POLITICS CORNER

[Tripps]

For Tripps, Scrambled Roniy .

Thanks for that - makes the post more understandable. Very kind.

[Sue]

Well said Tiz, and Big Kev, and Tripps. Its done, we can’t change it, life goes on. Its onwards and hopefully upwards. Over the last few years politics here have created a volatile agressive nation. Its not how I want to live.

[PanBiker]

I am currently between one and two on your list Tripps and will just say that whatever happens now it is not my fault. I have done everything within my power to effect change but it hasn't worked. Tories still carry the poisoned chalice raised even higher aloft and it will still lead to their ultimate downfall when the proverbial hits the fan.

In the local forest, joy of joys, we now have the Boundary Commissions re-carving of the wards in January. In a nutshell the proposal for West Craven is to take the Coates end of Barnoldswick, on a line running down Valley Road and all the other side and shove it into Earby. Of the three polling districts in Coates it's all of CS and part of CR. The remaining bits of CR and the whole of CQ polling district of Coates will be merged with Craven ward.

This will have a major knock on effect for the local Labour Party branch as the whole structure of the party is based on ward membership branches. Barlick is at the moment a two ward branch as we have the two wards of Coates and Craven which completely encompass the town. Earby is two miles down the road with green fields in-between and is based on a single ward. When they carve us up it will raise issues including how branch funds are held, committee structures and organisational issues. A whole new can of worms. As Baldrick said though, "I have a cunning plan sir"!

Back to the national scene, I will be going down Coates to retrieve all my computer equipment from our campaign HQ and put LIz's front room back in order. I will take Craven ward data off her computer and tell it to forget my laser printer. This operation will be a swansong as come January she will be exiled into Earby along with Cllr David Whipp and Tom. We will probably discuss why there are so many ten bob Tories.

[Stanley]

Good posts.... Two hours sleep has worked its magic. As I said this morning I was wrong to support what seemed to be a democratic decision by the party members, I apologise for that but don't regret the principles on which I did it. My second mistake was not to take JC to task for the flaws which started as soon as he shied away from clearing the Blairite nay-sayers out of his Shadow Cabinet and got worse as he allowed the ultra-left to get a stranglehold on the Party. That is now all water under the bridge, we are where we are.
Ian, don't despair, keep faith with the principles that enabled Labour to make such a difference over the last 100 years. I have seen many ups and downs over 18 elections and we have survived. Our job now is to do what many of Johnson's new MPs are going to do, hold him to account. Promises must be kept!
On that point, Just heard Sajid Javez on the news making the same anodyne statements that have characterised the election. He hasn't realised that things have changed, a very shallow man. The Tories have now to change gear to accommodate the new politics and everything has changed.
Looking at reality, we still have grossly underfunded public services, Brexit is a potential economic and political disaster, The Tory project to take us back to the 19th century is still in place and looking healthy and there is a chance we have entered Trumpian politics. The disabled, the poor and the people failed by social care are still no better off. The Homeless and starving can expect no immediate relief and food banks will be needed for many years yet. So there is much to fight for and the sooner we regroup and get on with it the better.
So my message is still, don't despair, keep the faith and hold politics to account. We are going to get a lot of surprises in the next 12 months, This may be a poisoned chalice.
An afterthought. Amid the celebrations can I remind the the Tory Party that most governments and almost all political careers end in failure.

[plaques]

Pick up a very good book yesterday at the library, 'Dreams of Leaving and Remaining', by James Meek. Only 100+ pages into it so I can't make a final judgement. He tries to analyse why the country voted as it did in the last general election and why people swung to UKIP rather than follow the traditional tribal politics. UKIP has now been replaced by the Brexit party but the effect is just the same, Not surprisingly what he uncovered is not a single issue, like a golden bullet that explains everything, but different single events in different places that override all norms of logic. This situation still exists today. Right-wing Labour will blame Left-wing Corbyn for a wide range of reasons but none of them not serious enough to reject his policies. The Tories right-wing media will try to blame Labour's extremism where in truth the extreme party is now the Conservatives. Unless this particular leopard changes its spots we are in for a rough ride.

[Tripps]

the principles that enabled Labour to make such a difference over the last 100 years.

I think it's time for Labour to engage more with the next 100 years rather than the last. I'm watching Sky News from Blyth market square - a place I know quite well. Hearing lifetime Labour voters explain why they voted Tory. The former MP Ronnie Campbell also spoke - he seems a decent sort to me but the voters say the area has stagnated for years.

