Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

[Sue]

I've always been cautious about the daily infection figures because they only record those people who have submitted test results. So I was glad to hear clarification this morning from Prof Ferguson although it's not good - the current estimate is that the real the infection figure is about 3x the reported rate. So we now have about 300,000 a day.

Still waiting for daily death tolls though. They are static at the moment, in fact down marginally. Infections by them selves mean nothing. Hospitalisations are up 2% in England but 26% in London

[Big Kev]

Hospitalisations are up 2% in England but 26% in London

They'll be announcing a lockdown in the north then

[Sue]

Yup reckon so. Rochdale's numbers went down yesterday

[Tripps]

It is not a matter to be taken lightly so I shall isolate despite having dodged the bullet so far.

I'll just pop out, and check the meaning of 'isolate' Entirely a matter for the person concerned of course.

*****************************************

PS - just realised the I shall isolate may mean - from now on - if so, apologies for the smartarse comment.

[Big Kev]

The press are in a frenzy, Christmas is doomed again

[Whyperion]

I've always been cautious about the daily infection figures because they only record those people who have submitted test results. So I was glad to hear clarification this morning from Prof Ferguson although it's not good - the current estimate is that the real the infection figure is about 3x the reported rate. So we now have about 300,000 a day.

Still waiting for daily death tolls though. They are static at the moment, in fact down marginally. Infections by them selves mean nothing. Hospitalisations are up 2% in England but 26% in London

London for various reasons did not have a large amount of persons (fully) vaccinated. While deaths are up a small amount - as are overall hospital numbers , it still wont be 14-21 days that the full medical impact of Omicron will hit, and the 870k+ daily boosters wont show their impact for another 21 days too. Looking at the more recent days of deaths , overall excess deaths seem up, ( If the BBC graph is about right for every covid death there is another excess death), this would seem to indicate that the NHS is not coping with its normal treatments and appointments as it both concentrates on dealing with Covid and the vaccine programme and itself is impacted by staff issues from both covid and possibly brexit.

[Stanley]

If I have understood correctly the pubs and clubs are free to spread infection until the end of the month but then shut down again. Again as I understand it, whilst not making it official, SAGE wants lockdown now.
I thought we listened to the experts? Noticeable that Sunak is keeping as far away from the public as possible and leaving bad news like no cash for the entertainment industry to be announced by 'Treasury Officials'

[Big Kev]

If I have understood correctly the pubs and clubs are free to spread infection until the end of the month but then shut down again.

Where has this been announced? Is it just pubs and clubs or is it hotels too?

[Big Kev]

Can't see any changes as yet, this is from 09:00 this morning

Health Secretary Sajid Javid is due on the Andrew Marr show shortly, but he's already been speaking to Sky News.

On any further measures to stop the spread of Covid, he said the situation remains under review.

Asked about reports that a two week circuit breaker is being planned, he said any move would need to be backed by data.

He also confirmed that if more measures are needed Parliament would be re-called.

[Stanley]

I am told that at Thornton Hill, 18 staff members and 8 clients have tested positive.

[Big Kev]

No change at 1pm, apart from the media interpretation of what Sajid Javid said (or didn't say). When asked directly if he could guarantee no further restrictions he said he couldn't guarantee anything. Sounds like a sensible answer to me.
Until there is more data he won't know, everything else just seems to be speculation to me.

[Sue]

Todays deaths down, hospitalisation up slightly , 49 % of population eligible have had booster. First and second vaccinations going up. Have the antivaccers given in

1BDB86CA-399D-4DD7-9F17-DB342D4B9872.png

I think high infection rates make more news than stable death rates . I am prepared to be proved wrong but we are 4 weeks in now ( I think)

Bob and i were negative today, Erin is not having a good day. We are watching carefully as she has a lung issue related to an infection when she was a baby.

[Big Kev]

Walk in boosters and second jabs, for those eligible, at Colne Health Centre all this week up until 1pm. They were trying to drum up business on Facebook today as they had a poor turnout.

[Big Kev]

Todays deaths down, hospitalisation up slightly , 49 % of population eligible have had booster. First and second vaccinations going up. Have the antivaccers given in 1BDB86CA-399D-4DD7-9F17-DB342D4B9872.png
I think high infection rates make more news than stable death rates . I am prepared to be proved wrong but we are 4 weeks in now ( I think)

I got this from the ONS website
Hospital admission rates continued to be highest among older age groups in the week ending 12 December 2021, but were much lower than the mid-January 2021 peak. Admissions were five times lower among those aged 55 to 64 years and around nine times lower among those aged 85 years and over.
The admission rate among those aged 5 to 14 years remains higher than the mid-January peak, at 129% of the rate seen in the week ending 17 January 2021. Despite this, the hospital admission rate in this age group was the lowest.
The age differences between current rates and those seen in mid-January likely reflect the age prioritisation of the vaccination programme in England.
Last updated: 17/12/2021
The 5-14 age group are all (mostly) off school now so, potentially, the infection rate in that age group should drop which should, in turn, reduce the hospital admissions.
I believe the NHS situation is more to do with a lack of resource, not only with hospital staff availability but the beds taken up by those who can't be discharged as there's no care package available for them at home.
As I've said, I'm no expert and this is just my opinion.

