Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

[Stanley]

That's about it Ken. That's why I shall be doing what I've been doing for over a year now, as little contact with anyone as possible, cod liver oil every morning, bleach the sink and don't hug strange women. Vaccination just makes me feel better. It doesn't make me bullet proof!

[Tizer]

.....Now we have a message from our Government, that if you have a four day headache, then seek help. I am guessing there have been a small but significant number of cases of a particular brain blood clotting event........

[That was Sue quoting Tripps]
Just for clarification, yes there have been a few cases of a less common brain blood clotting event - but, putting it in context, no more cases than would have been expected if we had no pandemic. But the regulations are such that vaccination had to be stopped simply because the normal incidence is so low it triggers the decision easily. It needed someone to give the order to carry on vaccinating because the danger due to stopping would be (and was) much greater than the danger from blood clots. But no-one put their head above the parapet.

[Sue]

.....Now we have a message from our Government, that if you have a four day headache, then seek help. I am guessing there have been a small but significant number of cases of a particular brain blood clotting event........

[That was Sue quoting Tripps]
Just for clarification, yes there have been a few cases of a less common brain blood clotting event - but, putting it in context, no more cases than would have been expected if we had no pandemic. But the regulations are such that vaccination had to be stopped simply because the normal incidence is so low it triggers the decision easily. It needed someone to give the order to carry on vaccinating because the danger due to stopping would be (and was) much greater than the danger from blood clots. But no-one put their head above the parapet.

Yup, and as I said they were morally bound to give the advice given as they do with every drug and side effects reported. The % risk here is very small indeed. 0.0001% , if there is a link, which they suspect there isn’t . I had major back surgery with a 1 in a million chance I would end up in a wheel chair, and did not question it as the option was more certain ie continuous pain and immobility so the vaccine is less risky than my spinal operation. I have to admit I had pfizer, no choice just given it, but many friends and relatives had Astra zenica With no issues

[Stanley]

Mine was AZ Sue and so far I haven't fallen off my perch...

[plaques]

Life's a lottery full of short straws and musical chairs. Most of the OGuy readers will be in the musical chair category with chairs being removed at increasing rates. These vaccines are the equivalent of putting some chairs back so the music can continue longer, admittedly some of them are a bit on the wobbly side but they will do for now. Refusing the vaccines is like a sudden death gamble where you could leave the floor earlier than expected.

[Tripps]

We worry about the Brasil and South African variants -whilst elsewhere in the world, they are worried about the UK variant

[Marilyn]

P, we will all spend time on the wobbly chairs.
The difference is that some people know they are wobbly but still need to sit on them and will, because there are no sturdy ones.
Others see the chairs as perfect and robust...and don’t like those that dare mention wobbly chairs

[Sue]

Bob found an article last night about some German researchers that think they have found the trigger to the blood clots. The work has not been published, obviously far too soon, and needs to be validated. They have also identified a treatment for it. The speed medical scientists are working this year is incredibly . I am in awe.

[Tizer]

...The speed medical scientists are working this year is incredibly . I am in awe.

I agree, Sue. Like the nurses and doctors, many have been working extremely long hours and weekends and not seeing family.

A medical expert on the radio this morning had the best response I've heard on the issue of AZ vaccine and blood clots. He confirmed that it was a very bad decision by the EU when they interrupted the AZ vaccine roll out, thousands have died due to that decision, and concluded with: `If you want to get a blood clot, get covid'.

[Marilyn]

[Stanley]

I heard the same report Peter.
See THIS report in the Independent.
Dr Mike Tildesley, associate professor of infectious disease modelling at Warwick University, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “We are running a real risk if we do start to have lots of people going overseas in July, for instance, in August, because of the potential for bringing more of these new variants back into the country.”.
Sounds like common sense to me..... we don't want a third wave during the winter.

[plaques]

we don't want a third wave during the winter.

A third wave is inevitable. The best we can hope for is that the vaccine reduces its severity and that the normal winter influenza surge doesn't combine with it to make something really nasty. But lets not talk about that just yet. The main thing is to get the pubs open.

