POLITICS CORNER

[Stanley]

See THIS BBC report.....
Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander has denied leaks ahead of the Budget have damaged the economy, following criticism the speculation has "caused paralysis among businesses and consumers". Recent months have been dominated by media reports about which taxes could increase, with multiple potential measures floated by the government. Former Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane told the BBC's Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg programme this was "the single biggest reason why [economic] growth has flatlined". In response, Alexander said there was always speculation in the run-up to Budgets but the chancellor had been clear about her priorities.
I think the budget might be topic of the week!

[Whyperion]

Did we set the foundations for WW3 in 1945 when we insisted that we had won WW2 and ignored the fact that Russia lost over 30 million lives draining the life blood out of the Nazis?

I dont think we ignored the facts. We concentrated on Building Germany back as a non military based industrial power, we let Degaulle run France and let the precursers to the EEC build to up to the eventual six nations, noting that Spain remained a semi open / closed right wing dictatorship and that there were two eastern entities - The Soviet Union and the Communist Bloc , some of which were more attached to ths Soviets than others with Albania as an isolationist, Yugoslavia with its internal struggles united against too much external interference and ignoring how Czech and Hungarian "independence" was crushed. Berlin remained a listening post for east and west and the UK had the advantage of its holdings in Hong Kong to mildly balance China and had assisted in retaining some western influence in Korea as Japan too was let back into the free west, Vietnam was allowed to "fall" communist with little more help in Laos and Cambodia. Dont get started on Middle East and issues in Africa as the UK Empire collaspse in a controlled disarray depending on money corruption and lack of strong politics and military in the lands we left behind.
What the Soviet Union had, argueably as sucessor to much of the Russian Empire sans Finland , was sea borders from the Baltic to the Black Sea and a route to Hormuz for trade to the Far East and a sea route to Cuba and central america and a network to protect or exploit it. Arguebly too The Soviet funding of Communist groups in the west meant that actually we were far more favourable than we could have been despite disquiet about internal banishments of dissent to sibirian prisons. Was it really 30million Russian Losses or were a lot of them from the other Soviet Republics and what about the theft of food pre and post WW2 from Ukraine by Russian leaders ? Crimea was also the warm , med like retirement homw for the good that extracted the minerals from an inhospitable Siberia and once the break up of the Soviet Union happened that route was not exactly possible,
The Iron Curtain may have collapsed but internal FSB still retained its network to rise under idealogy backed with corruption and a desperate need really for low price basic materials being sold against high value western completed goods imports. The US administrations were too tied up with the Middle East to see where the long term threat would actually come from , and spent its time winning wars - in Iraq and Afganistan yet losing battles for minds, and hearts.

[Stanley]

See THIS latest from the Lords....
Two peers are set to be suspended from the House of Lords for breaching rules, including providing parliamentary services in return for "payment or reward". Former Army chief Lord Richard Dannatt and businessman Lord David Evans of Watford face suspensions of four and five months respectively. The House of Lords' standards watchdog launched separate investigations into the two men following an undercover operation by the Guardian newspaper. Neither peer appealed the standard commissioner's findings or the sanctions, which will come into force once approved by the House of Lords. In the course of his investigation,, external the standards commissioner found that crossbench peer Lord Dannatt had breached the code of conduct by corresponding with ministers and government officials about three companies - UK Nitrogen, Teledyne UK and Blue International Holdings - in which he had a financial interest. The commissioner also identified, external four ways in which Labour peer Lord Evans had broken the rules, including by sponsoring events in Parliament for a company that was owned by his son, and in which he held one-third of the shares. Both men referred themselves to the commissioner after the Guardian reported comments they had made to the newspaper's undercover reporters.

[Tizer]

At last, people are beginning to push back against Trump...
`Judge dismisses cases against ex-FBI director Comey and NY attorney general James' LINK

[Whyperion]

Not sure if ending of trial by jury is a good thing. Maybe there should be provisions for election to be tried by judge/s or a jury for all criminal charges.

I dont think I am happy with "Tourist Tax" es , countries which have them dont always have the business rates and employee taxes that are in the UK. People are paying VAT on their stays anyway. Maybe there is an arguement for some of the apartment hotels which have little direct employees. But overall for economic growth and reducing prices if they are the aims I dont see them passing the relevant test.

Are we meant to be reducing the numbers of civil servants ?

[Stanley]

Peter, I too saw those reports. Whilst they address some specific cases they do nothing to stop Trump's meddling with the Justice System. That will have to be done through the House and the ballot box.

