OneGuyFromBarlick

Best Set of budget economic free graphs (outside of FT -buy it!), that I have found are here:

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehous ... ry-graphs/

The most startling thing that strikes you from the other figures is that by 2014-15 tax receipts are estimated to be £62 billion lower in 2014-15 than the June 2010 forecast. So all these taxes have been raised but the exechequor is actually taking in less money and maybe exacerbating the debt.

The Treasury is estimating that the 50p rate lost over £7 billion to the exechequor.

Or maybe there is no one paying tax anymore, despite the increase in employment?

85% is a very wide percentile

Difficult to understand when 1% contribute 25% of all the state money that is spent (teachers, doctors, Whitehall etc)

Plus spending money on goods bought from countries where people work for less than they would work for is hardly fair and equitable

Nice discussion going on in Agricultural circles too, many may go to the wall unless food prices rise. Asset rich (+ mortgage), cash poor

''Difficult to understand when 1% contribute 25% of all the state money that is spent ''.

Is that true? I've seen it quoted, but it puzzles me. It would imply that about £150B of the £600B in Government receipts is coughed up by the 1%. Given that Government receipts include income tax. NI, VAT, excise duty, inheritance tax etc etc, it seems an extraordinary statistic. Now I can believe they cough up 25% of income tax, but income tax is only 25% of Government receipts - all the other 'taxes' make up the remaining three-quarters.

So I suppose my question is does this refer to their contribution to income tax? If so we need to caveat that with income tax being only a quarter of receipts and note how much they cough up in the other three-quarters to get a true picture. Which may of course come out at 25% in total, or 150B.

And of course, I may well be talking nonsense. That wouldn't be the first time!

Richard Broughton

Everyone talking about Lindsay Hoyle "hero of the budget" today. I remember his dad Doug. MP for Nelson & Colne once.
Mainly for this - classic study of dissembling and weasel words.
Lord Hoyle of Warrington

I particularly like this bit...
Lord Hoyle now says he was not "specifically paid for [the] sole purpose" of introducing Mr Wood to the minister. But he could not identify any other services he provided. He said he had done "very little" for Mr Wood, who would ring up occasionally and talk "mainly about football".

The budget is rapidly unraveling - No one will deny that the 20% 5 year interest free deposit loan will be available to wealthy second home buyers. What's all the fuss about a penny of a pint? Might have mattered when it cost 2 bob a pint, but at £3.00+ it's surely of no consequence. Can someone who is not a politician explain to me how I am better off because fuel has not gone up by the 13p/litre which would have been the result of following Labour's policy. I paid £84 to fill my vehicle recently - this was a Personal Best, it's not long since my record was £55. That's the reality of the situation.

Isn't it good to have somewhere to have a little rant......

Mr Kwarteng, the nice Con MP for some seat in Surrey or other, has suggested public sector pay be cut by 10%. Citing the National Govt's doing the same in 1931 (when the state was far smaller, we had no NHS, and resulted in a mutiny in the navy). But that's all by-the-by.

Last year, MPs argued they needed a 32% pay rise (or thereabouts). The good MP should tell us how he voted. I actually think MPs should be paid more, by some margin, but hey I don't bang on about 10% less for everyone else on the public bill. Not that I'm unhappy about having the argument, from an 'all in it together' perspective, of course. I remember last year arguing with a Trade Union friend that an across the board cut (of a magnitude to be agreed), with those affected adjusting their behaviour appropriately, may be preferable than holding out and consigning more than a few to penury through inevitable redundancy.

I rather suspect the good MP's view stems from a less pragmatic place (should it be felt of course, my suggestion was pragmatic). He probably cares very little for paramedics and whatnot, that's all. Never even met one of their ilk probably (being ex-Eton, Cambridge and Goldman Sachs).

Mind you, it's a lot of money to take out of a tanking economy........

Richard Broughton

Austerity? Where?

Ireland has cut its Govt spending by 19% since the crash. I'm presuming that Spain, Portugal and Greece have done likewise.

