POLITICS CORNER

[Stanley]

I heard that report David and this morning found THIS in BBC politics.
Former No 10 adviser Dominic Cummings says he met Rishi Sunak twice in the past year to discuss political strategy and how to defeat Labour. Writing on his blog, Boris Johnson's right-hand man turned arch-critic said the current prime minister had asked him to "secretly" work on strategy. But he said his conditions for doing a deal had not been met. Downing Street said there had been a broad discussion of politics and campaigning but no job was offered. Mr Cummings' relationship with former prime minister Mr Johnson ended in acrimony, but according to a Sunday Times report he met the current incumbent last December and then again in July. The former Vote Leave strategist said Mr Sunak had wanted him to work on politics and communications behind the scenes ahead of the general election, with a promise of a return to No 10 if the Conservatives - who are lagging behind Labour in the polls - won.
All I can say is that it looks as though Sunak is scraping the barrel. He should be looking for fresh initiatives and change not the same old failed formulas over and over again. He looks as inept as Starmer. Don't make any snap judgements based on polls, nothing is certain!
Have a look at THIS report that the Queen of Denmark has announced she is stepping down and leaving the throne to her son. How sensible! I've always admired the way Denmark do royalty.....

[Stanley]

The election campaign is under way.... See THIS claim by Sunak that the asylum backlog has been cleared.
The Home Office says it has cleared its asylum backlog, but critics accuse the government of manipulating the figures. Tens of thousands of migrants have been staying in government requisitioned hotels while they await an initial decision on their refugee status claim. Just over a year ago, PM Rishi Sunak pledged to process 92,000 "legacy" applications by the end of 2023. Labour accuse the government of making false claims about meeting the target. According to a government press release, "increased efficiency" has meant more than 112,000 asylum cases were processed by officials last year, exceeding the PM's commitment. It says in one four-week period from 20 November to 17 December 2023, there were 20,481 initial asylum decisions made - more than the number of asylum decisions made in the entirety of 2021. The prime minister said the department's efforts are "saving the taxpayer millions of pounds in expensive hotel costs, reducing strain on public services and ensuring the most vulnerable receive the right support". But critics - including some Tory MPs - dispute these claims and suggest that Downing Street is massaging the statistics.
I fear we may see more 'massaging of statistics' in the coming months as a government desperate to prove that they are not the worst in living memory try to improve their chances.

[Tripps]

Interesting morning on LBC. Nick Ferrari interviewed Home Secretary Jame Cleverly and failed to land a blow. He was unusually badly prepared, didn't query anything, and didn't mention Rwanda or the Bibby Stockholm. He went easy on the drink spiking blunder, and
his description of Mrs Cleverly was quite inappropriate. Why does it matter that she is good looking? I suspect they have met socially and he knows them both.

JC said boat crossings were down by a third, and it wasn't due to the weather, as there had been a comparable number of 'sailing days' in 2023 as there were in 2022, (102 plays 106) and the figures for the final quarter were impressive. The skipper of a local fishing boat spoke convincingly later, and he said his vessel was designed for up to force eight, and he had only been fishing for one day since November.

Then on the subject of knife crime and the latest murder in London, a well spoken educated sounding chap called Asif phoned saying that he was thinking about, and three of his cousins had already moved, from inner city areas to more 'white areas' for the protection of their children. He described this as "brown flight". That's the first time I have heard that expression, and I'm sure that were it on the BBC, he would not have got air time - or the link would have strangely failed in mid conversation.

James O'Brien said he came back from holiday to find 'five thousand emails' , but he had created a new folder, put half the emails in it, and thus 'cleared his backlog'.

I do miss Jeremy Paxton and Andrew Neil.

