POLITICS CORNER

[Stanley]

Politics moved fast yesterday. While everyone was trying to make out truth in the smoke and mirrors of a typical budget speech the first signs of an end to the NHS pay disputes was allowed to emerge and that Spiv Sunak grabbed a sound bite praising the wonderful health workers while he and his ministers denied it could have been settled sooner saving pain and heartache and according to the doctors, some deaths. Let's not forget he wouldn't let his ministers even talk to the workers, let alone negotiate.
Debate over the budget isn't over yet, the child care fiasco where every job enabled will cost £70,000 and the pension tweaks for high earners that are going to surface again.
My attention is focussed elsewhere. Therese Coffey at Environment has studiously ignored everything Minette Batters of the NFU has said to her about the farmers who didn't plant crops because the supermarkets wouldn't guarantee them the cost of production. She (Coffey) thinks that the shortfalls in imports are a one off, she hasn't realised yet that more and more shortages are going to arise as climate and demands change. Industry experts are forecasting a shortage of onions and potatoes later this year and cauliflowers and Broccoli have already been affected. The penny hasn't dropped yet that the national food plan doesn't contain any measures for ensuring that UK farmers are guaranteed production costs and so encouraged to plant. I fear we are in for some big shocks in food prices. You ain't seen nothing yet!

[plaques]

The nurses have been made an offer which I believe was that one of the prior conditions to the talks was that it MUST be referred to the members.
The details are to say the least 'convoluted' and need quite a bit of study to see what they mean. I only hope that the union leaders will cut through this Gordian Knot and explain in detail what it means.

So far not impressed.

[plaques]

A second thought on the nurses 5% offer for Apr 23 to Apr 24 is set against optimistic estimates that the rate of inflation will fall from the current 10% (rounded) to 3% (rounded) This gives an average increase in prices over the period of 6.5% meaning that the cost of living will have risen by 6.5% while the may have accepted a pay rise of 5%. Who in their right mind would vote for another pay cut I don't know.
More smoke and mirrors.

The budget is very strong on promises that are going to take place in two years time events that will take place outside the outcome of the next general election. Jam tomorrow is the order of the day with Jeremy Hunt giving an interview where he said " in 20 years time Brexit should be showing its advantages.

Hands up all those who expect to be here in 20 years time.

[Stanley]

I share your doubts Ken. As far as Sunak and hunt are concerned the main consideration was expense and they are still trying to get a cheap deal with the strikers. Not a word in the political news this morning about the disputes. I thought all along that any movement in pay offers depended on inflation showing signs of falling so that could be used in negotiations.
Hunt and his comment about Brexit being done in twenty years. I think it's obvious that even the most rabid Brexiteers have recognised that Brexit was a massive miscalculation and that we are not siling on into a glorious future. Their problem is that they can't admit it or rectify it as that would be the biggest U-turn in history and is impossible. All they can do is cling on to power (if possible) and wait for something to turn up. Meanwhile, ordinary people like us pay the price.
I note that another Tory initiative seems to have missed the mark. I couldn't understand why the House was debating a measure connected with bringing hunting trophies into the UK. See THIS BBC report on the Bill but then note this... "Critics of the plans have argued that profits from hunting are used to pay for conservation projects in African countries and can ultimately help to protect endangered species. Sir Bill Wiggin, the Tory MP for North Herefordshire, told the Commons there were concerns that removing the revenue supplied by trophy hunters could "open the floodgate to poachers, who will cause far more cruelty and pain to the animals and will pose a far greater threat to endangered species"."
(However, note that Sir Bill's sole supporter in the House was the egregious Sir Christopher Chope.
This leaves me wondering who is right. All I am certain of is that there are more pressing matters needing attending to!

[plaques]

The Jeremy Hunt budget was based on the OBR forecast which just happened to be the most optimistic of all the forecasts certainly better than the BofE. Having said this the OBR forecast that living standards would be taking a big hit and that the tax burden would be the highest for 72 years. But looking on the bright side the duty on real ale has dropped by 11p.

