Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

[Stanley]

Exactly Sue and you have expressed it better than I did.
How are the pains? I was thinking about you and Dave this morning......

[Marilyn]

Don’t worry about my Dave. He enjoyed his dinner tonight with a glass of Red Wine. And...I note...he is scoffing a few squares of Dark Chocolate as I type. All recovered I would say....

[Pluggy]

My brother and his wife run some care homes and have lost a good number of their residents to Covid19. I've heard the local hospital was turning the residents away when they'd tested positive for the virus. Anecdotal evidence only, I'm not sure whether I buy it. The source has had disagreements with said hospital in the past. Its getting a bit conspiracy theory........

[Whyperion]

BBC2 Horizon Program aired tonight with much of the latest research https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m ... ial-part-2, First cases are thought to be 1st December or possibly earlier according to Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic 17th of November according to articles like this https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... how-report.

Thanks, i was sort of referring to the Horizon programme as I typed, The additional dates confirm to me that something must have been stiring in December , was anything noted in the west, or did the Cov-2 spread mainly as a result of the internal and world wide chinese new year movements ?

[Whyperion]

Adding to Pluggy's post on when the covid -19 as to when the virus first started its worth looking at some of the national statistics on Influenza Like Illnesses, ( ILI ) which have been collected for some years. These include the various types of Flu that affect the respiratory system. Types A,B,C,D with type 'A' being the most serious. The results for week 45 (7 Nov 2019 ) are shown here. Report
These reports include the main areas of infection. Community, ( this includes Care Homes ), Primary care ( GP Practices ), Secondary Care, ( Hospitals ). Also included are the vaccination take up rate ( 94.2% ). In general the incidence of Flu was lower than the normal average. A very comprehensive report which gets harder to find after week 45. ??

I would not worry about govt reporting of community cases, it was fairly obvious something was happening and a quick mental calculation would give rough reasonable figures, but aside from that the main bit still is not protecting care homes. From Horizon it appears that differences in Cov-2 to Cov-1 infectious behaviour and the failure to realise that immunity to coronaviruses generally seem to not produce an immune memory in humans meant that any herd immunity thought was going to be wrong - so was Witty wrong-sided or under-prepared with information to this effect by the start of March ?

What had been happening for the last three years was a downward trend in deaths and death rates in older people generally and people were living longer probably owning to the flu and pnumo vaccinations and a fitter and better cared for elder population and changes in work from heavy manual and reduction in smoking. i presume death and illness from heart conditions may have increased ( I have not looked ) with changes in diet and sedentary work with intermittent stress levels over the past 20 years. - and if working from home is going to be more in use then this may still increase ( this is from a UK only perspective ). I doubt if the level of care-homes costs was a thought in (Cummings?) govt brains to save long term money- we have lost too many bright brains so far ( illness and war take out both equally ). There are some death rate details provisionally to end of Dec 2019 but not all information was in and confirmed.

My main reason for querying dates was, like i think others, i had two heavy colds or flu (Despite jab) with some fever delirium but this passed an internal peak quickly but i felt rough for about 7 to 10 days each time (Dec and Jan), was this Cov-2 or something similar or the normal flu strain missed or just a 'bad cold'? my family, that i barely met , had similar with sickness , but mum only had light effects for a short time so really odd.

[Whyperion]

My brother and his wife run some care homes and have lost a good number of their residents to Covid19. I've heard the local hospital was turning the residents away when they'd tested positive for the virus. Anecdotal evidence only, I'm not sure whether I buy it. The source has had disagreements with said hospital in the past. Its getting a bit conspiracy theory........

this was happening elsewhere in europe and possibly in the uk too. What was the point of the nightingales (distraction and the apperence of activity over effectiveness ?) some thought that DNRs would be pushed too, following the BBC following of Bradford Hospital this does not seem to be how they were working. Actually i am surprised that the care home had its residents tested that fast - the problem seemed to be discharge to care home without testing or 'only if care home had capability to deal with such patients' (and how was that assessed ?)

[Whyperion]

After all old people are non-productive.

i think we found that for our volunteer and community work most of it was run by older people, on pensions- which either subisidise community events or subsidise younger families.

[Tripps]

I've heard the local hospital was turning the residents away

Not a conspiracy theory at all. I can personally vouch for that. On grounds of privacy, I won't give any more detail. I take a particular interest in this matter, and have heard it denied by Ministers at the daily briefings on several occasions - but they all lie don't they?

[Whyperion]

I've heard the local hospital was turning the residents away

Not a conspiracy theory at all. I can personally vouch for that. On grounds of privacy, I won't give any more detail. I take a particular interest in this matter, and have heard it denied by Ministers at the daily briefings on several occasions - but they all lie don't they?

PMQs On care homes, he Johnson) said no one was discharged to a care home without approval from a clinician.

[plaques]

PMQs On care homes, he Johnson) said no one was discharged to a care home without approval from a clinician.