[Tizer]

Yesterday in The Times the front page and first few inner pages were all about the warnings that we wouldn't be going on holidays for a long time yet and how other countries are falling back into lockdown. Then followed pages reporting all the demands for ending lockdown, getting `back to business' and going on holidays. For example Tim Martin (he of Wetherspoons) wanting the pubs opened and the boss of EasyJet saying they're taking millions of bookings from the UK for flights to Turkey in summer. At the same time the paper reports how Turkey is seeing a rise in covid infections, not helped by President Erdogan having held mass rallies which health experts say have contributed to the rise...

For sun-starved and lockdown-weary Britons, the announcement by Turkey that it was ready to welcome tourists without vaccination passports, quarantine or a negative PCR test offered a literal ray of light. Bookings have soared and EasyJet has said it expects to bring one million UK tourists to Turkey this year. Inside Turkey, however, Covid-19 infection rates are rising rapidly again after the country began easing restrictions at the start of the month. Daily cases, which stood at 8,424 on March 1, had soared to 21,030 last night. Bars and restaurants, which have been allowed to reopen at half-capacity in most provinces, have been packed as the rules prove nearly unenforceable...

And on top of all that we see mass protests in London and other cities demanding an end to lockdown, with calls to `Give us back our freedom'. I don't usually like being rude about people but I've got to say now that I think we have some real idiots about!

[Marilyn]

Great!
Travel bans and border closures wouldn’t go amiss!

[Big Kev]

Yesterday in The Times the front page and first few inner pages were all about the warnings that we wouldn't be going on holidays for a long time yet and how other countries are falling back into lockdown. Then followed pages reporting all the demands for ending lockdown, getting `back to business' and going on holidays. For example Tim Martin (he of Wetherspoons) wanting the pubs opened and the boss of EasyJet saying they're taking millions of bookings from the UK for flights to Turkey in summer. At the same time the paper reports how Turkey is seeing a rise in covid infections, not helped by President Erdogan having held mass rallies which health experts say have contributed to the rise...

For sun-starved and lockdown-weary Britons, the announcement by Turkey that it was ready to welcome tourists without vaccination passports, quarantine or a negative PCR test offered a literal ray of light. Bookings have soared and EasyJet has said it expects to bring one million UK tourists to Turkey this year. Inside Turkey, however, Covid-19 infection rates are rising rapidly again after the country began easing restrictions at the start of the month. Daily cases, which stood at 8,424 on March 1, had soared to 21,030 last night. Bars and restaurants, which have been allowed to reopen at half-capacity in most provinces, have been packed as the rules prove nearly unenforceable...

And on top of all that we see mass protests in London and other cities demanding an end to lockdown, with calls to `Give us back our freedom'. I don't usually like being rude about people but I've got to say now that I think we have some real idiots about!

Let them all go to Turkey just don't let them come back until they've been in a 14 day isolation and have had a negative test...
I can't believe how selfish these idiots are.

[Stanley]

Couldn't agree more. I listened to the people saying that the public are 'desperate' to fly abroad (Including the BBC presenters joining in.) the Shadow Home Secretary gives us the earth shaking news that she hasn't booked a holiday abroad and the lady from Public Health England says unlocking too early would be dangerous as it could let variants in.
Then listened to reports of protests appealing for freedom. The only protest I sympathised with was the one against the new Police and Crime Bill. (But seeing the later reports of violence later I am definitely not in favour of that!)
Later, see THIS report about the consequences of ending lockdown too early in Florida. Massive problems at Miami Beach and a renewed closure.
Incidentally I am listening to an interview on World Service and the interviewer is feeding quotes to the interviewee by using leading questions. Very questionable behaviour.

[Tizer]

The covidiots should be listening to this lady who knows what she's talking about...
`Covid: Masks and social distancing 'could last years'' LINK
`People may need to wear face coverings and socially distance for several years until we return to normality, a leading epidemiologist has predicted. Mary Ramsay, the head of immunisation at Public Health England, said basic measures could be in place until other countries successfully roll out jabs. She also said a return of big spectator events required careful monitoring and clear instructions about staying safe..'.