[Stanley]

It seems to me that the budget was a triumph of the spin doctor's art. Every tiny advantage that could be dragged out of the opinions and forecasts was recruited to reinforce the jam tomorrow message. The only problem I see is that no amount of optimism is going to be able to paper over the fractures we are going to see in the economy this year.
See THIS example of how bad policies and under investment in facilities can catch up with you in the end.
"Private firms are making increased profits as the government pays millions of pounds a day to put up asylum seekers in the UK, the BBC has learned. BBC News has been told 395 hotels are being used to house asylum seekers, as arrivals to the UK rose last year. At the same time, documents show one booking agency, which finds hotels for the Home Office, trebled its pre-tax profits from £2.1m to £6.3m. The Home Office says the asylum system is under "incredible strain". The government has never publicly confirmed the number of hotels involved, but a government source told BBC News it is now using 395 to accommodate more than 51,000 asylum seekers, at a cost of more than £6m a day."
That's the problem, the £6million a day. Bad policies and under investment over the years have led to this.
Look at the provision of locum doctors and nurses in the NHS for similar eye-watering daily expenditures, again, caused by under investment and neglect of training for years.
If you look you can find many more examples, and then we hear 'experts' expressing their puzzlement as to why productivity has fallen.
In other words cuts and austerity are good short term fixes for shortfalls in the economy but eventually they take their toll and we have to face the consequences. That's why the doctors pay claim of 45% and the nurses of 19% are not fairy tales, they can be justified and yet the government says they are 'unaffordable'. What is 'unaffordable' is to decline responsibility for these key sectors until in the end the buck stops with us and there is no way to escape. This is what is happening bow and nothing Sunak or Hunt can say or do is going to help mend things. What is certain is that to do what they are doing, pretend that all is well and we are 'on track' still to a golden future is absolutely the worst policy. That's how we got here in the first place.
They are hoping against hope for a miracle before the next election. It isn't going to happen. Does this mean that Labour is a shoo-in and all will be well? There are no signs of this yet.......

[plaques]

For years the economists have been saying that the UK has been relying on cheap labour rather that invest in new high tech machinery. The answer to this was Brexit where the cheap labour programme could continue and foreign countries would invest with new machinery make fantastic profits and sell their stuff on global markets and the EU. To make life easier the UK would lower standards and do away with all the embedded laws. Then the crunch came, the foreign firms said the UK is far too risky a place to invest in and coming out of the Common Market makes it too difficult to trade. Meanwhile Sunak and Hunt will continue to search the highlands for the mythical unicorn and hope that trivia of coronations, rubber boats and wardrobe malfunctions of minor TV celebrities will occupy peoples minds as they make their way to the food banks.

[Stanley]

Unfortunately all too true Ken....

[Stanley]

I looked at the political reports as usual but there is nothing there about English parliamentary matters except trivia about Johnson and his imminent appearance before the standards committee.
However, see THIS news from NI that the DUP has come to a decision about the Windsor 'Framework'.
"The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) will vote against the government's Windsor Framework Brexit plans in Parliament this week. Its leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson said he would continue to work with the government on "outstanding issues". But Downing Street has said there are no plans for substantial change to the deal. MPs will be given a chance to vote on the so-called "Stormont Brake" aspect of the Windsor Framework on Wednesday. Sir Jeffrey said the party had made the decision to vote against it during a meeting on Monday.
The framework builds on the Northern Ireland Protocol, which led to disagreements between the UK and European Union (EU) over trade rules. The Stormont Brake mechanism aims to give the Northern Ireland assembly a greater say on how EU laws apply to NI. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said it was proof that the UK has "taken back control" in the agreement he struck with the EU last month. His spokesperson said it was "the best deal for the people and businesses of Northern Ireland" and that the PM remained "confident it will be backed by the house" ."
I forecast this refusal to fall into line because as long as the DUP is acting as a block against something they are important and can claim to be working. I presume that means they get their pay and expenses....
Sunak my get a favourable vote at Westminster but this will do nothing to reinstate work at Stormont.
So situation normal in NI, all screwed up!

[plaques]

In my eyes Suella Braverman is becoming more evil by the day. Protecting the UK by swopping fit and healthy asylum refugees for an equal number of unknown origin and unknown background of Rwanda asylum refugees doesn't have any logic behind it. These are not Rwanda nationals but an influx of people who for one reason or another they want rid of. Talk about a Pig in a Poke. All this will cost hundreds of thousands £s more than dealing with our refugee problem as it should be dealt with. The question then arises 'what do you do with these Rwanda refugees'? Put them in hotels or specially build facilities to be looked after until they die, If they are genuinely trying to escape persecution by fleeing to Rwanda then its Rwanda's responsibility to look after them as it is ours to look after those entering the UK. People are not counters on some convoluted Snakes and Ladder game to be bargained away just to score points.

