POLITICS CORNER

[Tardis]

Party political

Is that the same Tim Yeo that declares an interest in something but sits on a committee looking into it. Whole £140,000 per year reasons not to have him as any kind of spokesman

Party season Stanley.

Labourlist today is advocating the end of the Labour Party Conference

As to your 80%, I wonder how many of them have mortgages on their over valued properties (House prices increased by 300% under the last administration before the crash)? How many of them wouldn't have that property if some of the QE hadn't been done?

There was a man on Today this morning that explained this, and it would have been a whole lot simpler if we'd taken the Iceland route (for the banks). House prices would have been lower, negative equity greater, and the economy would be moving on the credit that is available

Another storm is brewing in food, and I'm hearing that the English Fruit Crop harvest has received a bit of a blow from the 'summer'

[Whyperion]

Still seems to be plenty of local wild blackberries and apples around in good numbers , not enough to feed a nation , but as british fruit always complains we dont buy enough of it and there is a wasted glut normally , things should be back to normal and the jam makers no doubt using strawberries from chile.

[Stanley]

Cleggie comes back from holidays and plotting and has evidently received instructions from his party to reverse his budget vote in favour of lowering top rate of tax. This is conference season flim flam but another indication of what's happening in the Coalition. Instead of nit-picking about party points all the parties should be getting together and taking a very hard look at the role of the banks in failing to route the capital being manufactured by the Bof E into investment in growth. The results of the next general election are a Westminster Village question, not the preoccupation of the country. Focus, revision and action are needed and this needs cooperation instead of a mass of infighting to protect share of vote.

[Stanley]

Politics news has started warming up but it's all party infighting, not substantive news about the economy and measures to fight the ongoing decline.

[Whyperion]

Cannot remember if its Romney or his proposed deputy Ryan in the USA presidential candidates , promising a better America with Jobs for All. One wonders just how anyone seriously expects that to be delivered (protectionism ?) (Does anyone else think they are trying to look and sound like Cameron and Osborne ? ) . I don't think that the US is served well in the modern era with elections every 4 years , the 5 year cycle in the UK does give a little more time to create real change for the future without worrying about electioneering.

[Stanley]

Chinese Whispers from the Westminster Village that the old boys coalition inside the Tory Party may hold. It looks as though Cameron is going to re-shuffle but Osborne could be safe. Sacking him would be seen as failure on the economic front. Party unity will be put before the needs of the country. Par for the course.... Can you remember when the mantra was that the Tories understood money?
Another headache looms up. The paralympics are going to trigger debate on the disabled just as the Tory cuts in Disablement Benefit start to bite. There are straws in the wind already, athletes saying that without the support they have had from the benefits system they couldn't have trained for the Games. We are going to hear a lot more about this.

[Bruff]

Suggestions following the lobby briefing this morning that the reshuffle will occur tomorrow - on the basis that it won't be a Wednesday as there's PMQs and that several current Ministers will be making announcements this week (and so they won't be reshuffled).

Have to say giving Ministers a good amount of time to get to grip with their briefs, as has happened with this Parliament, is refreshing. Moving folk every 12months seems a bit too short a timescale to me. Cameron had long floated prior to 2010 his intention to give any team of his time so he's true to this. In addition this intention helped I guess with the reality of a coalition where opposition shadows didn't move to the Government brief - for example, Mr Hammond was shadow Chief Secretary but that went to Mr Laws as a part of the coalition arrangement. It's worth noting that Mr Byrne left his 'no money left' note for Hammond - his shadow for some time and a person he got on well with and considered a friend. It would no doubt have remained a private matter - as all these notes generally are (who knows what 'bombshells' have been left in past by incumbents for the replacements?) - had Hammond read it. Instead it was the seemingly rather humourless Mr Laws who opened it and used it for political ends against all convention.

