CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

[Bruff]

Dr Roy W Spencer. Impressive. He is a signatory to An Evangelical Declaration on Global Warming, which states and I quote: Earth and its ecosystems – created by God's intelligent design and infinite power and sustained by His faithful providence – are robust, resilient, self-regulating, and self-correcting.

Make of that what you will

He is also on the Board of the George C Marshall Institute, a US conservative think tank that has amongst others things questioned the science linking tobacco smoking and lung cancer, as well as second-hand smoking-related issues; CFCs and the ozone layer; acid rain, all in attempt to prohibit or delay legislation in these areas.

Make of this what you will.

31,000 scientists. Big number!

You should tell us where it comes from. Tell you what, don't. As I think I know. It's from the Oregon Petition, run by the Oregon Institute for Science and Medicine (don't be too fooled by this impressive-sounding organisation). Signatories - who must hold a BSc or above - agree with the following statements:

First, the proposed limits on greenhouse gases would harm the environment, hinder the advance of science and technology, and damage the health and welfare of mankind

Second, there is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gasses is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth’s atmosphere and disruption of the Earth’s climate.

Right. 32,000 is a big number. But how many people have been canvassed? We do not know - the organisers haven't said. What is their sampling methodology? We do not know - the organisers haven't said. But we do know only BScs and above in the US were canvassed. And we know there are 10,600,000 BSc and above graduates in the US. So, I can say that's 0.3% who agree with the statements and 99.7% either don't or can't be bothered with the nonsense. There. That's an objective assessment right there, from me.

And I didn't even have to mention that the petition was apparently signed by Spice Girls member Geri Halliwell, I.C.Ewe and others (Batson D Belfry?) and Charles Darwin along with assorted members of M*A*S*H and Star Wars.......I could go on

So, make of this 32,000 what you will.

Richard Broughton

[Tardis]

Cut and pasted...don't know why the link isn't 'live' for clicking on

Subject: Can you help?
Dear Sir/Madam,
I am an environmental psychology behavioural change PhD researcher at the University of Sussex . I am currently carrying out research into household fruit and vegetable waste reduction. I really need help recruiting participants for my two part on-line questionnaire and thought that you may be willing to help. I wanted to ask if you would be so kind as to email staff at your council with the details and link of my study (see information below). It is really important to get people's input from different parts of the country.
I feel that this research is of interest, is timely and topical as the topic (food waste) represents an important issue in terms of sustainable living.
Thank you for your consideration.
Best wishes,
Ella Graham-Rowe ( University of Sussex )
To distribute to staff
Are you aged 18 or over? Are you a UK resident? If so, complete our study on household fruit and vegetable waste for the chance to win £100!
I am contracting you to invite you to take part in my latest study.
You are welcome to participate in this study if you are aged 18 or over and a UK resident.
The study will involve you completing two online questionnaires. The first questionnaire should take around 15 minutes to complete. One week later I will send you a link to a second questionnaire should take only a couple of minutes to complete. As a token of my appreciation people who complete both questionnaires will be entered into a prize draw with a chance of winning £100.
Please click on the web link below and complete the first questionnaire. Please also feel free to pass the web-link on to anyone else you think might be willing to participate.

https://www.lifesci.sussex.ac.uk/resear ... /index.php

(If the link does not work please copy and paste into address bar).
Thank you so much for helping me with this research. Your participation is most appreciated!
With best wishes,
Ella Graham-Rowe

Further study details:

Please email Ella Graham-Rowe (ejg26 @sussex.ac.uk) if you have any questions.

The study has been approved by the University of Sussex CREC Research Ethics Committee (c-recpsysci@sussex.ac.uk).

All responses are confidential and will be viewed only by the researchers.

You are free to withdraw at any time without giving reason by contacting the researcher at
ejg26@sussex.ac.uk. If you withdraw, all data relating to you will be permanently deleted from our database.

Data will be collected and stored in accordance with the Data Protection Act 1998.

[Tripps]

I had a go at completing the survey, but as usual got more and more irritated as I progressed, and gave up. She says people throw away 25% of the fruit and veg that they buy. Not if they were brought up in the 1940's they don't!
As usual the choices to each question were not sufficient to give an accurate answer - i.e a choice between 0% and 5% - doesn't cover the one mouldy lemon I've chucked away this week. I can't believe that someone is going to call themselves Doctor as a result of this research.

