Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

[Stanley]

[Tizer]

Sue, it appears to be a broken link.
I've now seen the Telegraph stating `At least 20,000 students have had coronavirus since the start of term' so my `20,000 students now affected' may not be correct if some have recovered.

[Tripps]

I think this is worthwhile background reading . Covid etc.

If you want something else to worry about try this Pork International
Naive as always I thought AI stood for Artificial Insemination not Artificial intelligence.


And finally (hope not) what if in a couple of months time the USA has no government as Biden has won but Trump won't hand over, Europe is overrun by the second wave of Covid 19, and can't cope with that and Brexit, so China decides - all preparations having long been put in place including an 'exercise' dry run. it might be a good time to invade Taiwan.

Stay cheerful. . .

[Big Kev]

Screenshot_20201019-183122_Google.jpg

[Tripps]

Fair comment. . . .

Pay no attention to me. I've spent the afternoon looking for my ears which seem to have disappeared beneath the 'barnet', which is the only thing prospering in the current climate.

selfieoct20.jpeg

.

[Marilyn]

(scarey)
All set for Halloween then?

[Tripps]

Quite correct - though i have little choice but to look at it from time to time. It was worse before I trimmed the eyebrows.

Forgive this - it started modestly but just grewed and grewed.

I've just read the Great Barrington Declaration, (GBD) after readingToby Young's column in the Spectator.

It's surprisingly short, and is based upon what was the British Government initial policy that the old and the vulnerable should be shielded and the rest of the population should get on with life, and work and socialise as normal .

The virus is a lot more dangerous to over 70's and is hardly dangerous at all to children and young people. The idea is that herd immunity will be achieved and the virus will peter out in time, meanwhile the economy will not take too much of a hit and the nation will survive economically.

This sort of policy was started by the Government, but quickly abandoned after a study by Imperial College forecast that 250,000 deaths would quickly be the result. Despite the author being one Professor Ferguson who had previously been hopelessly wrong in his predictions, the Government lost their nerve and changed policy to a lockdown.

The weakness I'd say in the GBD is that subsequent herd immunity , though intuitive, is far from certain and since this is a totally new virus, only time will tell whether it will occur at all, and if so for how long.

The declaration has been immediately attacked by for instance The Guardian, and the ex Marxist professor Susan Michie whom the BBC seem recently to have had on speed dial. Young quoted good evidence that discussion of the Declaration has been restricted by the media and especially the BBC. Why would that be I wonder?

The Manchester Evening News has said tonight they cannot get any information on the number of admissions to Manchester hospitals, and their subsequent outcomes. The lack of information seemes to have beeen universal and coordinated. I wonder why that should be?

Much has been made of the occupancy of Intensive care beds, in Manchester, but I've seen figures which show that 85% plus is quite normal, even in pre-Covid times. It is said that more could quickly be provided if required, and transfers to other hospitals were available. Is someone trying to make the situation appear worse than it actually is? I wonder why that should be ?

Where and when will it all end. I just heard a caller to LBC say that the death rate is now at a manageable level and we should all 'grow up' and not be 'emotionally incontinent ' about the subject. of death. He implied that the deaths of people over the age of the average (84 ) was of little consequence, and we had better get used to it. The presenter couldn't get him off the air quick enough. I saw some numbers yesterday in which it was said that the average age at death 'with' Covid was now higher than the ordinary life expectation of the general population. So that's all right then?

I expect this thing to continue for a long time yet, and I think eventually ,after say another six months to a year, though I would not put it so starkly, he may be proved right. The big three month lockdown didn't stifle the virus, and I doubt a partial one, or even a short full one would work for more than a short time.

Here's a bit of Facebook type wisdom on the subject- Covid Riddle:
If Lockdown One worked, why do we need Lockdown Two
And if it didn't work, why are are doing it again when we know it doesn't work?

The number of the population who will die from other untreated illnesses will probably overtake the Covid deaths. Already I'd say there have been more student deaths from suicide and drug overdoses whilst in lockdown, than from Covid.

Wales has gone for a two week lockdown starting on Friday - 23 Oct 20. A brave decision since it will take a lot longer than that to measure the effect. The Irish have been more rigorous and started a six week lockdown. That should enable them to loosen up for Christmas with some visible results. to show for it.

We are currently going for regional lockdowns- subject to Mayor Andy Burnham's agreement . He demands full 'furlough' conditions for all - despite that scheme running out shortly, and being replaced by a less generous one. He says ' a person on minimum wage cannot thrive on two thirds pay' . Before this is over I think 'thriving' will be replaced by 'surviving'. Mr Burnham has made no mention of the cost of his proposals which of course will be demanded by all who are similarly affected. - currently Liverpool and Lancashire.

It's easy to stand on the steps of Central Library (I used to do my homework in there ), and make demands. It's another matter pay for them.

