CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

[Tizer]

The flooded homes and farms here have been in deep water (literally) for about 10 weeks now. The flood waters started to recede on some of the moors yesterday as the Dutch pumps began to have some effect but there is still danger because they now have to open sluices upstream and this could flood other properties downstream if they haven't got the calculations right. A lady has died in one of the local villages after a heart attack - the ambulance was sent on the wrong route and couldn't get through the floods. If it had come from the south instead of the north it wouldn't have had any trouble. The village isn't flooded, just has roads blocked on one side, like our village. There's lots of support now being given to flood victims from all kinds of organisations but it'll be a long haul for these unfortunate people. One of them who was flooded last year had his insurance premium raised to £5000.

[Stanley]

And if we are to believe reports, the insurance companies are beginning to find reasons in the small print for refusing to pay out even if you are insured for 'floods'. They put their 'caring face' on when appearing on the media but when it gets down to paying out they revert to type.

[Stanley]

Those Pesky Scientists have been at it again! See this LINK for news of the latest scientific opinion on climate change, its progress and causes.

[Tizer]

The report can be downloaded from the Royal Society web site here:
http://royalsociety.org/policy/projects ... ce-causes/

[Tizer]

Once they read the BBC News we can expect climate change deniers to rush out and say that this new research shows that change is not occurring. The real story is that the effects of these aerosols are already taken account of in climate models and therefore the new work doesn't change scientists' views on the existence and causes of climate change. The new work simply provides a better understanding of the mechanism by which the aerosols form. There are many sources of aerosols and one of the most abundant is the algae in the oceans which release a chemical that leads to the formation of clouds.

Smell of forest pine can limit climate change
BBC News, 28 Feb 2014
New research suggests a strong link between the powerful smell of pine trees and climate change. Scientists say they've found a mechanism by which these scented vapours turn into aerosols above boreal forests. These particles promote cooling by reflecting sunlight back into space and helping clouds to form.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-26340038

The story in the scientific journal Nature:
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v5 ... 13032.html

[hartley353]

Not of interest to this denier Tizer. The other type of aerosol from which we banned its past propellant is more of interest. since the banning of said propellant and the healing of the ozone layer, the climate change seems to be altering from that predicted by the scientists. Take a look at those figures is that why we are having a period of cooling.

[Stanley]

"Not of interest to this denier Tizer."
That about sums it up!
Later I came across this in Bob's Bit for the day about Montaigne the French philosopher. I think it is pertinent. "In broad, his conclusion was that he did not, could not, know enough to be absolutely certain about anything, and that (therefore) the best course was to keep his mind sharp, his eyes and ears open, question everthing and be ready to rethink anything." Not bad advice!

[hartley353]

Perhaps Montaigne was an absinthe drinker, there can be no progress without certainty.

[Stanley]

See this LINK for a report on the mitigating affects of offshore wind farms in hurricane conditions.

[Bruff]

''there can be no progress without certainty''.

Not sure about that. 'Certainty' if anything could encourage rank ignorance. We have been 'certain' of many things - the movement of the heavens, the healing power of leeches, the structure of the atom, the universal applicability of Newton's Laws. But our understanding has moved on (if one accepts that it's moved on as there may be some who believe in the healing power of leeches, or that quantum mechanics is not explanatory)

Before those irritatingly uncertain people came along and questioned matters, those most certain among us felt the night sky was simply God's benevolent shroud and the stars His little pinpricks tantalising us with a glimpse of His cellestial heaven beyond.

I am struggling to think of how 'certainty' could lead to progress to be honest. Can someone help me?

Richard Broughton

[hartley353]

''there can be no progress without certainty''.

Not sure about that. 'Certainty' if anything could encourage rank ignorance. We have been 'certain' of many things - the movement of the heavens, the healing power of leeches, the structure of the atom, the universal applicability of Newton's Laws. But our understanding has moved on (if one accepts that it's moved on as there may be some who believe in the healing power of leeches, or that quantum mechanics is not explanatory)

Before those irritatingly uncertain people came along and questioned matters, those most certain among us felt the night sky was simply God's benevolent shroud and the stars His little pinpricks giving us the glimpse of His cellestial heaven beyond.

I am struggling to think of how 'certainty' could lead to progress to be honest. Can someone help me?

Richard Broughton

Try night classes.

[Bruff]

Yes, thanks. Very useful. I was after a bit more though as at face value it's hard to see how night classes would help me.

Can I quote Feynman?