[Stanley]

I don't watch LBC David and you are right, plenty to tackle Cleverly on!
See THIS BBC Verify report on the asylum cases.
The government says it has delivered one of Rishi Sunak's pledges - to clear the "legacy backlog" of asylum cases - but its own figures published today show there are still more than 4,500 cases in that backlog. The government originally defined this "legacy backlog" as all asylum claims - waiting for an initial decision - made before 28 June 2022. In a statement to parliament in December 2022, Mr Sunak said "we expect to abolish the backlog of initial asylum decisions" by the end of 2023. On 1 January 2024, the Home Office said: "The prime minister's commitment of clearing the legacy asylum backlog has been delivered." But it also released statistics on 2 January that classified 4,537 cases as still "awaiting an initial decision" in a column marked "legacy backlog". The Home Office defines an initial decision as being either granting or refusing asylum or another form of protection. We have asked whether highlighting the 4,500 cases where further work needs to be done counts as an "initial decision", but the Home Office has not responded.
HERE'S Cleverley's version on BBC Today.
However, the number of applications since June 2022 awaiting an initial decision has risen from 900 to over 94,000. This so-called new "flow backlog" is now larger than the legacy backlog was when Mr Sunak promised to abolish it in December 2022. Under questioning, Mr Cleverly said it was "impossible" to say how long it will take to get through outstanding asylum cases. But he added the government enhanced the asylum system by adding "more people", refining "processes", and implementing "real accountability".
'Brown Flight'. I've never heard of it either but it sounds feasible to me.

[Stanley]

See THIS report that the claims on processing asylum seekers are not going away.
The UK's statistics watchdog is looking into the government's claims to have cleared the asylum backlog. On Tuesday, the Home Office said it had fulfilled a pledge to clear a "legacy" backlog of 92,000 applications lodged before July 2022. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak also tweeted that the government had cleared "the backlog of asylum decisions". But official figures show a decision had not been reached in 4,537 of those "legacy" cases. And they also showed that there are still 98,599 cases in the overall backlog where an initial decision has yet to be made. The Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR), which monitors the use of official statistics in the UK, has confirmed it is looking into the government's claims.
Apart from this all the other political news is electioneering but I suppose we had better get used to that. I get the impression that general opinion is sooner rather than later, May seems to be the favourite.

[Tripps]

If the Government's aim in this matter is to over complicate it all and give so much confusing information that the people no longer understand what's going on - then as far as I'm concerned they have succeeded.

[Tripps]

I look at the TV pictures of the Junior doctors' strike picket lines, and it saddens me. Who would have thought that was ever possible? Indee should it be allowed at all. Will the Police be next or the armed forces?

Unworthy thought, but I look at their faces hear the interviews - the last two from a Sikh gentleman and a Chinese lady - and ever so gently wonder if their commitment to this country is as deep as one would wish. I cannot imagine the doctors from the first half of my life ever doing such a thing.

I wonder what Doctor Arthur Morrison would have made of it all.

[Stanley]

I think you could well be right about the government and obfuscation of asylum information David.
As for the doctors, as with any other strikers I refuse to judge them because I don't know what the pressures are. I suspect Arthur might have said the same......
See THIS BBC report of Sunak's hints about the election date.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak says he is working on the assumption that he will hold a general election "in the second half of this year". In recent weeks, there has been speculation he might call one in May, when there are local elections. Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer accused him of "squatting in Downing Street for months on ends, dithering and delaying while the country wants change". He said both the country and the Labour Party were ready for an election. Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey also called Mr Sunak a "squatter... holed up in Downing Street, desperately clinging on to power rather than facing the verdict of the British people". The prime minister had "bottled" a May poll, Sir Ed said. The latest the next election could legally be held is 28 January 2025.
My advice is to look back at his other statements and judge his capacity for veracity from that. This man is a spiv, I have said so ever since he appeared on the scene from nowhere. Don't trust a word he says
THIS Matter deserves very careful scrutiny It carries with it a whiff of corruption.

[PanBiker]

One should ask the question about cost seeing as the country is strapped for cash. Elections are expensive especially National ones. It would be a lot cheaper to do them at the same time as all the others which are no doubt, up to a point budgeted for. Maybe he wants to leave a note to say that there is no money.

[Tripps]

THIS Matter deserves very careful scrutiny It carries with it a whiff of corruption.

Agreed - and the fact that Pat McFadden MP is leading it is a good thing. I heard an interview with him recently and was impressed. He was the most straight talking MP I've heard for a long time. I'd vote for him.

