OneGuyFromBarlick

At last - an expert says what I've been thinking /guessing for ages now.

Reaching herd immunity is “not a possibility” with the current Delta variant, the head of the Oxford Vaccine Group has said.

Giving evidence to MPs on Tuesday, Prof Sir Andrew Pollard said the fact that vaccines did not stop the spread of Covid meant reaching the threshold for overall immunity in the population was “mythical”.
“The problem with this virus is [it is] not measles. If 95% of people were vaccinated against measles, the virus cannot transmit in the population,” he told the all-party parliamentary group (APPG) on coronavirus.
“The Delta variant *** will still infect people who have been vaccinated. And that does mean that anyone who’s still unvaccinated at some point will meet the virus … and we don’t have anything that will [completely] stop that transmission.”
Although the existing vaccines are very effective at preventing serious Covid illness and death, they do not stop a fully vaccinated person from being infected by the virus that causes Covid-19.
The concept of herd or population immunity relies on a large majority of a population gaining immunity – either through vaccination or previous infection – which, in turn, provides indirect protection from an infectious disease for the unvaccinated and those who have never been previously infected.

PS *** after 'the Delta variant' I'd add - 'or any subsequent variant which comes along' - just like the Common Cold does which is also a tyoe of Coronavirus.

PPS The BBC headlline for the same information is "Oxford-jab chief criticises UK's Covid booster plan".
I'd classify that as 'spin' and will try to keep working it all out for myself. Unlike the BBC my only agenda is my welfare.

That place Marburg gets around doesn't it?

I suspected what Prof Sir Andrew Pollard said was true if there were cases of vaccinated people getting the Delta variant. Thanks for posting that David. Like you, my only agenda is survival!
I knew I'd heard that word Marburg before..... .

Tripps wrote: ↑10 Aug 2021, 18:18 ...just like the Common Cold does which is also a type of Coronavirus.

About 20% of colds are due to coronavirus, the rest are rhinoviruses, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza, and 10-20% are still so far unidentifiable: LINK

Thanks for pointing that out.

I think this is relevant as we 'transition' (word of the year) from it being a 'crisis' to a 'just part of daily life' scenario.

Professor Paul Hunter, from the University of East Anglia, said the way infections are reported might need to change as Covid-19 becomes endemic so that people are not “frightening ourselves” with high numbers “that actually don’t translate into disease burden”.
He told the the session: “I think we need to start moving away from just reporting infections, just reporting positive cases admitted to hospital, to actually start reporting the number of people who are ill because of Covid, those positives that are symptomatic.
“We need to be moving towards reporting hospital admissions that are admitted because of Covid, not because they just happen to be positive and they’re being admitted for something else.”
He said the distinction in someone being ill with Covid or because of Covid is not always an easy one to make for clinicians, but added: “I think we’ve got to start moving to that, otherwise as infection becomes endemic we are going to be frightening ourselves with very high numbers that actually don’t translate into disease burden.”

I begin to wonder what they are going to put in this Autumn's Flu vaccine. The usual method of tailoring it to the most recent Australian version can't work, as I believe that there has been no flu in Australia for their last two winters.

No doubt our home grown Buffoon will be shouting out 'Get Covid Done' with arms outstretched and thumbs in the air. But we all know it'll be like 'Get Brexit done' It will be with us for years.

I've had an invitation to get my autumn flu jab from Well. Does anyone know if any decision has been made about the booster Covid jab?

Not yet Stanley, did you get your flu jab at Well last year?

Yes, the health centre were so slow with information. I might register with them this year....

19th September for us last year at the surgery, just checked back in the medical thread. It would make sense to combine it with a booster covid jab if it could be managed. It's gone a bit quiet on that front lately from the government.

I have to go to Well for prescription drugs this morning so I think I'll register for the Flu jab while I am there.

I think these numbers are probably correct.

13th August 2020= 916 cases & 11 deaths (Seasonal decline in infection with no vaccine yet avaiable)

13th August 2021= 32,700 cases & 100 deaths (After large proportion of population 'double jabbed' )

What's a chap to make of it all?

Tripps wrote: ↑14 Aug 2021, 11:38 I think these numbers are probably correct.

13th August 2020= 916 cases & 11 deaths (Seasonal decline in infection with no vaccine yet available)

13th August 2021= 32,700 cases & 100 deaths (After large proportion of population 'double jabbed' )

What's a chap to make of it all?

I haven't been keeping up with the UK Covid figures and I'm surprised to see the picture is still so bad. I hope it improves quickly if herd immunity develops as expected. I suppose a good proportion of the unvaccinated could be anti-vaxxers and irresponsible in their social distancing behaviour.

