Panbiker indicates, a long hard slog with lots of potholes along the way. Better to stay in the EU and help improve how it's managed and benefit from its size and clout. The heating oil syndicate that I'm a member of is a good example of why it's better to join with others to make your deals. I don't have to ring around the various oil companies, negotiate prices for myself etc. The syndicate does it for all the members and gets a big discount. A no-brainer, as they say!

Plaques: "It's all Corbyn's fault". If that approach fails they'll probably tell us "It's all Trump's fault"! Talking of the devil, this web page gives 10 reasons why the US has welcomed Trump: LINK

[Bruff]

Recall too that prior to the vote among many Brexiters CETA was the devil’s work. (Actually, it was the very similar US-EU deal-in-development TTIP that was most usually referenced, but then we can’t expect Brexiters to hold two deals in their heads. And a US-bogeyman is always preferable to a Canadian one, the Canadians being good Commonwealth stock with the Queen’s head on their money and all that. But nonetheless, CETA is essentially the same as TTIP). We were told by many a Brexiteer that the only way to stop TTIP/CETA being forced onto a subjugated UK by a malevolent EU was to vote ‘leave’. TTIP/CETA would leave the NHS say, wide open to corporations, we were told.

Well how flipping inconvenient for the Brexiters that the Walloons have said a firm ‘non’. How inconvenient to see a Belgian province exercising its ‘sovereignty’. I mean, hadn’t the UK lost this? Didn’t we vote to get back something the Walloons it seems never lost? You’d think this would be a pause for reflection on some of the nonsense that was spoken on the EU forcing anything on us. And cause for celebration over the democratic expression of the Walloon people. But oh no. Now apparently, it’s a demonstration of the paralysing slowness of the EU decision-making process! This is heroic daftness. Truly heroic. And folk lap it up!

Now some people may have had the wool lifted from their eyes over this. Some folk might have voted to leave the EU because they had legitimate concerns over trade deals like TTIP and CETA being forced on us. They might now have changed their minds. Which emphasise a key point. ‘Brexit mean Brexit’ the PM says, But the TTIP opponent voted Brexit for reasons very different to the EDL/BNP racist who voted for reasons very different to the person who (however misguidedly I might feel) wanted their sovereignty back and so and so on. Brexit can only mean Brexit if all these different groupings can agree on what the future post-Brexit settlement might be. And the EDL racist’s view of the settlement is almost certainly different to the free-trade sceptic socialist. So was actually does Brexit mean?

The whole business is a nonsense. An absolute nonsense. And just about the worst basis possible for the magnitude of the decisions we have to make.

Richard Broughton

[Tripps]

"but then we can’t expect Brexiters to hold two deals in their heads."


Richard - I think you have just called 17,410,742 people a bit dim.

[plaques]

Trips, "a bit dim" is strong language, I would have said 'gullible'. But to be fair our ex Prime Minister 'what's his name' was a big supporter of the TTIP and no doubt would have signed up to anything. But now we have Boris in charge it will be a different kettle of fish. We will probably sign up to "anything++". The question is if the EU were dealing directly with the US and Canada does anyone in the UK know what's inside these agreements? Probably not is my answer.

[Tripps]

Quite restrained I'd say. I wrote stupid first then changed it.

Who would want to belong to an organisation where a part of a member state could veto the wishes of all the rest. What kind of democracy is that? In fact I don't think that applies to all votes - don't they have something called 'qualified majority voting'? I've read somewhere that we never get our way when we object to something - the qualified majority always beat us.

Did you know that Wallonia derives from a German word meaning 'strangers'. Same root as Wales and Cornwall. Radio 4 have a series of dramatisations by Emile Zola . Tomorrow I think it's Germinal. I think that must have been set in Wallonia.

Is it possible as Bruff implies that some decisions are just too complex, and the prediction of their outcomes is impossible, (even for clever people), for there to be any easy choice?

[Stanley]