[Stanley]

That's a very good point Ian.....
See THIS report.
Rishi Sunak had significant doubts about sending migrants to Rwanda when he was chancellor, papers seen by the BBC suggest. They suggest he wanted to scale back No 10's original plans. They also indicate Mr Sunak was not sure they would stop Channel crossings. They also suggest he was reluctant to fund reception centres to accommodate migrants instead of using hotels or private housing because "hotels are cheaper".
Pointless comparing what Sunak advocated when he was Chancellor with his views as Prime Minister. Two completely different stand points. As Chancellor his main thought was to rein in government expenditure, as PM it is what is politically more effective and be damned to the cost.
HERE'S another instance of the Tory Party's internal instability.
Conservative Chris Skidmore is quitting as an MP over the government's energy plans, triggering a by-election to replace him. The former minister said he could not continue as a Tory MP ahead of a vote on a bill on Monday to guarantee annual oil and gas licensing rounds. The Kingswood MP added his "personal decision" meant his constituents deserved the chance to elect a new MP. He had already announced plans to leave Parliament at the next election. The government announced the bill in November, in a bid to draw a dividing line with Labour, which has said it will not issue new licences if it wins power. Ministers say the legislation, which will fix yearly North Sea fossil fuel licensing in law, will help improve the UK's energy security. They argue the UK will still need oil and gas to meet its energy needs, even if it reaches its goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2050. But Mr Skidmore, who signed the UK's 2050 net zero commitment into law as an energy minister under Theresa May, said the bill would send a "global signal that the UK is rowing ever further back from its climate commitments". In a statement on X, formerly Twitter, he added it would "in effect allow more frequent new oil and gas licences" to be issued. He added he could not support this in next week's vote, adding: "The future will judge harshly those that do.
This is a powerful criticism of Sunak's strategy to slacken the impact of net zero on the economy as an election ploy.

[Stanley]

See THIS BBC report of what that nice Mr Hunt thinks about what Chris Skidmore said about the governments treatment of climate change.
Jeremy Hunt has said he "profoundly" disagrees with former Conservative minister Chris Skidmore who quit as an MP over the government's energy plans. Mr Skidmore announced on Friday he was standing down ahead of a vote on a bill on Monday to guarantee annual oil and gas licensing rounds. The chancellor said: "It is very sad to lose a respected colleague like Chris Skidmore. "But I do profoundly disagree with the reasons that he gave for resigning." Mr Skidmore, who signed the UK's 2050 net zero commitment into law as an energy minister under former Prime Minister Theresa May, said the bill would send a "global signal that the UK is rowing ever further back from its climate commitments".
You must make up your own mind about what he said but my reading of it is that after the resignation of a senior minister over government policy in an election year another more senior figure had to give a rebuttal and Jeremy Hunt was given the job by Sunak. My own opinion is that of course Skidmore was correct. Granting more licenses for fossil fuel extraction is no different that burning coal, it's only a matter of degree.
Not mentioned here is the scandal of the biggest CO2 emitter in Europe, Drax where they burn trees. That should be rectified.....

[Stanley]