[Stanley]

Love the selfie David, it has gone into the archive.
As for Taiwan, No need for China to bother. At the rate the mainland economy is growing and recovering from Covid Taiwan will be applying to join!
As for 'grew and grew', tinged with pessimism perhaps but nowt wrong with that and all valid observations I'd say. That's not to say I endorse it but in a complicated situation like Covid someone has to voice the awkward questions. I'm convinced that if we were party to all the discussions in the corridors of power we'd be horrified!
Next question I have with Tier 3 is when do they start thinking about closing the border between us and Skipton?

[Wendyf]

As I live right on the border I do wonder if I can turn left at the end of the track....probably not, unless I'm going to Earby or Barlick when I have to make a quick foray through a Tier 1 area, but as long as i dont slow down or breathe it should be OK.

[Stanley]

It's not crystal clear is it.....

[Wendyf]

Actually I think it is quite clear, but it is still just advisory that people don't travel between areas in different tiers.

[Big Kev]

Actually I think it is quite clear, but it is still just advisory that people don't travel between areas in different tiers.

As long as it stays that way until the end of October. I don't want to cancel my trip to Sherwood Forest...

[plaques]

Where and when will it all end. I just heard a caller to LBC say that the death rate is now at a manageable level and we should all 'grow up' and not be 'emotionally incontinent ' about the subject. of death. He implied that the deaths of people over the age of the average (84 ) was of little consequence, and we had better get used to it. The presenter couldn't get him off the air quick enough. I saw some numbers yesterday in which it was said that the average age at death 'with' Covid was now higher than the ordinary life expectation of the general population. So that's all right then?

Spot the flaw in LBC logic. Culling the above average age group will bring the total average life expectancy down. Then with this new base line we can happily cull another tier. A race to the bottom is on the cards.

My recent replacement second hand car has a number plate that shows it was originally registered in Newcastle. This being so I could probably ride around the north east without being pulled over for having a strange number plate. Somehow I think the police have enough to deal with without fingering the collars of motorists who may not have taken too much notice of a 'recommendation'.

[Tizer]

I think this is worthwhile background reading . Covid etc.

Just a couple of comments to add. As far as I can tell the article doesn't mention dilution of the virus particles we breathe out. It makes quite a lot of the virus dispersing widely as if we might catch it at a distance but doesn't note that dispersion results in dilution. One virus particle won't give you a covid infection. A few won't do either. It needs and infectious dose. We don't know what it is for this virus because it's new but if a few particles could infect us we'd all be in hospital by now!

A more general comment. The author says `Most people who die from influenza, coronavirus, even rhinovirus, do so primarily from pneumonia (bacterial infection) or some other systemic bacterial infection.' He seems to define pneumonia as bacterial infection. Being a pedant I'll point out that pneumonia is defined as `swelling (inflammation) of the tissue in one or both lungs', whatever the cause. The inflammation is most often bacterial but can be viral or fungal infection and also `aspiration pneumonia' is caused by `breathing in vomit, a foreign object, such as a peanut, or a harmful substance, such as smoke or a chemical' (NHS definition'. So saying only that someone had `pneumonia' doesn't tell you what it was caused by.

[Sue]

Actually I think it is quite clear, but it is still just advisory that people don't travel between areas in different tiers.

I agree Wendy. I find all the restrictions clear, the confusion comes when you try to remember them all, but you don’t need to. You only need yours as they go with you unless you go into a higher tier.

[Tripps]

I'm ashamed to say it but for me, the 'highlight' of today's Covid press conference was noticing that Professor Van-Tam's height raising box has been painted black to make it a bit less obvious. - It worked too - had to look twice.

It's getting a bit like watching Alan Ladd films.

[Stanley]

Nice one David! I remember hearing a lady saying once that when filming a scene where she and Alan Ladd to walk down the street the film crew dug a trench for her.
I hear what you all say about the regs being clear. I suppose my problem is that I don't need to take them in because I have been locked down and shielding since March and so am observing even more severe restrictions 24X7.
My only point about 'letting old people die' is that as I understand it, to cut down on general infection rates we have to stop giving the virus opportunities to thrive and prosper. That being the case letting old people die doesn't help does it? Have I got this right?
I don't want anyone to die... Look after yourselves and keep up your personal precautions.

[plaques]

A couple of regional covid payments for comparison.

Liverpool City Region
It was the first area to be placed under Tier 3 rules and indoor gyms, dance studios, sports facilities, leisure centres, betting shops, adult gaming centres and casinos had to close. It received £14m to support Test and Trace and enforcement efforts when it was placed in Tier 3 on 14 October.

An additional £30m in business support was given to the region a few days later following negotiations, bringing the total to £44m.

