CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

[Stanley]

See THIS for a report of the leaked Papal encyclical on climate change. There have been immediate protests from conservative Catholics in the US who object to the truth no matter where it originates.

[Tizer]

I note the report says: "The draft is not a detailed scientific analysis of the global warming crisis. Instead, it is the pope’s reflection of humanity’s God-given responsibility as custodians of the Earth." Unfortunately the religious right in the US, and especially the Republicans in Washington, believe that as custodians of the Earth they can do what they like with it.

[Bruff]

The problem the Republican Right (and much of the Right here) have with climate change is no so much the science more the solutions to the problem. Tackling climate change requires as an absolutely key lever sustained and significant intervention from Government using all the tools at its disposal, tax rises and tax breaks, meaningful targeted regulation, subsidies and so on. Realising this and facilitating this runs counter to every supposed self-evident truth(s) this part of the Right has held dear since mother’s knee. It would require acknowledging that ‘Government’ has a role, and ‘big’ Government at that. The likes of Lord Lawson here and likely Republican Presidential candidate and Senator (and catholic!) Rick Santorum over there simply cannot bring themselves to admit this, and so in effect admit the weakness in their whole political philosophy. Lawson’s sniping at the science is simply cover for this.

Richard Broughton

[Stanley]

Richard, very perceptive and absolutely right. My friends in the US give exactly that analysis to explain the seemingly mad opinions they endorse about this and Creationism. Possibly one of the biggest Cunning Wheezes ever. Add the fact that 'Big government' and 'Socialism' are anathema and there is more cash to redistribute upwards....

[Tizer]

They're beginning to accept in India and Pakistan that the increase in extreme weather events is likely to be caused by climate change. LINK
This comes as more than 1,000 people have died in Pakistan in the worst heatwave in three decades. The BBC report says:

Scientists in the region say climate change has certainly intensified heatwaves in the same way it has accelerated other extreme weather events including floods, droughts, wildfires, among others. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the UN body on climate science, has long warned that heatwaves would become increasingly extreme in South Asia. "Warming has occurred, at a country scale, across most of South Asia over the 20th century and into the 2000s," reads the fifth assessment report of the IPCC. "There were more temperature extremes," the report said, putting this statement under a 'high confidence' heading. "Heatwave frequency has increased since the middle of the 20th century in large parts of Asia." Scientists say heatwaves have not been given due attention despite that knowledge. "And that is because it is a slow evolving scenario unlike other fast events like tropical cyclone or flooding," says Qamar Zaman Chaudhry, a climate scientist and special adviser to the World Meteorological Organisation for Asia. "So, when you have something that evolves slowly, it is not addressed urgently or with seriousness. "This has been the case with heatwaves in our region."

[Stanley]

And it's the 'dramatic' events that are newsworthy and get the coverage.A 'few' more people dying in a heatwave doesn't cut it.....

[Stanley]

See THIS for a BBC account of the report issued yesterday by the Committee on Climate Change warning the government that time has run out and action must be taken. Any bets as to how this will impact government policy or spending? When we get a repetition of extreme weather events causing damage will anyone remember this warning? Or will the government say that 'lessons have been learned' and 'everything possible is being done'. We could write the press release for them now......

[Tizer]

This is more to do with pollution than climate change but it still falls into the category of `looking after the only planet that we've got'. I like the way the New Yorkers will often simply `get on with it' instead of faffing around!

`Why New York banned polystyrene foam'
New York City is joining a growing group of cities in banning Expandable Polystyrene Foam (EPS). Adam Harris explains what makes this material so worrisome to environmentalists - and appealing to businesses. Starting today, single-use EPS products including cups, bowls, plates, takeout containers and trays and packing peanuts are not allowed to be possessed, sold, or offered in New York City. Companies have six months to comply or face a fine. "These products cause real environmental harm and have no place in New York City. We have better options," said New York Mayor Bill de Blasio in a release about the ban.
Full BBC article here: LINK

[Stanley]

Butts was littered with polystyrene packing beads yesterday.....
Hottest July day ever recorded yesterday.... (LINK) An extreme event?

[Stanley]

See THIS

Yet another warning about rising CO2 levels and acidification of the oceans......

[Stanley]

The ROCKY FIRE grows bigger in N California. Reinforces Obama's message about global warming and climate change....

[Bruff]

Disgraceful programme on R4 this morning, as part of the ‘What’s the point of…..’ series. This was ‘What’s the point of the Met Office’ and was essentially a climate change-denying hatchet job by world-respected climate scientist, step forward the Daily Mail’s theatre critic Quentin Letts. The usual suspects were wheeled out, from the idiotic wing of the Tory Party mainly, the terminally gormless Peter Lilley and the slow-witted Graham Stringer. Famous brother Piers Corbyn, yes that Corbyn, was wheeled out to witter on about his forecasting techniques being better than the Met Office (they aren’t), as well as assorted farmers banging on about how you ‘just know’ when you get up what the day’s to bring. Oh and the Tax Payers Alliance too for some reason (I think they wanted the Met Office privatising). Plus the Met Office of course, but no scientists.

Next week in ‘What’s the point of….?’, Daily Mail theatre critic Quentin Letts asks what the point of neuroscience where we hear from the cunning-woman and trepanning practitioner Mother Caldwell from Diss, as well as other idiots.

