OneGuyFromBarlick

Interesting debate on Today this morning about the involvement of the PM in over seas trade missions.

The cross bench peer who was on spoke a lot of sense in terms of leadership qualities.

...and the new politics does seem to be around the OBR numbers, arguing that their tax take numbers are also very optomistic and there is going to be a huge shortfall in revenue. Wonder what gorgeous George will do then?

Wonder if he'll decide to tax the grandchildren...

Georgie says that losing AAA rating proves we have to carry on with debt reduction. He also says "debt is down 25%". Really? Which debt is this exactly? As for 1,000,000 jobs being created, yes, but are they proper jobs? If things are as good as he says they are why were we downgraded? I am confused....
I note that the lady MEP has jumped ship to the Tories.... Bit like hitching a lift on the Titanic.....

I think he said - which is the current 'line to take' - that the deficit is down by 25%. Not sure if that's true either, but you'll find out eventually - the markets will tell you.

Interesting notes coming out of Moody's, whether you believe them is entirely up to you, but the markets have been costing these things in already so it is no surprise.

It's the extra bits: little or no economic growth for a decade in prospect, over burdened tax payer, and a whole host of other bits, even the massive dig at the two Ed's policy

David, I heard the clip and I thought he said debt but it's all academic because a bald one sentence statement like that can't possibly explain the position. The bottom line is that he is getting enough evidence to show that the policies aren't working and never could. The longer the flat-lining goes on the more structural it gets as investments age and below living-wage jobs become the norm with consequential effects on productivity. One thing is certain now, the next General Election will be fought by a party with no answers on the economy and a lousy track record. Cameron's back benchers know this and the big question is how long until they decide they need a change. It would be nice to hear some clear alternative policy proposals from someone, anyone!

They're too busy speculating about Lord Renard today......

Car crash politics from Calamity and the Lib Dems, like ferrets fighting in a sack.

Nothing like aiming both barrels at your feet

I was a little surprised when my twitter feed started mentioning Pendle Councillor Lord Greaves in the sexual shenanighans:

Here's guido's links:

http://order-order.com/2013/02/25/libde ... -advances/

Some of the twitterati have been much less charitable.

Slightly disturbed that he considers it 'normal' when in actuality it could be construed as assault.

Hopely Ms Cohen will pick up on it for the B&E

Rennard affair is puzzling. (LINK). When a politician starts using the same word over and over again as Clegg did with 'specific', my crap detector starts whining. It was specific enough to send Danny Alexander hotfoot to ask Rennard if there was anything in it. Some investigation huh? Why did he do a Cardinal O'Brien and resign?
Italy enters interesting times. The Citizens Network, a protest movement against austerity, corruption and high taxes gets a third of the vote. Berlusconi does better than anyone expected. Prospect seems to be a hung parliament or even an ungovernable country. Just as the EU were heaving a sigh of relief over Greece. Watch this space, this isn't good news.
With loss of AAA rating the level of Sterling against other currencies comes under the spotlight. We here the old canard that it's a good thing because it makes it easier to export. Really? That good?

There would appear to be a lot of head-scratching going on in the chancelleries of the EU and the market is a bit twitchy as the Italian poll results are digested. The EU train wreck had gone quiet but a combination of bad GDP forecasts and uncertainty generated in Italy is a threat to stability. The worst aspect of it from the EU point of view is the protest vote which is basically anti-politics. The electors are getting to the stage where the lack of confidence in governments is getting serious and this applies to the UK as well.
Tomorrow's by election could be interesting. The LibDem rating is at an all time low and a rejection of a Tory candidate could be a trigger for even more back bench unrest against Cameron and his policies. I'm glad I'm not in either his shoes or Clegg's. What interests me is the possibility of an Italian style protest vote and the turnout figure.

A drop in the £ is only useful if our trading partners have a corresponding rise in their currencies. Since the Euro and dollar have dropped that isn't going to happen

Plus, we actually do have to have something that we can export

Even have a Tesco man this morning saying that they were going to buy British food to protect their supply chain. Well it takes agriculture a little time to repsond to that kind of impetus.

The Lord Rennard thing lives on and hasn't even become a zombie yet

Seems to be a party with lots of different opinions but no one willing to actually take accountability.

I hear the Lib Dem candidate was openly mocked in Eastleigh as he opened his answer to a question with "on the one hand...but on the other..."

Maybe some massaging in the panic statement that Labour may come 4th to UKIP

If it was a question on policy, there's nothing wrong per se in an 'on the one hand....on the other' answer, surely? Little in politics is black and white and a measured evaluation of the pros and cons of an issue to ultimately arrive at a sensible conclusion based on that assessment is something we should look for more in our elected representatives. There's far too much ideology or 'feeling' masquerading as self-evident fact for my liking these days. This doesn't represent intertia, rather that people are willing to commit the time to thinking about matters no matter that, at the end of the day, we may not agree with their conclusions.

