Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

[Tizer]

Dealing with the virus fallout is bad enough but faced with the prospects of a Brexit balls up and negative interest rates, (paying the banks to look after your money), more automation fewer jobs, its difficult to remain optimistic about anything this government says or promises.

Add the US election to your list. For me, that holds the greatest danger of all if Trump gets in again. However I'm optimistic that Biden will win but it needs to be a big, knockout, no room for doubt win. Anything less will spell serious trouble that will have repercussions worldwide. However, take note that our government is sending ministers to talk trade treaties with Biden now, not Trump.

Whoops, I've slipped from covid to politics, but there are unavoidable connections due to the virus being used as political weapon...like this for example...
`US Election 2020: Anthony Fauci says Trump campaign ad quote misleading' LINK
`Top US government scientist Anthony Fauci has said a clip of him used in a Trump campaign advert is misleading. His words that he "can't imagine that anybody could be doing more" to fight Covid-19 appear in the ad to refer to President Donald Trump specifically. But Dr Fauci, who clashed with Mr Trump before on Covid, was actually talking about himself and other staff. The infectious diseases expert said he had never publicly endorsed any political candidate..'.

[Stanley]

I am sure you both have been listening to the latest news. If so neither your mood or temper will have been improved. Basically the rates of infection are rising all over England, the exception being the far SW. It is predicted that the Treasury will keep its money in its pocket. No good news at all.

[Whyperion]

Later, I have just heard that they are testing BCG to see if it has any effect on Covid. I wonder whether the massive doses I was on during my recent immunotherapy treatment for Bladder Cancer count?

In the early days of the pandemic there were reports being propagated on social media claiming that if you'd been vaccinated with BCG it would prevent you from getting covid-19. The WHO very quickly put out a press release stating that it wouldn't prevent infection but that they had two studies under way to determine whether or not giving a BCG injection could help once you'd got the infection by reducing or preventing the severe effects of the covid-19 virus. The WHO studies were promising and now the University of Exeter has started a trial with 1000 participants. They point out the vaccination given in childhood would probably not benefit adults who would need a new vaccination with BCG. In this respect Stanley would presumably benefit from his recent BCG - it wouldn't prevent him getting infected but would help protect him if if he did get covid. The effect of BCG would be more like a drug than a vaccine in that it would alleviate symptoms but wouldn't generate the antibodies and white blood cells to fend off the covid virus.

There is BBC news article here: `BCG: Can a vaccine from 1921 save lives from Covid-19?' LINK

Can you explain how a vaccine I though was for a bacterial infection can assist a treatment against a viral one ? (bigger question I suppose is I thought batcteria would tend to 'eat' whole cells being about cell sized themselves and hence one type of in blood defence system cells would find the bacteria to destroy, in what way can similar immune items latch on relevantly to viral (mainly protein) receptors to destroy virus packages.

[Whyperion]

Wow - two senior members agree with me. That doesn't happen very often if ever.

Just saw an interview with one Dr Helen Stokes Lampard. She is Vice Chair of The Academy of Medical Royal Colleges having been Chair of the Royal College of GP's until last year. Formidable form sheet. In Germany where they use all titles she would have been Frau Professor Doktor Doktor Stokes Lampard. She was asked if she agreed with a previous expert who had said that an immediate 'circuit breaker' lockdown was needed immediately.

'Yes' or 'no' would have done.

Yes, because it triggers the quickest behavioural change in those who can potentially become infected.
No, because a short term one - would it be long enough to eradicate spread (we normally kill animals with foot and mouth for example)
No, because, I think, most of the infection increase has been in fairly enclosed circles of friend, family or educational establishments triggered by a couple of mass moves accross and around the country. This in time , is close to settling down as those with the disease are either dead, recovered or generally not infectious any more (or will be in the next 10 days), the existing rules of if infectious quannentine, apply nothing further needed ( I would allow pubs to close at 11pm after stopping serving at 1opm)

[Whyperion]

I worked for a company, about 3 years ago, looking after hospital software packages. We were unable to upgrade a lot of the NHS packages as they were still using unsupported Microsoft products, Excel being one of them. Don't see whe PHE should be any different. Plonkers .