Be interesting to see what Jeremy does next. The Islington - Momentum / Lansman types won't abandon their grip so easily, and McDonnell sees this as just a hiccup on the 'long march'. Remember the red book.

Surprised that Dennis Skinner who is 87 and not well - despite rumours to the contrary - stood again, and lost. He didn't attend the count. I'll miss his banter before the Queen's speech. "get your skates on - the first race as at 2.30"

Speaking of banter - Jonathon Ashworth looks even sillier now after his defence of his phone call to a 'friend' . Everything he 'bantered' to his friend was spot on.

[Whyperion]

Time for a change of allegiance, well done Boris, Lets get Brexit Done. No more austerity, now to be called rationalisation. Lets get rid of these so called cultural mill stones. Libraries, sport centres. theatre venues, community centres, nothing more than breading grounds for descent and disruption. Send all these foreigners and their dependents back home and make them pay £10 grand per year (non-refundable) per individual visa. Stop this pampering of pensioners, fuel allowance (climate change) and a massive increase in pension of 25p per week at 80 is just encouraging them to live longer. We should be thinking about reducing pensions at 80 by 20% per year, after all they've had a good wack at the pension pot.
The NHS could be saved by removing all tobacco and sugar restrictions but make people with health problems which are smoking related or overweight pay a premium towards their care.

Are those their ideas , or are you just feeding them ideas, either way that is not far off the truth.

[Whyperion]

Had to come back, Dennis Skinner has lost Bolsover to the Tories.

I'll comment more in a while, but listening to supposed previous Labour voting persons soundbites on the telly, I wonder what their expectations of Labour in their local areas, and nationally , actually ever was? Given that previous years - excluding Blair ones, Tories and Labour were philosopically miles apart and indeed were this year, were views on Corbyn shaped by a biased media ? The BBC commentators only want to cause disruption and mayhem, talking up leaving the EU ever since UKIP (Farrage) appeared on the scene without majoring on actually good things that (a reformed) EU could make for the the advantage of all in the UK, Andrew Neil appeared to be relishing pricking Boris though on his actual ability to get any kind of benificial EU long negiotiation of post-brexit trade in goods agreements. But Generally BBC/ Sky / ITV off to follow the circus of tipping Corbyn and Swinson out of leadership to pitching for any leaders that may, or may not, be good for the parties.

[Whyperion]

An afterthought. Amid the celebrations can I remind the the Tory Party that most governments and almost all political careers end in failure.

I seemed to note that most of the elected Tories (new in and old) , had an arrogance about them that I do not think will do well , will the 'social' elements that Boris grudingly adds to his pronuancements actually happen.

[Tizer]

There's at least one thing Labour supporters can be pleased about - it'll be the Tory Party that gets all the blame when folk find out what Brexit really means and the election promises never come to fruition. Boris Johnson's like someone who goes to an auction, gets into a silly bidding war and then can't manage to get the money together to pay up.

[PanBiker]

Rumour has it that Stephen Christopher Yaxley-Lennon aka Tommy Robinson, convicted yobbo, ex EDL etc, etc has joined the Tory Party, sounds about right. Maybe he's joined to learn new nasty tricks.

[Whyperion]

