POLITICS CORNER

[Stanley]

If you ever doubted my contention that politics is almost wholly driven by suspect economics, look at what is going on at the moment. May is in the Middle East drumming up trade (mostly armaments) with some of the most repressive regimes in the world. Remember the arguments about 'Merchants of Death' in the inter war years? I'm afraid the trade is still alive and well. Spreadsheet Phil is in India trying desperately to persuade them that London is the go-to destination if they want to raise funds to finance their modernisation. Big problem there is that in return they will want easy access by their citizens to the UK, bit of a problem when you consider that one of the things that has made this flurry of activity necessary is the demand by part of our electorate to cut immigration and 'foreigners taking our jobs'.
Meanwhile the bleeding hearts report that Assad has one again used chemical weapons against the 'rebels' in Syria. One of Obama's big failures as President was to set a red line whereby use of chemical weapons would trigger US retaliation but when it came to the point he did nothing. Assad now assumes he is bullet-proof and the consequences are easy to see, he has read the international attitudes and it looks as though he has got it right. Lots of talking going on about how terrible it is (Big meeting in Brussels today) but does this mean that any meaningful action will be taken? Not unless Putin triggers it is the answer (He claims that the poisons were liberated when a rebel arms factory was attacked but the White Helmets say they identified Syrian jets firing the rockets that caused the problem. Take your pick.). I hold no brief for Putin or his actions but it can't be denied that in terms of his foreign policy ambitions in the Crimea, Ukraine and now the Middle East he has made the West look like amateurs.
Then there is the small matter of Trump rattling his sabre at North Korea...... God knows where this will end up.
My question is how bad do things get before someone asks the question "Taking into account what is happening, are we looking at WW3?" The only difference is that we are looking at events in small countries far away. Now where have I heard that one before?
Sorry to be so pessimistic but I can't see any light in the gloom.....

[Stanley]

I meant to watch the Panorama programme last night on the new Universal Credit but got side tracked, I shall watch it tonight. This has been bothering me for a while despite all the reassuring and anodyne responses from IDS when questioned about it. It seems to me that under the guise of the laudable intent to 'help' (force?) people back into work it is simply a way of reducing welfare spending. Funnily enough I agree with the intention to cut back on the indirect subsidy to employers by the fact that their employees low wages are made up to a living wage by the government Income Credit scheme but don't believe it should be done indirectly by lowering the level of support to working families. I realise that I am conflating two different policies here but the effect is the same, more austerity for those who can least afford it.
There is another matter that worries me. Have you noticed the number of reports from Parliamentary Committees which slam the government for the failure of their policies? Everything from nursing and teaching training to MOD procurement. Many of the ills are caused by outsourcing the responsibilities to private companies, often US based and with dodgy records at home. Look at the horror stories coming out of the private care sector and prison service. The response from government is lame excuses, 'lessons have been learned' and a general dismissal of these often authoritative and valid criticisms. Isn't it time that these reports were given better than advisory status? I can't remember hearing any admission of failure even when it is obvious this has happened. The stock response is to throw statistics at the questioners and then ignore them.
My question is, is any official government response worth anything? Are we simply being ignored? Is this any way to run a society?

[Tizer]

Here's a different view on Trump, Syria and poison gas attacks...
`Syria chemical 'attack': Is Trump partly to blame?' LINK
"There is an argument that the Trump administration's "hands-off" approach to Bashar al-Assad emboldened the Syrian President to carry out atrocities like the chemical attack for which he's being blamed. The hawkish Republican Senator John McCain is among those making it. He cites as particularly damaging recent comments by Rex Tillerson, the secretary of state said that the "longer-term status of President Assad will be decided by the Syrian people", backing off Barack Obama's initial rallying cry that "Assad must go."

[Stanley]

And the danger is that the weathercock policies of Trump may lead him to advocate attacks on Assad's assets, particularly planes and airfields.... If he does it will be unilaterally and without warning. Tin hats on lads.
I watched the programme on the Credit Cap last night and was disturbed by the Tory lady spokesperson who refused to acknowledge that the cap was making some families homeless and replied by parroting the party line on how it was better for the kids to see their parents working. Problem is of course that she is right, it is better but it's a hell of a way to make it happen.
The other thing that disturbed me is the fact that the actual cause of the current problem, and I share reservations about a single parent who has had seven children and not worked for I think it was 17 years, is a system that drove these people into these circumstances. Start with inadequately funded primary education, add 'improvements' in technology that reduce the number of jobs available to the unskilled, chuck in starvation wages for those that are there and you finish up with benefit and food-bank dependent families. If I am right about this we are at the moment creating an entirely new generation of this underclass.
Meanwhile a small percentage of fortunate people at the top of the pyramid do quite well thank you and sales of luxury goods increase. Marx and Piketty had it right!
Later. I got it right. See THIS News is coming in that US aircraft have put 59 Tomahawk missiles into the air base that is thought to have been the origin of the chemical weapons attack. The Russians were warned first and no doubt passed on information to Assad so it's likely that there will have been an evacuation before the strike but it's still a clear signal to Assad. Watch this space......