From a post above -

Tripps wrote: ↑10 Aug 2021, 18:18 Giving evidence to MPs on Tuesday, Prof Sir Andrew Pollard said the fact that vaccines did not stop the spread of Covid meant reaching the threshold for overall immunity in the population was “mythical”.

So there'll be no herd immunity, and being vaccinated does not prevent infection or transmission. Happily it does seem to reduce hospitalisations and deaths.

chinatyke wrote: ↑14 Aug 2021, 13:47 irresponsible in their social distancing behaviour.

As I understand it there are no social distancing rules at all or restriction on gatherings in place now.

Tripps wrote: ↑14 Aug 2021, 14:08

chinatyke wrote: ↑14 Aug 2021, 13:47 irresponsible in their social distancing behaviour.

As I understand it there are no social distancing rules at all or restriction on gatherings in place now.

We are the same in our part of the World, but even if rules are not mandatory it is still sensible to wear a mask and take personal precautions like distancing in certain situations. Unfortunately not everyone agrees. All you can do is try and keep yourself safe, which seems to be the practice of everyone on OGFB.

I agree Graham. I am taking the same precautions that I used in lockdown. Particularly the social distancing and avoiding as far as possible being indoors with other people. I wouldn't dream of going to a crowd event outside or any indoors gathering like a pub or even a restaurant. What some, particularly the young, don't realise is that Covid is still there in the same concentration it was during the height of the pandemic. The only thing that has changed is the effect it has on people because so many have been vaccinated. In addition long Covid though not properly understood yet, is a real threat even to younger people and is more prevalent than is reported from what I can see.

Stanley wrote: ↑15 Aug 2021, 02:30 In addition long Covid though not properly understood yet, is a real threat even to younger people and is more prevalent than is reported from what I can see.

Genuinely interested to know your source for the 'more prevalent than is reported' incidences of long covid.

Because my daughter's consultant has told her that he is seeing many more patents with problems connected to disturbed immune response like the Sarcoidosis she has (which is incurable see THIS). Like many others she has been referred to a Long Covid clinic, these have been set up to investigate whether these illnesses are actually a consequence of Covid or vaccination. At the moment nobody is sure.
My version is that it's a bit of a coincidence that people are going down with problems connected to immune response after having vaccines that modify these responses. Because they are not understood, these cases aren't being reported or used statistically. The young seem to be just as prone to these problems, indeed there may be a case for saying they are more at risk than the old.

Thank you for that, I have younger family members who have had covid and it's useful to know of any potential long term issues.

The first symptom Susan had was breathlessness and the first diagnosis was lung cancer. It took a week of tests to nail the cause down it is so rare.

No cause was found for my breathlessness. I had a number of tests, culminating in angioscopy, but the conclusion was that it was genetic because my mother had it and it began at the same time of life. Fortunately, after 10 years it hasn't got significantly worse.

Tizer wrote: ↑16 Aug 2021, 09:19 No cause was found for my breathlessness. I had a number of tests, culminating in angioscopy, but the conclusion was that it was genetic because my mother had it and it began at the same time of life. Fortunately, after 10 years it hasn't got significantly worse.

Get heart function check done.

Tizer wrote: ↑11 Aug 2021, 09:37

Tripps wrote: ↑10 Aug 2021, 18:18 ...just like the Common Cold does which is also a type of Coronavirus.

About 20% of colds are due to coronavirus, the rest are rhinoviruses, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza, and 10-20% are still so far unidentifiable: LINK

Would help, not that deaths from colds are common, if the main virus identified is specified on death certificates (particulary pneumonia which appears to be a catch-all for many ills, and influenza, which again is commonly simplified) . speaking of flu and the vaccine for that I suppose same as last year for those that didnt get a flu jab then, and a best guess for what might be in vietnam/china or japan. Given we have not had international travel in substance - particulary long stay shipping cruses flu will mainly be what kids in school pick up then pass around. I'll ponder covid vaccine side effect later but note that those reported seem to parallel some of the effects of C-19 itself, particulary one affecting the skin.

PanBiker wrote: ↑12 Aug 2021, 09:34 It's gone a bit quiet.... lately from the government.

Indeed its back to announce now, act (maybe) later. One example is the vaccine rollout in children 12-15, where it seemed a week ago that programme was ready, then reports of kids eligible not being able to get a C-19 vaccine, now the promise of a jab or an offer of one seems to be planned as Aug 23rd at earliest, too late for effectiveness for those returning to school.

Just a thought, If you take up any of the covid vaccines is any element of it passed on with a blood transfusion. Would the refuseniks become double refuseniks and quickly die off.

We can but hope Ken....

I have my Flu jab booked with Well pharmacy (October 7) and they say that if there is a Covid Booster it will be given at the same time.