The UK political scene is dominated by THIS.....
We will hear of nothing else this week but the Budget.

[Tripps]

11.55 am According to Sky News -

A document from the OBR has been published in full, and in error, and it effectively contains the entire budget measures !!!

Can it have been accidental or is it just completing a long list of 'leaks' this year?

MP's are referring to the budget measures in PMQ's which they are not supposed to have heard.

Seasoned commentators are lost for words. Beth Rigby has made a quick recovery though.

PS Madame Deputy Speaker - (Chairman of Ways and means) who takes the chair on Budget day, is one Nusrat Ghani MP, who has chosen today to dress as a man. She needs some lessons in choice of collar, and tie tying I've been meaning to visit Betty Boothroyds grave at Thriplow for a while - today might be a good opportunity. to check for any evidence of 'turning'.

[Whyperion]

Badenoch had no real comeback against the Chancellors budget. I suspect again there will be devilish details in small print but generally Rachel has delivered enough of a Labour budget to be accused of taking to fund welfare payments. Well welfare will go up in number terms - as will tax take - but its basically going to be spent generally where the money gets spent straight in the local economies.
There may be cause to query some of the IHT reliefs in selling businesses to effectively employee co-operatives but most contentious issues have been kicked to beyond the date of the next election.
Ending two child benefit cap makes sense as does uplifting by inflation some dud workplace pensions.
Road tax charging for Electric Vehicles I fear sends wrong messages for climate change and the mansion tax I feel is badly planned out on a council tax system that is not fit for purpose.
Inflation - are price rises too baked in at 4 percent (and a rail fare non increase is not going to affect a community with no rail when petrol duty goes up). Borrowing costs for the govt are still around 4 percent = higher than Greece's = but I cannot see a world offering the UK much below 3.9percent short or long term for a long time.
The fiscal drag of fixed tax-free earnings amounts(and a whole load of layers of complexity above that) basically will feed new pavements in deprived areas and civil service pay. The original Tory idea to increase the amount to about a grand a month was a great ambition eroded quickly with the high post-covid / brexit inflation that made everything meaningless. Defence spending and chasing GDP growth and still the situation in Ukraine, trump (And UK) tariff charges and the world if not stopped is certainly not going forward.

[Tripps]

I've been meaning to visit Betty Boothroyds grave at Thriplow for a while - today might be a good opportunity. to check for any evidence of 'turning'.

Well I've been - it was totally quiet and peaceful. Not a soul; and not a sound. inside or outside the church - St George's, Thriplow.
Quite relaxing actually - I'd have stayed longer had it been warmer.

No sign of agitation of the very modest grave - just ashes interred I believe. I had a quiet word. . . .

P1020251.JPG

[Tizer]

Perhaps this Budget will go down in history as the Colander Budget!

[Tripps]

Almost poetic that the leak will be investigated by the OBR Oversight Board.

As in the Board has 'oversight' of OBR activities, or there was an 'oversight' when it was published early.

[Stanley]

Morning David..... What a lovely thing to do, visiting Betty Boothroyd's grave. Thanks for that, I had a lot of time for her.
Yes, I heard about the OBR cock-up. Unbelievable but there you are,it happened. I don't see the point of having an inquiry, a simple notice informing us who was responsible and what sanctions have been applied will do.....
As for the budget itself, I listened to it and wished the Commons hadn't treated it as an extension of PMQs and felt that the correct response was to make so much noise that one had to feel sorry for Rachel Reeves. It wasn't clever, it was simply the height of bad manners.

[Stanley]

Despite all the chatter I don't really see any significant debate about the Reeves Budget.

[Tripps]

You're looking in the wrong places. There's plenty about.

Hint - don't just look at the BBC.

[Whyperion]

Barnoldswick Pendle local by election
・Lib Dem: 59.8 per cent

・Reform: 26.2 per cent

・Conservative: 10.1 per cent

・Labour: 3.9 per cent
result

[Stanley]