See THIS BBC report that there are signs that the government is taking the Horizon scandal seriously.
Ministers are to meet to consider measures into clearing the names of hundreds of sub-postmasters convicted in the Post Office Horizon scandal. Justice secretary Alex Chalk will meet Kevin Hollinrake, the minister for the Post Office, on Monday. It comes after the prime minister told the BBC the government was reviewing options to help victims of the scandal. More than 700 branch managers were convicted of false accounting, theft and fraud based on faulty software. The Post Office - which is wholly owned by the government - acted as the prosecutor when it brought the cases against its sub-postmasters between 1999 and 2015. Some sub-postmasters wrongfully went to prison, many were financially ruined. Some have since died. Many victims of the scandal are still fighting to have their convictions overturned or to secure full compensation after being forced to pay out thousands of pounds of their own money for shortfalls that were caused by Horizon accounting software. It has been described as the most widespread miscarriage of justice in British history, but to date, fewer than 100 people have had their convictions quashed, prompting calls for all convictions from the scandal to be overturned. The Post Office had the power to decide on bringing the original prosecutions, and its appointed lawyers presented the evidence in court. But one option now would be for the Crown Prosecution Service and its own lawyers to step in as appeals continue to be heard.
This last point is perhaps the most important but is curiously not spelled out in the report. Because O its role in the or5iginal prosecutions the Post Office has the power to decide if appeals against the verdicts can go ahead. Reports are that they have been blocking some of them. This is obviously unfair and what is being considered now is a blanket pardon for everyone convicted using Horizon as evidence.
See THIS for another example of a Tory Minister being accused of rule-breaking.
Claims that Pensions Minister Paul Maynard broke parliamentary rules by using taxpayer money to fund Conservative Party work and campaigning are to be assessed by a watchdog. The Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (Ipsa), which oversees MPs' expenses, told the BBC it would refer the claims to its compliance officer. Mr Maynard said he believed he had the proper agreements in place.
This may seem to be only a trivial matter but it looks like another instance that damages Sunak's promise of 'professionalism, integrity and accountability' and the aspiration is in tatters.

[PanBiker]

More than 700 branch managers were convicted of false accounting, theft and fraud based on faulty software.

Not strictly true the anomalies were brought about by Fujitsu employees in the technical support department altering balances via programmed back doors into the system which they continually denied could not be done. The users saw it as a faulty system but it was a designed in feature unknown and denied.

[Stanley]

What emerged yesterday was the fact that during a Beta Version trial of the Horizon programme two post masters were prosecuted for anomalies and any amnesty should include them as well.

See THIS BBC report for yet ano0ther example of Tory disarray on climate matters.
Plans to guarantee annual oil and gas licensing rounds are "a total distraction" which reinforce the idea the UK is "not serious" about tackling climate change, a senior Tory has said. Former minister Sir Alok Sharma said he would not vote for the upcoming Offshore Petroleum Licensing Bill. The government says the plans will help strengthen the UK's energy security. It argues the country will still need to use some fossil fuels even after it reaches net zero, and that it is better for this to be produced domestically than imported. However, Sir Alok, who was president of the COP26 climate summit when it was hosted by the UK, said the bill was "smoke and mirrors" and "frankly changes nothing".
This is not a good look for a government trying to persuade the public that it is making a good job of running the country.

[Stanley]

Have a look at THIS
A group of Conservative MPs, led by former immigration minister Robert Jenrick, will try to force changes to the government's flagship Rwanda Bill. The bill seeks to revive the government's plan to send some asylum seekers to the east African country. The group, believed to number about 40 MPs, say the changes will "strengthen" the law and stop people smuggling into the UK via small boats. Mr Jenrick said "the Bill as drafted simply will not work". He is backed by former prime minister Liz Truss, former home secretary Suella Braverman, former party leader Iain Duncan Smith and former cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg. The amendments are expected to be tabled early next week At least nine former Cabinet ministers are thought to be supporting four amendments.
Am I right in thinking that this is more about a group of Tories attempting to force the Party to the Right rather than any genuine concern about the efficacy of the legislation. Jenrick is a 'Johnny come lately' who has failed in the two posts he held and is now trying to make a name for himself on Suella Braverman's coat tails. Could I be right in suspecting that the European Research Group will be lurking somewhere in the background?
Once again, this is not a good look for a party trying to give the impression that the Tories are a well-oiled political machine.....

[Stanley]

See THIS for what I regard as a shameful matter.
This time last week the ITV drama on the Post Office scandal hadn't even finished. And now the government has announced a change in the law with massive constitutional, political, practical and financial implications. The wheels of politics suddenly whizzing around, after the wheels of justice creaked at a glacial rate for ages.
The Daily Telegraph cartoon today is spot on.