Now here's the good news...
`Covid vaccine: US trial of AstraZeneca jab confirms safety' LINK
`Results from the long-awaited US trial of the Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid vaccine are out and confirm that the shot is both safe and highly effective. More than 32,000 volunteers took part, mostly in America, but also in Chile and Peru. The vaccine was 79% effective at stopping symptomatic Covid disease and 100% effective at preventing people from falling seriously ill. And there were no safety issues regarding blood clots....

`Data from this new trial - run by experts at Columbia University and the University of Rochester in collaboration with AstraZeneca - may also prove useful in reassuring people about how well the vaccine works to protect the elderly against Covid-19 illness. Several countries initially would not authorise the use of the vaccine in adults over 65, citing lack of evidence. Around a fifth of the volunteers in this trial were over 65 and the vaccine - given as two doses, four weeks apart - provided as much protection to them as to younger age groups. .'.

[Marilyn]

Did they say how long the vaccine is good for Tiz.? Is it going to be 12 months, 10 years, a lifetime?

[Tizer]

If you mean how long will it be appropriate for tackling a covid pandemic it will depend on how fast the virus mutates and how susceptible the new variants will be to the vaccine. No-one can predict that. If you mean how long will a vaccination done today continue to protect us, then that's not known either. We'll only find out by trial and error as time passes. Sorry, I know that isn't much help but everything is new to us - new virus, new types of vaccine, even masks and social distancing haven't been a policy here since the 1918 influenza epidemic.

[Tripps]

I try to look at the positive side of things. The vaccine isn't perfect, and in fact I think it's true to say we are still in the trial. It has only been licensed for emergency use - but where would we be now without it. As Tizer says there's a lot we don't know about this pandemic.

I agree the government should retain the emergency powers until October - doesn't mean they have to use them. Announcing a fixed date of June 21st as an end to it all was foolish.

We need a new word to describe a situation in which a diffferent outcome to the one intended is assumed. For example few people are using cash now - so we have some saying it's all a plan to remove cash from the system.

Didn't express that too well, but I know what I mean.

PS - perhaps I should have said motive rather than outcome - I'm struggling here. . . .

[Gloria]

Just had phone call, my 2nd jab is on Saturday.....yeaaa.

[Wendyf]

Good news Gloria.

[Tizer]

This episode of `How to vaccinate the World' is good - after all it's got both Tim Harford and David Spiegelhalter in it! LINK Towards the end I thought they might have tried to answer Maz's question or at least a part of it - how long will your vaccination protect you? One of the experts went as far as saying the present information suggests at least from 6 to 9 months. I suppose the 9 months figure is as far as we can go at the moment because there won't be any older data yet.

[Sue]

Did they say how long the vaccine is good for Tiz.? Is it going to be 12 months, 10 years, a lifetime?

There is ongoing monitoring of antibodies. Bob was randomly selected the other week to do an antibody test. It was a blood sample method. It was pleasing to see he had antibodies after one dose of Pfizer 8 weeks ago . Its the only way they can really tell how long it will last. it is also monitoring how many have antibodies that have mot had a vaccination. My cousin was selected last December, she had no antibodies and hadn’t then had the vaccination. Not surprising as she lives by herself and like us, abides by the rules and goes nowhere except for a walk, though she does go to the shops more than we do.

[Stanley]

I heard Mary Ramsay Peter and agreed with her. Just what we have been saying in these forums actually and David is right, it's still a trial and there is much we don't know which is why the result of the American test is so important. It couldn't be a better report and should give pause to the naysayers in Europe who are holding up use of AZ and in effect condemning some people to death.
Not a lot of point in your question Maz, we don't know now and will only find out as time goes on. Instead of speculation (Lord knows we have enough of that!) lets stick to the concrete bits.
Glad to hear you have got the date for second jab Gloria, I look forward to mine!