Lancashire, Blackpool and Blackburn with Darwen
The area has been in Tier 3 since 19 October, with car boot sales, adult gaming centres, bingo halls, betting shops and soft play areas having to close.

A financial support package of £42m was secured for businesses, the care sector and schools.

[Tizer]

This was linked in an email newsletter today from Martin Lewis's MoneySavingExpert.com web site. It's his blog and this article was at the top. It might have moved down a bit if he has posted anything since I write this
`Working from home (even for part of the week) due to coronavirus? Claim £6/week tax back on extra costs' LINK

[Sue]

In general I think those that need to shield or protect themselves well do so, except those unfortunate people who are not in a financial position to do so. My sewing teachers only income was sewing lessons and alterations. She cannot do any, she has an immune deficiency and has been in total shielding since March. Her Consultant has advised against any change. So no income. However it is not enough income to be classed as a business. She is 62, gets no pension yet. I doubt she has much financial support at the moment. Her husband is also self employed making things from wood. He can probably sell online but has been unable to sell on the markets to protect his wife .

[Sue]

This was linked in an email newsletter today from Martin Lewis's MoneySavingExpert.com web site. It's his blog and this article was at the top. It might have moved down a bit if he has posted anything since I write this
`Working from home (even for part of the week) due to coronavirus? Claim £6/week tax back on extra costs' LINK

I asked my daughters about this. I must mention it again . Both daughters and husbands are and will work from home in the foreseeable future. They try and work during the day in different parts of the house, getting together at lunchtime.

[plaques]

Long covid-19 is now said to affect 1 in 10 of those who have contracted and recovered from the virus. One worrying feature is that postviral inflammation may affect the heart as well as the lungs. Long Covid

Cardiovascular effects
Valentina Puntmann, who coauthored a research paper in JAMA Cardiology examining the cardiovascular effects in unselected patients with covid-19,2 discussed one of the study’s findings: the relatively high frequency of postviral or inflammatory myocarditis in people who have had covid-19.

She said, “We were all focusing on the lungs and respiratory symptoms to begin with, but the virus attacks the same receptor that is in the heart too, not just the lungs. Many patients who have had heart failure in the past who have now been very unwell with covid symptoms have sustained arrhythmias, meaning their hearts were beating very fast whilst they were ill, and they then went on to develop heart failure.

“If you have pre-existing cardiac conditions, and cardiomyocytes express the ACE2 receptor that the covid virus likes, you are more likely to develop the cardiac symptoms. Taking ACE inhibitors can be used as a preventive measure.”

Puntmann said that the illness was “obviously a huge stress on the heart, particularly for those with pre-existing conditions, which can lead to hypoxia and ischaemia of the heart. The clinical course of covid-19 is also much worse in individuals with a troponin leak.”
...........
Troponin, or the troponin complex, is a complex of three regulatory proteins that are integral to muscle contraction

[Stanley]

I read all of these sensible posts and reflect that the one certainty I can see is that nobody knows enough about the virus or its after effects to be able to advise on any course of action with certainty. I also see opinions that the real damage and death toll is not from Covid but from 'normal' diseases that aren't being diagnosed or treated. Add to this the economic affects of both Covid and Brexit and it looks like a storm on the horizon.
Have you seen the latest figures for all deaths 'at home' since March?

[Stanley]

On a day when we are told that track and trace results have deteriorated further the BBC offers THIS summary.
I saw a figure yesterday that since March £12billion has been invested in Track and Trace, the vast majority going to the centralised schemes run by some very suspect outside sources like Serco and US equity firms. I can't help wondering what effect this money would have had if it had been invested in local resources like the existing council led health and social care services. An added benefit would have been that Dido Harding would not have been involved!
Is this simply a flight of fancy on my part?
I also heard an anonymous NHS source saying that all the talk about the re-activation of the Nightingale facilities is moonshine as the specialised staff needed to run them isn't there.
Please tell me I am totally wrong and being too pessimistic.

[Tizer]

Please tell me I am totally wrong and being too pessimistic.

I'd love to be able to tell you that you're being too pessimistic, Stanley, but I can't. At the beginning of the pandemic I was reluctant to criticise the government because this was a new virus and it behaved in a way we'd not seen before. It was difficult for any government to deal with except the ultra authoritarian ones who could literally slam the doors shut everywhere overnight. Now they've had plenty of time to get their act together but our government is a disgrace. Lack of leadership, lack of nous, fumbling and bungling all the way. The one bright spot on the horizon is the ordinary folk at the `coalface' keeping the country up and running through all this, whether they be shopkeepers, medics, bin men, scientists, office workers etc. Remember, be careful and you'll be safe.

This article today from the BBC's Health Correspondent is an excellent short analysis and summary of how covid-19 is different from the other viruses and manages to wreak such havoc. The more we know about it the better equipped we are to fight it...
`Covid: Why is coronavirus so deadly?' LINK