Mr Laws appears to be on his way back - an admitted liar who lied for monetary gain out of tax payers coffers. Rather depressing. One thing at the time that puzzled me was his punishment included suspension from the Commons for two weeks. This is not a 'punishment' for him (he seemed to spend the time writing a book), but rather his constituents who were denied their voice in the Commons for that two week period. Very odd.

Richard Broughton

[Stanley]

That's the impression I got last night listening to the news Richard. It looks as though Cameron has been rearranging the deck chairs over the weekend. What depressed me was hearing that the odds are that Ossie stays in place. Mind you, it's a moot point whether he is actually formulating economic policy (or lack thereof!). His latest pronouncements are pathetic and his colleague Davis was quite right in his criticisms. Throwing a few millions at construction isn't going to make a bit of difference. We tend to forget that less than half the austerity cuts have bitten yet. It strikes me that two things have become obvious over the last few months. Austerity automatically reduces growth and the banks are the most inefficient conduit for injecting money into the economy. There is a curious lack of recognition of these factors or any changes to policy to counteract them.
I said it four years ago and I'll say it again. Look back to 1939 and recognise that instead of cutting, deficit funding finance should be used to re-vitalise the economy by injecting money into the base of the pyramid. At the moment we have the worst of all worlds, the borrowing requirement rising continually to finance the decline. If we are going to borrow surely it's better to use it to raise demand by increasing disposable income in the lowest 80%.
I have a funny feeling that if it hadn't been for the eventual consequences of the botched Euro structure coming home to roost at exactly the wrong time, Europe could have been the first to try the 1939 model. After all Germany saw the results of this after WW2 with the massive injection from the Marshall Plan. As it is they are locked into decline by the millstone of the Mediterranean countries. Bankia in Spain gets a subsidy equal to its half year loss, over $5.6billion. Moody downgrades the whole of the EU from 'stable' to 'negative'. This is reality and all the evidence points to the continuation of the train wreck.
On a different matter, I note the strange lack of Opposition activity. This is a consequence of the old political principle not to interfere in private grief and let the Coalition get on with enlarging the hole it finds itself in. This is perfectly logical in party political terms but makes no sense in the context of national policy and the overall good of the country. Time to stop politicking and start acting like statesmen and women. Problem is, where is the resource of talent?

[Tardis]

Lansley has gone (job done)

Warsi has gone

Some spin going into the movement of Ken Clarke

Apparently little or no change in the Lib Dem ranks apart from the fraudster Laws back, and the useless Sarah Tether sacked. The economy needs to grow, and it is fairly obvious that Vince hasn't a clue

The silence from the opposing benches is deafening

[Bruff]

Mr Clarke's mistake was to try and save too much money by encouraging greater use of community sentences and having prisoners working and engaged as a part of their rehabiltation so preventing reoffending. Far better to waste money by banging on about 'prison works' and locking 000s up with no engagement etc etc.

I think that's the jist of it.......

Richard Broughton

[Stanley]

Exactly Richard.... Quite depressing really because the general tenor of the new appointments signals a shift to the right and steady as she goes. More about Cameron defending his position in the party than serious rethinking of policy. It's developing into a catastrophe, all the evidence is that Austerity doesn't work and the key is deficit financed investment directly into the economy by-passing the banks and the City who have proved themselves to be self-serving and as useful as a chocolate teapot. The evidence from the inter-war years suggests that pressure on the bottom 80% will increase, unrest will start to be a major factor and eventually someone will realise what is needed, campaign on that basis and win an election. My prediction is that popular protest will develop into a campaign for a living wage. One of the big differences between now and the 1930s is that unemployment has been converted into under-employment to keep the raw figures down. This may be good political strategy but it's just as corrosive for the workers.
The political principle at the moment is aimed at retaining power not pursuing the best policies for the country as a whole. In the end this will fail but in the process we are going to build a legacy of deprivation and decline that will be terribly damaging.

