OneGuyFromBarlick

Tizer wrote: ↑01 May 2020, 10:20 Plaques, don't get too hung up on `R'. It's not meant for use with individuals or small numbers but for large populations. Leave it to the epidemiologists who know how to use it. You'll only cause yourself more grief otherwise!

I said the same thing to a friend of mine the other day. A very clever lady but not a scientist who has read everything there is to read but takes every article and every piece of research as if is the norm. I told her not to get hung up on the details. Just follow the official advice as best she can . I really trust the epidemiologist, he knows his stuff and explains it well. And now for something completely different. Garden railways!

PanBiker wrote: ↑01 May 2020, 09:10 As if by magic the government are about to announce today that they have hit the target of 100,000 Covid19 tests a day! As one virologist commented, this has no bearing whatsoever on the spread of the virus unless it is accompanied with rigorous contact tracing. At this rate anyway it will take just short of two years to test everyone in the country which was another target mentioned yesterday.

Yes but the journalists kept asking for it, now they will have to think of another question to go and on about and divert peoples and the governments attention from the real issues

I heard that alcohol, heat, humidity and now sunlight all kill the virus. If you see me dancing naked, in my front garden, just ignore me I'm conducting important medical research. Or training to be a journalist

Big Kev wrote: ↑01 May 2020, 17:08 I heard that alcohol, heat, humidity and now sunlight all kill the virus. If you see me dancing naked, in my front garden, just ignore me I'm conducting important medical research. Or training to be a journalist

Let us know the outcome ...please !

So many things kill it! Nothing would surprise me. Try leaping over a bonfire while dancing Kev.
I must be doing something right, I have escaped it so far! Mind you I spoke to Susan over the back yard gate last night when she delivered fish and chips from Kelbrook after queueing an hour to get them! I washed my hands after unpacking them.... She looks very well and is starting work again at the care home next week after a negative test for her and Mick earlier in the week at Leeds. Now, as well as calling them heroes, would be a good time to give them a proper wage and fund their PPE properly. I wonder whether this will ever happen or will it just get forgotten like so many other things. What's the betting we shall still be hearing criticism of funding of Social Care and the NHS in 12 months.....

Is it a privately owned care home or local authority?

Both work in the private sector. Thornton Hill is an Anchor Home and Mick works mainly direct for private clients who have very demanding situations. I shan't go into details but believe me Kev it isn't a job either of us would touch with a barge pole. They both deserve far better treatment and wages.

Stanley wrote: ↑02 May 2020, 07:10 Both work in the private sector. Thornton Hill is an Anchor Home and Mick works mainly direct for private clients who have very demanding situations. I shan't go into details but believe me Kev it isn't a job either of us would touch with a barge pole. They both deserve far better treatment and wages.

Unfortunately the private sector is all about profit. I know how much these places charge, I've paid less to stay in five star hotels. The staff should have the best, and plentiful, equipment and salaried way above what they currently receive. The management need a good shake up...

Stanley wrote: ↑01 May 2020, 11:57 Leaving aside any consideration of 'R' factors or any other statistical matters, "The sad thing is that without a vaccination if you are over 80 years old then the mortality rate is currently 10%. What is one to do? The government's advice is keep away and keep safe. About the best advice they could possibly give." this gem from P is what grabbed me and until someone persuades me otherwise it is what I will be doing.

Don't take statements on face value Stanley, give them the benefit of your analytical powers! The mortality rate of 10% is a population average (the population of over-80s), not your own personal predicted value. That population includes a lot of people who are much less fit and much more more vulnerable than you - many obese or with dementia or both and others with a variety of problems. Although 10% is quoted there will be a wide range of mortality rates in that population.

As for your return to smoking, I've never smoked and could take a self-righteous view but instead I believe you've made the right decision. I haven't smoked but I have lung problems and if I get the covid virus my prognosis would be bad and I might then not have long to live. I should have been enjoying myself on holiday in St Ives this week but instead, like you, I'm in lockdown. We can both say sod it, let's enjoy life. After all, you see old blokes taking up parachuting or climbing mountains - I've been reading about one older than you who's been having a go at everything he can find that's dangerous! The pipe tobacco is a comforter for you in these difficult times - it's justified for your mental wellbeing even if it takes some toll on your physical health.

Big Kev wrote: ↑01 May 2020, 17:08 I heard that alcohol, heat, humidity and now sunlight all kill the virus. If you see me dancing naked, in my front garden, just ignore me I'm conducting important medical research. Or training to be a journalist

Don't forget to inject the bleach!

