OneGuyFromBarlick

We did have exceptionally warm temperatures in Spring though.

We have our seasonal change this morning, the heating season has started!

See THIS for what seems to me to be a very moderate and persuasive report on what is happening at the moment to the climate. These are serious scientists and we would do well to read what they say. Many people believe that we have reached some sort of tipping point and these views do nothing to damage it. How anyone can deny the evidence behind this beats me...
I have been going on about the Jet Stream for years after I experienced its power when I was on a flight from LA to Heathrow which arrived two hours early. The pilot told me it was a record but nobody would be shouting about it. We have just experienced a massive shift in the course of the Jet Stream, last week it was well to the north of us but is now completely opposite and in the south. This is why our weather has swung from near summer to a much colder mode. The fact that the course of the Jet Stream is now being flagged up in the weather forecasts shows how much attention the Met Office is paying to it. It is this, plus changes in ocean currents which could mean that despite the rest of the world warming up we could well experience the opposite and become colder on average.

Have those in power in the USA noticed that (3?) years of drought in California is somewhat causing serious (and costly to rectify) problems?

See THIS for an account of the Arctic Mix expedition whose results have hit the headlines this morning. Fascinating stuff about the complicated interaction between the weather, melt water and undersea turbulence and its effects. The more we learn about these matters, the more we realise what a complicated and finely balanced system supports us. This is the best sort of research, thought provoking, ground-breaking and informative. Money well spent by Scripps Oceanographic I reckon!

Whyperion wrote:Have those in power in the USA noticed that (3?) years of drought in California is somewhat causing serious (and costly to rectify) problems?

I found the Californians to be the most stupid people on the planet when I was there in summer. They go around crying they are short of water and yet are always bragging they have 900 miles of coastline and over 300 days of sunshine. Apparently they don't see how the two things can be used to their advantage. I know that desalination costs money but it works in the middle east so why not there? It's not those in power in the USA that are reticent, it is those in charge of spending and policy at state level in California that are the problem. Meanwhile they borrow steal water from Nevada and Colorado.

Very true China. Places like Palm Springs owe their existence to imported water. Many of the problems with water in the US stem from the concept of 'first dicoverer' having control over the resources they find. This was state and not federal law and due to imperfections in the system was almost always used by the capital holders to their own advantage. Oil was another area where this concept ruled and the rise of the monopolies was the main reason for the Anti-Trust laws. Some progress has been made in public control but the hangover of places like Palm Springs persists. LA depends on the Colorado River for a great proportion of its water.....

They are hoping that the coming El Nino will bring heavy rains and give them a reprieve as it has done in the past, but with climate change there'll come a day when this doesn't work any more.

Mark Carney is worried about climate change as well. Now if the money men see a danger we could see some interesting comments! (LINK)

Yes, and I notice he was speaking at Lloyd's of London, whose boss was on the radio yesterday warning of another disaster on its way - the loss of public trust in business due to all the scams and failure to observe regulations.

I wonder whether the 'Corbyn effect' is contagious? Could we be seeing some rays of light in the gathering gloom?

I see Mark Carney is getting hammered this morning for 'interfering' in matters that don't concern him. really? It looks as though certain heads are being thrust firmly into the sand..... (LINK)

Permafrost warming in parts of Alaska 'is accelerating', BBC News, 22nd October 2015
"One of the world's leading experts on permafrost has told BBC News that the recent rate of warming of this frozen layer of earth is "unbelievable". Prof Vladimir Romanovsky said that he expected permafrost in parts of Alaska would start to thaw by 2070. Researchers worry that methane frozen within the permafrost will be released, exacerbating climate change. The professor said a rise in permafrost temperatures in the past four years convinced him warming was real. Permafrost is perennially frozen soil that has been below zero degrees C for at least two years. It's found underneath about 25% of the northern hemisphere, mainly around the Arctic - but also in the Antarctic and Alpine regions. It can range in depth from one metre under the ground all the way down to 1,500m."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-34540414

Coincidentally, on Tuesday evening I was discussing the dangers of melting permafrost and how in northern China they have been building new foundations under their roads because when the permafrost melts the roads collapse. It was at a meeting in our village hall titled `Make More or Use Less?' and which had three speakers: David Eccles of EDF on nuclear energy; a local lady on her own PV panel and wind turbine installation; and Joe Burlington (former physics and maths teacher) of Somerset Climate Action Group on why we should use less energy. I was impressed by Burlington - probably because he said everything I would have wanted to say but with greater eloquence! Interestingly, even the EDF man agreed that we should try harder to use less energy, it's the quickest and cheapest way of countering climate change. To illustrate some of the problems in our thinking, Burlington used cartoons; one showed a dozen people at sea in a small boat that was beginning to sink and one of them is saying "Well, I'm not going to bail out water if you're not!" Another one showed the boat with its stern down low in the water and people at the bow saying "Well it's not sinking at this end!" The most depressing thing about the meeting was some of the audience, after hearing all the arguments, saying they weren't willing to cut back on energy use.