Richard Broughton

Bruff wrote:If it was a question on policy, there's nothing wrong per se in an 'on the one hand....on the other' answer, surely? Little in politics is black and white and a measured evaluation of the pros and cons of an issue to ultimately arrive at a sensible conclusion based on that assessment is something we should look for more in our elected representatives. There's far too much ideology or 'feeling' masquerading as self-evident fact for my liking these days. This doesn't represent intertia, rather that people are willing to commit the time to thinking about matters no matter that, at the end of the day, we may not agree with their conclusions.

Richard Broughton

It wasn't

Ahhh, so something like 'what's your favourite biscuit' that famously caught out Mr Brown where he stumbled and flustered petrified that his choice would be examined left, right and centre to demonstrate some character trait or other then?

Richard Broughton

The worst devaluation in the last three years has been in the status of politics. From expenses through to sex scandals the decent men and women have to put up with the results of the actions of the few. I've been watching politics for a long time and this is the lowest point ever. I agree with Richard about the dangers of dogma and certitude, add the sorts of behaviour that have been exposed amongst 'career politicians' looking after themselves and lack of basic principle and we get an ethos very similar to that in the financial sector. Not a good way to run a railway.....
Meanwhile, in Italy the man in charge of the protest party has said there will be no cooperation with other factions and he hopes for another election within a year. Bad news for the rest of the EU and it will affect us as well. The Italians are quite volatile and it may have been predictable that they would be the first to voice protest against governance in this way. Question is how close other countries are to taking the same route and what form it will take. Eastleigh will be the focus here later today.

My twitter feed was once more filled with vitriole aimed at the crass comments (My opinion) made by Lord Greaves. No excuse for anything approaching sexual predation or assault.

I really hope that he will resign if any prosecutions occur

This is why politics should never be involved in the NHS:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... lives.html

Lib Dem Mayor of Oxford censured by Council for saying inappropriate sexual message to 13 year old sports girl at awards ceremony where he was the official representative of the Council.

The tabloids are having fun

May I misquote:

"One thing is certain now, the next General Election will be fought by parties with no (effective) answers on the economy and lousy track records."

Problem is I have no idea how to change the thought processes in any of the parties , nor am I clear on what real agenda any of them wish to follow.

I can only maintain that I would like to see a simplification of the tax system that fairly encourages income generation and a benefits system that supports those in need. A proper long term view of reducing the value of imported goods and services. ( I am in favour generally of world trade but the dependence on imported energy (and food) seems a worrying thing )

Of the public funds that are available there seems to be still incredible waste, with inefficient spending.

Former U.S. Speaker of the House Tip O'Neill coined the phrase 'All politics is local' and the result at Eastleigh bears this out. The long time local Councillor has won for the Libdems but with a much reduced majority. Tories in third place to UKIP. Big sigh of relief from Nick, thinking cap on for Dave. Lesson for Labour as well.... remember when they parachuted a candidate into Blaenau and lost to an Independent Labour candidate who was a long standing Party member and respected in the locality?

Stanley wrote:The long time local Councillor has won for the Libdems but with a much reduced majority. Tories in third place to UKIP. Big sigh of relief from Nick, thinking cap on for Dave. Lesson for Labour as well.... remember when they parachuted a candidate into Blaenau and lost to an Independent Labour candidate who was a long standing Party member and respected in the locality?

14% swing from each of the main parties to UKIP, Labour vote slightly higher

The machine of all those parish and Borough Council party people should have made it a walk in the park, and really if Farage had stood instead it might have been a totally different outcome. He's even saying that the Tories split the UKIP vote, which is quite brave. Some stuff about postal votes too, but I'm not entirely sure that I understand his point.

Not sure that there are any real lessons as the seat has been Lib Dem for 20 years

Much discussion on Radio 2 and Radio 4 re Eastleigh. Given that nearby Southampton lost Ford jobs , funded by the EU over to Turkey one would have thought that UKIP should have polled even better. Some ideas that UKIP and Tories should consider coalition or merger at some time. What I cannot understand with Conservatives though is what exactly they want to reject about present Europe (EU) UK impacting legislation. I think I understand future worries regarding a 'Federal' Europe.

The turnout at Eastleigh was high for a by-election (22%). The drop in Libdem support and the miserable performance of the Tories both exacerbated by UKIP taking voters off both of them is logical as the right and centre right protest. What I don't understand is the inclusion of Labour in the 'bloody nose' syndrome. They have never held the seat and didn't expect to gain it. Remember, it's a by-election and this one was a good chance to see which way the wind is blowing as the EU teeters on the brink again, The US has another internal spat over automatic cuts and Sterling drops to lowest level for two and a half years. A bit of good news would be welcome!

The only reason for Labour's bloody nose is that the fact that they did not attract the protest vote at all, as they did when there was a last byelection in the same constituency under John Major. They retained their core vote, nothing else, which is why some in Labour's team have been calling for at least one head from the two Ed's

Byelections are always odd, usually a way of registering a protest

I think that the turnout in Eastleigh was 52%, which is unusual, but also demonstrates that in Lib Dem/Tory seats the electorate does usually come out to vote.