So (and if it is from opinion polls rather than any kind of analysis of the actual vote), if Lord Ashcroft's polling analysis quoted on the Guardian Website.
there are some strange actual percentages of the election. 55% of all votes were not for the Conservatives. 36% of women voted labour (though given the Pension Delay items it is surprising that 42% of voting females went for the Conservatives). Few ( about 20%) of persons under 34 voted Conservative, but 62% (or nearly 2/3rds) of 65+ voted Conservative - this aligns with the kind of percentages Pro Brexit and I think many of the 'red wall' seats that went blue have a greater number of older voters rather than younger ones. This is an example of structural change within the UK that Labour has to think on where any message- centerist or leftward- needs to pitch. There is some thought that the Labour campaign management was not effectively put in place - rather than trying to gain new votes retaining existing voters might have been more useful- accepting a Tory majority but minimising it. But Could Labour- other than in a handful of seats where tactically getting a few LD votes in some places, and sacrificing campaining in a few others to ensure no tory in might have been a more useful strategy - got beyond the essentially simple Get Brexit Done T-Shirt wearing populist Boris campaign ? Any realistic Labour innovation appeared to be subsumed into elements of the Social Policy of the Conservatives, (NHS Safe with Tories- they are hardly likely compared to 1948 to say otherwise - even if the reality may not be true). The Liberal Democrats Polled 11.6% of the vote, but only get 1.6% of the Parliament seats, as Labours polling to seat percentage is about close enough this time, there is some rightful agrievement that the present Defacto Conservative/Unionist seats 371 adjusting for Speakers and Lab/Lib/SNP/Green of 261 should really be 65 seats to Liberals (but of course some come from a Lab/SNP mix) and 12 seats to Greens which I think we could actually say a fairer split should be 299 Conservative and 340 oppositions , which would have given the kind of hung parliament I was expecting, ( or one ruled by Majorities and effectively brexit modified or off the table). Once again the present system has delivered a result that nobody actually voted for, if individual votes actually mattered. Now one might consider that in a real PR system , more might vote Conservative and fewer LD, or maybe it would be the other way, its not easy to tell but I suspect that the actual split would end up about 316 Tory Supporting, 323 non supporting (Brexit or not). with an error of 14 'seats' either way. Will Labour going forward continue on 31% of the vote (33% of Great Britain Vote) - made up of 20% left wing supporters and 10% other voters. despite doorstep comments I cannot see Corbyn factor reducing Labour vote by more than 3%, Brexit by 3% and other factors (say anti-semitism and geneal fed-up-ness of 4%) so labour essentially could garner another 10% of UK votes ( note overall turnout was 1.7% down compared to 2017), but thses votes would by no means be equally split into the places where seats would reflect this.

[Whyperion]

Tizer, there seems to be a growing gap between Labour Supporters and Labour voters. But will Tory Central Govt continue to deny the remaining Labour areas new or sufficient funding for their essential (and good discretionery) services, while the new acquisitions will see a strange number of new or better schools, libraries, local health centres - enough to buy the next election ?

Overall the result (for Labour) was determined not by Corbyn, good or bad, but by Blair (and Brown), by failing to build good quality affordable housing during the Labour years and maintaining essentially Tory policies, while increasing immigration, expanding the EU with structural wage differences and ramping up expensive and futile wars overseas bringing about a rise of islamism in a miltant format the 4 (*)forks of dis-satifaction that UKIP pulled on, Brexit ramped up and Boris was able to wrap around , and there is much that the 'one-nation' segment of the tory party has that is difficult for any social progressive not to like on paper - though one might get infuriated in practice - again if the future is yet to be written it appears certain, but may not be so. (*) and spending with the economic cycle and not ensuring correct financial controls in place in part to fit to World Bank and EU Rules.

PS I still find Sajid Javid a ( sorry words totally unacceptable for a family website and hope that Johnson does too)

[Whyperion]

Sorry.
I forgot, the areas of 'red wall' essentially had been deprived of funding by tories for some years , and they have managed the greatest Con trick of this century so far, with the pressure on benfits to those not in work (and sometime having no chance of getting work - and/or decent housing), and benifits to the disabled (see this weeks Private Eye for yet more examples), the amount of money actually moving around those areas was much less , with the resulting areas of town centre / pubs / shopping decline.

[Stanley]

David, never forget the history, look to the future but keep applying good social democratic principles.
My beef with Corbyn wasn't that he was left wing, it was that he wasn't decisive enough to face down the rabid ultra-left wing of the party and clearly state his own principles. Harriet Harman talked sensibly yesterday.
Perhaps the most level headed comment I heard was a conversation between Kenneth Clarke and David Blunkett. Deep understanding, common sense and experience combined.
My advice to my comrades is keep the faith, read Grossman and listen to Paul Robeson singing 'Songs of Free Men', in particular 'Joe Hill' and 'Peat Bog Soldiers'. (I'm listening to it now.)
We now have to wait and watch. I can't see a good outcome and hope I am wrong.
As for Labour, signs already that there is going to be no change in the rotten core. Very sad.

[Tizer]

As for Labour, signs already that there is going to be no change in the rotten core. Very sad.

Get a woman in charge to sort `em out!

From the front page of the `i' newspaper today...