All this is cloak and dagger stuff, no numbers, no costs. no plan, just rhetoric to whip up the racist buffoons into voting for them.

[Stanley]

"
All this is cloak and dagger stuff, no numbers, no costs. no plan, just rhetoric to whip up the racist buffoons into voting for them."
I have to agree Ken. All we are seeing in Westminster is smoke and mirrors. The only genuine governance is coming from the House of Lords and the committees that are reporting.
Look at the report on the failings of the Metropolitan police. Utterly devastating, undoubtedly accurate and demanding immediate and draconian action. What are we getting? Bleeding obvious platitudes from Sunak and Braverman and a Commissioner of police saying he doesn't recognise the use of the word 'institutionalised'. Will someone please tell him that it isn't his job to criticise the wording of the report but to come up with workable strategies to rectify the faults.
Look at this mornings political headlines. The main item is Johnson's appearance before the privileges committee. He has publicised his defence, that he misled the House but it was 'inadvertent'. That isn't a defence any more than it would be if used by a motorist accused of speeding or driving dangerously. He says that it's obvious they didn't realise they were acting against the regulations because the images showing them doing it were made by the official photographers. Alternatively this happened because nobody was alert enough to realise that Number Ten was acting like a separate enclave of the state when this was obviously wrong. It was obvious to us, why didn't the same doubts cross their minds?
One of the accusations levelled against the Metropolitan Police is that they protected 'their own' in internal enquiries. We may be about to see evidence that Parliament acts in exactly the same manner. Don't hold your breath!

[plaques]

CPI inflation at 10.4%.
A reminder of where it should be on the official OBR forecast. ie: about 7%. at Ist quarter. from the chart. But 9.8% for February on some forecasts.

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Budget 1.jpg

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Jeremy Hunts response " Its not unusual to have adverse results"

Well that's all right then.

[Big Kev]

With regard to BJ, this sums it up I think

Screenshot_20230322-134948_Facebook.jpg

[Tizer]

Just seen on BBC Live: `MPs have voted in favour of the Windsor Framework, the Speaker has announced. '
How many MPs voted for the Windsor Framework? The results numbers are as follows:
Ayes: 515
Noes: 29
Majority: 486

[Tripps]

I think that Cincinnatus may be ploughing for a long time yet. He earned £5 million at it last year so not too painful.

Just heard that the Comittee verdict may not be announced for a couple of months. Oh dear. . .

[Stanley]

Peter.... and unless I am mistaken it was our Mr Stephenson that was the teller announcing the count.
David, I watched some of the Buffoon's evidence and it was late on in the proceedings when he was losing his rag at some of the questions. He was thumping the table and saying that anyone who said that what was happening was partying was wrong. My response to that is that if all the tables in the room are covered with bottles and everyone has a glass in their hands it looks like a party to me.
Yesterday afternoon was a good time for slipping news items out under the radar. See THIS BBC account of the statement of Sunak's tax affairs that was released by Number Ten yesterday afternoon.
Mr Sunak is thought to be one of the richest MPs in Parliament and his personal wealth is something opposition parties have often used as a political attack line. The PM worked in finance before entering politics and he and his family are thought to own several properties, including a Grade II-listed manor house in his North Yorkshire constituency. In the last financial year alone, 2021-2022, the prime minister earned more than £1.9m in income and capital gains, according to the records. The records show the total UK tax he paid was:
£227,350 on total earnings of £1,018,389 in 2019/20
£393,217 on total earnings of £1,777,581 in 2020/21
£432,493 on total earnings of £1,970,992 in 2021/22"
I forecast that this affair will be allowed to drag on until everyone is fed up and then the buffoon will be given a slap on the wrist and told to be a good boy.