''The scientist has a lot of experience with ignorance and doubt and uncertainty, and this experience is of very great importance, I think. When a scientist doesn’t know the answer to a problem, he is ignorant. When he has a hunch as to what the result is, he is uncertain. And when he is pretty darn sure of what the result is going to be, he is in some doubt. We have found it of paramount importance that in order to progress we must recognize the ignorance and leave room for doubt. Scientific knowledge is a body of statements of varying degrees of certainty– some most unsure, some nearly sure, none absolutely certain.''

What I was after was a refutation of this view, which I touched on albeit far, far less eloquently. I would also argue this applies not just to scientists as progress can occur in many fields such as the arts.

Richard Broughton

[hartley353]

Thought I had gone back in time then Bruff, and I was enjoying a glass of wine with Rene Descartes, whilst listening to his ramblings. This all sounds so familiar to his First Meditation on what can be called into doubt. Is he compulsive reading for scientists. Lots of men of science must get run over when they step off the pavement without the certainty of Knowing it is safe to do so.

[plaques]

Feynman biographies and lectures are among my favourite reads. He always maintained that a fact was only right until the next discovery proved it wrong. However, he often said that the really original thoughts came from artists which didn't depend on previous work to produce something genuinely original. In the overall context of climate change the probability debate is still ongoing but appears to be firming up all the time.

[Bruff]

Apologies, my mistake. I was interpreting the contention that progress comes from certainty in rather more complex areas than progressing from one side of the road to the other. Though on reflection, there are a heck of a lot of questions you ask yourself whilst you weigh up the certainty with which you'll get from said side to the other safely. Which then thinking about it again, begs the question whether one can ever have absolute certainty as to your safety in crossing the road. Or put another way, can you achieve zero risk?

Richard Broughton

[Stanley]

Richard, stop banging your head against the wall. For what it's worth, I am almost certain you are right...... Jimmy Reid agrees with you as well, "Beware of certitude" one of my favourite quotations, that's why it's in my signature. A prime example of misuse of certainty is Nial Ferguson, he asserts his historical theories in such a way as to brook no disagreement. As for crossing the road, far too complicated for any certainty. I often wonder how many decisions I made in my millions of miles on the road when I was driving..... Thinking along similar lines a man once told me that nobody could have any conception what a large number like 94 million miles to the Sun actually meant. I told him to imagine the white lines and cat's eyes coming up under your wheels in millions of miles of driving. How many decisions per cat's eye? Did I get them all right?

[hartley353]

Stanley how certain are you that your fears of certidude are correct? You only ever speak in others words do you doubt your own.

[Stanley]

"You only ever speak in others words...."
Really?

[Tripps]

I was wrong once - I thought I'd made a mistake, and I hadn't.

[Tizer]

It's curious that this story doesn't mention `fracking' which is just another form of fossil fuel!

'Carbon bubble' threatens stock markets, say MPs
The world's financial markets could be creating a "carbon bubble" by over valuing the fossil fuel assets of large companies say MPs. Much of this coal and oil may have to be left in the ground to combat climate change, according to the Environmental Audit Committee (EAC)....A number of studies in recent years have warned that stock markets around the world have overvalued companies with large holdings of coal, oil and gas. The problem stems from the fact that countries including the UK agreed at a UN meeting in Mexico in 2010 to limit global temperature rises to 2C. To achieve this, economists including Sir Nicholas Stern have calculated that between 60 and 80% of existing reserves of fossil fuels will need to remain in the ground, unburned. Today's report from the House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee (EAC) reiterates these warnings.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-26455763

[Stanley]

Reports this morning that the start of this year's El Nino has been detected off the coast of S America. (LINK)

[Tizer]

The water level here is up and down like a yoyo as the pumps are switched on or off depending on the amount of rain, the height of the tide and the effect on properties and farms, but the main roads are still blocked. To get to the doctor, dentist or library is a 35 mile round trip instead of the usual 10 miles and the plumber, electrician, builder etc don't want to come if we needed them. So it's not just the people with flooded homes who are affected, although obviously they are much worse off than we are. I heard one man saying about his flooded house "It's not so bad now, the waters have gone down from 8 foot to 4 foot". It's now ten weeks since the floods began and local businesses are suffering from as serious lack of trade.

[Stanley]

The length of time it is taking for the excess water to drain away is the best example you could have for the bad maintenance of the watercourses and rivers. As simple as a blocked plughole in your kitchen sink. Forget all the counter-arguments raised by those clever politicians and environment 'experts'. Basically, your 'plughole' is suffering from a 60% blockage. I can hear all those dead Romans and monks cheering that opinion, that's how they dried you out in the first place!

[Tizer]

Yesterday afternoon, from an upstairs window, I could see one of our neighbours paddling his canoe through the flooded fields!

[Stanley]

What is the opinion, based on local knowledge, about how long it will take for things to get back to normal?