POLITICS CORNER

[Tizer]

We're into scary times now, especially with Trump in charge of the US. He's easily goaded into action and Russia and North Korea will take advantage of that to get him into situations where they can say `you threw the first blow'. There's a lot of talk about nuclear warheads, long-range missiles, heavy artillery etc and whether or not the missiles can reach the US or Europe. I wish that world leaders would instead spell out the global danger from radioactive fall-out that would result from the use of nuclear weapons. Radioactive chemicals would contaminate the atmosphere and adversely affect the health and lifespan of everyone, worldwide, for centuries. Sadly, I fear that Trump doesn't understand how serious this would be, just as he doesn't accept that we're causing climate change and that it's dangerous.

As if that isn't enough we seem to be living now in a time of heightened anger, hatred, violence, bigotry, lying, corruption and scandal. Sorry about that, but it's a real fact, not an alternative one, unfortunately. I'd better go off and find a few jokes to lighten the mood! (See the Jokes thread.)

[Stanley]

Don't hold your breath P! We mustn't say anything that will upset our 'best friends' because we need a trade agreement.
".... heightened anger, hatred, violence, bigotry, lying, corruption and scandal." I'm glad someone else feels the same Tiz. I was beginning to think that perhaps it was just me turning into a bitter old man as I age! For a good example, see the row in Liverpool about Kelvin McKenzie's article comparing the footballer to a gorilla and his comments about drug-dealers. Gutter journalism at its worst and what a day to pick to do it on. Why is there any debate about whether he should be sacked or not. He chose to make a living by shocking the public many years ago and it's high time it was stopped.
As for Trump, his foreign policy stance seems to be based on the example of a bull in a china shop. He is so desperate to show he is 'effective' and has the power he fondly imagined the POTUS should command he's going for the only area where his gung ho mates in the military will assist him. It's a very good example of the reasons why our PM should not be able to call in the powers conferred by the Royal Prerogative. Remember it was this that allowed Blair to get away with Iraq.
And that reminds me, how come the publishing of the Chilcot Enquiry sank like a stone..... Bit like the wrong-doing in the financial sector, some people are more guilty than others.....
The present situation with N Korea and Syria combined has elicited comparison with the Cuban Missile Crisis and I am afraid this is a valid point.
In an Easter message Theresa May does her headmistress bit and urges us to unite. The Pope will deliver a message as well......
See THIS for the news of a failed missile launch by N Korea the day after the military parade. This could be bad news as it may give Trump encouragement to go ahead with his gunboat tactics......

[Stanley]

referendums are funny things. The Turkish referendum to change to a presidential system and give the president wider powers has split the country down the middle, remind you of anything?
Trump tweets, May is silent, the North Koreans prepare another atomic test. Happy Holiday......
I'm not sure where THIS should go but it's worth reading and reflecting on. We live in strange times. I thought we were supposed to be one of the richest countries in the world.....

[plaques]

Trump tweets, May is silent

I know this is going to sound very much like a conspiracy theory but I've noticed the similarity of the situation that Tony Blair faced after the Twin Towers (9/11) and what is currently happening in Afghanistan and North Korea. According to Alastair Campbell's Diaries, (The Burden of Power), yes I know its a sad state of affairs when you start reading this sort of thing, there were a number of things that jump out at you.
1. There was no overall American strategy to deal with the bombing of Afghanistan or whether they should include Iraq in their, (W A Bush), response. You can almost equate this to Trump's tweets just blasting off with the first thing that comes in his head.
2. The desire to keep the moderate Muslims on board with Blair visiting the Saudi Arabia prior to the bombing to explain it wasn't a war on Islam. Mrs May did a similar visit but under the auspices of trade deals prior to the dropping of the American big bomb.
3. Before every speech and communication that Blair made on the subject the content was 'approved' and adjusted by the Americans before release. The British press was also told to hold back on speculation of what was going on. Compare this with Mrs May's total silence and no Government statements.
4. Blair recalled Parliament to explain was was going on. Perhaps Mrs May feels a more presidential and secretive approach is required.

The longer she keeps quiet the more suspicious things get or is it that we don't know what to do either.