[Stanley]

"Labour’s Harriet Harman cruised to an easy win in Camberwell & Peckham constitiency last night with a massive 33,780 majority. The former deputy party leader bagged 40, 258 votes, with second-placed Peter Quentin, for the Conservatives, polling 6,478. Julia Ogiehor, of the Liberal Democrats, came third with 5,087 votes and fourth was the Green Party’s Claire Sheppard with 3, 501 votes."
"Margaret Hodge called for the Jeremy Corbyn and his entire leadership team to step down so Labour could shed its "nasty" image after she stormed to victory in Barking in what was an otherwise devastating night for the party. After the result was declared Ms Hodge appeared to reference Theresa May's 2002 Conservative conference speech when she said Labour was “now the nasty party"."
Here are two candidates.
John McDonnell says he will not return to shadow cabinet. I think that's the right decision but even he hasn't accepted that the basic failure was Jeremy Corbyn.
On a personal level I have been forced into examining my attitudes. The conclusion I have come to is that I was correct in supporting the democratic process that gave JC the Leadership. This meant that as a Party Member I owed him loyalty. Where I went badly wrong was by allowing him too much leeway after he demonstrated his basic flaw of not being totally ruthless when he selected his first Shadow Cabinet, he should have had a 'Night of the Long Knives' and been his own man. His failure is due to the fact that he allowed Momentum to control him and his actions. That was the point where I should have smelt a rat.
This is the point where I hit another problem, was I a rat deserting the sinking ship by finally rejecting JC or simply sensibly reacting to the evidence that I had backed the wrong horse? I have decided it is the latter. I still hold to my belief in the historic core principles of Labour but must now look for a different route to achieve these, I believe that they are more important than ever now. That's why I agree with Tiz, we need a fundamental reorganisation of the Party and it may be that the shock of this massive defeat will trigger that.
As for the Tory win.... I asked myself how they had got to this position with the same policies that had threatened them with extinction a month ago and there is only one answer, the total failure of Labour to oppose sensibly and this started in 2016. Instead of uniting to fight the Tories that did the usual Labour thing of starting internal warfare.
It is that fundamental flaw that any revision of Labour must address.



This image haunts me. Leopards don't change their spots. I am convinced that they are on track with the master plan, to drag us back to 19th century laisser faire. I forecast a year of turmoil ending in either Johnson doing a volte face and applying for an extension or going for broke with No Deal. Either way it is going to be damaging, the brief resurgence of the £ is only a reaction by the markets. The base line is that the economy is teetering on the brink of recession and nothing in the politics is going to alter that.
Tin hats on lads!

[Sue]

I have to disagree. I think whichever way it goes we will be out of Europe in the New Year. I also think that initially there will be a move to do some of the things promised. It will all start to go wrong when Brexit kicks in, and the new money tree dries up due to lack of jobs etc. He needs to get trade agreements sorted quickly. I try to be optimistic, no point being anything else because it won’t change anything, but apparently he was good Mayor of London. My concern is for Ireland, N and S, if a trade deal with Europe is not agreed very quickly.

[plaques]

Lets face it Corbyn backed the wrong horse. He was foolish enough to think that voters would see that the policies we've been following for 15 years are the root of our problems. People are fickle creatures, why blame yourself when there's a perfectly good scapegoat at hand? How easy it to say if the EU hadn't done this or the other then 'things' would have carried on as before. This totally ignores the fact that 'things' were already changing and that subsidies and controls had actually improved our lives. I know its a big ask but look through Labour's manifesto and strike through the bits you disagree with but I don't think the average person will find many. Get Brexit Done, did fit the mind set of not blaming oneself and allowed the onus to be placed on others. Now the dragon is slain what now? buckets full of aspirations but no real plan, perhaps the EU will take pity on us because the Republican Americans won't. In case you haven't heard Robin Hood is dead the bad sheriff killed him off years ago.

[Tizer]

I'm pleased to see Stanley and Plaques have recognised the way Corbyn and his Momentum gang wrecked Labour's chances. The big danger in politics these days is the echo chamber effect where a group of people bounce the same ideas back and forth and miss what's going on oustide the group. The Labour Party, by the nature of its structure, is more prone to this problem than other parties. There's a good article by the BBC's North America correspondent Jon Sopel which examines what the UK election result means for the US Democrats but has plenty to say about our election. He mentions the echo chamber problem: `The best voice on this is from a pre-tweeting, pre-electronic media, pre-opinion poll age - and it is from the 18th century English philosopher, Edmund Burke. He wrote:

"Because half a dozen grasshoppers under a fern make the field ring with their importunate chink, whilst thousands of great cattle, reposed beneath the shadow of the British oak, chew the cud and are silent, pray do not imagine that those who make the noise are the only inhabitants of the field."

In passing Sopel also mentions the time he spent in Sedgefield interviewing working class folk in the mid-1990s when he was writing a biography of Tony Blair. When he asked them what they liked so much about Blair the answer was "He isn't from the loony left".