In the UK spending is up 3% over the same period

In the US they say they are spending more, when in actual fact they are fiscally contracting

Always look beyond the politics

Govt Treasury figures

I believe Guido had them up yesterday

Devilish Budget Details , somewhat shunted into early years of next parliament , are changes ( again ) to State Pension. Somewhat glossed summary of confusing situation basically pay more ( in NHI over years for 35 years up from 30 years ) , get less ( about £144 - just over pension credit limit - so you wont get auto council tax support - compared with previous estimates of £189 per week ) - A Tax Increase in all but name , really.


Help - To - Buy Schemes : - "Designed to overcome obstacles in the mortgage market that were stopping people from getting finance"
Funny always thought Tories wanted less nanny state and more market forces happening.

Realistically some extra costs of new build houses has been things like local contributions for Roads , Education and So on , thinking that the developer paid , in reality its the homebuyer - paying twice - once on house purchase , then on council tax.

Futher cash into treasury ( or less paid out ) , not announced as previous plans announced at other times , concerning cuts in benefits to disabled persons ( see CarersUK analysis ) and the dogs breakfast of local council tax support ( changed from Council Tax Benefit ) . Tories taking us back to poor relief on the parish , rather than a national sharing , Labour strangely (not) slient on the matter. ( Minor change from mid 2013 re pension credit claims - only valid if both parties in marriage &similar , are of state pension age - was if one was one could claim. )

What would actually make sense would have been to keep the Council Tax Benefit system ( it must have cost local authorities - i.e. existing Council Tax Payers , millions in the creation of unreadable paperwork , often distressing to older persons receiving yet more complex changes ) , as a national one, but to create a local mortgage interest / deposit support scheme as local authorities have a rough idea of the need for new build or additional home-ownership in their economic areas.

Some very interesting thoughts being voiced about departments delaying paying bills and authorisation of expenditure to get the economy under the bar for the budget.
My 85% is an educated guess, the principle holds true no matter what the true figure. The poorest spend their cash, they have to.
Average wage rises running at 1.2%, this means a negative figure for the lowest paid with the highest proportion of expenditure on essentials which are nearer 10% inflation. So disposable incomes falling and the cuts haven't finished yet.
Much criticism of pumping money into housing which is already over=priced. Fear is that this will hold prices up instead of allowing them to fall to an economic figure.
Meanwhile, in another part of the forest. Cyprus accelerates towards melt-down as EU sets deadline of Monday for the agreement of a bail-out plan. Very few think that this can be achieved without the EU making the terms better. To quote Ed, is there any activity they could run in a brewery that would work?
08:00. Cypriot finance minister confirms what experts were saying earlier. The Russian money isn't going to happen so he's on his way home. There is no solution in prospect and the banks will have to open on Tuesday. Cyprus may be small but what happens there could quickly spread through the Mediterranean. The EU rescue plans are unravelling at frightening speed. Someone will have to move, question is who and in what direction. Germany isn't coming out of this at all well, other EU members are asking how much of this is down to internal German politics where the electorate seem to have had enough of paying out for what they see as feckless countries.

Interesting words from the IFS

Found a bit more budget/ autumn statement detail. While the headline rate of additional income tax falls from 50% to 45% , there are some further restrictions on tax reliefs to pension funds and some similar ( not many taxpayers affected ) , the rise in personal tax allowances to £10K is part paid by a fall ( which is increased by an inflationary % ! ) on the rate at which the higher rate (40%) of tax kicks in, so some of the alleged 'squeezed middle ' will be expected to pay some more tax. Proves really that The Treasury is running the chancellor rather than the other way round , as headline policies actually can end up costing the targeted 'group' more , not less.

Realistically I would guess the rate of take up of the mortgage deposit loan guarantees not to be anywhere near the estimated figures , and they are more a subsidy to the banks rather than to the borrower - its a policy designed to catch (favourable) headlines rather than deliver meaningful change - My idea of a lower rate of VAT for labour element of home improvements/extension would get more local money shifted around faster , must remember to write to Balls on this.