[Tizer]

I wonder if it suited Trump to strike Syria just as he was meeting with the Chinese leader who was expecting to hear that North Korea had fired a missile during his visit, not the US firing 59 missiles. Trump might think it's a show of strength but the Chinese delegation could think it's provocation.

[Stanley]

Excuse me for being a cynic but I saw some images of damaged shelters and a small hole in a runway last night but no destroyed equipment or planes. Of course it was the Syrians who controlled the images and perhaps they have censored them but I see no evidence of significant damage to Assad's air capabilities. Having said that, it may have dented the confidence of the regime. Given the US capabilities for obtaining satellite images I would have thought that they would release evidence of a successful strike if they have it.
Predictable sabre-rattling all round but one has to ask if this advances us anywhere nearer the only viable solution, a political one. The only winners so far in terms of their political ambitions are Assad and Putin.

[Tripps]

You be as cynical / sceptical as you like. You would think that with present scale of instant communications we would all be a lot better informed. Doesn't seem to going that way though. No shortage of conspiracy type theories though. I hope this doesn't sound like another one. Just my reaction to events.

I listen to and watch a lot of news etc. When this attack was first mentioned - they said 'chlorine gas', and accompanied reports with horrible pictures of suffering children. Then reports changed to 'sarin nerve agent' but video of volunteer rescuers attending to victims - picking them up, and washing them down, showed them to have no protective clothing etc whatever. Anyone picking up a victim, would themselves rapidly become one too.

I saw a programme about Porton Down recently including a clip of an experiment on a live sheep which died within minutes of sarin being put on its skin. I also remember the protective NBC suits and rubber gloves that we wore in the 60's, one day a month, to practice defence against this threat.

Coverage now seems to have settled on 'chemical' attack.

[Stanley]

I agree David, however the one thing that I believe with certainty is that some form of chemical weapons are being used by Assad. There is a noble tradition of this in the Middle east. We used redundant mustard gas shells to quell insurrection in what was then Mesopotamia after WW1. Churchill went so far as to comment that they seemed to have a 'Good Effect'. (See David Omissi. 'Air Power in the 1930s') Saddam used chemical warfare on the Marsh Arabs. See also reports that the precursor chemicals were sold to Saddam by a US firm which I think was controlled by Donald Rumsfeld in the days when he was a 'good guy'.
Apart from anything else, I don't see how anyone can argue that Assad is anything but a curse to the poor people of Syria. We kept quiet for too long because it suited our interests in the region. It's a very old story and goes back even further that the 1930s. See our actions in Northern India and Afghanistan when the threat was the 'Russian Bear' and their access to India. Remember Sir Charles Napier's famous one word telegram to his superiors 'Peccavi' ( Latin for I have sinned) after he annexed the province of Sind on his own initiative. Then add in the activities throughout that region of the Seven Sisters, the oil companies.
It may be that an even more cynical view is that we are reaping what we have sown after so many years of ruthless exploitation of 'inferior races'. Empire building and economic exploitation at its finest!

[Tizer]

I guess it's possible that a conventional bomb or shell hitting a building or a truck could release vapour or particles that might injure humans in a similar way to poison gas. If the explosion blew up containers of chemicals such as herbicides or pesticides for example, or even by vaporising plastics, toxic metals etc. Blood samples are needed for analysis to detect possible nerve gases having been used.
----------------------------------------

A comment by A.L. Kennedy this morning caught my attention. She said that most people now view the world through Facebook and Twitter. They don't see what's really going on, only what the social media feed them. We've known this for a while but her statement in the context of present and recent events seemed all the more significant. Her 10-minute `Point of View' can be heard here: LINK

[Tripps]

" (See David Omissi. 'Air Power in the 1930s')"

I agree it was a 'chemical' attack, but I doubt it was sarin. You've mentioned David Omissi before - it caught my interest, and I tried to get his book then. It was very expensive, so no deal, and I even emailed him to suggest in view of the current situation he republish. I got no reply.