[Stanley]

I sent yesterday's post to my friend Steve who is an eminent historian of the inter war period and he agreed, adding "And it will be worse because those most affected will be the young, the already socially and economically marginalised, and especially but not only ethnic minorities. Where is the social contract which with its ups and downs was negotiated during the long course of the 20th century and which functioned well enough for the less fortunate to give them a stake and a sense of belonging". He went on to ask the same question that I did; where are the dedicated social democrats who are going to lead us out of this crisis? Forget party, socially aware politicians exist in all shades of political opinion. Perhaps what will save us in the end is a new Social Democratic Party, an alliance of the Good Guys! I was listening to Bill Clinton speaking at the Democratic Party Convention and he gave the same message, whilst confrontational politics can be good, progress is made when politicians cooperate beyond the party line.
It becomes clear that the re-shuffle is a concerted attempt to marginalise the LibDems in the Coalition. I can only see one explanation for the lack of protest from them, they value 'participation' in government over confrontation.

[Stanley]

The ECB fires the 'Big Bazooka' and promises to spend unlimited amounts of money buying ailing country's bonds on the secondary market thus lowering the interest rate on future borrowings. The markets react immediately by rising strongly. So that's all right then?
The first thing to note is that market euphoria is ephemeral, expect a reaction downwards as the bazooka is scrutinised because there are one or two worrying little time bombs embedded in it. The first one is that the mechanism won't be activated until the individual countries apply for the support and part of that process is the acceptance of constraints such as fiscal supervision and increased austerity measures. Spain still doesn't admit that they need a bail out and this could be a problem. There is the question of how this affects Greece who have been offered far more stringent terms and have not yet signed up to the deal, their attitude is that they want a relaxation of the conditions. The third, and as far as I am concerned, the biggest problem emerged in one sentence; "The ECB can afford this subsidy because they have access to unlimited money, they will simply 'create it'. Quite true but in the process of doing this they dilute the Euro and in effect devalue the currency. This means that every member of the Euro zone is going to be subsidising this offer of last resort. It doesn't end there, Germany, in addition to suffering the general effect of devaluation is committed to paying a direct subsidy to the ECB as the healthiest economy in Europe and therefore has most to lose. What is the reaction of the German electorate going to be?
I have a larger problem. At the root of all this is the inescapable fact that 'The Bazooka' is the oldest trick in the book. Financing bad debt by devaluing the base currency. In other words, with more debt but spread across the whole of the Euro-zone. No real value is being created and in the end the money comes out of a subsidy from the more viable economies to the ones who have performed the worst. In the process, the amount of money available for investment in growth is reduced, exacerbating the base problem of lack of growth. This is bad news for the UK despite the optimistic pronouncements we are hearing at the moment. It is bad because the pound will increase in value against the Euro affecting our ability to compete in export markets. The value of UK banks investment in Europe will fall in real terms. Even worse, there is no guarantee that bond interest rates will fall once the markets get a proper handle on what is happening. In case you hadn't noticed, I am not impressed. What does the EU do next if the bazooka misfires? I suspect that the train wreck continues.....

[Stanley]

Fascinating but sad to see the Coalition fermenting with rumours of stalking horses and plaintive statements from the LibDems that 'nothing has changed'. Meanwhile we have a chancellor who was booed at the paralympics when he stood up to present prizes, a climate change denier in charge of DEFRA, a transport minister who favours a third runway at Heathrow even though Cameron says 'it won't happen in this parliament' and a 'Justice Minister' who is from the flog 'em and hang 'em brigade. Boris makes noises about going back onto the back benches while Cameron does his best to assure everyone that he's still in charge. All down to party politics and the Tories doing what they always do when in trouble, swing to the right.
Meanwhile Branson's legal challenge to the franchise decision means that in effect the West Coast Line will be 'nationalised' for a while. Previous experience of this mechanism is that under government control, with the managers being allowed to manage without looking over their shoulders at shareholders, the franchise will run more efficiently.
Today the Coalition will announce a bonfire of H&S requirements and employee protection in an effort to 'improve' the business environment. Is this progress or window dressing?
Meanwhile, the Euro-Zone still thrashes about trying to persuade the markets that their plans are working. Time will tell but the longer they take, the greater the danger of a market backlash. They are nowhere near out of the woods yet.
I shall ignore them and go into the shed where I can do something useful....