I'll admit to being a bit remiss here.... I've only just seen THIS report on aid to Gaza.
The controversial, US and Israel-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) says it is winding down its aid operations in the Palestinian territory, after almost six months. The organisation had already suspended its three food distribution sites in Gaza after the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel took effect six weeks ago. The GHF was set up by Israel and the US to bypass the traditional aid system run by the UN. The UN and other aid agencies refused to co-operate with its system, saying it was unethical and unsafe. Hundreds of Palestinians were killed while seeking food amid chaotic scenes near GHF's sites, mostly by Israeli fire, according to the UN. Israel said its troops fired warning shots. he GHF said on Monday that it was winding down operations now because of the "successful completion of its emergency mission", with a total of three million packages containing the equivalent of more than 187 million meals delivered to Palestinians. The GHF's executive director, Jon Acree, also said the US-led Civil-Military Coordination Centre (CMCC) - which has been set up to help implement US President Donald Trump's Gaza peace plan - would be "adopting and expanding the model GHF piloted". US state department spokesperson Tommy Piggott wrote on X: "GHF's model, in which Hamas could no longer loot and profit from stealing aid, played a huge role in getting Hamas to the table and achieving a ceasefire." Hamas - which denies stealing aid - welcomed the closure of the GHF, Reuters reported.

[Tizer]

The UN and other aid agencies refused to co-operate with its system, saying it was unethical and unsafe.

Almost immediately after it was set up the BBC revealed that gangs of antisemitic anti-Muslim American ex-servicemen went out and joined it and took the opportunity to murder Muslims and stopped some of the aid getting through. The Israelis seemed happy to let them join in the shooting party.
[My thanks to Whyperion who rightly pointed out to me in a PM that I'd mistakenly used the wrong term.]

[Stanley]

I note that the Palestinian Health Agency has flagged up 70,100 deaths caused by Israeli attacks.
Israel tries to discredit the numbers by saying HAMAS runs the service, Their figures are accepted by the UN and most of the other powers as being the most accurate available.....

[Tizer]

In my last post I referred to `gangs of antisemitic American ex-servicemen' going out to the Middle East to kill Muslims. Whyperion rightly PM'd me because I'd made the mistake of using `antisemitic' when they were really `anti-Muslim' so I've corrected the post.

It prompts me to mention once again the confusion over the original meaning of semitic. This sums it up: A "semite" is a term historically used to describe a member of any people who speaks a Semitic language, such as Arabic, Hebrew, and Amharic. While originally a linguistic and geographical term for groups in the Middle East and Horn of Africa, it has become obsolete outside of linguistics due to its complex and often misused history, including in the 19th-century creation of the term "antisemitism".

[Whyperion]

Maybe it should be anti-Islam. I dont know. It seems - and it goes back in modern times to basically Bin Laden and Gulf War 2 , that bits of the islamic world - or groups of fundamentalists - came to see the decadent west - particulary the US and interalia allies like the UK - as the repositry of all things evil - including a shoot first and dont ask any questions policies , perhaps with some (or more) justification. It has resulted with a lot of the "west" responding that any ME foreginers (unless, at the present time. Jews) are all anti US values thus ok to be prejudice away in any way.
Historically the Semites were the Descendants of Shem ( one of the sons of Noah ), the other sons being Ham and Japeth who came to populate other areas of the Globe.
In due course Isaac's sons Jacob and Esau had a falling out over many things, and loosely the Islamic world is considered sons of Esau while Jacob could claim Universal Credit for child support for 13 children from 2 wives and 2 girlfriends. Disputes on how the land should be shared thus continued to the present day with an add in of any other local or further away tribes having their say too. A Bit like Game of Thrones with more tea towels and less tiraras

[Stanley]

Peter, I noted the confusion about Semitism in your post but discounted it as I am often confused by use of the term. The recent witch hunt in the Labour Party is a good example. There was total confusion about how to treat anti-Zionism. So I didn't feel qualified to judge anyone on use of the term.
I often think the most dangerous thing to be in our modern society is 'different'.

[Whyperion]

My query was more about the BBC reportage , which I hadn't seen and wasn't directly referenced - no problem I don't always do that.

