CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Tizer » 17 Dec 2018, 09:54

Little has been said in the past about the contribution of the cement industry to CO2 emissions and when it was mentioned the usual figure was 5% of the total. Now that has been updated to 8%...
`Climate change: The massive CO2 emitter you may not know about' LINK

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Stanley » 18 Dec 2018, 06:18

When you think of the amount of concrete being poured as the developers move ever faster that's not surprising!
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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Stanley » 23 Dec 2018, 05:07

See THIS Guardian report of the Tsunami in Indonesia. Not strictly global warming but a reminder that nature is all powerful when it stirs. Krakatoa has long been a destructive force!
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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Tripps » 23 Dec 2018, 10:49

Stanley wrote:
23 Dec 2018, 05:07
Not strictly global warming
Yes :smile:
Born to be mild. . .

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Tizer » 23 Dec 2018, 10:56

Agreed, it's not global warming but for the sake of somewhere to post this, here it is. It's a bit too serious for some of the other topics at Xmas! :smile:

I had a strange sense of deja vu this morning when I heard the news about the tsunami in the Sunda Strait between Java and Sumatra. I've been slowly reading Simon Winchester's book `Krakatoa: The Day the World Exploded' - I tend to read a number of books and magazines in parallel and it can take me weeks to get through a 400-page book. Yesterday I'd been reading the part of Winchester's book where he describes the tsunamis that resulted from the final destruction of Krakatoa in 1883. The overall direct effect of that event was about 36,000 deaths in Java and Sumatra, most of them due to the four major tsunamis. The shock of the final detonation shook buildings 500 miles away and was heard thousands of miles away; the shock wave in the air circled the earth seven times (the pressure monitoring instrument at the Batavia gas works was one of the pieces of evidence for this). We'll have to keep our fingers crossed that this present event isn't a sign of worse to come. In 1883 the rumblings and disturbances of the sea started in May then went relatively quiet until the final explosion in August when the whole mountain of Krakatoa was blown into the sky.

I've learnt that the speed of a tsunami is related to the square root of the water depth. A tsunami in the open ocean where the depth is thousands of feet may be only a few feet high but travels at up to 600mph. As it approaches land the wave front slows down but the water behind is still going fast so the wave is squeezed up to a greater height. On reaching the coast it could be moving at only 20mph but could be 50 to 100 feet high. The slow speed doesn't detract from its destructive capability or from its danger to people - try running uphill at 20mph and dodging obstacles and other people who are in a panic! In 1883 a Dutch warship in the Sunda Strait was carried to the coast then uphill and dumped in land by the first wave of the tsunami. Then it was picked up and taken further inland by another wave. It remained there until the 1980s. (The terms `tsunami' and `sea wave' have replaced `tidal wave' because they are not tidal.)

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Stanley » 24 Dec 2018, 03:26

All that went through my mind as well Tiz.
Re. 'not global warming'. Actually we can't be certain about this, all we know for sure is that in any event like this there is a trigger mechanism. In this case volcanic activity. We know virtually nothing about the causes of such activity, that's why we can't predict it. What we do know is that there is the law of unintended consequences and nobody can say for certain that minute atmospheric and geological changes such as sea level or temperature do not have a part. So, whilst I don't attribute the event directly to climate change I don't discount the fact that it could have a part.
As for another event, what comes to my mind is the steady progress of major earthquakes along the tectonic boundary that runs through Istanbul. Now that is frightening!
Have a look at THIS Guardian video of the volcano before and during the eruption. Short but very impressive!
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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Tizer » 24 Dec 2018, 10:22

There's more here...
`Anak Krakatau: Volcanologist explains Indonesia eruption images' LINK

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Stanley » 25 Dec 2018, 03:25

That's a very good, clear article Tiz. Thanks......
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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Stanley » 26 Dec 2018, 06:20

See THIS BBC report on the ongoing eruption of Mt Etna. I'm glad we haven't got a local volcano!
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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Tizer » 26 Dec 2018, 12:30

Tripps wrote:
23 Dec 2018, 10:49
Stanley wrote:
23 Dec 2018, 05:07
Not strictly global warming
Yes :smile:
That got me thinking...is there any mechanism by which the warming climate could increase volcano and/or earthquake activity? My first thought was no, the atmosphere a couple of degrees warmer isn't likely to affect something which is governed by tectonic plates. Then I realised that the warming oceans would have a better chance of influencing the activity. The Earth's crust is much thinner under the oceans than under the continents and the sea water is mopping up much of the warmth. That warming seems unlikely to make much difference to the miles of basalt rock beneath the ocean but it took me on to thoughts about plate tectonics and could warming affect the movement or position of the plates (and thus earthquake and volcanic activity). What about melting of the polar ice sheets and redistribution of weight?