I thought that the ratio of UK Debt to GDP was about the same as Cyprus Debt to its GDP , so UK is hardly in a position to throw stones.

My understanding of delaying payments is that it should not affect Resource Budgeting reporting ( We always had three reports to file - Committed Spend, (Value of Contracts signed for ) Cash Spend (how much of the contract value had been paid , and ?Incurred? Spend (how much of the contract value had been billed and agreed as due for settlement ) [ cannot remember the formal dept name for it ] . Over the years the treasury , on tax reciepts , has brought forward dates due from taxpayers , which has resulted in distortion net cash receipts from comparison years , but now there is very little wriggle room left.

Cypriot government stitches together another deal which they hope will satisfy the EU and allow them to get a package in place by Monday. 'Stitches' is the operative word, at the moment it looks like robbing the pension funds, losses of 20% to 40% to bank shareholders because of 're-structuring' and still the expectation of levy on at least the large account holders. Strict control of private capital will be introduced. Observers are sanguine about the prospects but I suppose some sort of face-saving formula will be agreed over the weekend. The bottom line, no matter what the elements, are that Cyprus is buggered and the tax payers will eventually pay the bill. The dream of making Cyprus a sort of Mediterranean tax haven has gone up in smoke and the residual damage to the EU, no matter what happens, is enormous. It has become evident that Germany favours bank levies and tight control of capital. What does this say for other economies in the EU. Is it going to help get central control of budgets? Is it going to help further federalisation? Both these are important because in the long run, the single currency can't survive unless there is central control. This train wreck continues.
Meanwhile, here in the UK I have come to the conclusion that we are now in a worse state than at any time in the inter-war years. I think back to the heady days when Godron was speaking to the City banquet lauding the skills of the money-managers and the benefits of the 'New Economy'. The more funny money circulated the higher the tax take and the more the economy overheated, the easier it was to govern, just spend the money! How could this have been allowed to happen. Still the big unanswered question. It is this debt which is the millstone round our necks and despite the reassuring words of our leaders it is at the moment holding the economy flat and if not addressed will eventually start to drag us under as assets degrade and productivity and innovation dry up. God! What a mess!
(Always remember 'external events Dear Boy'. There are plenty of adverse ones out there waiting to happen so factor them into the equation.)

Lord Mandy has somewhat laid into Gordon & Ed Balls. Some very plain language.

Wondering if he wants Baroness Ashton's position, now that she is 'retiring'?

Cyprus seems to have been burnt by their loans to Greece. Don't fully understand it, but incompetance of the previous 'communist' government is a good headline for politics. Certainly doesn't help the other struggling Eurozone countries. At least there don't appear to be any 'bonds' involved here

Cyprus and the EU seem to be moving towards a sticking plaster big enough to stave off the nuclear option of leaving the EU. Nobody is quite sure about the various elements but they appear to include raiding pension funds and a 'levy' of at least 25% on major depositors (could be more if other sources prove inadequate). One factor seems to be lack of sympathy for these depositors because they are mainly Russian offshore funds taking advantage of the lax Cypriot financial system. Not clear of course how closely these are connected to Russian government and the ramifications of this move are beyond me. The only thing that is clear is that this new ploy of raiding deposits, whether you call it a 'levy' or a 'tax' appears to be a German initiative and it raises questions about the security of deposits in other banks within the Eurozone. Looking beyond Cyprus this looks like the biggest mistake so far in the EU project which is bad news for the global economy. When you think back, all this started in the genesis of the project. They knew then that financial integration was not possible without a federal system and central control of budgets but the prize of the EU was too attractive and they went forward anyway. This was a slow-burner and could be managed as long as the economies weren't under stress. Unfortunately we have had 2008 and there is a now no certainty that the project can survive. This is the real danger and is down to bad management by the politicians and the Lords of the Universe. Could turn out to be one of the biggest cock-ups in history. (And don't think it won't affect the UK. Tin Hats on Lads!)