So a little digging was needed. The BBC report of 10th September https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm2zy4l8jgeo quotes most facts about the dozen or so specific ex US military that signed up as part of the GHF protection force and made some points about their views and criminal pasts in the US however there were a couple of 12th September footnotes and rebuttles are now included in the article.
An earlier report of 3rd July 2025 has allegations of shooting to kill some Gaza aid seekers https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cnvmry71q5yo but these again have within the story a generalised rebuttle as to the actual facts and the article does not mention the Infidels "Gang" that is implied in the 10th Sept 2025 report and no evidence of any members of the grouping as individuals or working in cohort have evidence against them of any of the killings of the aid seekers which generally seem to be ascribed to Israel IDF forces. My guess is the motorcycle gang have seen the 1000+USD a day pay rate and that is the greater motivation for standing around in the place as they appear to have no clear agreement of what "Make Gaza Great Again" actually should mean.
Perhaps more interesting is https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20250910-modern-crusaders-anti-muslim-biker-gang-hired-to-guard-ghf-gaza-concentration-camps/ take on the BBC report - and unusual the investigation was BBC source led rather than something perhaps more direct into the likes of Middle East Monitor where reportage generally seems unbiased. The fun is the comments section with a load of mud slinging in all directions , Some probably from Isreal Intelligence forces some from Islamic fundamentalist sympathisers. There seems to be opposition to UN / UNWRA - something Trump has previously picked up on, and comments regarding hostages are now superseeded with the events of more hostage returns. The general comment that HAMAS may not actually be the best representation for the Gaza Palestinians may we be correct but as noted before an alternative political representation seems difficult to find ,or achieve.
If I read correct there is some kind of anti Jewish-Ukrainian persons of a higher profile because they wont kowtow to Russia , and same because they will (Or am I totally confused on that ?)
Trump really wishes the Gaza conflict and war in Ukraine would go away so he can get back to the serious business of making money for himself and his family

[Stanley]

See THIS analysis by Chris Mason of the ongoing row over the budget.
You may have seen the blizzard of headlines over the weekend, in which the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, was variously accused of lying and misleading you before her Budget last week. It is my job, after a careful examination of the facts, to call it, on your behalf, in careful, precise language. And in my judgement, on one specific element of what the chancellor and the Treasury told us before the Budget, we were misled. Let's walk through this, step by step. On Tuesday 4 November, the chancellor called an extraordinary pre-Budget news conference.
Chris goes on to give his view of what happened and I'll leave it to him. I think he makes a good case but what do I know of such high finance matters.....

[Whyperion]

Leaving aside the OBR and its reason for existence = how many economic forecasters do we need to change a light bulb ? The treasury has them , the bank of england have them and then a notionally independent OBR have them, no doubt the Cabinet have them , the office of the deputy prime minister has them most departments and many quangos too.
The generality is that of how much "wriggle room" the chancellor has in money terms to the govt of the plans of expenditure and rates of taxation and the yields normally expected of them and the current account/ capital account deficits allowed by parliament when passing a finance bill.
What , maybe unusually , and so far as I can see NOT EXPLAINED was by early October the total tax reciepts for the year were higher than forecast yet general GDP growth was much in line as expected at a fairly low .01percent almost a measuring error.
I have long advocated , for government a need to promote Taxable Economic Growth , and this might just have been inadvertantly achieved. I also feel there may be changes of timing differences and even the number of working days in the measured period of months which may have been overlooked (were the figures "seasonally adjusted"?) The earlier budget kick in of no movement in tax threasholds and the increases in employers national insurance are probably the biggest contribution of the extra tax yield - maybe a bit of the revised capital gains tax too.
But overall is the extra money a factor in changing the tax rates and plans for 2026 onwards ? To me the overall extra take is near trivial and could change , but I also dont agree with the by 2027 cumulative changes to how the overall economy is placed and taxed to fund government plans. My ideas for a crude initial simplification - less tax overall on individuals other than a small increase in scope of higher rates , fairer means of funding local government placing a little more general cash at the local level spend thus increasing meaningful growth that can be seen in high streets.
So Reeves is wrong , but not really for the reasons considered to have been identified

[Stanley]

See THIS BBC report on the latest 'improvement' to a failing justice system........
Updated 34 minutes ago
Jury trials in England and Wales for crimes that carry a likely sentence of less than three years will be scrapped, the justice secretary has announced. The reforms to the justice system include creating "swift courts" under the government's plan to tackle unprecedented delays in the court system. Serious offences including murder, robbery and rape will still go before a jury, and volunteer community magistrates, who deal with the majority of all criminal cases, will take on even more work. David Lammy said the reforms were "bold" but "necessary", but the Conservatives described the plans as the "beginning of the end of jury trials". Retired Court of Appeal judge Sir Brian Leveson was asked by the Lord Chancellor to come up with a series of proposals to reduce the backlog in the courts, in a process which began back in December 2024. These proposals included jury-free trials and more out-of-court settlements like cautions. In July, Sir Brian said "fundamental" reforms were needed to "reduce the risk of total system collapse".
I was brought up in a system where one of the guarantees of fair treatment was judgement by a jury of one's peers. That looks like a very old and antiquated system now....
Is what we are reporting justice?