That cartoon about not sinking at this end goes way back to at least 1916. Here's a more recent example.



Asking people to cut energy use drastically by giving up things is like trying to stuff the genii back in the bottle. How many of would give up heat light or the washing machine. We have built a world on energy and the areas where a difference can be made is profligate use of energy (All those brightly lit city centres), bad use of energy saving (Insulation), inefficient appliances and destructive methods of generation. I have always wondered if the people who object to wind turbines switch off at the mains.... Our only real hope is that technology will get us out of the hole, Nuclear and fusion look like the best bets at the moment. I'm all in favour of Hydro, wave power, wind and tidal generation but there are always so many objections. My personal efforts are to use as little energy as possible. I can do no more....
(We will soon see people festooning their houses with Xmas lights....)
By the way, the first small conical emitters have appeared on the lamp posts on Fernbank Avenue....

See THIS for the latest on Hurricane Patricia which is about to make landfall in Mexico. Reckoned to be the most powerful hurricane ever recorded in the Western hemisphere you can't help wondering about the increasing severity of these events and whether it has any connection to the El Nino event in the Pacific. Previous experience teaches us that these severe events can influence the Atlantic weather and in turn, us in the UK. Worth watching!
(Of course climate change isn't happening according to some....)

The postponements of the programme at the US Grand Prix at Austin, Texas has been blamed on the effects of hurricane Patricia which, even though it has been downgraded in respect of wind speeds is dropping enormous amounts of water on the area. Austin got 3 months worth of rain yesterday.

See THIS account of the World Bank report on the economic cost of climate change and the fact that 100 million people, already poor, could be driven deeper into abject poverty as temperatures rise.

But is anyone out there listening? The human race is too busy staring at smartphones, watching TV, drinking wine, eating too much and trying to avoid email and phone scams. (I'd better stop there before I get start getting cynical )

No, don't stop! In our own small way we are part of the Voice of Reason and collectively will eventually be heard and believed but not before it is too late I fear. In support of that, read THIS for the latest warning that we are half way to possible disaster. Also take note that CO2 levels are rising faster than ever and are at the highest concentration for a million years.... Despite this I predict that too little will be done and too late. I am very sceptical about the human race's ability to survive, Gaia will win out in the end and quietly sit back and recover......

It struck me this morning that when we talk about 'extreme weather events' we are usually thinking of violent weather. We are having warmer night-time temperatures than what we are used to in summer at the moment and to my mind this is just as extreme and event as a spell of particularly bad weather.

There has been a surprising number of sinkholes appearing worldwide in recent months and we have to ask why so many and so widespread? I suspect that the more extreme weather is responsible, leading to greater flows in underground water, more burst pipes (also caused by lack of maintenance and ageing of structures), softening and fluidising of earth, flooding of underground cavities etc.

It's good that most of Barlick is so close to the rock. Mind you, there are places where I could see it happening like the bad ground in Eastwood Bottoms and Havre Park.....

'High impacts' from globally stronger El Nino (BBC web site)
The El Niño weather event is expected to gain in strength before the end of this year, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). In its latest update, the WMO says the 2015 occurrence will be among the three strongest recorded since 1950. Severe droughts and significant flooding in many parts of the world are being attributed to this El Niño. The WMO warn these impacts are likely to increase and this event is now in "uncharted territory".....

"Severe droughts and devastating flooding being experienced throughout the tropics and sub-tropical zones bear the hallmarks of this El Niño, which is the strongest in more than 15 years," said WMO secretary-general Michel Jarraud. The authorities in California are expecting that El Niño will bring extremely wet conditions to the state in the early part of 2016. Sandbags are being stockpiled, storm drains are being cleared and extra staff are being taken on to deal with possible flooding. While stressing that El Niño is not the only factor driving global climate patterns, the WMO says that the implications of the weather system in a warmer world are uncertain. "This event is playing out in uncharted territory. Our planet has altered dramatically because of climate change, the general trend towards a warmer global ocean, the loss of Arctic sea ice and of over a million square km of summer snow cover in the northern hemisphere," said Mr Jarraud. "So this naturally occurring El Niño event and human induced climate change may interact and modify each other in ways which we have never before experienced," he said. "Even before the onset of El Niño, global average surface temperatures had reached new records. El Niño is turning up the heat even further," said Mr Jarraud. LINK

Just for once, some better news about possible sea level rise. See THIS account of the latest research by an international team including Bristol University. Even so, this is a serious rise.

Anyone who lives in the Somerset Levels can tell you how significant a 60cm rise in sea level would be!