[Stanley]

Dead right David, wouldn't it be great if rationing was brought back for a while. It would make people concentrate on the food they buy and what they waste. (All right, I thought National Service was OK as well)
Richard, could this bloke Spencer be a member of the Tea Party group of Republicans? I'm afraid to say he triggers my crap detector which has served me well over the years.

[hartley353]

Stanley before dismissing Dr Roy Spencer out of hand take a look at his achievements, Also take a look at Professor Frederick Seitz who wrote the forward to the mentioned petition Then while your crap detector is switched on take a look at Mr Broughton, I know in whom I have trust, people who have been esteemed by their peers, not an internet pundit.

[Stanley]

Hartley, please read what you wrote and recognise that you are aiming derogatory remarks at named members. Express an opinion by all means but do not make personal attacks. We have seen this before on the site and have taken measures to stop it before it escalates. Thank you....

[Bruff]

Thanks for the suggestion. Professor Seitz sure had a distinguished career as a solid-state physicist. I'm not too sure his time as Head of the tobacco company R J Reynolds' Medical Research Committee is as distinguished, given the millions he threw at research 'showing' no evidence for the link between tobacco and serious health problems. But that's from Wiki and so probably a lie despite the references (ahem). So, whether his efforts on climate change can be wholly trusted is a matter for debate. And in doing so, one might reflect on his membership of the George C Marshall Institute, and their errrrm research efforts in various fields shall we say. It's also a strange peer esteem that sees the US's National Academy of Sciences dissociate themselves from a former President.

Bit puzzled why you've suddenly started referring to me as 'Mr' Broughton. Is it to make a distinction between me and the good 'Dr' and 'Professor'?

Anyroads, you do not seem to have engaged on the '31,000 scientists' question. Do you still think it's a meaningful figure to quote? I'm very happy to be persuaded (and it really is very straighforward to do - just explain the sampling and methodologies) as after all, there are very many people with far, far greater knowledge, skills, experience and indeed intellect than me.

Richard Broughton

[Tizer]

Richard, thanks for exposing the failings of the Oregon Petition, I did the same a few years ago on the old OG site. I'll add one thing you didn't mention about the 31,000 figure - many of those people are not scientists because in the early days anyone could sign the petition, they didn't have to be a scientist (as well as the fact that they even accepted obviously made-up names, as you stated).

Professor Frederick Seitz? I'm surprised Hartley wants to admit that man's connection with climate change! Another George C. Marshall Institute man. Have a look at the Wikipedia page for starters.

[hartley353]

People seem to be picking which scientists are respectable now, does this mean a move to my side of the fence. Bruff the choice of title was because I did some research to find whom I was corresponding with. There are a large number of people with your name and stated qualifications. As all this will reach a wider audience it is necessary to make sure others are not misled by who is the person in point. Stanley I re-read the post and can find nothing of offence, but did note a spelling mistake.

[hartley353]

As a seperate post on every collection of names ever gathered there will be a selection of D Ducks, M Mouse etc. For anyone to interpret any meaning to this or to use it as evidence of worth beggars belief.

[Pluggy]

You can't have it both ways, you can't use it to defend your side of the argument if you acknowledge the flaws pointed out by the other side. Its either a worthless document or not. Yes its full of false names but it still has validity ?

And since scientists are dodgy in the first place, its worthless anyhow, allegedly being a list of scientists.

The WTC was brought down by terrorists flying planes into it.
Princess Diana was killed by he chauffeur driving too fast whilst being under the influence.
The yanks did land on the moon in 1969.
JFK was shot by Lee Harvey Oswald.
Just my take on popular conspiracy theories....

[Bruff]

''.........the choice of title was because I did some research to find whom I was corresponding with. There are a large number of people with your name and stated qualifications. As all this will reach a wider audience it is necessary to make sure others are not misled by who is the person in point.''

I'm not quite sure what to make of that, to be honest. It could be construed through the use of the word 'misled' as questioning my honesty and integrity. I'd like to think that's not the case. It's a bit disappointing really, to think that actually that might be the case.

Anyroads, I think I'll quietly withdraw from this now and engage no further with you at least. It doesn't really serve any useful purpose and must be terribly boring for others. I guess you'll see that as a 'victory'.