You are quite right P. Looked at from that point of view, isn't it a good thing we have an experienced leader like May guiding us through such a difficult process.
Heathrow.... Over 50 years ago I delivered a load of flashings for the roof of a new building associated with a runway extension and I remember a bloke telling me they would never stop extending the airport. I think now that he was right..... May says that the 'decision' to build a new runway and expand capacity shows that 'Britain is open for business'. In view of the fact it has taken us so long to get to where we are now and even if the scheme goes forward after another year of 'consultations' it will be perhaps ten years before a plane actually uses it, all it proves to me is how piss poor we are at making decisions like this.
My biggest beef is that if it happens it automatically reinforces the London-centric nature of our society. The world would be just as accessible from Rochdale!
Boris and his mates are wonderful team players aren't they.... Only trouble is they are in an opposing team. Who coined the phrase about semi-detached Cabinet members?
Interesting discussion triggered by the trade deal question. As usual Richard is magisterial and I think spot on. I like his conclusion; "The whole business is a nonsense. An absolute nonsense. And just about the worst basis possible for the magnitude of the decisions we have to make."
I would only add that it seems to me that the really ridiculous aspect of the whole Brexit question is the assumption that 40 years of history can be unravelled and knitted back together into a different relationship in two years. Look at the example of the Walloons and the Canadian deal. Any concessions we want to get out of the EU are subject to the same veto and there are 28 of them out there waiting to be triggered. The whole of the Brexit argument appears to be couched in terms of economics and trade. To paraphrase Clausewitz "Trade is war by other means". Remember 'Economic Imperialism'? Brexit is a self-inflicted injury.
Leaving economics and trade on one side there are all the other issues, too many to detail. During the whole of the Referendum debate the voices pointing out these inconvenient facts were smothered by jingoistic rhetoric, lies and naked xenophobic matters. The basic principle of the advantages of cooperation and unity, on whatever level. was never addressed. Talk about 'the longest suicide note in history'...... Go figure.
Question..... Has anyone any confidence in Chris Grayling in his role as Minister of Transport?

[Bruff]

Sorry for the length of this, but here goes…..

‘’The question is if the EU were dealing directly with the US and Canada does anyone in the UK know what's inside these agreements?’’

If they don’t it’s their own fault.

Just as you can go on the UK Parliament webpages and find and track the development of legislation etc. and its supporting material , so you can go to the EU’s ‘europa’ pages and do the same. Have been able to for years. The EU’s lack of transparency is simply another pile of nonsense. It’s no less transparent than the UK Parliament, or likely any other mature legislature the world over. As with any policy-making there may be information that is restricted – commercial confidentialities/frank discussions/geopolitical sensitivities and so on – but I struggle to see how the EU can be accused of lacking transparency. It’s seems to me to be an accusatory surrogate for a lack of a very, very basic knowledge/understanding.

So, here it all is on TTIP:

http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/ttip/

On this portion of the EU’s comprehensive website are the EU’s negotiating texts as well as consultation documents that you could respond to as an interested EU citizen. Tells you all about the EU’s negotiating team and it’s priorities and rationale. Everything you need to understand TTIP, on which you can then form a view should you so wish. No different to CETA; this (CETA) is all here:

http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-foc ... dex_en.htm

Same comprehensive information. And just to note, the EU might be leading on these trade talks but as we are still a member of the EU, then our officials and MEPs and Trade Ministers will have played a full role in framing negotiating strategies and reaching decisions. That’s how it works in the EU.

While we’re on this, a common refrain during (and since) the referendum, almost entirely from Brexiters, is no one has an idea who their MEPs are. Well again that’s their own fault. Here they all are:

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/meps/en/map.html


A good analysis on the issue of the UK being on the losing side in EU votes can be found here:

http://ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/does-th ... ministers/

One of the best I’ve read and from ESRC-sponsored research so has a degree of independence. You can make your own minds up on whether the conclusions are a concern; personally, I don’t think they are.


Richard Broughton

[Stanley]

Thanks Richard. I think you have put your finger on the big problem, even moderately concerned and interested observers like me simply haven't the time or the will to go into detail like that. We lose the will to live after five minutes. This means we have to trust the Civil Service and the politicians. I have only one problem with the CS, I'm not too sure about their level of expertise in commercial negotiations apart from that I trust them. The politicians are a different matter, I question their competence and objectivity. All too often they are driven by self-interest, dogma and adherence to the 'Party Line'. I suspect that interference by them is at the root of many of the perceived cock-ups.
The whole of the Brexit debate is riddled with outdated suspicions of the dastardly Continentals. If it's foreign it is suspect. Do we want cooperation and a part in setting policy or are we best served by confrontation? As far as I am concerned it is a no-brainer..... Add to this the uncertainty we have at the moment and as you said Richard, "The whole business is a nonsense. An absolute nonsense. And just about the worst basis possible for the magnitude of the decisions we have to make."

[Bruff]

Exactly. We don’t have the time or the inclination to read through that stuff, and shouldn’t be expected to. We all have other things to do, day jobs, interests and the like. So that’s why we have a representative democracy. We elect and reward quite well folk to read and think about all this on our behalf and make decisions accordingly. As some chap said (was it Burke?), in representative democracy the MP owes you their judgment and not their vote.

But it’s a bit different when we come to plebscites or referendums and why, in most cases, they are generally confined to straightforward binary questions: do you want this flag or that; or a new national anthem. More complex issues? Folk have thought long and hard about this and there’s a lot out there, driven in part by calls for a move away from representative democracy to more popular forms such as plebicites and the like.

