Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

[Marilyn]

I’ve got a pain in the pinnie now, from laughing...

[Big Kev]

just spotted the typo. I shall amend it...

I thought the typo might have been `schwab test' in which case we'd have thought you were aiming high!... Schwab test

[PanBiker]

I signed up for the NHS/MORI testing survey last week, the test kit arrived today and I have to swab my tonsils and nostrils on Wednesday morning. I have a courier booked to collect it. There's an online survey I have to complete just after taking the test and I'll get results a couple of days later.

I did one of NHS/MORI tests last year. Mine was very quick on the turn round for results.

[plaques]

South Africa explains why it has put the AstraZeneca vaccine on hold until more detail is available about its efficacy to the South Africa virus mutation. Link. Basically what is being said is that on the evidence available it has a very low level of protection for both low level and serious infections and with their country having 85% incidence of this mutation they have elected to use alternative vaccines that have a better efficacy. Asked if other countries should follow suit he said its really up to them and whether the incidence of the South African virus is large enough to be a real concern. A good interview with someone who obviously new what he was talking about. Move over Matt Hancock.

[Tripps]

Worldometers

I know it's not a simple matter, and allowing for the 'Tuesday' factor, and different counting methods, we do seem to have a disproportionate number of daily deaths in this affair.

We - at this moment have 1052 deaths which is about 20 % of the World's deaths today.

I can see no other nation which has anywhere near a thousand. Are we the only ones telling the truth, or are we doing things wrongly?

PS USA now increased to 1570 - the rest still applies.

[Whyperion]

I think Malawi have stuck with AZ for now, ( maybe they can negiotiate a discount ). There are other world sourced vaccines coming on from initial trials, I wonder how the russian and chinese ones will fare ( does the UK test these at least in a test tube situation if not field trials ).

WHO is reporting back
Via the BBC Website
< "A theory that the coronavirus leaked from a laboratory in the Chinese city of Wuhan has been discredited as "extremely unlikely" by an international team of investigators. Peter Ben Embarek, head of a World Health Organization-led mission to the city, said the idea that an incident at the Wuhan Institute of Virology was behind an outbreak would not be pursued further.
"The laboratory incident hypothesis is extremely unlikely to explain the introduction of the virus into the human population," he said during a news conference. "Therefore is not in the hypotheses that we will suggest for future studies."
The team has also announced that they had found evidence of the wider circulation of the coronavirus in December 2019 beyond a seafood market where it was reported to have begun. >

Additionally < Following the conclusion of a joint WHO-China mission, he said more work was needed to identify the source of the virus. >
Also Reported (The BBC appear to have changed page contents during the day) < Dr Embarek told a press conference the investigation had uncovered new information but had not dramatically changed the picture of the outbreak. >

To me the " New Information " has not been specifically declared - although the further lines of investigation appear to be the supply chain to the market, including the frozen one from other countries in east asia - itself interesting in a related report on Sars type coronaviruses in Bats in a Thai wildlife park - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-55998157

While the"Wuhan Institute of Virology" appears to have been ruled out by WHO, to me my understanding is that there is a second research facility in the area (is it technically part of the same organisation) and the reported paperwork on what they were working on did appear to be cut and paste in genetic code particulary spike proteins. I am still not convinced with the evidence given by Chinese authorities - maybe with the original cover up it generates a mind of suspicion.

[Whyperion]

Worldometers

I know it's not a simple matter, and allowing for the 'Tuesday' factor, and different counting methods, we do seem to have a disproportionate number of daily deaths in this affair.

We - at this moment have 1052 deaths which is about 20 % of the World's deaths today.

I can see no other nation which has anywhere near a thousand. Are we the only ones telling the truth, or are we doing things wrongly?

PS USA now increased to 1570 - the rest still applies.

I think the UK has a problem treating effectively persons presenting with virus symptoms - who may be being hospitalise, or treated, too late. I think though you need to match deaths - which are occurring over any time frame from three to 20 odd plus days from a covid positive test - to the incidence of infections , still were high in care homes and multigenerational homes. I doubt that every South and Central American and African country has the means to effectively count cases never mind deaths , and you could probably map deaths in western countries to population density and age profile. Despite the more transmissable variations being identified the present rate of first dose vaccination in groups at risk, and the lockdown measures in place do appear to be reducing the number of cases identified ( are the mass door to door tests included in those numbers reported or are they coming separately ?) and should lead to a reduction in deaths in about three weeks, but I find it difficult not to conclude given vaccine inefficiencies if a normal life as previous re-starts in say October, that there will be a continued background level of some 5000 cases, 1000 hospitalisations and 200 deaths per week as part of the virus within the UK. As to if any other countries will let UK residents (or visitors !) into their lands remains to be seen what attitude to risk they take.

[plaques]

.....if a normal life as previous re-starts in say October, that there will be a continued background level of some 5000 cases, 1000 hospitalisations and 200 deaths per week as part of the virus within the UK........