The book is even more expensive now - there is just one copy for sale on abebooks, and that is priced at £600. I think it was published by Manchester University press - perhaps it's time for another email - to the publisher this time.

[Tizer]

If this is the book then Cambridge University has a copy: LINK

Some of it is available to read online in Google books: LINK

[Tripps]

Well done Tiz - you have just saved me £600.

I doubt Cambridge would lend me theirs, but the abbreviated extracts from Google books (I never knew that existed) seems to be substantial, and will probably satisfy my curiosity.

I have just bought Uncle Bob's book which emerged from a fishing expedition to abebooks. Looks interesting for a very reasonable £2.80 delivered. Restoration England, 1660-88

[Stanley]

My mate Steve Constantine brought 'Air Power' to my attention many years ago and I searched for years for a copy. I wrote to David and he replied that he had asked CUP to republish but they never did. I wanted to know specifically if he had seen the Churchill memo on the effectiveness of the tactics used and he assured me he had actually held the original in his hands. In March 2012 I found a copy and bought it for £126 as it had been nagging me for so long. I wasn't sure whether I had done the right thing but your news that it is now being offered for £600 seems to indicate I was right!
On another matter.... When the full import of the 2008 disaster became obvious I advocated going onto a war footing and forming a coalition government to deal with it. Of course this went down like a lead balloon. Looking at what has happened since some form of cross party control would have been a good thing, it might just have been that party dogma would have played less of a role and we would not be faced with the aftermath we have now. (I believe that Brexit is a direct consequence of the effects of 2008.)
I remember a commentator saying a few weeks ago when the hot topic was whether Brexit could be negotiated in two years a commentator said that nothing concrete would happen until the parties to the negotiation had had their Easter and summer holidays so six months would be lost immediately and we would see no progress until September. If I have it right Parliament is 'in recess' for Easter and shortly will be off to the seaside for the summer. Is anyone holding their breath waiting for reports?
A report that Bojo has cancelled his scheduled visit to Moscow after 'consulting with his US colleagues' sparked the cynical thought that it could be that he has in fact been warned off by the Trump administration. The last thing they want is the buffoon opening his mouth too wide! Am I being ridiculous?

[PanBiker]

A report that Bojo has cancelled his scheduled visit to Moscow after 'consulting with his US colleagues' sparked the cynical thought that it could be that he has in fact been warned off by the Trump administration. The last thing they want is the buffoon opening his mouth too wide! Am I being ridiculous?

Makes no difference really one buffoon or the other, it's scary stuff either way.

[Tizer]

Well done Tiz - you have just saved me £600.

It gives me great pleasure to know that, thanks for telling me.

[Tripps]

There was just a hint of irony there Tiz. The Bob Bliss book at £2.80 is more in my range of affordability.

A you did with the Omissi book Stanley - I have been seeking a certain book for most of my life. I tried to collect the complete works of a particular author. It was fun pre-ebay, but now it's relatively easy. I'm only about four or five short. One however is very rare, and a copy came up on eBay a couple of months ago - only the second one I've ever seen. The cost just £2850 - I think I'll be waiting a bit longer.

[Stanley]

There will be one out there somewhere David.....
May and Trump having cosy chats on the 'phone to decide the fate of the world. Both of them 'running' countries full of internal problems but more interested in grandstanding.... Not very reassuring....

[plaques]

BBC this morning, Mrs May and Donald Trump have reached an agreement of what Vladimir Putin should be doing in Syria. Thank god for that its about time it was all sorted out. Now all we have to do is tell Kim Jong-Un (North Korea) to behave himself and it will all be tickety -boo.

[Stanley]

Quite P! I see that Sean Spicer has apologised for comparing Hitler to Assad saying that Hitler never used poison gas against his own people..... This reinforces my remarks elsewhere re. a knowledge of basic history. He evidently didn't realise that using carbon monoxide and Cyclon 'B' is a form of chemical warfare.
If you use the Trump/May criteria for assessing the success of diplomatic and political success, Putin is doing well on the world stage. I am reminded of the way Saddam Hussein managed the West in his glory days. I'm still convinced that this was what pissed Bush off so much!
As you know I am deeply sceptical about this perceived need of the UK to 'punch above their weight' on the world stage. I'd be more impressed if we had working frigates and attack submarines...... We have reached the stage where a nation is assessed by how much it spends on weapons. I'd rather see us get kudos for looking after education, health and the underprivileged but then I would wouldn't I.