[Stanley]

THIS BBC report on the number of families using food banks is filed under 'cost of living' but is firmly in the camp of political matters as the cost of food continues to rise.
About 3% of families in the UK - at least 2.1 million people - used a food bank in the year to March 2022, according to official figures. That rose to about one in nine (11%) for families receiving state income-related benefits.
The level of food inflation itself is also a political matter. We have the highest inflation levels of any of the G7 countries and further, it is becoming clear that many of the shortages and subsequent price rises are due to domestic political policies and the way the food chain is managing itself. The supermarkets are refusing to pay UK producers the economic cost of production but sourcing from cheaper markets abroad. They have done this for years but now the overseas markets are feeling the same pressures and we find that we haven't enough to supply our markets. This happened first with eggs but is now happening with field vegetables easily produced in this country as long as the crops are sown earlier in the year. That is where the trouble is, with no guaranteed price for the crops the farmers have either simply not sown crops or looked for a more profitable use of the land, like planting trees to get Carbon Credits.
When Therese Coffey of DEFRA was questioned on these matter by Minette Batters the leader of the NFU she had no response. Even the 'National Food Plan' has no mention of growing food. Any grants to farmers will be for the public good of a nice tidy countryside not fields full of food.
We learned these lessons in WW2 but have forgotten. We import over 60% of our food. We should be growing 60% instead.

[plaques]

The level of food inflation itself is also a political matter. We have the highest inflation levels of any of the G7 countries and further, it is becoming clear that many of the shortages and subsequent price rises are due to domestic political policies and the way the food chain is managing itself. The supermarkets are refusing to pay UK producers the economic cost of production but sourcing from cheaper markets abroad.

What happened to the good old supply and demand argument. When the supply drops the prices go up. Its what they call Capitalism. Before Brexit the UK was no different to any other EU country no problems with the supply chain. No extra paperwork. Now in times of shortage its easier to supply EU countries than mess about with the UK. And when suppliers detect the UK has a shortage prices go up. QED. UK farmers will never be able to supply all UK's food but it could set a bench mark for what importers could charge.

[Stanley]

"What happened to the good old supply and demand argument."
A good question Ken. In this case it is because the supermarkets are so big they have a monopoly position in the market and if they refuse to buy but seek a supply from elsewhere the UK producer is stuffed. What the economists call 'an imperfect market'. Supermarkets adopt this position where they are a monopoly buyer (say in milk or eggs) to keep prices down. They say this is for the benefit of their customers but in fact it is to help themselves in the constant price war pursuing volume sales better than their competitors.
Where it goes wrong is if the alternative source (Like European eggs or Moroccan peppers) fails because of internal domestic shortages it means the supermarkets have no stock because they have no alternative source. That's why the supermarkets have no eggs and I note yesterday that they are blaming Avian Flu in the Co-op for the empty shelves. This is a lie, it's because they refused to pay their suppliers the economic cost of egg production so they stopped producing them. Now the continental producers are hit by the Avian Flu there is no surplus of eggs for sale cheaper to the UK.
But I suspect you knew all that didn't you......
Now I have a question..... Does THIS mean that the problems with trade with Ireland, and hence Brexit itself, are solved?
I have a little story for you. I am re-reading Racundra's First Cruise by Arthur Ransome. It is the story of a cruise in his boat Racundra in the Baltic in the late 1920s. Time and time again he recounts that the first question he is asked by the inhabitants of remote islands is "How is it with Ireland?" Reading this reminded me that for almost 500 years Ireland has been a thorn in the side of the rest of the UK. Can we now expect this to end? Unfortunately not, the DUP are still refusing power sharing and as far as I can see there is no end in sight to the Irish 'problem'.
See THIS BBC report of an uncomfortable visit to London by the Israeli PM Netanyahu yesterday. I saw a certain symmetry between Netanyahu's right wing confrontation with the Knesset and the judiciary in Israel and stances adopted by the Tories towards the Supreme Court and changes in legislation on things like street protest in the UK. This is why I have always had a problem with the confusion between anti-Semitism and anti-Zionism. I know exactly where I stand on both of these matters. This visit does not make things any easier for me.

[plaques]

Well I finally did it.
Listened to the whole 3 and half hours of the Partygate enquiry by the Commons select Committee. The Committee opened by saying that their evidence was on a one to one basis under oath. Sue Gray's report and the MET's findings were not referenced and not included in any evidence. Boris Johnson's defence against ALL the gatherings raised by the Committee was " I believed that all rules and guidelines were followed". When shown 'official' photos of one particular gathering he said that what he saw was a farewell departure collection where ' I believed that all rules and guidelines were followed". On and on it went. Johnson was able to concoct the most convoluted detailed answers stretching his replies to people and events outside the range of the questions but always coming back to "I believed that all rules and guidelines were followed".

My overall impression was a very cleaver person in full command of every minute detail of his answers relying on "I'm an idiot" where "I believed that all rules and guidelines were followed".

