OneGuyFromBarlick

Here's an example of why you can't simply rush in with a big infection test regime but have to take the time to evaluate the tests carefully beforehand. In this American example the false negative rate for 5 different tests was 0, 1.8, 3.5, 11 and 15%. Using those with 11 and 15% would potentially cause a catastrophic spread of the covid virus. These are only a few of the many tests, so scientists and medics are faced with having to check them all to be sure they work satisfactorily. And if you claim that any fail the evaluation you're then faced with demands from the manufacturers to do the tests again or in a different way.
`False Negatives in Quick COVID-19 Test Near 15 Percent: Study' LINK

Captain Tom got a Spitfire and Hurricane flypast today for his 100th birthday.

I got another text from NHSBT this morning asking me not to rock up to early to my session this afternoon. They are trying to use a "just in time" model. No hot brews after donations at the moment as they encourage folk to hang about. Cold refreshments and the biscuits and crisps still available for the sugar hit.

Tizer wrote: ↑30 Apr 2020, 09:24 Here's an example of why you can't simply rush in with a big infection test regime but have to take the time to evaluate the tests carefully beforehand. In this American example the false negative rate for 5 different tests was 0, 1.8, 3.5, 11 and 15%. Using those with 11 and 15% would potentially cause a catastrophic spread of the covid virus. These are only a few of the many tests, so scientists and medics are faced with having to check them all to be sure they work satisfactorily. And if you claim that any fail the evaluation you're then faced with demands from the manufacturers to do the tests again or in a different way.
`False Negatives in Quick COVID-19 Test Near 15 Percent: Study' LINK

Again Tiz, excellent article. Part of peoples beliefs have come from journalists who have little scientific knowledge constantly criticising decisions made by the Uk team and asking why we haven’t done what other countries do, and not believing the answer. Then creating their own headlines pushing their own opinion.

Sue wrote: ↑30 Apr 2020, 11:49 Part of peoples beliefs have come from journalists who have little scientific knowledge constantly criticising decisions made by the Uk team and asking why we haven’t done what other countries do, and not believing the answer. Then creating their own headlines pushing their own opinion.

Spot on Sue, I've reproduced this over in Facebook land, not that the 'sheep' will take it in.

Question least likely to be asked at the daily briefing -

"Minister what would you suggest is the best thing that we from the media can do to help the Government and the people, in this - the worst crisis since WW II ? "

I think this lady makes the point better than I can.

Journalism

Tripps wrote: ↑30 Apr 2020, 14:19 Question least likely to be asked at the daily briefing -

"Minister what would you suggest is the best thing that we from the media can do to help the Government and the people, in this - the worst crisis since WW II ? "

I think this lady makes the point better than I can.

Journalism

Thanks Tripps.

A link to a superb article, Tripps, I agree with everything Lily says. It's what I would want to say but she's much more eloquent at it!

Here is something else to keep in mind. Scientists are especially thin on the ground in two areas of our lives - politics and journalism.

Tizer wrote: ↑30 Apr 2020, 16:08

Here is something else to keep in mind. Scientists are especially thin on the ground in two areas of our lives - politics and journalism.

How true, perhaps because people don’t like the truth its not sensational enough!

Big Kev wrote: ↑30 Apr 2020, 14:02

Sue wrote: ↑30 Apr 2020, 11:49 Part of peoples beliefs have come from journalists who have little scientific knowledge constantly criticising decisions made by the Uk team and asking why we haven’t done what other countries do, and not believing the answer. Then creating their own headlines pushing their own opinion.

Spot on Sue, I've reproduced this over in Facebook land, not that the 'sheep' will take it in.

Oh heck!

It's all too complicated for my little brain. I find that things are a lot happier when I am in the shed or in bed,,,, The current situation is certainly having one effect on me, curing me of any interest in Westminster politics, it has nothing to do with real life.

i have never regarded politics as reality!

Some used to be Sue but what we have at the moment is pathetic. I have lost patience....

As if by magic the government are about to announce today that they have hit the target of 100,000 Covid19 tests a day! As one virologist commented, this has no bearing whatsoever on the spread of the virus unless it is accompanied with rigorous contact tracing. At this rate anyway it will take just short of two years to test everyone in the country which was another target mentioned yesterday.

Sue wrote: ↑30 Apr 2020, 21:08

Big Kev wrote: ↑30 Apr 2020, 14:02

Sue wrote: ↑30 Apr 2020, 11:49 Part of peoples beliefs have come from journalists who have little scientific knowledge constantly criticising decisions made by the Uk team and asking why we haven’t done what other countries do, and not believing the answer. Then creating their own headlines pushing their own opinion.

Spot on Sue, I've reproduced this over in Facebook land, not that the 'sheep' will take it in.

Oh heck!