On getting information to people one can propose all sorts of arrangments but the first thing to note is that the vast majority of folk are, when given complex information, the time to think about it, the time to discuss it and have their questions explored and answered, absolutely capable of making an informed judgment. It’s why juries still exist. I know from work I’ve done myself that the most complex public policy choices and spend(s) can be grasped and explored by almost anyone be they a Professor of Greek or security guard at NCP. Thus, one could test a policy through 100-odd ‘juries’ of 30 people, ABs/ABC/CDE and mixed groups. You might even suggest that, given this is a random sample of 3000 folk and 1500 folk can predict with a remarkable degree of accuracy a general election result (if the methodology is robust), it could the ‘electorate’ for your policy. Do you have then a rotating electorate? Or do you have a system that assesses whether you understand enough about the issue to make an informed choice? Maybe to vote on a topic, you have to agree to attend seminars on the issue and engage.

I’m just throwing things out off the top of my head here. There’s likely plenty of holes. But in thinking about this, it just shows me what an absolute farce the EU referendum was and why now it seems, we are grappling around with the not the first clue what to do.

Richard Broughton

[plaques]

Getting to the root meaning of a particular word or sentence has been the bread and butter of lawyers for centuries. Even now we are still considering what 'the Royal prerogative' means with respect to the referendum. Even if you could grasp what something means in today's terms future events, dear boy, will give it a whole new meaning. Nearer home virtually every week we hear of someone protesting about plans to build houses on this or that land. Of course most of these objections will ultimately fail because the unsuspecting public didn't object perhaps 3 or 18 years ago. An example of this is a piece of land adjacent to green belt, 18 years ago, was designated as 'protected'. Delving into the small print this protection meant it was protected FOR house building. We can't all be Philadelphia lawyers.

[Whyperion]

"As we look forward and as we develop our industrial strategy, we will want to be working with companies like Nissan, with sectors of the economy, to ensure we maintain that competitiveness and see the UK being a global leader in free trade," May said.

I think that might mean the deliberate exchange rate lowering (it might be that this will lead to inflation as UK consumers generally net importers = pressure on wages = reduction in competitiveness )

Am I wrong?

[Stanley]

I agree with P, that's a big part of the complexity....
Richard, I like your idea of representative electoral juries, just the sort of fresh thinking we need. Our leaders are quick enough to introduce 'new initiatives' if and when it suits them and look how many of them are abandoned shortly afterwards having served their purpose of giving the impression that 'something is being done'. I have long been of the opinion that some projects are too big and complicated to be run centrally by government and that part of the answer is devolution to local level. Look at the NHS for a good example of a marvellous concept that is managed badly with too much interference from government. Running a society has the same problem.
My first thought on hearing the news about Nissan was 'How much are we going to pay them?' A large enterprise like that is governed only by profitability and something has been done to assure this..... I doubt if we will ever know.....
Have you noted the news reports about cross border shopping in towns Like Newry in Ireland? The local exchange rate is parity between the Euro and the pound and this means a minimum discount of 20%, in the case of the large supermarkets like Tesco, nearer 30%. Brexit would appear to be working already for the Good Folks of Eire...... Is the same thing happening on the wider UK?
Later. See THIS for a Guardian report on the Nissan factory. We are assured that 'no financial incentives have been offered' and whilst, strictly speaking this could be true, it appears that the government has guaranteed that Nissan would not suffer from any changes in tariffs under any new single market deal. They can't guarantee anything based on EU actions because this is an unknown so it seems obvious that the promise is that the government will make up any penal tariffs, if so that's when the money will change hands.

[Stanley]

News this morning from Cameron's selection adviser that the five year lock on taxes promised in the manifesto at the last election was policy made on the hoof even though it was recognised to be a promise that couldn't be kept. Now there's a surprise!
The US elections descend to a new low. FBI investigating Hillary Clinton again.Trump saying it's worse than Watergate. Words fail me.... This is beyond surreal now, it is farce.
Perhaps the most far reaching matter this morning is the judgement against Uber which says their drivers are employees and must be treated as such. Of course Uber will appeal. If the judgement stands it will be a massive blow in favour of workers on temporary employment contracts. I hope the court finds for the workers and I'd like to see it apply to interns as well.
Blair tells Remainers to unite and block Brexit..... Doesn't he realise he is a busted flush? I do wish he'd stop attention-seeking and shut up!

[Tizer]

Even the Republicans are surprised that FBI Director James Comey should have triggered this media frenzy at this late stage of the election run-up. He is described as a `lifelong Republican' who `served in the Bush White House'.