[Tizer]

I'm not surprised your suspicious, Plaques, and I think conspiracy is probably a more real part of today's world.

On paupers' funerals, part of the problem is that funerals have shot up in price in recent years. That isn't because people want fancier funerals, it's more to do with the expenses involved in even the basic requirements. Cremation fees has soared due to tougher regulations on emission of pollutants forcing new expensive equipment to be installed, for example.

Yesterday, while reading about the history of Korea I found that North Korea has a border with Russia, as well as with China. I hadn't known that before - if you look at a map there appears to be only the Korea-China border but it's more complicated than that. The Russia-China border meets the China-Korea border at a point that looks like it's on the coast on a a map but it's actually a little way inland in a river estuary and there's a bridge over that river from N. Korea to Russia. The N Korea-Russia border runs 11 miles down the river to the sea. And Russia has a big naval base 8 miles from that point at Vladivostock. The first thing that entered my mind was that Russia is going to be very concerned about protecting that city and military base. Low and behold, this morning newspaper headlines say that Russia is moving surface-to-air missiles from the base to near the border point. This is going to get even more complicated!

It was Russia that helped North Korea in the early days develop its nuclear technology, whereas China refused to help them.

[Stanley]

I like it P!
Tiz, that's interesting and I didn't know that. Here's a LINK to an interesting map. At one point China, Russia and N Korea meet. I wonder if the Pentagon have looked at this.....
In the French Presidential election Marie le Penn has pressed the immigration button by saying that if elected she will immediately stop all migration into France. Never has the Lowest Common Denominator been so influential.

[Tizer]

That's a good map for showing the two borders fusing into one, leaving the single border between North Korea and Russia. I wrote that the Russian city and major naval base at Vladivostock is 8 miles from the border with N Korea. I got that from a Daily Express article but that map shows the newspaper got it wrong - it's 80 miles.

The history of North Korea is interesting too, in view of present events. Korea's history is known for at least the last 1000 years. From the 1300s it was ruled by China until it became independent in 1895. In 1910 it was annexed by Japan and remained so until the end of WW2 when, rather like Germany, it was divided between US control in the south and Russian/Chinese in the north. The Korean War then led into the more recent history. Those 15 years of Japanese control probably account, at least partly, for North Korea's attitude to Japan now.

[PanBiker]

General Election June 8th. Theresa May to table a motion for a general election in parliament tomorrow.

[Tripps]

You beat me to it. . .
Quite a surprise to put it mildly. That will liven things up a bit. Good move I think. Can it be a re-run of the referendum?

[PanBiker]

It could be that the Tory non leavers may make a difference.

[Tizer]

Theresa May has seen President Erdoğan's drive to gain greater control of Turkey and now she wants to be Sultan of Britain! By the way, did you see that Sultan Trump has congratulated Erdoğan on winning the Turkish election? Erdoğan wants to bring back the death penalty, perhaps Trump would like that too.

[Stanley]