Richard Broughton

[hartley353]

Apologies Bruff, When you chose to use your full name and qualifications, You could have been confused with the others I have mentioned. You may have noted that to avoid confusion that the press will always add age and close address to qualify the individual. As a non competitive person win or lose mean little to me, but I wish you well and respect your motives.

[Stanley]

Super typhoon Haiyan hits Philippines. Latest re4ports are of winds over 235mph. Glad I'm not in it! (LINK)

[hartley353]

Recieved an email from my friend in Canada, he married the purser from his cruise ship, they have lost all contact with her family in the Phillipines. I can't begin to conceive the worry they must be under, having seen the Tv reports.

[chinatyke]

Super typhoon Haiyan hits Philippines. Latest re4ports are of winds over 235mph. Glad I'm not in it! (LINK)

Welcome to Nanning. It is coming my way! Usually we only get the rain associated with these decaying typhoons and not much damage although there is always the threat of landslides which can interrupt normal life here. Guess I'll need to stock up with a few beers in the fridge and break out my brolly.

[Cathy]

Chinatyke, hope all is well for you.

[Stanley]

He's usually on the site around now but no sign this morning.....
Correction! Elvis is in the building!

[chinatyke]

Chinatyke, hope all is well for you.

Thanks Cathy. By the time Haiyan reached Nanning it had been downgraded into a tropical storm. It dumped a few inches of water on us and then blew over although it is still raining a little. It is now downgraded to a tropical depression as it moves eastwards. It has dropped the daytime temperature from 29C to 19C and some roads were flooded in the city, but nothing unusual there. So as usual, much ado about nothing! I'll venture out tomorrow!

[Stanley]

Glad you got away so lightly China. The more we see of the devastation in the Philippines the worse it gets. The meteorologists have agreed that it was the most powerful tropical cyclone ever recorded. One of the predictions at the climate change conference was that extreme events were on the increase and Haiyan certainly supports this. One of the main drivers was the higher than normal sea surface temperature, around 26C.

[hartley353]

My Canadian friend still has no news of his extended family in the Philippines. When he married his filipino girlfriend he took away the bread winner for the family. The whole family had sponsored her education to allow her a chance in life. John promised to pick up the tab for the education of her younger brothers, and now both are able to take up the family yoke. Their family is in the worst affected area, and there will be a large financial cost to put them back on their feet again, but john as Godfather to the family is ready for the task.

[Tizer]

At last, it's beginning to get through...
"The president of the World Bank, Jim Yong Kim, told BBC News that warming could no longer be ignored. He urged action to reduce emissions to minimise the likelihood of disasters like Typhoon Haiyan, which has claimed thousands of lives in the Philippines."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24925580

"David Cameron says evidence is ‘growing’ for climate change link to storms after Typhoon Haiyan"
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 43229.html

[Tripps]

Cameron says that - but curiously his Energy Secretary Ed Davey, said exactly the opposite on Question Time.
Cut and pasted from BBC website.....
The panel on the BBC One show were asked by an audience member in Portsmouth whether the storm which has affected more than 11 million people in the Philippines was further evidence of mankind creating climate change.
The Conservative politician, Lord Lawson, 81, said there is no link between the two occurrences and there has been no increase in tropical storms for the past 100 years. He said: "Typhoon Haiyan is terrible but I'm afraid these things happen in the tropics. The Atlantic hurricane season this year has been one of the quietest hurricane seasons in living memory.

"If you look at the inter-governmental panel on climate change they say there is absolutely no connection between climate change and tropical storms. "This is I'm afraid a scare. There is absolutely no scientific merit in it and no statistical merit in it. This is fact."

Energy secretary Ed Davey agreed that there is no evidence climate change has resulted in an increase of tropical storms.

[Stanley]

The confusion arises from the fact that non-scientists confuse man-made climate change and what could be natural global warming. They are connected but aren't the same thing. The clue could be in the fact that meteorologists agreed that the major factor was the exceptionally high surface water temperature in the Pacific Ocean. The majority verdict is that this could be due to man-made climate change but this cannot be proven. Whichever opinion you hold, the incidence of exceptional events is rising. Haiyan was such an event. The US is having an exceptional event at the moment as tornado cells march across the mid-west and are growing. (LINK)

[hartley353]

The reason that many of these weather events are considered to be unusual, is due to the rise in world populations, and the man made structures associated with this growth. When one strikes one of these centres of population, the amount of damage and death is huge. Haiyan is just one of several such events in the last 100 years, but this one occured in the wrong place.