I have some sympathy with PHE as the rate at which MS embedded itself as the must use (and relatively cheap) program suite , rather than using what were not very reliable and equally difficult to keep up to date ICL / Feranti systems for example from the 1960s and 1970s. Then MS comes along, but does not only expand the amount of data the likes of Excel can address, puts the licence prices up (as it has elminated the Lotus 123 competition), AND changes the mechanisms excel reads incoming file data, excutes macros and so on, and requires people to both maintain their old skill set to understand the old system and learn the new systems ( other commentators suggest should have used MS Access , though ideally an SQL database was needed, but unless they have usable templates they will not be easy to use, at least with excel you can see all the information in front of you. i wondered though why the CSV importing too up a number of rows , normally the data would populate columns, so that did not make sense, unless it was a cut and paste from a PDF file which does use up rows.

[plaques]

Watched Boris Johnson on YouTube, must admit he gave quite a good presentation as long as you didn't know the history or the controlling detail. Followed by 4 mins of Keir Starmer who exposed the previous cock ups and more or less said it still wasn't good enough. I'm still getting the feeling that there will never be a single absolute solution which will stop the virus stone dead. Like most politicians they want to be in charge and control the flow of money preferably into their pals hands. What is becoming clear is that controlling this pandemic is a case of following 'best practice' where local authorities get access to the numbers and can put the effort and money into the areas which will give the best returns. Of course this goes against the grain of letting Labour controlled Councils being seen to out perform central government.

Latest number up date for week ending Oct 9th
Pendle 377 per 100,000
Burnley 499 per 100,000,

If any numbers above 100 per 100,000 puts you in the danger zone both are on the edge of total lockdown. How can anyone run a business with this threat looming over them?

[PanBiker]

In the last few days, I have heard of five friends who have contracted the virus, residents in Barlick and Steeton. Four of them in their 30's and one child.

[Tizer]

Can you explain how a vaccine I thought was for a bacterial infection can assist a treatment against a viral one ?

Yes. BCG has long been known to provide some limited help against other bacteria and viruses. This doesn't require the BCG to interact directly with the target bug, it's simply the BCG boosting what's known as non-specific immunity or non-target immunity. It needn't involve antibodies or white blood cells (lymphocytes). Our bodies have a wide range of defence mechanisms with various modes of action. BCG could trigger one or more of these to deal with an infective agent and studies are in progress to determine how it might work in the case of covid-19.
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I think this report has been made confusing by the BBC taking the man's words out of context. He's not against herd immunity achieved by vaccination but is against `natural herd immunity' achieved by letting it spread throughout the population (which results in many deaths and severe chronic illnesses)...
`Coronavirus: WHO head calls herd immunity approach 'immoral'' LINK
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This should put the cat among the pigeons...
`Covid: Sage scientists called for short lockdown weeks ago' LINK
`The government's scientific advisers called for a short lockdown in England to halt the spread of Covid-19 last month, newly released documents show. The experts said an immediate "circuit breaker" was the best way to control cases, at a meeting on 21 September...'.

[Tripps]

In the last few days, I have heard of five friends who have contracted the virus, residents in Barlick and Steeton.

That's interesting Ian, and my first (indirect) connection to some one who has contracted the virus. i hope they do well, and soon recover.

I saw Blackpool Royal Victoria on TV last night. A lady, very ill in ICU, who sounded bewildered, said she had done everything she should regarding isolation etc yet still ended up there. That's worrying.

Difficult choices for politicians. It's easy to criticise them for not following the science (circuit breaker), but if the chancellor is saying it will bankrupt the country - what to do?

[Tizer]

I saw Blackpool Royal Victoria on TV last night. A lady, very ill in ICU, who sounded bewildered, said she had done everything she should regarding isolation etc yet still ended up there. That's worrying.

Don't let that worry you, Tripps. If it was that easy to get infected we'd all have got it by now. She might think she has done everything correctly but she probably isn't as aware as you are of how to avoid the virus. Some are simply too trusting which is why we see so many phone scams and the like. Stay away from pubs and restaurants and crowded places. Wear your mask in shops. Use hand gel or wear gloves in shops. If you go out for a walk carry a mask just in case you might need it, otherwise keep a few metres away from others. Be careful with stuff coming through the letterbox. I either quarantine it for a couple of days or open it wearing rubber gloves and put the envelopes in the bin. A lot of the contents such as bank statements never see a human hand and will be safe. Ditch direct mail that doesn't come in an envelope. The great majority of people who get infected will be those who don't take care.

