Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

[Wendyf]

There have been 187 confirmed cases in Pendle in total and 194 in Burnley.

[Stanley]

As I keep saying Ken, I don't trust the figures. All the statistics in the world won't stop the virus if you are exposed to it.

[Sue]

I'm getting all confused about the covid risk statistics. At the start of the epidemic with the R rate at 4+, ie: the number of people an infectious person is likely to infect if out in the community, which apparently now equates to 1 in 40 for the people likely to catch it. Now the R rate has dropped between 0.7 / 0.9 the odds are now between 400/500 to 1. with some quoting 1000 to 1.

THE likelihood of catching coronavirus is now one in 1,000 - while the chances of Brits meeting someone with the deadly bug have dropped from one in 40 to just one in 500.

These are dramatic changes in the risk factor which frankly I don't understand. If we think of Barlick at its peek of activity then 1 in 1000 makes it virtually totally safe to go out there and mix amongst them.

Could someone (Sue, Tizer) explain what's going on? Otherwise I'm with Tripps and Stanley.

Don’t ask me, ask Tizer. I think its more to do with the fact that the calculation of the R number is not as simple as described to us all. I read an article on its calculation, I didn’t understand it, far too mathematical in Rochdale 0.6% of the population are shown to have it by test results, thats 6 in a 1000 thats a lot of people to meet. But of course I don’t know of it is generally through out Rochdale or localised. I should think the cases are near Oldham and Manchester as that was where the clusters were. I await further guidance from the powers that be otherwise I isolate and walk only with the very very occasional local shopping

[Tripps]

I don't get on with James O'Brien on LBC - however he has today pointed out how useless this Government is during this pandemic, and it's hard to disagree.

Latest is the raising of the lockdown rules / instructions for people who are in the 'shielded' category. He points out that this was announced late last Saturday night, and thinks it was to deflect attention from a story which was about to surface in the Sunday press which in the event didn't happen.

I find it was announced by Robert Jenrick on twitter.

Robert Jenrick
@RobertJenrick
SHIELDING THREAD (1/3)
From Monday, the 2.2 million people who’ve been shielding can go outside for first time.
This will be with either members of their household, or, if they live alone, to meet one other person.
Full guidance will follow tomorrow.
524 11:09 PM - May 30, 2020

Can his 'conspiracy theory' be correct? Maybe. The 'lifting ' is minimal, and probably something which people have already been doing and is something which I'd say is a matter for each individual to decide. The link to Mr Jenrick above gives plenty of ammunition to conspiracy theorists.

[Tizer]

R numbers. Sue has put her finger on it in that post above. The R numbers being bandied about are usually the national average, or sometimes for a city such as London. They take no account of the great variation from one place to another. That doesn't mean R is not a useful concept but it's best left to the epidemiologists. It's been wheeled out to impress us because the government wants to try and prove it's following `the science' so it can blame scientists in the future if things go badly (oh dear, I'm becoming cynical in my old age!). I take no notice of the R number and get on with protecting myself and others by social distancing, hygiene etc and most of all not getting in or near large groups of people.
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I heard about lifting the shielded lockdown on the radio yesterday. I still don't understand why the shielded people were not allowed to go out at all. I know they were at greater risk if they caught the virus but that's not the same as saying they were at greater risk of catching it. If they went out for a walk and socially distanced like the rest of us they wouldn't catch it.
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`Coronavirus: The human cost of virus misinformation' LINK
`A BBC team tracking coronavirus misinformation has found links to assaults, arsons and deaths. And experts say the potential for indirect harm caused by rumours, conspiracy theories and bad health information could be much bigger..'.

[Sue]

....I heard about lifting the shielded lockdown on the radio yesterday. I still don't understand why the shielded people were not allowed to go out at all. I know they were at greater risk if they caught the virus but that's not the same as saying they were at greater risk of catching it. If they went out for a walk and socially distanced like the rest of us they wouldn't catch it.
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That is exactly what thought, and why couldn’t my brother sit in his own garden. I didn’t understand it

[Whyperion]

....I heard about lifting the shielded lockdown on the radio yesterday. I still don't understand why the shielded people were not allowed to go out at all. I know they were at greater risk if they caught the virus but that's not the same as saying they were at greater risk of catching it. If they went out for a walk and socially distanced like the rest of us they wouldn't catch it.
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That is exactly what thought, and why couldn’t my brother sit in his own garden. I didn’t understand it

Some of us in London Flats dont have gardens, even the door next door to the front door is less than 2meters away.