[Stanley]

If you disregard all the posturing on the world stage there isn't a lot of politics about. However, two things have caught my attention. The first is the air of quiet confidence about an inflation figure of 2.3%. It should be recognised that this index includes items which don't affect the poorest and if you strip them out and look at the inflation rate of the essentials, particularly food and housing prices are rising much faster and the general opinion is that this will continue.
I see that May has announced 'a cap on energy prices'. I'm not sure what this means but, and correct me if I am wrong, I seem to remember a burst of ridicule when Labour announced that this was one of their policies. Has something changed?

[plaques]

I see that America has just dropped 'GBU-43 MOAB bomb' (MOAB = mother of all bombs) on Afghansistan . Link. This is equivalent to 11 tons of TNT with a blast area of a mile. Its not exactly what you may call a smart bomb with a minimum of collateral damage. re: people who happen to be in the area when it went off. We shall never know how many it killed partly because they will never tell us and partly because their bodies will no longer exist. This development is Ok because the Americans are the good guys while Russia and Assad are the bad guys. I wonder what Mrs May will say about this?

[Stanley]

My mind went along the same lines P when I heard they had dropped the MOAB in an attempt to get at ISIS personnel in deep bunkers. The main effect of ordnance like this is the blast and the fact they 'eat' the oxygen in the air and suffocate. Barnes-Wallis' Tallboy and Grand Slam bombs were more effective against underground structures because they penetrated over 30 feet before exploding and one of the affects noted in land use of them during WW2 was that this caused remarkably few surface casualties. Incidentally, the reason why the US never used this design of bomb was that they didn't have a bomber capable of delivering it. Only specially modified Lancasters were capable.
I equate the MOAB with the German use of redundant land mines as aerial bombs, a very blunt and old fashioned instrument of war and symbolic of a mistaken belief that bigger is better. It smacks of a warning to North Korea..... This and the deployment of the carrier force seem to me to be provocation. Remember the Gulf of Tonkin incident? (LINK)
[I did a bit of digging because as you know I have a professional interest in big bangs. The first thing I found was that the phrase "equivalent to 11 tons of TNT" is a bit confusing. The actual weight of the filling is a lot less than this as the explosive used is H6 which is 1.35 times as powerful compared to TNT. The overall weight of the bomb is a shade over 10 tons which is the same as the Grand Slam. It was designed not as a strategic weapon like the Grand Slam but as a psychological weapon for the 2nd Iraq War, in other words in line with 'Shock and Awe'. This leads me to suspect that this is what is going on here, 'mine is bigger than yours'. This accords exactly with what I believe is the simplistic mind set of Donald Trump. Go figure!]

[Tizer]

This should give our enemies the opportunity to accuse the US of using `weapons of mass destruction'. After all, we've made that accusation of Assad using barrel bombs. I assume it was used out in the desert - anywhere near habitation and outside the initial ring of obliteration the ground would be littered with bodies due to the compression effects of the blast. Outside that ring there would be all the people who didn't die immediately but are left with terrible injuries to internal organs. The US has another such bomb nearly three times bigger. The Russians have their own giant bomb but it's based on a mixture of explosive and fuel. It's not difficult to imagine escalation from these bombs to tactical battlefield nuclear weapons. And then where next? North Korea won't be frightened off by Trump's grandstanding. Let's hope China takes steps to control North Korea.

[Stanley]

The biggest danger is that North Korea has heavy artillery within range of the populated parts of South Korea. Also, did you notice that Trump said that America 'and her allies' would deal with N Korea if the Chinese didn't control them? What will May and Boris do then.....?
I was struck by what the Russian Foreign Minister said the other day. He asked when an American attempt to enable 'freedom and democracy' had gone well. He has a point.
The main characteristic of the Trump administration is their seeming lack of focus. This isn't quite the case. Since getting the Presidency, every initiative Trump has tried, including his budget, has failed. The attack on Syria and this latest threat to N Korea happened because as Commander in Chief, and backed by gung-ho generals, nobody can stop him. These are the only election promises he can fulfil so don't expect him to stop until it is too late. He naïvely believed that POTUS is the most powerful man in the world. He is now dealing with the reality, to govern, you must have accord.

[plaques]

What will May and Boris do then.....?

Mrs May has remained unusually silent on both the American bombing in Afghanistan and the war of words about North Korea. Its about time we got some idea about where we stand on these issues.