We shall have to wait until the Committee has completed their deliberations to see if the 'idiots' defence has any meaning.

[Stanley]

You have more patience than me Ken, I couldn't stand three and a half hours of his specious ramblings.....
See THIS BBC report for more evidence that Sunak is looking for anything that can give the impression his government is actually doing something other than promote Tory Party plans and avoid annihilation at the elections.
Offenders who engage in anti-social behaviour will have to do immediate community work in hi-vis jackets or jumpsuits under new government plans. It aims to have people repair damage they cause within 48 hours of being given an order, through tasks such as cleaning graffiti. The pilot, covering 10 areas, will show the public such acts are "quickly and visibly" punished, Downing Street said. Labour called the pilot "embarrassing" and the government "out of ideas". The pilot forms part of a crackdown on anti-social behaviour, which Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will announce on Monday. Mr Sunak hopes the measures will stamp out the scourge of anti-social behaviour "once and for all".
Note that last sentence, this man really does live in cloud cuckoo land.
Looking back as far as Cameron's promise to get the annual number of asylum seekers down to less than ten thousand, can anyone show me a Tory policy that has worked and resulted in a better life for the population?
It seems to me that everything from benefit payments to life expectancy is deteriorating, or am I being too harsh......

[plaques]

You have more patience than me Ken, I couldn't stand three and a half hours of his specious ramblings.....

There's no denying it was tough going. Partly to check if the snippets that are shown on YouTube etc: were representative of the facts and to see whether Nadine Dorries MP claim of kangaroo court who's sole purpose was to find him guilty had any substance. The YouTube extracts were nominally representative but Nadine Dorries is way off where I thought the Committee were far too easy on Johnson and could have let it develop into a Caine Mutiny 'strawberry' scene with Johnson going into full meltdown.

Offenders who engage in anti-social behaviour will have to do immediate community work in hi-vis jackets or jumpsuits under new government plans. It aims to have people repair damage they cause within 48 hours of being given an order,

A friend of mine used to 'oversee' offenders who had been detailed to work on countryside projects. The first thing they would do is wreck the equipment. Accidently kick any fuel cans over, drive chainsaw blades into the soil and create more work than they had done.
The question is would Sunak employ them to repaint No10's door?

[PanBiker]

The problem in Barlick and lots of other areas I suppose is that there is no one to catch the miscreants. Even if they are caught on CCTV nothing seems to happen. Sounds like a "we are are doing something" sound bite to be.

[Stanley]

Ian, I have no doubt that the 'initiative' is to give the impression of doing something. The 'Windsor Framework' is crumbling before the ink is dry on the paper. Netanyahu's visit was a mini disaster and the stack of Tory politicians under investigation or expecting sanction is mounting daily.
See THIS BBC account of the latest bit of sleaze to surface.
Matt Hancock and Kwasi Kwarteng agreed to work for a fake South Korean company for £10,000 a day, footage from a campaign group appears to show. In a sting operation set up by Led By Donkeys, the ex-health secretary and ex-chancellor discussed rates to advise the sham firm, the Observer reported. MPs are allowed to have second jobs, and there is no suggestion of parliamentary rule-breaking. Mr Hancock's spokesperson said he had acted properly and within the rules. Mr Kwarteng has been contacted for comment. Led By Donkeys began as an anti-Brexit group and has regularly criticised government policy. The seven-and-a-half minute video was produced with input from journalist Antony Barnett, who has worked for the Observer newspaper and Channel 4. The group claims to have contacted 20 MPs, primarily Conservatives, and asked if they would consider sitting on the advisory board of a fictional consultancy firm from April, with duties to include attending six board meetings a year and providing political insight. Four of the five MPs who agreed to a meeting with the fake company are Tories.
As they say, none of this breaks any rules but it reinforces the impression that many leading politicians are constantly on the look out for opportunities to make extra cash by whatever means possible. Sunak does not need this at the moment.
THIS reinforces the measures announced yesterday to beef up measures against anti social behaviour. I have no objection to banning the ownership of Nitrous Oxide but will they please stop calling it 'laughing gas'. This tends to trivialise the offence.

[Tizer]

I have no objection to banning the ownership of Nitrous Oxide but will they please stop calling it 'laughing gas'. This tends to trivialise the offence.

As a break from politics have a look at this - feel free to read as much as you wish!...
`Humphry Davy, nitrous oxide, the Pneumatic Institution, and the Royal Institution' LINK