[Nolic]

Comrade, you forgot about the Health Minister who toadies to the Murdochs and supports Virgin Health taking on all the lucrative work from the NHS in his own constituency. Nolic

[Bruff]

..............and indeed is a supporter of homeopathy (or magic if we want to get technical about these things).

Richard Broughton

[Stanley]

You're both right, somehow I mentally cancelled out anything to do with Jeremy Hunt! Education comes under the spotlight today as it transpires that Ofqual did demand higher standards in August and despite protests from the markers made them alter the standards. The question is what pressure was applied by Gove? I see nothing wrong with changing marking criteria but it should be done incrementally over a long period of time so that the message can get through to the teachers and markers and allow gradual adjustments, not a last minute edict focussing on (as it seems) one subject. This smacks of not only incompetence but a despicable disregard for the students and their aspirations. They should have come first, not the application of a politically motivated policy rooted more in Tory DNA than sound educational principles.
Meanwhile in Euro land, Merkel announces that allowing Greece to leave the Euro-zone would cost more than bailing them out. This contradicts the ECB and is perhaps a sign that the politicians have realised the consequences to the stronger economies of a Greek default. The only thing I am certain about in all this is that it shows clearly what a deep hole the EU politicians are in. They are damned whichever way they turn and the big question is how long the markets will endure the continuing uncertainty. If the decision is to actually bite the bullet and support all of the ailing economies the markets will like this but what are the consequences for the Euro as a currency? At the very best it will be a massive drain and a consequent devaluation. What will the electors of the strong economies make of this?

[Whyperion]

I always thought GCSEs were meant to be marked to an absolute standard , to avoid the averaging of O Levels , which were more subjective and moderated accross the range ( so the better all were taught the grades generated were relative to each candidate , rather than a true mark of individual performance )

[Stanley]

There is no such thing as an 'absolute standard' in marking. This problem is not new, Holistic Marking was a hot topic in the US education system in the 1980s when I was in California.The problem here is the fact that the goal posts were moved suddenly and only a fortnight before the results were announced. Standards need to be monitored and adjusted but it should be long term and in cooperation with those who teach.
Big day in Europe today, the Dutch general election is being fought on whether to change the relationship with the EU as the Dutch are fed up with what many see as subsidising the lazy Mediterranean countries. The German Supreme Court rules on whether the ECB changes to funding the Bazooka are legal and the EU Commission has to make some definitive statements about the extent of the bail out.
Lots of discussion about the mismatch between GDP figures and the number of unemployed. As might be expected, the more optimistic index of employment is being taken as evidence that the GDP figures are perhaps better than they appear. 'The Green shoots of Spring' syndrome. I'll agree that the GDP figures are crude and not necessarily as bad as they look but the employment figures are even cruder. They take no account of the quality of the jobs that have been taken and thus reduced the crude figures. Far to many people are under-employed or employed on that strange concept, the 'no wage' job. It is possible for someone to be given a job at say £15 an hour but a small clause in the agreement limits the pay to the number of hours worked on a specific task. In effect these people are 'interns' working for nothing but in the statistics they are fully employed at a good rate. Ploys like this dilute the employment statistics and it would be much better if the actual wage paid was used as the criterion whether someone had a job or not. How many jobs in the UK pay a proper living wage?

[Stanley]

The Hillsborough enquiry.... no point stating the bleeding obvious but I do wonder how far culpability and possible prosecutions will be pursued. If justice is going to be seen to be done heads must roll and the evidence of terrible wrong-doing seems to be overwhelming but why do I have any doubts as to whether this will be the case?
Big sigh of relief in the EU as the Dutch elections produce a result which doesn't mean immediate trouble, the future is another matter, the Dutch are not happy. The German court says that the present level of support for the ECB is legal but, and it's a big but, they say that any increase has to be approved by the Bundestag. The EU president seems to have made a clear commitment to supporting the ailing economies but there are still some very big question marks. One of them is the imposition of bank regulation from the EU and the clear statement that this applies to UK banks as well. Looks as though Ossie has another minefield on his hands. EU black suits invading UK banks and scrutinising them? This is going to give a lot of traction to the anti-EU movement.