Its still going to end up (potentially) with a large number of people dying over a longer length of time, rather than a quick high pile up.

What I dont understand is despite -presumably - all the hygiene improvements why the disease still spreads so quickly. Though one TV doctor did note that as a byside there was a reduction in things like food poisoning diseases (these are mainly bacterial?)

[Whyperion]

Also announced (I did not listen so this is BBC report)
6,000 new homes will be built to provide permanent accommodation for rough sleepers in England

I followed the Jenrick link above, huffpost UK have embedded the speech into the allegations page.

Jenrick actually says new supported homes - not new build as such so likely to be effectively hostel accommodation with (?funded and trained? support workers).

[Sue]

....I heard about lifting the shielded lockdown on the radio yesterday. I still don't understand why the shielded people were not allowed to go out at all. I know they were at greater risk if they caught the virus but that's not the same as saying they were at greater risk of catching it. If they went out for a walk and socially distanced like the rest of us they wouldn't catch it.
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That is exactly what thought, and why couldn’t my brother sit in his own garden. I didn’t understand it

Some of us in London Flats dont have gardens, even the door next door to the front door is less than 2meters away.

I know some people don’t have gardens, many in fact but why should those shielding that have out door space not be allowed outside. It could have been worded to accommodate this

[plaques]

Trying hard not to bore people to death with the maths behind corvid infection rate and probabilities of catching it here is my much simplified explanation.
Most people now know that the R rate is the propensity for the virus to spread through the community. With a R rate of 4, a single person within their infectious period could infect 4 other people who in turn could infect 4 more each etc, etc. Once the rate gets below 1 the expansion tails off. This could be because the number of people who had had the virus becomes a barrier or the rest are locked away out of arms reach. The question is what happens when you release the lockdown people?
On the other side of the fence what is the chance of catching the virus? If you are lock down and isolating virtually zero. if you are moving about the general population and maintain the 2 mtr rule the chances are also down to small numbers. So what is this 400/500 to one business all about? Basically if you take the current numbers of infectious people who can spread it into the current population who can be infected with it you you get this 400/500 probability. What does this mean? Well not a lot. Richard Feynman used the analogy of seeing a particular car number plate in a given car park. The probability is in the thousands to one against and yet every day we see number plates we've never seen before. In effect even although the probability appears small the risk is always there. Should we be worried? Is the glass half full or half empty or to quote dirty Harry, OK punk go ahead make my day.

[Stanley]

I shall stay aware of the danger and alert until there is a vaccine. I disregard the numbers and don't even try to understand them for the simple reason it doesn't affect my strategy and won't actually make any difference to my personal outcome. As a person in the shielded category I have to avoid getting it, end of story.
Gavin Williamson says opening schools is safe so that's all right then.

[Tizer]

..the maths behind corvid infection rate..

Have the crows caught it too, now?

[Whyperion]

..the maths behind corvid infection rate..

Have the crows caught it too, now?

Dead Magpie in the Gutter for the last couple of days, the foxes have not bothered with it. The Crow is still chasing the other living Magpie so I am not certain what is happening.

Sue- was there worries about things through the fence or whatever.

[PanBiker]

Now, read into this what you will. Ten days ago the Yorkshire Scrubs organisation Sally was sending her sewing to advised all their machinists to finish up any fabric they were currently working on and then stand down. They had filled all the requirements of the organisations they were supplying and had spare capacity of scrubs.

Last week she was contacted and asked to recommence sewing as much output as she could produce. Material is being supplied centrally from the distribution hub who have been sourcing fabric. It is now being sent out pre-cut and with a new pattern and instructions. Apparently this output will be going into storage in Wales.

My view is that the rapid relaxation, (over no more than the last few days) of various aspects of the so called "lockdown" is nothing more than an attempt to create a second wave during the summer months. This will be brutal of course but would help to get nearer to the requirement for "herd immunity" for the survivors. Why else would they open the traps across such a wide range.