What is the difference between a doctor and a clinician?
Simply put, clinicians are all healthcare providers who deal directly with patients, while physicians are clinicians who focus in a particular specialty involving non-surgical treatment.
A health care provider is a person or company that provides a health care service to you. In other words, your health care provider takes care of you.

Well that's all right then.

[Whyperion]

Did they have someone twisting their arm from behind ?

Johnson told off Starmer for not being positive enough, sounds like china taking action against those who criticise their state, Starmer is hardly in a position to influence outcomes , Johnson is.


Meanwhile give the number of tests done/sent there are about 1% confirmation of postitive cases from those tests (if the reports are statistically correct), which seems low, although i have advocated testing for people in at risk work areas, have not seen the overall new infections for today, but it does seem to indicate that there is less (and it might change) community transmission now occuring, Germany has a step-rise in cases, linked to migrant workers - it seems more the conditions they are living in and working in rather than they are migrants (from Romania)

[Whyperion]

My brother and his wife run some care homes and have lost a good number of their residents to Covid19. I've heard the local hospital was turning the residents away when they'd tested positive for the virus. Anecdotal evidence only, I'm not sure whether I buy it. The source has had disagreements with said hospital in the past. Its getting a bit conspiracy theory........

Quoting from YT comment today

Regards the testing of care home residents.
Two weeks ago (w/c 4/5/20) one of the residents of the care home my Mother-in-Law lives in was taken to hospital for a surgical procedure. They were tested for the virus as soon as they arrived at the hospital and the result swiftly came back positive, although they were asymptomatic so no one knew they had the virus.
What the hospital then did was to cancel the surgical procedure and immediately send the resident back to the care home they had come from, in the full and certain knowledge that they had the virus.

So far as I can recall the Care Homes had the updated government advice what to do with someone with the virus - and it was not necessarily sent to hospital but protect, isolate and PPE all round. (though that is hardly helpful)

[Pluggy]

The opinion is turning, looking at it from the governments perspective with a cold {very cold} financial viewpoint it makes sense to kill off care home residents. From a capitalist perspective it could be argued its the responsible thing to do under the present conditions. And yes they are going to deny it vehemently, what else can they do ? At the best its manslaughter, I don't have any close family in a home, I'm getting close to it myself with my deteriorating condition but I'm still in my own home so I can look at it from a neutral (urgh) position. Of course, posting this I'm going to be demonised. Some would say I'm as guilty as the government.

[Stanley]

" Of course, posting this I'm going to be demonised. "
Not by me Pluggy Of course those considerations are recognised but not used overtly as part of policy and yes the cohort is by definition the oldest and most frail.
David, my trusted sources tell me the same thing.
Get Private Eye and read MD's two page piece on Covid this week. They should have him on national TV every day telling us the bald truth. He is excellent and I trust his track record. He's reminded me of something, see Forgotten Corners.
Track and trace. How many people realise that 15,000 of the 18,000 recruits to the programme are call centre staff with no clinical experience at all? They will be working largely unsupervised and their previous experience was in customer care.
With the app running into trouble already things don't look as rosy as '18,000' staff suggests.

[Whyperion]

From Australia - Coronavirus is excreted in faeces for up to six weeks after symptoms first appear.- A different view of track and trace I suppose. Virus totals will indicate where there are hot spots. Does this mean that an individual is infectious for the same length of time. Is this true of all corona viruses / colds and flu and would explain why cold and flu infections occur so readily. Would a proper 12 week lockdown of life in selected geographical areas over time eliminate not only Covid-2 but other viruses from such areas ?

[plaques]

The opinion is turning, looking at it from the governments perspective with a cold {very cold} financial viewpoint it makes sense to kill off care home residents. From a capitalist perspective it could be argued its the responsible thing to do under the present conditions. And yes they are going to deny it vehemently, what else can they do ? At the best its manslaughter

I was trying to make this point in one of my previous post but in a more indirect way. Although not in the same league as memories invoked by the chap in charge of the Third Reich but we could be on the slippery slope. Its my firm belief that we have both a moral and social responsibility to care for those in need. Going back to my post. Why was it when the norm for collecting influenza was to include ALL areas including care homes this feature was dropped for the Covid-19 virus? Whyperion suggests we should have known and factored these numbers in. I for one didn't know about the weekly influenza review. The restricted information may have been with good intent to soft the blow on the other hand by ignoring it the problem it all becomes too late with the sense its wasn't really the governments problem. Perhaps I'm being a bit too cynical.

[Tizer]

...I've heard the local hospital was turning the residents away when they'd tested positive for the virus. Anecdotal evidence only, I'm not sure whether I buy it....

This, of itself, shouldn't be surprising. I expect that the reports were early on when the hospitals hadn't had chance to gear up for the pandemic and could hardly cope with the influx of people who were already in life-threatening lung difficulties rather than simply having tested positive for covid-19. Which would I choose to treat? Those who needed immediate hospital treatment. Of course. that doesn't mean ignoring the others, just that you can't take them in the hospital.
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`Wuhan bans eating wild animals' Global Times
`Wuhan bans eating and hunting wild animals as well as illegal wildlife trade, according to a new regulation released on the official website of Wuhan government on Wednesday. The regulation stipulated that wild animals and their products that are banned from consumption include all terrestrial wildlife - wildlife animals that are on the national and Hubei provincial preservation lists, as well as animals that naturally grow and reproduce in the wild environment and artificially bred and propagated wild animals. The regulation includes precious aquatic wild animals under national key protection and endangered aquatic wild animals. It also includes other wild animals that are prohibited from consumption by laws and regulations..'.