By the way, I got an invitation to join the Imperial/NHS/Ipsis antibody survey today and I've just signed up and hope to get a finger prick test kit in the post later this month.

[Tripps]

Yes - I'd factored in most of what you say before declaring I'm worried. I know some people think, and say they are doing the right thing when they're not. In contrast I have virtually no concerns about handling my mail.

I wonder whether the current rules are sufficient. I'm concerned for example that Sue is continuing a full life - within the rules of course - , but I certainly would not be going to a market or eating in restaurants at present even with social distancing.

It seems to me that I must try to live the rest of my life without catching a 'cold'.

About 'double carpet' against I'd say.

********************************
PS I've just gone back through my posts to find this one from July, which is quite like what I wrote above.

So - this seems to support what I said a short while ago - I am working on the basis that there will be no vaccine, and no herd immunity, and so I will have to live the rest of my life without ever catching the equivalent of a 'cold'. Sounds like a tough ask to me especially as the winter is yet to come.

How will it all end? I doubt it will, and we'll live with the problem . I see that people are no longer talking about 'when this is all over' but they are behaving as if it is. A bit premature I'd say.

[PanBiker]

By the way, I got an invitation to join the Imperial/NHS/Ipsis antibody survey today and I've just signed up and hope to get a finger prick test kit in the post later this month.

I wonder if I will get an invite being already "on the books" so to speak with the college hospital?

[Stanley]

All good posts but I think Ken has got it about right. As you know I don't think there is any 'end'. It's out there and it's an illusion to think that it will go away. True, it might mutate and lose it's virulence but I suppose there's the same chance of it getting worse. The truth is we don't know. As Peter says, do your assessment, adopt sensible measures and keep buggering on. I have the great advantage of living on my own and as my doctor Hassan said yesterday in a surprise phone call, my mind-set and the shed is my best guarantee of mental and physical health. He didn't actually say it but I get the impression that he thinks things could be handled better. As Ken alluded, the favoured route is more local control and involvement but that means London devolving control and investment to local councils and they have a pathological hatred of that.
Remember the North/South Divide? I have never seen such disenchantment with central government.

[plaques]

Tier three gets more complicated by the day. Who decides what? It would appear that Boris has ditched his SAGE scientific advisors and gone for another bunch '. Joint Biosecurity Centre's "Gold command" taskforce They apparently do their deliberation and pass it down to the No 10 King Solomon briefing room who will decide whether or not to wack a mole and bring that area into lockdown. All very scientific and democratic except the mole isn't invited to the discussions. Looks like picking a poor sucker out to execute as an example to he rest. Makes you proud.

[Tizer]

By the way, I got an invitation to join the Imperial/NHS/Ipsis antibody survey today and I've just signed up and hope to get a finger prick test kit in the post later this month.

I wonder if I will get an invite being already "on the books" so to speak with the college hospital?

The leaflet said names were chosen at random but I suppose there might be a separate survey specifically on people who have been swab tested.

[Tizer]

Anyone who didn't listen to today's episode of Inside Science needs to download this podcast and listen to the first half of the programme. It's an objective assessment of where the UK has gone wrong compared with several other countries and by someone in the best position to know. It's the first time I've heard the topic covered in depth comprehensively and objectively `warts and all'. (The second half of the programme is very worth listening to but it's unrelated to covid.)

`Inside Science: Test and trace - how the UK compares to the rest of the world' LINK
`From the very start of the Covid pandemic, test and trace has been the mantra. But here in the UK it was started, then abandoned as the number of cases rose too high to manage. It’s now been reintroduced and we’re all being encouraged to download the ‘NHS Covid-19’ phone app which can detect whether you’ve been near an infected person using Bluetooth technology. How have other countries around the world been managing to find, test, trace, isolate and support (FTTIS) their Covid patients? And what lessons can we learn from them? Professor Michael Hopkins at the Science Policy and Research Unit (SPRU), University of Sussex is part of an international team of experts in science policy, social science, medicine, epidemiology and global health that has analysed and compared national testing systems in 6 countries: Spain, South Korea, South Africa, Ireland, Germany and us, in June, July and August. Michael Hopkins told Marnie Chesterton that we all have something to learn.'