Track and trace is not up to speed, one bloke yesterday who has been engaged in the system has been working since last Thursday and has only been asked to ring one person. He was quoted on the national news last night, "they are paying me £1,500 a month to sit on my arse!" Folk can now meet in groups, schools are being encouraged to re-open without any liaison with the teaching unions or controlling educational authorities. Formerly shielding individuals can now go out. Furloughed staff are being encouraged back to work. It seems like a very rapid lifting and change of course to me and too soon in my view.

[Marilyn]

Due to Coronavirus, much surgery has been cancelled of course, but elective surgery is supposed to be gradually gaining momentum once again.
Which is why I was quite shocked to hear of mass redundancy of nurses from our major hospital here. What is going on? Seems a bit premature. Politics at its worst I think.

[PanBiker]

Just done a quick calculation on the costs of the track and trace regime. Only £27 million a month if they are all on the same rate as the bloke mentioned in my last post. I would assume it will be a flat rate for the other tracers.

[Tripps]

nothing more than an attempt to create a second wave during the summer months.

Is it possible that it is intended soon to announce that face coverings must be worn in public and they want to ensure that a supply is available?

[PanBiker]

Sally does not supply face coverings for the NHS as she cannot produce the grade required for surgical use. She sews basic double layer ones for anyone that wants them.

[Whyperion]

Just done a quick calculation on the costs of the track and trace regime. Only £27 million a month if they are all on the same rate as the bloke mentioned in my last post. I would assume it will be a flat rate for the other tracers.

I thought they were after volunteers (too) or some managers and others out on the NHS existing budget head count?


Some Stats
The review of death certificates by national statisticians showed 2,872 cases where the virus was mentioned in the week ending 22 May.

Overall there were 13,800 deaths in that week - 2,500 more than normal at this time of the year. (UK)
That is interesting I wonder if the good weather and earlier deaths had effectively given a less than normal expected after C-19. Maybe 350 odd variation is not statistically significant but it is interesting and not what I had expected - though I do expect numbers to rise over the next three weeks for C-19 and possibly fall for other purposes.

[Sue]

Sally does not supply face coverings for the NHS as she cannot produce the grade required for surgical use. She sews basic double layer ones for anyone that wants them.

I have found a source of washable filters that can go between the two layers, if they are left as a pouch if she is interested

[plaques]

Conspiracy theory in full flow. What if this sudden release of lockdown conditions is a negotiating ploy to show the EU that we are in a good enough shape, corvid -19, speaking that we can weather a crash out trade deal. The negotiations at the moment appear to be going nowhere so if nothing changes by the end of June that's it, all talks stop. All a bit extreme but what value do you put on a couple of thousands plebs lives compared with trade deals that could make millions for the 0.1%

From Wiki..
It was expected that the first rounds deals with regulatory standards and fisheries.[14][17] It is understood that if those points are not agreed by the end of June, both sides will break off negotiations to concentrate on no deal preparedness.[17]

[Marilyn]

One ponders how a virus that originated in wild animals ( as opposed to being manufactured in a lab), can have a much worse outcome for males, older persons, those of an ethnic minority, those with a particular blood group etc.
( and yet we hear it is not present in breast milk).
Makes you scratch your head a bit...how did this virus get so darn clever?

[Marilyn]

Two more thoughts I’ve had ( must stop waking early and staring at the ceiling)...
IF this virus originated in wild animals, where are the countless bodies of dead wild animals. How come not even one species of wild animals have a significant head count ( because we would be collecting and disposing of the bodies pretty carefully wouldn’t we?)
And...
Will there be unsavoury governments who freeze dry/preserve this virus...to be used as a biological weapon in the future. No need for troops on the ground - just release “the weapon”.

[Stanley]

You are straying into conspiracy theory Maz.
Ian, funny thing is I was comparing Covid with Foot and Mouth. Lots of points in common including the cull... I too wonder what the actual strategy is.especially when the government are told by the national fact checkers that their statistics are obscure crap.

[Marilyn]

True...but it’s where I always end up. Why, I wonder...