[Tardis]

I remember walking up Eccleshall Road on the day of #Hillsborough, and all the traders putting out boards for emergency blood donations

The city was very quiet the day after

One of the people in our circle of friends died 1 week after the event. He'd been there, and was not included in the figures because he didn't die at the scene

It is a sad state of affairs when a supposedly trusted instrument of the state can use it's own position to disguise its own involvement in a scandal. The only thing that can clear it up is a criminal enquiry, and I note the calls for the removal of gongs and pensions already voiced in many quarters because it could strike at the very heart of Lawful integrity.

Paradoxically, it could also strengthen calls for elected PCC's

[Tardis]

there is an open evening at the Library

Wednesday 26th September 3.30 to 7.00pm

To view and give feedback on the drawings for West Craven High revamp and the planned new Church School

Please move this if you feel it needs a topic of its own

It could be the second biggest thing to happen to the town since the supermarkets

[Stanley]

US announces that the Fed is going to buy $40billion of junk bonds per month 'for as long as it takes'. Breathtaking scale and one wonders how much this is due to the election and how much to genuine fear for the economy. All new money and therefore diluting the dollar but I suppose that compared with the size of the US economy it's an acceptable risk and the results will be so far down the road they won't be noticed. Can't help thinking about Marx on what he called 'phantom money'.
I note that Jack Straw came under heavy attack from the Tories after associating the need of the Thatcher government to keep the police (especially the South Yorks police) on side during the Miner's strike. I also note that I am not the only one who agrees with him. Extraordinary measures were needed at the time to ensure that the police would stand form against their own class, and often friends, in the violent confrontations that characterised the strike. These had their effect on the police ethos and Jack Straw did well to make the connection. Remember the manipulation of evidence to bring down Scargill? A similar situation applied in Liverpool in the days when the Militants held the Council. Some very dubious charges were brought against Derek Hatton and his colleagues. To the best of my recollection most, if not all, were eventually disproved. Think back even further to the false charges made against Stalker after he made a report on Ireland which supported the case for judicial killings. This was bad news for the Tory government. His life and the businessman at Bury were ruined by false accusations. There is a long history of political interference with the police and it may be that the Hillsborough enquiry and its aftermath will shed some light on these dark corners.

[Bruff]

Our paths may well have crossed on the day of Hillsborough Michael, as I was walking down Eccleshall Road (having been with friends) into town to get the bus back to Grenoside in north Sheffield and up right past the ground. I was living in Grenoside. There were no buses running and a chap with a hailer was asking for off duty Drs and nurses to make their way to Hillsborough.

I has been to 2 semi finals the years before at Hillsborough, having a colleague who was a debenture holder in the North Stand. I'd always gone with a mate from Grenoside and so approached the ground down Halifax Road to the Penistone Road roundabout - the way the Liverpool fans came that day. In both cases, the police had a tight filter system in place and this ensured that on reaching the ground it was busy yes, but manageable and smooth. Hearing that there was an enormous crush at the Leppings Lane, my immediate thought was that on the day of Hillsborough drunk, aggressive, generally rowdy Liverpool fans had gotten out of control overwhelming the filter, and this led to the mayhem.

Within a day or two in transpired that there had that year been no filter, for reasons even now not satisfactorily explained. From that moment on, I didn't believe a word that was said by the authorities with regards to the behaviour of fans (and that's being charitable), and the reasons for the tragedy.

Richard Broughton

[Tardis]

We lived just above Hunters Bar roundabout (Greystones I think officially), opposite the park along from Vernons the bakers and whilst it was always good to catch the bus it was occasionally a treat to just walk up the road