I can't say I was surprised and I agree with Tiz, May is pedalling like hell to appear statesman-like (Stateswoman?) I suspect more time went into writing that statement outside Number Ten than actually making the decision.
Leaving aside the other parties, plenty of time for them later, what struck me was the tone and the spin. She would have us believe that she has been reluctantly forced into this blatantly political move by the fact that Parliament is divided and she needs a mandate in order to negotiate successfully with the EU. As Teddy Roosevelt once said; "Horse Manure!". (When Mrs R was asked why she allowed Teddy to use language like that she replied "It's better than what he usually says!")
I believe that two things have driven this decision. The first is internal dissent in her Party. They are not united behind her but split on the style of the negotiations. The Old Guard of high Tories wants 'hard Brexit' and a return to the good old days of Empire Trade and laisser faire policies at home, the more cautious want the softest landing possible. Her slim majority of 17 on paper can't be relied on and she can see that in the debates and votes to come it is going to be a close run thing.
Second is the fact that devious they may be but stupid they aren't. There is a more than an evens chance that there is some bad news coming down the line. First is the cost of Brexit, the estimate of around £50billion as the first penalty looks plausible and then there are the ongoing costs of commitments we have made which can't easily be modified without treaty change. At home there are some small black clouds on the horizon. Despite the positive spin that is put on the smallest favourable change in financial estimates, the stark fact remains that compared to pre 2008 levels we are a moribund economy relying on increasing levels of debt to keep the ship afloat. Even the FSA is warning about personal debt levels. It's blindingly obvious that this can't go on indefinitely. Add the fact that inflation is predicted to be higher than wage improvements and the effects of the zero hours and 'gig economy' and even without any Brexit effects, we are going downhill.
The affect of all this is that I believe that a decision has been made that it's better to bite the bullet now and go for a snap election before adverse conditions reveal the full extent of our problems. Spin has worked up to now but the pressure is starting to come on from the public service cuts and is set to get worse.
So, I think this is a straightforward damage limitation exercise and it remains to be seen whether they can affect an improvement. The only prediction I will make is that it's not going to be a pretty campaign. The first thing we will see is a concerted attack on Corbyn, Farron and Sturgeon by the right wing media. Murdoch will make sure this happens. Only one thing is certain, as many a PM has discovered before, in times like these there are no certainties. (See Churchill in 1945) One fundamental error May has made (if her public utterances are to be believed) is that she sees signs of a Tory resurgence in the country. I think this is an illusion, it is lamentable disarray in Labour and Liberal ranks that is giving this impression. The SNP have a principle driving them and are probably the most united party. It remains to be seen what policies UKIP will fight on, I think they could sink without trace. This will be an interesting seven weeks......
Walking is good for thought...... Two things were on my mind, the first is who I vote for. I'm afraid I am one of those dinosaurs who believes in basic principles and loyalty. Old fashioned and out of date I know but in a National Election I shall keep the faith and vote Labour. The other thing that crossed my mind was that the biggest shame in present day politics is the number of people who are totally disillusioned with politics, these are more likely to be the ones who are battered by circumstance and this syndrome hits Labour hardest. Then of course there are the weathercocks who take their opinions from the media and have no deeper understanding.

[plaques]

....by the right wing media. Murdoch will make sure this happens.

In his diaries Alastair Campbell is constantly complaining about the negativity of the press and the media in general. He said he could live with genuine comment but got upset at the out and out lies and total fabrications that the rightwing papers were publishing. His main targets were the 'Mail' and 'Telegraph'. On Murdoch he didn't think they were any worse than the rest of them. Remember that all this was directed at Blair who claimed to be 'left of centre' but was actually more to the right. God help Corbyn, it will be wall to wall character assassination he has already endured near two years of it. The Parliamentary Labour Partly (PLP) won't help, they will probably keep the division against Corbyn going until the party sinks. I know Mrs May tells lies or should we say changes her mind, but that's par for the course for the majority of the politicians.

[Tizer]

Nobody knows what's going to happen in this election. The parties are all in disarray, politics is being tossed about by events like a small boat in a stormy sea, we can't trust what anyone says, polls are useless, the public is sick and tired of elections and referendums, Brexit still hangs over us, and we might be at war before we reach Election Day. Oh, and there's an asteroid about to make a close pass of Earth. We might be in for a shock in one form or another but the only one I'd bet on is that the asteroid doesn't hit us (well, not this time!).

[Whyperion]

I have been talking to (talked at?) a Scotswoman - thankfully living in London, who thinks that Sturgeon is the worst thing ever for Scotland and only interested in herself / scottish independence at any cost. So SNP might not retain all their seats, mind you trying to convince 70% of Scottish folk to change whatever view they hold always seems to be impossilble, even when presented with facts ( maybe that is where Trump gets his heritage from ).

[Stanley]

I agree with you Tiz, I have never seen our political system in such disarray. I was thinking about Corbyn P, you are right, he is going to be a target for the right wing media but I have a funny feeling that his ability to connect with the membership of the party might be his biggest asset. Can he galvanise them into action? Watch out for the Law of Unintended Consequences. May has staked everything on a massive gamble and if she is relying on the polls she could be in for a surprise. Sturgeon is playing a blinder, she's got a brilliant political instinct. Alex Salmond will be advising her and he's one of the smartest operators in politics. Everything is up for grabs now and what's the betting on an earlier bid for independence? Tim Farron is off the mark early and has the advantage that the only way for the Liberals is up. We live in interesting times! UKIP are strangely silent.....
The black cloud for me is memories of the Thatcher Years.....