This is why I see this as shameful. It has been obvious for ten years that the Horizon programme was at fault and the Post office Executives and politicians turned a blind eye to the injustice that even drove some to take their own lives.
Anyone who reads Private Eye has been aware of this thanks to Richard Brooks' reports.
What will be even more sickening is the fact that the politicians will now start to congratulate each other on the actions that are at last being taken.
Meanwhile in another part of the Westminster forest see THIS equally shameful report.
Liberal Democrat MPs have been given a standard letter to send to constituents asking about Sir Ed Davey's role in the Post Office scandal. The Lib Dem leader has been under pressure since it emerged he initially refused to meet campaigner Alan Bates when he was a minister. He says he "deeply regrets not realising that the Post Office was lying to him". The BBC has seen a draft response to emails about the issue. The document says that "if asked about Ed's role", Lib Dem MPs should reply by stressing that "the scandal took place over many years from 1999, during which time different governments and ministers from all parties were in post". The script continues: "For 19 months, between 2010 and early 2012, the now Liberal Democrat Leader, Ed Davey, served as Postal Affairs Minister. While Ed was Minister, the scandal was not raised with Ed on the floor of the House of Commons."
Damage limitation at its most blatant in an election year. Is it any wonder that we are all disillusioned with politics and politicians. The worst thing about this is that the good politicians (and there are many of them) are tarred with the same brush and suffer because of the actions of others.

[Stanley]

I've already voiced my opinion about Sunak's latest moves in respect of the Middle East. See THIS for a significant moment in terms of preparations for the General Election.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has allowed talks to go ahead between Labour and the civil service, ahead of the general election expected this year. The talks are aimed at ensuring a smooth transition in the event that an opposition party wins power. The meetings would enable Labour to establish relationships with civil servants and exchange information. Simon Case, who heads the civil service, will oversee and arrange the discussions. Confirming the move, a Cabinet Office spokesman said: "In line with the long-standing process set out in the cabinet manual, the prime minister has authorised access talks between the official opposition and civil service."
This is a technical matter but will be significant in Sunak's thinking as he can't be very optimistic about his Party's prospects.

[Tripps]

A war saved Mrs Thatcher, and Mr Sunak seems to have read his modern history of the Tory party.

I saw him last night in Downing Street, planning and authorising the bombing of Yemen, and today just hours later, he pops up in Ukraine, [ having travelled by train from Poland ! to have his photo taken and give more money to their president.

What could possibly go wrong? All we need now is Keith Vaz (who was born in Aden) to stick his oar in.

Stop the world. . . . . (again)

IPS - An expert in international relations Dr David Wearing is quietly saying on Sky now that the Houthis held out for seven years in a war against Saudi Arabia - supported by USA. and UK - and emerged stronger - so a few missiles last night will make little difference. He says they will retaliate. He seemed to me, to know what he was speaking about, and made sense.

Someone should have a word with the Israelis - this is getting out of hand.

[Stanley]

"Someone should have a word with the Israelis - this is getting out of hand."
I was thinking about the Middle East last night David and that's more or less the conclusion I came to. Going further back, for Israelis read Zionists. I have been questioning right wing Zionism in Israel for many years and have been threatened with expulsion by the Labour Party for daring to speak out but what we are looking at now, an incipient war on the Middle East , can be traced back to the Zionist view of the Palestinian Arabs. Despite Palestine being their home they have been oppressed and squeezed into less and less space ever since the founding of what we now see as the State of Israel. In itself an expression of the feelings of guilt by some of the chief oppressors of the Jews. These Zionist policies have led to more and more organised opposition to Israel among Arabs all over the Middle east from Iran to organisations like HAMAS which are automatically described as 'terrorist'.
These are the factors which are driving the Middle East into a general war. Yemen has reacted, all that is needed now is Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Revolutionary Guard in Iran to come out into the open and we have WWIII.
As for Sunak, you are correct David.


Later.... I heard a UN spokesman in charge of aid drawing attention to what seems like the illegal behaviour of the IDF in encouraging the migration of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to neighbouring countries. He said that this seems to the UN to be a form of ethnic cleansing.
I have said all along that there is a hint of the IDF being not only anti HAMAS but anti-Palestinian as well. Some members of the Knesset have directly called for the removal of Palestinians from Gaza.