From Tripps 'Worldometers' Using their charts for the UK. the projection for hospital beds in June 2021 is 1,341, and deaths 242 (worst) and 51 (without universal masks). They are not making predictions beyond June so your figures could quite well be in the parish since it all seems to be a big guessing game.

[Marilyn]

It doesn’t bear thinking how many more deaths there would have been without your current lockdown. Looks like the numbers and trends are heading the right way.

[Stanley]

David, I hear the numbers and my mind works the same way of yours. I think there is little doubt that the pandemic has once more shown up some pretty big flaws in governance based on economics which is what we have in the UK. The difference between us is that I then think of something else to distract me because there are so many huge death tolls in the world caused by disease and famine. It's just an accident of fate that this particular cause is one we are forced to share.
Will our leaders see it like this and reflect on the recent cuts to overseas aid? Or will we find a solution to the virus, apply it and carry on as before. Your guess will be as good as mine but I shall not be holding my breath.

[Tizer]

I'm sure that our government made bad decisions and was slow to take action and that this has caused many more infections and deaths than if they'd been more effective. However many other countries have made similar mistakes and been slow to act. Our covid data often looks worse because other countries are less efficient at collecting information about deaths and infections and have different ways of filling in death certificates. A lot of deaths get put down to things as simple as `age' in order to cause least distress to families etc.
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I was talking to someone on the weekend who believes she had covid-19 in January because she had a bad cough, sore throat, felt awful etc. I explained to her, as I've pointed out on OG before, that covid-19 is new and I don't believe she had it in January, but we first recognised coronaviruses infecting humans back in the 1960s. A number of coronaviruses have been circulating in humans, even in the UK, probably for centuries, perhaps thousands of years. Epidemiologists will tell you that we have all had a coronavirus infection at least once in our lifetime, probably more often. I thought it was worth posting some links here...

`Common Human Coronaviruses' US CDC
`What's Causing My Cold?' Webmd.com

[Tripps]

Well this has removed the smug look from my face -pfizer efficacy

Down from a level on trial of 91% to a real life level of64%.

Confirms my long held view that "all plans collapse on first contact with the enemy"
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PS - the WHO seems to have endorsed the Astrazenica vaccine for all age groups, and I noted this -

"No data are available on the interchangeability of doses of this vaccine with other COVID-19 vaccines. It is currently recommended that the same product should be used for both doses. Recommendations may be updated as further information becomes available on interchangeability."

The Government had been 'kite flying' on this issue - largely I guess in case there was a shortage of one particular vaccine. This excerpt should stop this for now.

[plaques]

Well this has removed the smug look from my face -pfizer efficacy

Down from a level on trial of 91% to a real life level of64%.

Confirms my long held view that "all plans collapse on first contact with the enemy"

It all depends on who you are prepared to believe. The Sun or Dr Fauci.Fauci I did read somewhere that these percentages are calculated against a smallish trial set against using placebo and vaccinations in young people, injecting people with covid has ethical implications. Now here comes the % confusion.

Starting at day one after the vaccination the failure rate would be high. Similarly for day 2, 3, 4, 5, If all the failures and successes were calculated up to day 21, then the average success would be 54%. If the same calculations were done starting day 14 to 21 the average is now 90+%.

After 1 week there is very little cover but after 3 weeks 90%.

I'll stick with Dr Fauci.

[Tripps]

I won't 'rise to the bait' (again). You're absolutely right of course.

[Stanley]

Good, Ken is quite right David, or at least I agree with him. I listened to Anthony Fauci and it's obvious why Trump hated him, he's knowledgeable and can express himself clearly. All the test results that 'experts' throw at us are based on very small samples and often ones that don't reflect us oldies. I shall continue to feel confident in my vaccination until I get extremely good evidence to the contrary.

[Wendyf]

Col got a jab today, one word from the consultant and he jumped the queue.

[Gloria]

Good news Wendy.

[Big Kev]

Col got a jab today, one word from the consultant and he jumped the queue.

Took his rightful place in the queue

[Stanley]

Kev's right, good that the consultant swung it but it should never have been in any doubt. I hope he gets over the side effects easily. Make him rest!

[Tizer]

I'll second Stanley's comments! Great news Wendy.
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This is the latest news on the WHO visit to Wuhan, published in Nature journal 2 days ago...
`‘Major stones unturned’: COVID origin search must continue after WHO report, say scientists
Investigation team rules out idea that the coronavirus came from a laboratory leak, but offers two hypotheses popular in Chinese media.' Nature

[PanBiker]

Aye, onward and upward now Wendy just got to get him fed up and fit to take on the surgery.

[Wendyf]

He's been into Airedale for his post chemo CT scan this morning, a bit of a gruelling session I think.

[PanBiker]

Was it a contrasted scan Wendy or a straight through the polo mint?

[Wendyf]

Not sure of the difference Ian, but he had to have a cannula fitted for the dye stuff and to fill his stomach with fluid, plus something to expand his oesophagus! It all took a couple of hours.

[Stanley]

I know it's essential and as such welcomed but that doesn't alter the fact it's very close to torture. Makes me cringe to think of it. Give the old bugger my best please Wendy....