CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

[Tizer]

Cull Minister Owen Paterson once kept two badgers as pets [Daily Telegraph, 27 Aug, 2013]
"The Minister who is masterminding the controversial badger cull kept two of the animals as pets when he was a child."
"Owen Paterson, the Environment Secretary, looked after a pair of orphaned badgers named Bessy and Baz while growing up in the Cheshire countryside. Years later he recalled fondly how a neighbouring farmer had turned up at his parents’ house asking them to take care of Bessy. She quickly became a beloved family pet, living in the family’s boiler room and switching from a nocturnal to a day-time existence. Mr Paterson told Farmers Guardian in 2005: "She even came with us in the car. She was very tough - I used to play rough and tumble games with her and, even today, I can remember the unique smell."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/countr ... -pets.html

`Unique smell' is a gross understatement!

[Bruff]

This article by George Monbiot may be of interest....

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... n-paterson

I guess Monbiot is someone you either take or leave - certainly his views on the management of the countryside are controversial not just among the 'landowners' but also 'countryfolk' for whom tradition and I guess 'common sense' hold sway. But on the dynamics of a 'tea party' movement he makes a decent case in this article.

Richard Broughton

[Stanley]

I'm not a Monbiot fan either Richard. He is always so certain that he is right! Mind you, he makes a good point and I like his definition of Tea Party thinking, "Tea Party politics can be defined as the interests of the ultra-elite cleverly repackaged as the interests of the common people." This syndrome is undoubtedly alive and well in the Tory Party and higher establishment. Piketty covers this in 'Capital in the 21st Century' when he points out that once you become a member of the top 10% club you tend to use money to promote your own interests. See the latest row over Tory funding, why would someone pay £160,000 for a tennis match between Cam and Bozo? It's all about access to the corridors of power. The greatest fear they have is any change in policy that affects their income and the most likely inevitable attack will come from an increase in progressive taxes on wealth which are the only route out of the present situation where the rents of the large capital holders are sucking money out of the bottom 90 percentile. They are smart people and want the ear of those in power.

[Bruff]

That would be the 160K donation that came from the Russian oligarch, in return for a tennis match with Dave and Boris. A fact that our illustrious PM completely over-looked when he waded in to lecture the French etc on Russian sanctions. It's no wonder the rest of Europe shakes their heads (if they don't laugh) when this character wanders into town. Just embarrassing.

[Apologies for that being off topic....]

Richard Broughton

[David Whipp]

Not so far off topic... sanctions could lead to the unintended consequence of gas shortages this winter, leading to a possible reduction in CO2 emissions...

(In Bahnerdo mode, me and Alison renewed talking about the wood burner yesterday; we'll at least be stocking up on winter woolies.)

[Stanley]

Or even solid fuel. Burning smokeless fuel in a good stove is far more efficient than using fossil fuel for producing electricity and you can do almost all your cooking on it.
Richard is definitely not off piste. We don't use a lot of Russian gas but Europe does and any shortage there from possible disruption of supply will be reflected in the pool price for gas in a very inefficient market. This in turn leads to use of other energy sources and Germany has plenty of coal! (And no nuclear now....)

[Tizer]

BBC News, 9 Sept 2014
Greenhouse gas levels rising at fastest rate since 1984
"A surge in atmospheric CO2 saw levels of greenhouse gases reach record levels in 2013, according to new figures. Concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere between 2012 and 2013 grew at their fastest rate since 1984. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) says that it highlights the need for a global climate treaty. But the UK's energy secretary Ed Davey said that any such agreement might not contain legally binding emissions cuts, as has been previously envisaged."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-29115845

[Stanley]

I saw that report as well. When you look at the amount of coal being exported from Oz to China you get a glimpse of part of the problem. CO2 isn't the only problem of course, scientists have been warning us for a while that we are approaching a tipping point in areas like the Siberian tundra where vast quantities of methane are trapped in the permafrost. Then there is sea-floor methane. Could we have already passed the tipping point? Not a good prospect!

[Tizer]

Could we have already passed the tipping point? Not a good prospect!

Relevant to that is the comment in the WMO report: "The bulletin suggests that in 2013, the increase in CO2 was due not only to increased emissions but also to a reduced carbon uptake by the Earth's biosphere"...."`We don't understand if this is temporary or if it is a permanent state, and we are a bit worried about that. It could be that the biosphere is at its limit but we cannot tell that at the moment.'"

I've mentioned before how people get very worked up about the lifetime of radioactive chemicals but don't seem to know or understand the long lifetime of the chemicals that cause the greenhouse effect in the atmosphere. A part of the CO2 we are emitting now will be around for many hundreds of years even if we dramatically lowered emissions today. Some will be around for a thousand years. The report mentions this: "The WMO data indicates that between 1990 and 2013 there was an 34% increase in the warming impact on the climate because carbon dioxide and other gases like methane and nitrous oxide survive for such a long time in the atmosphere." The lifetime of non-CO2 `warming' chemicals is much greater than that of CO2, although the quantities emitted are smaller.

[Stanley]

On a brighter note, see THIS for good news that the ban on CFC aerosol gases in the 1980s seems to be having an effect, the ozone layer is recovering.