[Stanley]

See THIS for the current political preoccupation.
The UK had "no choice" but to take military action against Houthis in Yemen over their attacks in the Red Sea, the foreign secretary has said. Lord Cameron said the UK had given the group "warning after warning" before joining US-led strikes this week. Writing in the Sunday Telegraph, he said prices would rise in the UK if Houthis blocked important trade routes. The pro-HA
MAS group have been attacking ships in the Red Sea, claiming to be targeting Israel over the war in Gaza. Their attacks on cargo ships - some of which have no clear connection to Israel - have led major shipping companies to divert vessels away from the Red Sea, instead taking a longer route around southern Africa. Lord Cameron said the UK took part in the strikes to defend "freedom of navigation". He also suggested Britain could strike Houthi targets again if their attacks continued. "If the Houthis deny this passage to ships, vital supply chains are threatened and prices will go up in Britain and across the globe," he said. "We will work with allies. We will always defend the freedom of navigation. And, crucially, we will be prepared to back words with actions."
What the noble lord did not say was that this action in Yemen is direct proof that Israel's war against HAMAS in Gaza has spread to the Houthis in Yemen and that it is no simple matter to stop the Houthi attacks against shipping. Even though the IDF have bombed HAMAS 'back into the Stone Age' they are still firing missiles out of Gaza and there is every reason to believe that the Houthi could do the same.
(Egypt's revenue from the Suez Canal is going to be affected, what will their attitude be to a fellow2 Arab state?)
See THIS report on the opinion of the minister in charge of the Post Office.
The minister responsible for the Post Office says he wants to see people jailed over the Horizon IT scandal.
Kevin Hollinrake said that people found to be responsible for the scandal "must be held to account" after the official inquiry reaches a verdict. He added that he didn't think there was a "hope in hell" of the Post Office bringing private prosecutions.
Speaking on Any Questions he added that the same should have applied to the bank executives in 2008.
Not often I agree with a Tory minister but in this case I totally agree with him. I have long averred that a few executives going out of the door in handcuffs would concentrate the minds of those left in post wonderfully!

[Stanley]

See THIS latest pronouncement on the Houthi by our Foreign Secretary, the Noble Lord Cameron.
Foreign Secretary David Cameron said the UK is "prepared to back our words with actions" against the Houthis, after taking military action in Yemen over their attacks in the Red Sea. Lord Cameron told the BBC the US-UK air strikes were needed after months of attacks on shipping, despite warnings. Sir Keir Starmer said he had backed the operation as "action had to be taken". But the Labour leader said he would consider whether to support further action "on its merit". Looking at the global security situation on the BBC's Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg programme, Lord Cameron cautioned it is "hard to remember a more unstable, dangerous and uncertain world". He said the "red lights on the global dashboard are very much flashing", given ongoing wars in Ukraine, the Middle East and Africa.
Reading this reiteration of what has already been said and looking at the picture of Cameron in the report with his hard face on I am reminded of the oft-repeated canard that the UK 'punches above its weight'. This is a load of tosh. Sending two fighter bombers from Cyprus to join in the US assault is no more than gesture politics and what nobody is admitting is that nothing that has been done can alter the inflationary effect of higher shipping costs as vital trade is diverted round Africa.
This means that in my book what has been done is pointless. The only way to get leverage over the Yemeni Houthis is to stop Netanyahu's attack on Gaza, that is the root of this latest problem, the spreading of war-like responses from allies of the Palestinians and HAMAS in the region.
These politicians may feel important in circumstances like these but in reality are about as much use as a chocolate teapot.

[Tripps]

In view of the ongoing action and attacks, on merchant shipping in the Red Sea. is it now time for the nations which "flag" the vessels concerned, to contribute in money and resources in the protection of the ships concerned. Don't flag you ship in Panama, Liberia, or The Marshall Islands, and expect the RN to protect you free of charge I'd say.

Hands up who know exactly where The Marshall Islands are?

Top Ten Flag States

[Big Kev]

Hands up who know exactly where The Marshall Islands are?

Not me guv'nor, I'd have to Google it

[Big Kev]

Hands up who know exactly where The Marshall Islands are?

Not me guv'nor, I'd have to Google it

I did and now I do