As expected, Cypriot bail out has been approved. The two major banks are to be 'restructured'. What this actually means is that the shareholders lose their investment and the holders of deposits over €100,000 lose at least 40% of their money. IMF are backing this and there will be no vote in the parliament. This gets the EU of the hook temporarily but not Cyprus, nothing has changed, they are still insolvent. Once again, it looks as though the problem has been kicked into the long grass. The question is, how much longer can the EU continue to stave off 'events' like this?

Little sister living in Cyprus, and a brit paper reader says that what we are reading, and what she is seeing, are a long way apart. Proof again that newspapers are for entertainment and should not be used as sources of imformation.

hartley353 wrote:Little sister living in Cyprus, and a brit paper reader says that what we are reading, and what she is seeing, are a long way apart. Proof again that newspapers are for entertainment and should not be used as sources of imformation.

As ever, the dead tree press always have an agenda

The BBC is discussing the NHS?

Someone actually stated that we can no longer run it without putting up taxes. A very brave man. he didn't explain why we should pour even more money in to enrich doctors more without any noticeable improvement in service or outcomes.

The minutiae of the Cypriot bail out gradually become clear and the two subjects of comment in Europe are the inclusion of private investments in the bail out package and the new restrictions on capital transfer and export. Especially as the Dutch finance minister let it slip yesterday that the Cypriot bail out could be the template for all further rescues, the markets reacted immediately and he was forced to 'clarify' his statement. He didn't mean what he said..... Uncertainty about capital security is the biggest threat to global stability and this is a serious matter.

Tardis wrote:Someone actually stated that we can no longer run it without putting up taxes. A very brave man. he didn't explain why we should pour even more money in to enrich doctors more without any noticeable improvement in service or outcomes.

The brave man is correct. It's not to enrich doctors, it's needed to employ more doctors and nurses and to buy more of the unavoidably expensive equipment from which we, the public, are benefiting. Demand for medical treatment is expanding rapidly and the only way to meet the demand is to raise taxes. Doctors and nurses won't work for less, there are too few of them for a start. Doctors' salaries will always be high as long as we have a shortage of doctors - the answer is to get more school-leavers into medical school, but that means improving education and removing obstacles to entry to medical schools.

I agree Tiz. The NHS is the envy of the world and all some people do is carp about it. Of course it isn't perfect, never was and never will be but it provides treatment free at the point of delivery cheaper than any other system in the world.
The Cypriot finance minister says that restrictions on capital transfer are 'temporary'. Really........

The NHS has never been self sufficient in doctors from Universities. There aren't enough course places offered initially, and remember these are supposed to be part paid for by fees now. A level grades have gone up from 3x C to 3 A now to get into medical college.

Instead we take the resources of other countries as if we were still a colonial power and say that we benefit those individuals without reference to the harm done in their home countries that have invested their own resources in that individual.

The majority of the money that went into the NHS under Labour, when we paid extra taxes, did not go into patient care.

The acute section of the NHS is good, the self contracted GP service is not and chronic care is simply abysmal. No one should have to be paid a huge salary to be treated as a human being. 10 years now and still no improvement

The scandal of the CQC is even now about to be revealed

No mention in announcement about the closure of the Borders Agency about how budget cuts have affected the operation.
Much criticism of the way the government is using immigrants as a scapegoat. 17% of UK nationals apply for housing and unemployment benefits, only 7% of immigrants. In the case of East Europeans this amounts to just over 13,000 claims, a very low figure. (Extracted by EU from the governments own statistics)

I understand that the 7% mentioned, are the Eastern Europeans. It is noticeable that in the media it is always the EU immigrants that are mentioned when it comes down to statistics. But then it is not PC to mention the other much larger group, is it?!!!

Chris Bryant recently pointed out that migrants into this country are more likely to be in work than British people. 6.6 per cent of working-age non-UK nationals were claiming benefits, compared with 16.6 per cent of working-age UK nationals. This is from all origins. He was criticising Grayling's figures which were confined solely to East European immigrants, probably because the current concern is the new accession countries. Both MPs used the government statistics.
Reports that the roll-out of the Universal Credit is not going well. Only one pilot scheme still running. Government says that nevertheless it will be introduced nation-wide in October.