[Stanley]

I think I heard the same programme on World Service Tiz and like you thought it made sense.
I fond no reason to argue with Ken's assessment. In case nobody has noticed we have reached the point where, regardless of party allegiance a group of Northern MPs and mayors have united in rebellion against central government. The root of this is Number Ten's pathological refusal to fund local government to act independently.
I doubt if anyone in the most affected areas has any idea what is going to happen at weekend so they are all assuming the worst. It begins to look more and more like a shambles...

[chinatyke]

Meanwhile China gets a few spurious internal cases in Qingdao (where they make good beer) and tests 10 million citizens in 4 days using 4000 testing stations, all results recorded on their track and trace system, and will complete testing of the entire city population (12 million) later today.
Sorry, you can't be half-hearted about the approach to Covid, look how badly USA is doing with their mixed messages and misinformation.
Even if governments don't take it seriously, I'd advise you all to personally take effective measures and not let down your guard.

[Stanley]

I find nothing to argue about there China. Especially your last point, you are right, in the constantly changing messages my defence is to avoid crowded places, preserve strict social distancing and isolation at home and to give n example, I have just been to the Co-op for my weekly shop, mask, gloves and go there as soon as they are open to get the advantage of few other customers. This is going to be my personal regime for the foreseeable future.
It's all common sense really and hopefully a bit of luck!

[plaques]

Inside Science: Test and trace - how the UK compares to the rest of the world' LINK

Amazing really, a few straightforward questions and then straightforward answers. The experts in the coalface can see what is required and why its going wrong. Obviously they are passing this information up to the next level but nobody seems to be taking any notice. There are clear issues about personal information in some of the other countries approach to track and trace but ours is basically under funding of the underlying control infrastructure. This could be a minimum cost approach or the general distaste for anything that smells of socialism.

[PanBiker]

One of the news reports last night showed children going into school depositing phials with saliva specimens into a large plastic box on their way in. Cant remember whether this was Northern Ireland or Wales. Doesn't matter, the point was that this test was a regular job because the results can be produced in a couple of hours. This is obviously much better than the time consuming and invasive for many swab test. It's much simpler to produce so why can't everyone be tested using this method? Peter might have an answer here but it certainly would be a game changer if it could be adopted. Follow that with a pin prick antibody test and you would have a much more robust and accurate testing regime.

[Tizer]

This is obviously much better than the time consuming and invasive for many swab test. It's much simpler to produce so why can't everyone be tested using this method?

As the TV/radio interviewers always say `That's a very good question' Ian! Unfortunately there is no simple answer because there are too many factors at play and less is known about the accuracy of saliva tests for covid in comparison with swab tests. Certainly if enough saliva kits were available then everybody could be tested but that doesn't mean the results would be any use. We need to be sure that the results are reliable and fit for the intended purpose. For example one application for which it would be useful even if the accuracy were not as high as normally required would be for pooled sample testing. That would be were the pooled saliva from a class or bubble was tested - if you got a covid positive result at least you'd know that group had to be treated as potentially infected.

For individual tests there have been mixed results when comparing saliva against swab. Saliva requires the person to have a higher `viral load' than for the swab test and you'll get different results from people at different stages of infection, and between symptomatic and asymptomatic patients. It also depends on which of the viruses genes are the basis for detection. Saliva tests are also affected by recent food or drink which influence the composition of the saliva. Also the nasal cavity holds the virus for longer than the saliva so someone later in infection may give a different result to one at an earlier stage.

All this shows how complicated these things can be and why they have to be careful how tests are used. You'll see this even more if you read through this authoritative article published a week ago. In particular, make a brew and read the later section on college campuses.
`COVID-19 Diagnostics: How Do Saliva Tests Compare to Swabs?' LINK

[Tizer]

An investigation by The Times was mentioned on the radio this morning about Russian material calling Oxford's virus a `monkey virus'. I've copied this from the front page of the paper as shown on the BBC. (Sorry about the blurring - it was clear on my PC.)

Times_monkey.jpg

[PanBiker]

I knew you would be able to expand on my question Peter and thanks. I will have a look at the link. Now on the pin prick antibody test. Again much simpler and would that not show how many people had already had the virus if they were carrying the right antibodies? Is that what the Imperial College survey is trying to assess?

[PanBiker]

Lancashire is now on tier 3, Extremely High Covid status.