[Tizer]

The UN is hosting a big meeting to discuss climate change and it will be attended by 125 heads of state and government. The absence of Chinese, Indian, Australian, Russian and Canadian leaders is noted.

On a more optimistic note, BBC News states: "Heirs to the Rockefeller family, which made its vast fortune from oil, are to sell investments in fossil fuels and reinvest in clean energy, reports say. The Rockefeller Brothers Fund is joining a coalition of philanthropists pledging to rid themselves of more than $50bn (£31bn) in fossil fuel assets. The announcement was made on Monday, a day before the UN climate change summit opens on Tuesday. Some 650 individuals and 180 institutions have joined the coalition. It is part of a growing global initiative called Global Divest-Invest, which began on university campuses several years ago, the New York Times reports. Pledges from pension funds, religious groups and big universities have reportedly doubled since the start of 2014."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-29310475

[Stanley]

Good REPORT in the Guardian. We need to see the rhetoric move forward into action......

[Tizer]

At least China's vice-premier has turned up even if the president didn't come to the meeting. The BBC News says that he: `...told the summit that by 2020, China would aim to reduce its emissions of carbon per unit of GDP by 45%, compared with levels in 2005. He said China wanted to have emissions peak "as early as possible". "As a responsible major country, a major developing country, China will make even greater effort to address climate change," Mr Zhang said. "All countries need to follow the path of green and low carbon development that suits their national conditions, [and] set forth post-2020 actions in light of actual circumstances." Correspondents say it is the first time China has said it is willing to take firm action to cut carbon emissions.'

[Stanley]

At the very least it's a positive response. Now for the action.... The history of emission reduction promises is always missed targets.

[Tizer]

Here at last, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Synthesis Report, as reported on the BBC web site:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-29855884

Even more interesting was a report on the radio by Roger Harrabin, the BBC's Environment Analyst, describing how the `climate sceptics' are now falling in line with the IPCC's warnings. They now agree that the climate is warming globally, that it's due to CO2, and that the CO2 is primarily derived from human activity. But furthermore, the figures they give for likely warming now fall within the range predicted by the IPCC. Harrabin had this confirmed by speaking to the leading technical sceptic, who has had his research published in scientific journals. The only difference now is that the `sceptics' have predict a temperature range shifted a bit lower than that of the IPCC. It doesn't make much difference - they agree that something has to be done - urgently.

[PanBiker]

I picked up on that as well Tiz, lets hope everyone finally singing from the same sheet will make a difference.

[Stanley]

There couldn't be a clearer warning that the signals are at red. Regardless of scepticism, the only sensible thing to do is work on worst case as there are other benefits to reduction of all forms of atmospheric pollution and heat pollution than simply in terms of the climate. History teaches that concerted activity will only start when we actually get to the point of no return and then it will be too late. That's right, I am not an optimist in this matter.

[Stanley]

See Bob's Bits today for a pertinent piece.....

[Tizer]

BBC web site:
`Unusual number of UK flowers bloom'
"Botanists have been stunned by the results of their annual hunt for plants in flower on New Year’s Day. They say according to textbooks there should be between 20 and 30 species in flower. This year there were 368 in bloom. It raises further questions about the effects of climate change during the UK’s warmest year on record. “This is extraordinary,” said Tim Rich, who started the New Year’s plant hunt for the Botanical Society of Britain and Ireland."

[Stanley]

I was with you listening to that report Tiz..... He admitted that perhaps the data gathering was more thorough but this couldn't account for some of the species which were months early.

[Stanley]

See THIS for the latest estimates of the rate of sea level rise. Yet more evidence that the speed of change in our climate might be faster than we thought. The deniers will be triggered yet again.....

[Stanley]

See THIS for a BBC account of the NA|SA announcement yesterday that 2014 was the hottest year globally on record.

[Tizer]

It's worth quoting from the news report:
----------------------------
Responding to the reports' findings, Bob Ward, policy and communications director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change at the London School of Economics, said: "The new global temperature record announced today completely exposes the myth that global warming has stopped. "There is mounting evidence all around the world that the Earth is warming and the climate is changing in response to rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere." A small but vocal number of people maintain that the observed temperature anomalies are not the result of greenhouse gas emissions from human activities warming the planet. It is also a view that is held by a number of politicians, making them reluctant to introduce regulations or legislation aimed at cutting emissions.
----------------------------

The last point, about politicians, is important. As the serious `climate deniers' are now shifting to a position where they pretty much agree with the climate scientists it leaves the politicians standing out as a group that still seems unable (or unwilling) to grasp the situation. This is worrying for the rest of us - how can we make any progress in combating climate change if many of our leaders still refuse to accept the evidence?

And the evidence looks like this...

[chinatyke]

Without a doubt this is the warmest winter I've experienced here and it is my 11th one. If it is down to global warming I say let's have more of it. But it is much more than 0.7C so I guess it is just a normal fluctuation in weather patterns.
Is 0.8C increase over the last 134 years significant? I assume the Eco-systems will cope with a change so small. Time will tell.

[Stanley]

Temperature, ie. global warming, is only one factor in climate change. Add extreme weather event frequency, rising sea levels and observed changes in the eco-system like the death of corals and ocean acidification and it begins to build into a lager body of evidence.