`Will UK provide light bulb moment for US Democrats?' LINK

[plaques]

I'm pleased to see Stanley and Plaques have recognised the way Corbyn and his Momentum gang wrecked Labour's chances.

As a subject of the Queen, actually I'd rather be English, I can't speak for Stanley but if telling lies and half truths not to mention misleading people completely is today's politics then include me out (Samuel Goldwyn). I don't go in for the Mea culpa bit. I still think Corbyn's manifesto policies were right and that we are heading towards a low wage unregulated economy. The big losers will be the young but what care I, I'll probably be dead in a few years anyhow. Some people have a blind faith that it will all come right in the end, technology will pull us through, but if robots take over manual work, profits syphoned off abroad and tax regimes slanted towards the rich, who is going to pay for high labour intensive services industries like health and care? Yes Corbyn lost, that is a fact, but it doesn't mean he was wrong. Thomas Piketty covered all this ground some years ago, nobody said he was wrong they just didn't like his solution.

[Tripps]

I'm fairly pleased with the election result, mainly because Corbyn lost rather than Boris won. I had in my mind as I voted, the two people I knew personally of, who were murdered by his friends in the IRA. I was a regular user of the coach which was blown up on the M62 in 1974.

I see that Jeremy says today

There is no quick fix to overcome the distrust of many voters. Patronising them will not win them over. Labour has to earn their trust. That means the patient work of listening and standing with communities, especially as the government steps up its assault. And it means ensuring that the working class, in all its diversity, is the driving force within our party.

Is it fanciful to think that he isn't too worried about losing, since his natural posture all his political life has been as an outsider even in his own party, fighting the evil Tories, and actually governing might have been a bit of a pain for him.

Like the dog who barks and chases cars - he wouldn't know what to do if he caught one.

[Tizer]

And it means ensuring that the working class, in all its diversity, is the driving force within our party.

And there lies one of the problems. He hasn't grasped that most people these days don't see themselves as `working class'. They see that as outdated and don't want to be described that way. Gone are the days of thousands upon thousands of miners and shipbuilders and dockers. A great many of the people Corbyn would call working class are actually running their own small businesses, setting up enterprises, going to university, or working in those small businesses, and they have aspirations for greater things. Even the poor dream of being well off. To those people Corbynism smacks of East Germany.

[plaques]

Nothing wrong with people having aspirations but..
How much money does the average U.K. person have in their savings? The amount of people with over £100 in savings in the UK is falling. Only 67% of 35-44-year olds have more than £100 in savings. The number of Adult ISAs in the UK is falling, down from 12,657 in 2015/16 to just 10,815 in 2017/18.22 Jan 2019 (saving statistics)

Around 14.2 million people live in poverty in the UK: 8.5 million adults, 4.5 million children and 1.4 million pensioners
People with disabilities are much more likely to be living in poverty: 48.3% of households in poverty live in families with a disabled person
People in work also live in poverty: 60% of people in poverty in Britain live in a household where someone is in work.
Renters are disproportionately affected by poverty: 70% of people in poverty live in rented accommodation.

They may not like to think of themselves as working class but they can't afford to be upper class.

[Whyperion]

Failing ISAs might have something to do with megre returns, and nil tax on first £5k of savings income ( this may seem genereous but a maturing endowment policy with the wrong kind of wording or advice can easily pop a tax charge in the year of reciept ). Given though previous treasury changes I had mused where Boris would get the funds to 'end austerity' ( its actually going to be a less reduced austerity spend ), I then recalled some fiscal drags and changes to VAT timings and some other bits that will ensure the smudged middle will not be as financially as well of as they thought.
For working classes, for years it has been the situation that individual aspiration has driven or pulled voters to Conservatives rather than LeftWing Labour policies, see many socialogy studies and reports. Reading a BBC analysis of say Sedgefield ( main town Trimdon ) , ok incomes of workers below national average, but in terms of managing and well-offness in honesty the people could hardly say they were hard done by, biggest fear was though potential loss of jobs,( unemployment was 4.7% rate ), and a dying town centre. Both things could have been tackled by local labour but tory rules had somewhat shackled local initative, and I dont think the local labour group actually had that forward thinking initative.
Anyone worried that Boris is possibly replacing Civil Servants with Paid External Advisors (Didnt Blair try that too?).
Queens Speech = HM Arrives "Get Brexit Done" HM Leaves.