[Tripps]

Well - doubling every one and a half days didn't last long did it? New cases down for the each of the last two days, and talk of two million cases and thousands of new deaths looks a bit toppy. I doubt the numbers for omicron cases too. have they the analysis capacity to differentiate? (I think Tizer mentioned that, but can't find it)

This from The Guardian only yesterday.. Yes I just went back to check!

UK scientists: bring in curbs now or face up to 2 million daily Covid infections as Omicron spreads
Deaths could hit 6,000 a day and delaying restrictions until New Year will cut effectiveness, say Sage experts

Does anyone in (or out of) the Government have a clue what's actually going on, and what they are actually trying to achieve here? Has Sage ever got any prediction right? I'm mystified now. I note K's ref to the Spanish Flu. Not the same illness I know, but when this all started, I looked at how that ended, and found lots of cases in October - and zero in November. It just went!

I amuse myself by imagining that they know something similar will happen here, and they can 'save Christmas' then claim the credit and be heroes.

No - impossible they're not that clever.

Deus ex machina. . .

[Big Kev]

Well I doubt the numbers for omicron cases too. have they the analysis capacity to differentiate? (I think Tizer mentioned that, but can't find it)

From the BBC 6 days ago

Swabs from polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests, which are sent to labs for analysis, can show if the variant causing the infection looks like Omicron, Delta or something else.
Between a third and a half of UK labs - but not all - have the required technology to detect suspected Omicron cases. That means some parts of the country may identify more Omicron cases more quickly.
Confirming that a suspected case is Omicron requires a full genetic analysis, which takes between four and five days

[plaques]

A 20 minute video explaining the 'mechanics' of the Omicron virus against the Delta. All in simple layman's terms which look logical and seem to tie in with what's happening in real life numbers.

Omicron.

[Tripps]

I've watched several of this chap's videos. It seems pretty uncontroversial, if a bit repetitive. They are certainly learning as they go along.

I wouldn't say that "ties in with recent numbers" though. Rather than doubling in less than two days as predicted by SAGE, they have decreased. It's far too early to show a trend though - and the weekend will distort the figures. If the omnicron variant of the virus is as 'catching' as he says - spreading readily from the bronchial tubes via the air to others we will see huge increases in cases / infections in the coming days - not least among the snooker audience tonight.

I shall look at the figures next week with interest. Looks like the old theories about spreading via 'miasma' weren't too far away from the truth.

[Stanley]

I watched some of the snooker last night and very few of the audience were masked.
Interesting that you mention the miasma theory David. That was the reason all the Board Schools built in the late 19th century had such good ventilation. All been removed now. Perhaps they'll start putting them back.



Gisburn Road school in 1979 when the ventilator was still in place.

[Sue]

From the Covid 19 app

41A61199-EE4B-4C2C-8947-5ABA82D197BA.png

[Sue]

Looks like Claire and Adam are positive this morning. So much for Christmas in the Rooke household . They may be better by then but will still be in isolation

[Stanley]

The bright side is that they will get the immunity. As long as they don't have severe episodes it could be a good thing. I wish them all the best.
I am not going anywhere near the family this Xmas except for a visit by Susan next Friday. Susan has been my only close contact for most of the pandemic so far.....

[Big Kev]

From the Covid 19 app 41A61199-EE4B-4C2C-8947-5ABA82D197BA.png

A positive read, sounds promising.

[Sue]

From the Covid 19 app 41A61199-EE4B-4C2C-8947-5ABA82D197BA.png

A positive read, sounds promising.

Trouble is Kev the media are pushing fir a lockdown. I had a letter from a university friend on Friday, an immunologist and virologist who thinks lockdowns simply delay things, and we have reached a stage now when we need to get on with it. Both his children areGPs and they think the same and that the main problem is not the illness but the lack of health staff. Brexit comes to mind


My test was negative this morning

[Big Kev]

Both his children areGPs and they think the same and that the main problem is not the illness but the lack of health staff.

The number currently in hospital, compared to a year ago, pretty much confirms that. 40,000 in hospital last year with the country locked down and currently around 7,000 now. Have we lost over three quarters of the capacity?