For some months now Tony Schwartz has been trying to get people to see how dangerous Trump will be as US President. Schwarz has known Trump a long time and was the ghostwriter on Trump's most famous book. He had to spend a lot of time with the man and now uses that experience to warn people of what Trump is really like. He was interviewed on the PM radio programme last night and you can hear it on this page: LINK
Alternatively you can read this New Yorker article published in July 2016: LINK

[Tripps]

This guy was on Newsnight on Thursday. Very scary interview. He said effectively that Trump was a sociopath, and that he had made arrangements to move him and his family out of the USA in the event he was elected. He said he had connections in Holland. They make a big thing about the President's physical health record in the States, but don't seem to pay so much attention to the mental health aspect . We don't seem interested in either. I still think Gordon Brown has 'issues' in that direction.

On the same show they revealed (allegedly) that the lead counsel in the Jay enquiry had molested a female member of staff in the lift whilst going to a meeting. No formal complaint had been made however, and he resigned shortly afterwards for other reasons.

'So they tackled the job that couldn't be done - and couldn't do it.'

[Stanley]

I couldn't help agreeing with what Hilary Clinton said yesterday, that the FBI intervention is "unprecedented and deeply troubling". My big problem is that I see the whole process in that light. Perhaps the 'qualities' necessary for negotiating the route to power militate against 'normal' candidates.....

[Tizer]

...Perhaps the 'qualities' necessary for negotiating the route to power militate against 'normal' candidates.....

That's definitely so now. Another factor is that money has become even more a part of the process. Not just through bribery but money buys fame, publicity, celebrity status. It's all shifting in favour of people like Trump and Putin.

[Stanley]

Just over a week to the vote and whoever gets in, they are soiled goods.Depressing prospect......
One thing that strikes me is that if Hilary Clinton becomes president the director of the FBI is going to feel the full weight of her displeasure!

[Tizer]

`The FBI is sitting on 'explosive' information regarding Donald Trump and Russia, top Democrat asserts' Independent
As well as reading the article it's worth looking at the gallery of Trump cartoons. Click on the cartoon part way down the page and it opens a gallery where you can toggle through the images.

[Stanley]

The only good thing is that we will know the result in just over a week. I can't conceive how a Trump victory can happen but we will have to wait and see. My mind goes to the millions of children, future voters, who are watching this farce and getting the impression that this is how politics works.....
I see that Mark Carney has silenced speculation about how long he will stay in post. (LINK) I note the virulent criticism of him from certain quarters. That goes with the job, nobody is easier to criticise than the Governor of the BofE. I reflect that the same criticisms could be made, in spades, of every Chancellor of the Exchequer I can remember. Phil Hammond supports him, he has to! If you live in a glass house you don't throw stones!

[Tizer]

It was good to hear the interview on this morning's Today programme with Richard W. Painter, professor at the University of Minnesota Law School and former chief White House ethics lawyer for George W. Bush from 2005 to 2007. His article, `On Clinton Emails, Did the F.B.I. Director Abuse His Power?', appeared in the opinion piece of the New York Times on Sunday. Painter is a Republican but he believes the FBI Director James Comey is very likely to have violated the Hatch Act and to have misused his official position. The article is available to read here: NYT Painter article

Trump may face a problem in Florida. The number of Hispanic voters has shown a big increase recently and they are angry with Trump and want to keep him out of the Presidency. Let's hope they're angry enough to come out and vote!

[Stanley]

I listened to him as well Tiz. My analysis is that the media are congenitally lazy and will always go for the line of least resistance to enhanced reader/viewer figures. The Trump/Clinton fiasco is a gift to them. But then, like a shaft of sunlight we get a responsibly conducted interview like that one and you begin to wonder if the popular view as presented by the media (and that influences the polls) is valid. This is why we could get a surprise on November 8th and see Trump lose by a wide margin. I hope so. I don't like Clinton but she is the the best of a bad job! I wonder how long the bad blood stirred up in the campaign will colour policy.....?
Is anything happening in UK politics? I hear nothing but trivia......

[Tizer]

I heard a commentator yesterday say that what defines the Trumpeteers is `volubility and cynicism'. That sums it up.

Here are some insights into what Russians are seeing in their news media about the US election: `Russian media's love affair with Trump' LINK
They are criticising Clinton and praising Trump and even suggesting that if Clinton wins we might see trump assassinated.

I was disappointed to hear a clip on the radio this morning of Clinton shrieking about what `we women' are going to do to prevent Trump getting in. Remember this is America, she's likely to lose men's votes by taking that line. I fear she might have just thrown it all away.

[Stanley]

Best thing to do is ignore politics until something that we can relate to pops up. At the moment there is nothing grabbing me except the sheer unadulterated mess the whole scene is in.....