Richard Broughton

[Tripps]

Disgraceful? I thought it was quite interesting.

No scientists? The 'terminally gormless' Peter Lilley said he studied physics at Cambridge - in fact it seems to have been Natural Sciences, which I guess includes physics, and the 'slow witted' Graham Stringer' has a degree in Chemistry from Sheffield University. Piers Corbyn has a First in Physics from Imperial College London.

Next week he is looking at the reserve forces. I look forward to it.

[Tizer]

I saw the title ‘What’s the point of the Met Office’ in the listings but didn't know anything more about it, so I didn't record the programme. Perhaps it's good I didn't, it might have been bad for my blood pressure. I didn't know Piers Corbyn is Jeremy Corbyn's brother, but then I expect JC wouldn't want to bandy about that information. I wonder what PC's prediction is for who will become leader of the Labour Party?

[Bruff]

I don’t think a first degree in science makes you a scientist, just as a first degree in history or economics makes you a historian or economist. Get a PhD and then you can put your L-plates on and 10 years or so down the line of hard post-doctoral graft you can then start to call yourself a scientist. That said, you don’t need to be a climate scientist to understand what climate scientists conclude from their research and agree with it. But I think you do need rather more than a first degree in physics obtained some years back if you argue climate scientists don’t know what they’re talking about and be taken seriously.

To be fair the name-calling was unnecessary and uncalled for so apologies for that. But I do get angry with the likes of Lilley who simply assert things providing no evidence. And as the journalist/writer/critic/all-round clever-clogs Christopher Hitchens said in his Hitchen’s Razor: ‘that which is asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence’. Hence my being admittedly too dismissive of Lilley and Stringer.

Richard Broughton

[Stanley]

Don't apologise too much Richard... I listened to the programme and didn't like the slant of the presentation. There was only one positive contribution, from John Ketley, and he runs a private forecasting firm now. I thought some of the contributors were barking. One interested snippet, one of the farmers used the phrase 'Pride of the Morning' to describe a light morning shower. First time I have heard that since my mother using it.

[Stanley]

News this morning that illustrates the wide ramifications of climate disturbance. The Panama Canal authorities have restricted the draught of ships using the canal because dry weather caused by the current El Nino event has lowered the water level in the lakes at the summit.
Taiwan is having a particularly dangerous typhoon. (LINK)

[Tizer]

It's fascinating how the sea level on the Pacific side of the Panama Canal is 20cm higher than on the Atlantic side. It's partly due to the different densities of water in the two oceans and partly to ocean currents and weather conditions. Water would flow from one side to the other but can't due to the locks in the canal that allow it to cross the mountains. There's more here (see item 3), plus other information on sea levels. LINK

[Tizer]

First it was Pope Francis and now it's Islamic leaders recognising the dangers of climate change. If only we could get the politicians to take a longer term view and accept the facts...
`Islamic call on rich countries to end fossil fuel use' LINK

[Stanley]

Tiz, the doubters will only come round to the truth when it jumps up and punches them on the nose.....

[Stanley]

I see that US researchers have determined that globally, July was the hottest month on record. Nice example of how random the effects of global warming can be. We had one of the coldest Julys I can remember due to the prevalence in our part of the UK of those pesky NW winds!

[Tizer]

And those records go back to 1880. Have a look at the world map on this web page and you can see why we in the UK didn't notice July as being hot. LINK You can see that Britain experienced average temperatures and the North Atlantic beyond our shores was cooler or much cooler. It looks like the equatorial regions of the globe suffered more extra heat than the other regions.

[Stanley]

That's a very clear graphic Tiz. I know that there are always shades of opinion and that nothing can ever be said to be absolutely certain but it seems to me that the response to evidence like that should be at least based on 'worst case'. That is the safe way to proceed. Why is that so obvious to us and not to the policy makers? The only explanation I can offer is that the tardy response is down to those who are focussed only on short term advantage and not long term planning for the future.

[Tizer]

Report in today's Independent newspaper:
`Climate change: 2015 will be the hottest year on record 'by a mile', experts say ' LINK

They predict it will be hotter by a margin perhaps 10x greater than recent `hot' years. The El Nino will be adding to it. It will mean more droughts and more melting glaciers but don't assume it will be hotter everywhere. We're in a transition stage and like many transitions it brings turbulence and instability. Some will see lower temperatures and/or torrential rains. What will we have here in the UK? So many factors are involved no-one can make a reliable prediction other than that the weather will get more extreme. The oceans are being disrupted by heat and acidity and if the Gulf Stream is pushed off course we could see rivers, lakes and coastal waters frozen!

[Stanley]

I think both the scientists and your point about the variability of the consequences is right. We often forget that we are on the same latitude as Labrador and it's only the moderating effect of the warm water of the Gulf Stream that keeps us so temperate. I can remember many years ago fighting my way through snowdrifts to get to Scotland and my first call was on the Mull of Galloway where it was a mild day with bees buzzing around in the brambles at the side of the road. A different world and all down to the Gulf Stream.
Look at our weather in Barlick this summer, the greatest influence has been NW winds and we have had no summer temperatures at all.