[Whyperion]

the horse bolting and stable door might be a little of the wrong analogy, but it was changes to chinese regulations permitting (and encouraging) that activity two or three years back. It was a desparate problem of feeding a large population, but also maybe pandering to the exotic tastes of chinese elite business leaders with a taste for the exotic ( something that victorian england was not unheard of doing too ).
the USA has an excess of 60 million pigs, I wonder what the export trade to china is like for them? (though we know pig breeding brings risks of diseases too - time to go fully vegan ? )

[Stanley]

Johnson says the new NHS tracing app is 'world-beating'. So that's all right...

[Whyperion]

Starmer asked for one that was fit for purpose

Speaking of Which

this man https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52413431 presented with Covid-2 symptoms. now we know early (appropriate) interventions result in more positive outcomes, and I continue to ask, what was the point of the Nightingale Hospitals? In the old days we had fever/isolation hospitals, remind me which government sold them off for unaffordable housing ?

[Sue]

Coronavirus: Immune clue sparks treatment hope

Better understanding of Covid-19's impact on the immune system gives hope an existing drug might aid recovery.




https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52754280

[Sue]

Another interesting one on the same T cells action.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6493/809

[Whyperion]

thanks Sue, you were up earlier than me. I did suggest that the protrusions on some of the 'images' (are they real or artistically licenced), being of more than just a cell propulsion/latchment/infiltration mechanism , i am thinking that investigation of their chemical make up in destroying T-Cells should be investigated, I did postulate earlier that the thickening of blood was due to a mix incuding immune system debris whixh would include T-Cell fragements. the second link is a little unusual, but I would like to see later some research into the SARS/MERS coronovirus and how exposure to one affects an immune system response to SARS-2. The research on elements of common cold T-Cell responses might explain why SARS had less of a pandemic response outside of generally mid-earth latitudes (indeed do asian /mid east countries have less incidence of the common cold than European nations with our prolonged chilly winters ? (Cold virus I think like the warmer upper nostril temperatures to mulltiply in if I read the research correctly )

[Tizer]

Another interesting one on the same T cells action. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6493/809

I was particularly interested by the few paragraphs at the end of the article. They analysed blood from 68 people who haven't been infected with covid-19 and found that 34% of them had T cells that recognised this virus. They then checked stored blood samples collected between 2015 and 2018 and detected these T cells in about half of them. `The researchers think these cells were likely triggered by past infection with one of the four human coronaviruses that cause colds; proteins in these viruses resemble those of SARS-CoV-2 [covid-19]. Another viral immunologist then says the results do suggest: “One reason that a large chunk of the population may be able to deal with the virus is that we may have some small residual immunity from our exposure to common cold viruses.”

The fact that something harmful to us can sometimes protect us against something different and more harmful in the future is well-known. Take cowpox protecting us against smallpox for example. But there is also the fascinating possibility that evolution ensures that we keep hosting the common cold viruses and minor coronaviruses because they protect us against more dangerous infections. Wild animals usually carry several parasites permanently and there is a hypothesis that says these help modulate the immune system of the host animal. Another hypothesis is that some members of a species (and it might apply to humans too) are `weakened' because they suffer autoimmune disease but that this is perpetuated through the generations to the benefit of all when a dangerous infection arises. Then the `normal' members of the species die out but the `weak' are able to resist it, survive and reproduce.

The research on elements of common cold T-Cell responses might explain why SARS had less of a pandemic response outside of generally mid-earth latitudes (indeed do asian /mid east countries have less incidence of the common cold than European nations with our prolonged chilly winters ?

A couple of weeks ago I posted on this thread a link to a US web site (could have been CDC) where they postulated that the major areas of covid infection were in the cooler latitudes and that this tied in with the virus surviving better in colder environments. However, with hindsight and looking at the present geographical incidence I'd say there was only a poor correlation. Also the differences in government response may be more important than temperature in predicting the outcome.

[plaques]

Expanding on Tizer's comments on T cell being triggered by past infections. If and when the antibody checks become available for the general population I wonder how many who suffered the coughing type cold that was running late november will show antibodies for corona type virus. Personally I was very suspicious when I had what I thought was almost flu with increased temperature etc but not as bad as previous sufferings. Mrs P was most concerned about all this coughing and dragged me up to the doctors. In all events I saw a triage nurse who was adamant that I hadn't had flu but recommended some antibiotics for the rattling in my chest. Other people I know were whisked off for chest Xrays. To put this into prospective I have never had a chest problem in all my life. No doubt there will be hundreds of others who will be wondering what all this coughing was all about and did the medics suspect something that we didn't know?