During the Ice Age the landmass of northern and central Britain was depressed by ice sheets and glaciers miles in depth. At the end of the Ice Age the ice melted away to the oceans and the land rose due to isostatic readjustment (aka glacial rebound) - and is still rising. LINK This flexing of the crust can cause or reactivate geological faults. Could climate change increase volcano and earthquake activity through its effect on the polar ice sheets? There seems to be plenty of evidence that this has happened in the past but over a long time scale. I can't find much information about whether this could take place on a time scale that would affect humans. Most research on the effects of ice loss on volcano activity is concerned with volcanoes that are covered in snow and ice but predictions in that case are that it will increase the activity.

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Stanley » 27 Dec 2018, 04:52

If you look back here's what I said at the time:- "We know virtually nothing about the causes of such activity, that's why we can't predict it." That's why in my signature I always say "beware of certainty". And I never forget the law of unintended consequences so I agree with all you have said Tiz. As for glacial heave, I once mentioned that in the BET and was attacked in the letters column for being fanciful, I had to (regrettably) shoot the critics down with a bunch of references to academic articles. (I lie actually, I quite enjoyed it!)
I watched a two hour film on Youtube last night made 4 years ago about the historic Krakatoa eruption and warning that it could happen again. Excellent presentation and so right!
Remember Chaos Theory..... The system governing plate tectonics is a classic case of chaos where one small event can trigger another larger one and so on ad infinitum. To rule this out is not only unscientific but dangerous. (Keep an eye on Istanbul.....)
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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Tizer » 27 Dec 2018, 11:13

Here is a simplified map showing the distribution of earthquakes, volcanos and tectonic plates. The two areas with the greatest density of volcanos are the east edge of the Asian continent, from Indonesia to Alaska, and the west side of South America. In terms of danger to humans the Asian side is the greater risk due to the high density of population, especially Indonesia and Japan. The graphic comes from this web site which is aimed at schools but is rich in images and information (we can share the fun with kids!).
Image

A concept that I've had to get to grips with in understanding the structure of Earth is the fact that the so-called liquid mantle is really not liquid. It's usually described as molten rock with convection currents in it that move the tectonic plates. Geologists now know that the mantle is solid. The mantle rock is hot enough to be molten but the high pressure maintains it in a solid state. So how does it convect heat and move the plates? Under the high temperature, high pressure conditions the rock does still have a small degree of liquidity, sufficient for it to flow although at an extremely slow rate. But geology isn't in a hurry and the slow currents can take millions of years to move the plates. An analogy for this `mostly solid but a bit liquid state' is the way that glass at ambient temperature flows very slowly - as we know, resulting in old church window glass being ever so slightly thicker at the bottom than at the top. The unusual conditions in the mantle also change the crystal structure of some of the minerals from those we are familiar with up here on top of the crust.

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Stanley » 28 Dec 2018, 04:20

I remember reading somewhere that Lord Kelvin set up an experiment which was an inclined glass tube with a piece of pitch inside it. He argued that the pitch was not a 'frozen' solid but was actually viscous at ambient temperature and would flow in its own time. Which of course it did.
Once upon a time, at Ellenroad, they were having trouble with the bearings on the 86ton flywheel getting hot so they used Castor Oil as a high temperature lubricant. The excess from the bearings ran down the wall of the bed below and as it did it set like black glass. I suspected it was flowing and after we re-concreted the floor next to the bed and sure enough, over about 6 months it flowed onto the new concrete. I got all my MSC lads down there and gave them a seminar on viscosity including the example you mention of very old glass.
Remember the story about the bloke who took precautions by taking all his window glass out and reinstalling it upside down?
When I am machining steel I always have in mind the fact that it is in fact plastic and the molecules are in constant motion down to -273 Absolute. Very noticeable when you are machining cast iron or forged steel to fine tolerances.
So I accept your version of the viscosity of the mantle entirely Tiz. It accords with my own limited observations!
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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Tizer » 28 Dec 2018, 10:12

There's the Pitch Drop Experiment at the University of Queensland: LINK
and the remains of Kelvin's experiments kept at the Hunterian Museum, Glasgow, described towards the end of this BBC article: LINK
and others at the universities of Aberystwyth, Wales and Trinity College, Dublin.