Tizer wrote: ↑02 May 2020, 09:46 Don't take statements on face value Stanley, give them the benefit of your analytical powers! The mortality rate of 10% is a population average (the population of over-80s), not your own personal predicted value. That population includes a lot of people who are much less fit and much more more vulnerable than you - many obese or with dementia or both and others with a variety of problems. Although 10% is quoted there will be a wide range of mortality rates in that population.

I hope nobody is thinking that I'm peddling misinformation, The 10% (over 80's) is the figures is given for this first wave of infections. The most vulnerable will obviously be the first to succumb to infection. This figure will also include those who were exposed prior to the lockdown in a time period before the general public and the experts realized to true nature of the beast. Future rates may be much less than 10% but remember this 10% is the 'last drop' result where survivors may suffer extreme illnesses and long lasting problems. The advice still stands 'The government's advice is keep away and keep safe.

Thanks for the kind words about my Fall from Grace Tiz! It's working out very well, You would be amazed how seldom I pick me pipe up but it's enough to get rid of that terrible craving. I am a very happy Bunny! (Have you seen my seismology post?)
P, Don't fret, it wasn't the 10% figure that triggered my response but the fact that Covid19 would almost certainly be a serious matter for me and so I shall be practising social distance until there is a vaccine as that's the only safe course I can see at the moment. Susan and I have already worked out an exchange over the back gate and we are working on a socially responsible walk through Valley Gardens with Jess and Kahara in his pram.
We shall find a way through this with the least possible risk. Evolution to survive! Darwin would have approved I think.

Why do politicians and commentators keep talking about 'defeating' Coronavirus. We can't 'defeat' it! All we can do is learn to survive it and though we keep being promised progress on that path nothing concrete has emerged yet. Flu-like infections were part of the 'benefits' we used to take to foreign lands when we went exploring and if the locals were vulnerable they had what to them was a pandemic. There is a certain irony in the fact that they seem to be returning the favour!

Very amusing short video,,Virus.

That hits the nail on the head P.

Try your luck.

I see an amazing discovery has been made, people in deprived areas suffering funding cuts are more likely to contract and be fatally affected by Covid19.
I seem to remember Seebohm Rowntree coming to that conclusion in the 19th century.....

I thought the reference was deprived areas. I think it will be more related to population density than funding cuts.

We shall see Sue.

As density is a major issue, just look where the virus is concentrated it will be difficult to identify other specific issues

Sue wrote: ↑04 May 2020, 08:16 As density is a major issue, just look where the virus is concentrated it will be difficult to identify other specific issues

That was the point I tried making with Australia and NZ...

Just one of the many drugs being tried out for activity against covid-19. It's a modified use of interferon beta, a natural anti-viral in humans. Sue, like me, will see it as a `blast from the past', it has been in use for a very long time.
`UK hospital trials new Coronavirus treatment drug' LINK

Susan and I have worked out our own anti-isolation measures! Cheered me up no end and she has the toys for Kahara that have been sat in the cupboard for years..... That's another small person who will approve!

Tizer wrote: ↑04 May 2020, 09:02 It's a modified use of interferon beta,

Tell me about it. . . .

I won't go into detail, but this drug isn't new to me. They called it Beta Interferon then. I've seen it all before with another illness. Carefully placed 'news items' revealing the new 'miracle' treatment. Then naturally the NHS saying you couldn't have it due to cost. Then me, harrassing Radio and TV stations who showed the 'miracles' and the NHS officials who wouldn't fund it.

Eventually it was allowed, after public pressure - and a deal with the drug companies essentially 'no win no fee'.

Result -in a word - disaster.

There is much good in pharmaceutical companies, but they need watching. I recall they didn't abandon thalidomide, but just marketed it in different parts of the world for different conditions.

Tizer wrote: ↑04 May 2020, 09:02 Just one of the many drugs being tried out for activity against covid-19. It's a modified use of interferon beta, a natural anti-viral in humans. Sue, like me, will see it as a `blast from the past', it has been in use for a very long time.
`UK hospital trials new Coronavirus treatment drug' LINK

I do Tiz, I seem to recall it was very expensive too.

Big Kev wrote: ↑04 May 2020, 08:52

Sue wrote: ↑04 May 2020, 08:16 As density is a major issue, just look where the virus is concentrated it will be difficult to identify other specific issues

That was the point I tried making with Australia and NZ...

And me when I said it is almost impossible to compare different countries ie density, seasons, age of population, environmentally related illnesses, industrialised. They all play a factor but density is very key to its spread