[Tizer]

Corbyn still seems too much like a blast from the past, as if he's still in the 1960s. It's like somebody promising to protect you from the rain by selling you a Pacamac, when the young people of the 21st Century want a Gore-Tex Advanced weather proof jacket. Sorry, but he's a big let down as far as I'm concerned.

[plaques]

Mrs May's reasons for calling a general election have more than their fare share of spin about them. In her Easter message she offered the opinion that the country was coming together on Brexit. Of course nothing is farther from the truth. The referendum vote was 52% to leave, 48% to remain. Not exactly a total landslide in favor of leaving. Then the £350million a week bonus to the NHS for leaving was just misleading propaganda. In short a referendum re-run may well give the opposite results. So much for the coming together nonsense.
Then we have those 'saboteurs' in Parliament who at the end of the day may be prepared to vote against any agreement that proves to be a load of rubbish. So who are these saboteurs? They turn out to be CONSERVATIVE MP's. People with a conscience that a bad deal should be rejected.
The solution appears to be that any gains from Labour will only contain people who agree with Mrs May and will do as they are told.
So far the initial impression is that this election is totally about the final deal on Brexit. Unfortunately for the ordinary person there will be
more confusing weasel words written into the Tory manifesto. This of course will be the last thing they want to talk about and will do their
best to flood the media with anything other than what the intend to do.

[Stanley]

Tiz, listen to what Corbyn is saying. He's opposing the things we all hate, the hegemony of big money that is running the country their way.
P, I agree about the reasons for the snap election. Most of the opinion I have heard thinks that May will write the manifesto in such a way as to lock in her 'Bastards' (Shades of John Major over exactly the same issue).
I have this funny feeling that (And especially in view of your comment on the split Brexit vote) a lot of people are not receptive to the 'Land of Hope and Glory' stand that May has chosen. It may play well on the sports fields of Eton but not with the general public. The key is going to be in galvanising the disillusioned voters and I think Corbyn is on the right track. This doesn't mean he can pull it off but I feel it is the right way to go about it. A bit more Chapel and less High Anglican if you will.
There is a possible double whammy building here. Note how the markets have bet on a Tory victory.... If the gamble doesn't come off there will be an immediate reaction and it will be blamed on 'The Rebels' and Labour.
The straws have started blowing in the wind. The announcement that the proposals to increase Inheritance Tax in May have been dropped signals an unwillingness to upset middle England voters in the run up to the election. A Bonus for our family as we have been locked in negotiations with HMRC over probate of my youngest daughter's UK estate.
Local politics.... Nice piece in the BET this morning about my favourite councillor, David Whipp. After 17 years he has finally got the Wheelchair Walk Project finished! A lovely caring addition to the town and nice timing David!!

[Tizer]

`EU leader: UK would be welcomed back if voters overturn Brexit ' Guardian

[Whyperion]

Corbyn has three/five problems.
1) Insisting on (lack of meaningful restrictions on) immigration, it lost labour the last election, and the intellectual arguement that Yvette Cooper, Hodge and others used when Labour were in govt on 'better integration' just does not appeal to about 55% of the English electorate. In my opinion it is Labour's Suicide Note.

2) Despite any kind of being right when he speaks of the members of society being left behind, he appears to be speaking without passion, fails to acknowledge that it was the last labour administration that started it (or failed to stop the treasury , or solve the problem of benefits exceeding the net income from working - already noted as a long-institutional problem from Stanley's historical threads here.