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by chinatyke » 29 Dec 2018, 02:55

I took a gander at the pitch drop experiment and Firefox gave me the warning <A web page is slowing down your browser. What would you like to do?>

Very appropriate.

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Stanley » 29 Dec 2018, 03:52

Fascinating stuff Tiz. Nice to know my memory wasn't playing tricks!
On a similar subject. I was once told at a tank factory that one way they adjusted curved pieces of armour plate to the correct tolerances that allowed them to be replaced in the field, was to lay them on a former and subject them to strong magnetic forces while at ambient temperature. Have you ever come across that?
Later.... Reports coming in that Anak Krakatau lost two thirds of its mass in the eruption, it was 340 meters high but is now around 100 meters. They are certain now that it was the cause of the tsunami.
HERE is the BBC report.
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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Tizer » 29 Dec 2018, 09:45

I've never heard of the armour plate and magnets before.

In the reports on the Java eruption the news media have told us how the 1883 one was much larger but what they haven't mentioned is that the volcanic island that existed before 1883 was the small remnant of an enormous one that went pop tens of thousands of years ago. A bit like the reverse of fleas having smaller fleas... :smile:

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Stanley » 30 Dec 2018, 04:29

:good:
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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Stanley » 03 Jan 2019, 06:39

Looking at the present pattern of weather and thinking about blocking highs leading to the Beast from the East last winter. Are we seeing signs of a change in our climate?
Have you seen THIS report on the increasing numbers of Bluefin Tuna in our coastal waters? The theory is that warmer Atlantic Ocean currents are encouraging this.
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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Tizer » 03 Jan 2019, 09:58

Talking about `blocking highs' makes me think of the jet stream. I read that our understanding of what we now call the jet stream all began with that 1883 eruption of Krakatoa. It put vast amounts of ash into the upper atmosphere which then circulated around Earth. By then scientists had developed instruments that could detect and measure the movement of the ash. The Royal Society had a big project at the time to study all the effects of Krakatoa and it put out requests for data from scientists around the world. That's how they began to understand how air moved at high altitudes. It also encouraged collaboration between scientists worldwide.

Good optical satellite images are now available of Krakatoa's latest event...
`Anak Krakatau volcano: Satellites get clear view of collapse' LINK

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Stanley » 04 Jan 2019, 04:19

Indeed, and I regret that the course of the Jet Stream isn't a feature of our Met Office forecasts.
Those images of Ana Krakatau are superb Tiz. Mind boggling amounts of energy to shift that much of the cone....
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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Stanley » 08 Jan 2019, 05:24

I was reminded of this subject this morning when listening to report on World Service about the international seed bank on Svalbard. (LINK) Well worth listening to again....
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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Tizer » 16 Jan 2019, 10:02

This is an example of the damage caused by the increased intensity and frequency of extreme weather events...
`How one heatwave killed 'a third' of a bat species in Australia' LINK

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Stanley » 17 Jan 2019, 03:59

A sad story indeed Tiz and an example of unexpected effects of climate change on wildlife. Unfortunately this is a common story, I have seen reports about the effects of ocean warming on sea creatures. They swim North for cooler waters for a reason! I remember being impressed by Fruit Bats in NSW at Ulladulla, first time I had ever seen them. (And a big Iguana sunning itself on top of a gatepost!)
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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Tizer » 17 Jan 2019, 10:21

Migration of fish due to past climate changes is well-known, especially herring and mackerel. In early times fishing was done in rivers, lakes and at sea but near the water's edge. As boat building improved they began to fish further out from the coast but within sight of land. When the climate warmed the herring and mackerel migrated further north and that prompted the development of even better boats and eventually sailing up towards Iceland and across the Atlantic for bigger fish.

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