I didn't mention your name

People keep banging on about the virus reproductive rate 'R' get it down to below '1' and the pandemic will start to retreat. This comes with its own problems. First the rate can never really be identified at a specific time. Taking a very simple explanation.
If there are 1000 people and one person appears with the virus the chances of him bumping into someone available to catch it is very high R is well more than 1. Lockdown 990 people the chances of him passing it on are low R less than one. Release 500 from lockdown his chances go up. R bigger than 1. So up and down it goes like a Yo-Yo until lots of people have contracted it 'herd immunity' and with everyone now in the open the chances remain very low. The sad thing is that without a vaccination if you are over 80 years old then the mortality rate is currently 10%. What is one to do? The governments advice is keep away and keep safe. About the best advice they could possibly give.

I think the calculation of the R factor is possibly a little more complex on the mathematical modelling where they build in all sorts of factors as you suggest.They did mention weeks ago, some of the things built in such as the percentage of people who would ignore the lockdown rules. It turned out to be a lower % than expected. I think all anyone can do is follow the advice given which in itself is based on other pandemics. As we all know this one is not quite the same. Science and maths cannot predict everything only the worse and best case scenarios. Though if journalists are to be believed, everything can be controlled and forecast! Epidemiologists , immunologists, virologists indeed most of the biological professions follow patterns but when you are dealing with living things , although a virus is not technically alive ( enter A level and degree examination questions) these observations and patterns do not always produce perfect rules. Life has a way of ensuring survival of the fittest, even humans with pandemics. Thats the Biologist in me speaking, ( enter another A level and degree question )

Plaques, don't get too hung up on `R'. It's not meant for use with individuals or small numbers but for large populations. Leave it to the epidemiologists who know how to use it. You'll only cause yourself more grief otherwise!

Of course you are both right. The 'R' factor is not a simple binomial, Either, Or. equation but has loads of other factors in it not least the behavioral response of people under different conditions. The experts can only recommend certain actions to nudge people in the right direction then see what happens. Meanwhile in the swamp of what we call economy there's another bunch of experts pulling in a different direction looking at profits and sustaining jobs. At some point the two will have to come together where in my opinion the 'R' value will take a back seat. As far as the old and vulnerable people go this will leave them in the limbo of lockdown for some considerable time. Why we have to go through all the depressing numbers game and who is to blame for what when none of it makes the slightest difference except to depress people further I don't know.

Leaving aside any consideration of 'R' factors or any other statistical matters, "The sad thing is that without a vaccination if you are over 80 years old then the mortality rate is currently 10%. What is one to do? The governments advice is keep away and keep safe. About the best advice they could possibly give." this gem from P is what grabbed me and until someone persuades me otherwise it is what I will be doing. That includes cancer treatment at hospital as my belief is that the danger from the virus for me is more than from a slow growing cancer. I feel fine and don't see any problem isolating myself until there is a vaccine. I reckon that is at least 18 months.....
Question is, to pass the time should I smoke the pipe tobacco I have in stock? It's what my friends are recommending and is a hell of a temptation! (I haven't cracked yet but why burden myself with efforts of will power like this...?)

Stanley wrote: ↑01 May 2020, 11:57
Question is, to pass the time should I smoke the pipe tobacco I have in stock? It's what my friends are recommending and is a hell of a temptation! (I haven't cracked yet but why burden myself with efforts of will power like this...?)

NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Whether you smoke it or just throw it away the money has already been spent and you are not going to get any extra value by using your stock. Sell it if you can. Your health is more important than smoking just for the sake of it. If you smoke it and then carry on smoking it will cost you a lot more!
I stopped when I was 30 and have never had one drag since then.
DON'T SMOKE IT!!!!!!!!!!!!

I would say that your friends aren't really friends if they are encouraging you to take up smoking again just to get rid of the stock of tobacco you hold. This looks like a case where bulk buying has unfortunately come back to bite you. In my view you should have dumped all the ephemera and means to smoke when you made the decision to stop. Would not be as much of a temptation then.

Too late China and Ian. I have cracked. Feeling ashamed at the moment but that will pass. Don't worry I shall be watching the effects!
Don't be too hard on my friends either, they have their own problems. We were all sold a bum bill of goods all those years ago. I know people have strong feelings about smoking but be kind to me, it's a hell of a thing breaking 80 years of addiction. I haven't that many years left, do I want this craving looming over me? That in itself is a health risk. So be gentle with me..... all I want to do is be content.....
Just had word from the kids and they understand.

Oh Stanley, Stanley, Stanley... no judgement, just feeling for you and hoping that your resuming smoking doesn’t affect your health. Your body would have done a lot of rejuvenation in this short time. Being yourself, staying calm and content , has to be good for you as well.

Stanley wrote: ↑01 May 2020, 12:54 We were all sold a bum bill of goods all those years ago.

No different to anyone else though Stanley but there is nowt as sanctimonious as an ex smoker so I will not preach, you are a big boy and make your own decisions. You were doing so well though.

Can I please ask that you don't make any posts about the positive effects of pipe tobacco as you have done in the past. This flies in the face of all the scientific evidence to the contrary.

My Dad gave up smoking then he smoked a pipe. Eventually he gave up smoking a pipe. For months he just sucked it and cleaned it out, then he started eating sherbet lemons. He liked to crunch them to release the sherbet ( so do I ) Mum said smoking was a quieter vice! When he died we put a jar of sherbet lemons in his coffin!