3) That the threat of increased taxes on the 'rich' ( or middle-class strivers ), even if fulfilled never raises enough compared to the odd penny or two on the basic rates of tax Note the treasury is already preparing consultations on the Tax and NI treatments of self-employed vs employed persons (via Tax Simplification Office), and the tax and nhi of in-work employed benefits - mostly employer provided accommodation (pub landlords), cars - where the value based on list price (which already rises as VAT rises ) % is already planned to substantially increase, and could more so to include the likes of cost of car insurance and annual servicing, which are not currently included in benefits values, and the cost of private medical insurance (presumbly to add class A nhi to the value ), treasury has also amended rules to collect tax monthly / pay period from 2017, which is costly to payroll departments, but does gain the treasury an illusory small reduction in Govt Borrowing monthly from May this year ! This level of detail is unlikely to be reversed by any other party manifesto, and missed by most commentators, as was the probate fees increase strangely abandoned (and more likely to remain so if conservatives returned) just as election announced.

4) Related to this is the Shadow Chancellor, both he, and Corbyn have been asked simply questions on radio and TV, which, if competantly answered actually win them points, instead they veer off on irrelevant answers as if they have not understood the question, like a football striker completely missing an open goal.

5) For some reason, a <substantial> amount of would-be Labour voters (and long-standing supporters) 'dont like' Corbyn, as to if this is because they have been manipulated by the media, or do not listen, intellectually, to what Corbyn says I don't know , this is from personal experience when chatting to folk locally to me, not from what polls or otherwise might say.


6) Finally, away from Corbyn, the constant media obession with polls at the last (and previous) election, I think influenced outcomes of voting attendence and voting patterns, should the press and television be banned from reporting and analysing any polls or surveys relating to voter intention and what 'opinion formers' - business leaders , etc , think should be an appropriate party for govt. for UK be - at least without challenging the specifics of manifesto pledges ?

[Stanley]

One of the givens I think we have to accept is that whoever gets in, they have to increase the tax take. Only one thing is certain, the Tories will never address the question of taxing wealth rather than income. Those of us who have read and understood Piketty are convinced that he is right when he advocates a Global Wealth Tax as being the only way forwards.
Did you notice that much was being made yesterday of an IMF upgrading of growth in the UK economy to 2%? Worth noting that twenty years ago this would have been seen as unacceptably low as it doesn't enable the economy to increase annually to accommodate increasing demands.

[Stanley]

Read THIS and give it a bit of thought. I think that Guy Verhofstadt is spot on and it saddens me that the most reliable assessment of the reasons for our snap election are most clearly explained by a politician in the EU. I like his description of the major factor behind the election is a 'cat fight' inside the Tory Party, the same could be said about the referendum also. The conclusion I came to a few days ago is stronger still, that the Tories have consistently ignored the real problems in the UK and have added to them by policies that are more oriented to holding power than principled politics. This is a terrible indictment of our system and worth thinking about. My question is "Who is campaigning on truth and who is doing it out of self interest". Go figure!!

[Tizer]

I mentioned Verhofstadt back in December; he's an Anglophile and knows Britain well. I noted then:
I've read that when David Davis heard that he'd be dealing with Verhofstadt he referred to him as `the Devil'. When he made his first official visit to the Belgian's office Verhofstadt welcomed him with the words "Welcome to Hell!".
Richard gave us a `heads up' on Verhostadt: LINK

While May promises to stop energy companies raising prices unfairly for consumers, what does Corbyn do? He promises 4 extra Bank Holidays. It's time he gave us an effective opposition, not Bank Holidays. I'm afraid New Labour is now beginning to look attractive compared with Corbyn Labour. The BBC news web page has the following:
...the Times has an interview with a Labour insider - Mr Corbyn's former communications and strategy adviser Harry Fletcher - who tells the paper the Labour leader "struggles to cope" with the demands of front line politics, saying the atmosphere in his office is "fraught, tense and unhappy". He says there was "no schedule, few team meetings", and describes how one day tens of thousands of emails to Mr Corbyn were discovered which had never been read.

[PanBiker]

Nominations opened on Friday and close today for Labour PPC's, this applies to existing MP's requiring endorsement, vacant seats due to retirement and also any other CLP without a Labour candidate. For expediency due to the snap election, normal selection processes and hustings have had to be abandoned. All candidates will be selected and endorsed by the NEC.