POLITICS CORNER

[Stanley]

Lovely post Richard. And of course, all quite feasible! What it demonstrates clearly is the possible effect of the Law of Unintended Consequences. Too many major changes are being regarded as polls or super focus groups, not the best way to decide policy.
I got my full coloured copy of 'Pendle Matters' yesterday, the organ of the Pendle Tories. [This report was produced at no cost to the taxpayer]. I quote:
'Andrew Stephenson MP said "The latest fall in unemployment on Pendle shows the Conservative long term economic plan is helping get people back to work. Across the UK there are now 1.8 million more people in work than at the last election. There is still a lot more to do to help people back into work, but this is great news for families across Pendle."'
On the face of it, perfectly true but how many of these 'jobs' pay a living wage with proper provision for holidays and overtime? How many are part time. How many are on minimum wage? How many are zero hours contracts? How many are low paid apprenticeships? On top of this, wages are almost static while inflation still exceeds any minor raises in pay, the net wage is still declining. Add in the factor that the major elements of expenditure for a small wage earner have a far higher inflation rate than the official figure and you begin to get the scale of wage erosion in society. It is basically dishonest to give this good news message without spelling out the downside. Remember that there are more cuts to come, factor in the certain interest rate rise and note the imbalance in a recovery based on ever increasing levels of personal debt. Not quite as rosy as Stephenson's picture of the situation.

[Tizer]

BBC, 15.00hrs, Aug 2014
Iraq: US air strike on Islamic State militants in Iraq
The US says it has launched an air strike against militants from the Islamic State (IS) group in Iraq. The Pentagon said American aircraft attacked artillery that was being used against Kurdish forces defending the northern city of Irbil.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-28709530

[Thomo]

And here in the UK, a Nun has had the courage to tear down an IS flag in London. Elsewhere the US have launched air strikes in Iraq and commenced their aid mission for the non Islamics who are in danger on a mountain. Hamas didn't want an extension to the truce and have re commenced their offensive against Israel, here and on the Continent anti semitism is on the increase. There are a great number of mainly Africans asylum seekers in the Calais area of France, and the French want us to provide a ship to bring them here. We already have enough unproductives in this country, we do not need any more. If people of a different mainstream faith wish to live happily here, they need to pull together with this country and give up their bad apples. This is our country, and most of us prefer it as it is.

[Stanley]

"We already have enough unproductives in this country, we do not need any more."
To whom are you referring? What evidence do you have for this statement?

[Thomo]

Maybe the term "unemployable" would have been more appropriate, that is unemployable as opposed to unemployed. In both groups there are those unfortunate people who cannot be employed due to their physical or mental disabilities. This still leaves they who will go to great lengths to exist with the minimum amount of effort. As for evidence, a visit to the channel ports, and in particular the French ones can be most revealing, especially at night. The main tourist sites in Italy and Portugal are another good example. Many of these come from places where the women are expected to do all of the work and at the same time bring up an over large family. Its not that the males are not capable of work, more that they will not if it can be avoided.

[Stanley]

All the hard evidence points to the fact that the percentage of 'benefit scroungers' per head of the working population is lower in immigrant groups than the home-grown variety. In addition, the amount paid in NI and tax by immigrants is far higher than the cost in benefits. The slaughter house at Gisburn is foreign-owned and employs many Poles who live in Barlick. Noticeable how they are off down the road to work while the rest of Barlick sleeps. In addition I remember the history of Poland, how badly they have been treated and what good friends they were to us when we needed them in WW2. The same can be said of many of the Asians. Both the surgeons who have operated on my eyes are of Asian extraction but quite possibly born in Britain. We do not live in the 19th century Empire Britain, we live on a global economy and should wake up and smell the coffee. Oh, and by the way, if the family history is to be believed I have an Australian Aborigine in my blood line so I'm biased about ethnicity....

[Thomo]

I get the feeling that immigration is being confused with migration here, the former being the arrival of people with a right to come here, either legal, political or geographical. the latter being they who do not have these rights. It is this group that is causing the French a great deal of concern and should not be brought here to ease someone else's problem. The Poles and many other Eastern European people are usually hard working and often skilful, as for the ones who work at Gisburn they could have more respect for traffic regulations, the road through this town is not an expressway. Anyone who does not understand this comment is most welcome to come and see/hear first hand. It has been said that emigration to Europe balances immigration from there, to an extent this is true yet how many indigenous Brits choose to move to the Asian sub continent, not many I suspect, no danger here of any kind of balance.

[Stanley]

See THIS for a good overview of the present political situation in Iraq. Only thing is that it's all well and good well dressed men congratulating each other in Baghdad but the truth is the administration is in ruins, Maliki is threatening to unleash civil unrest, the army has proved to be worse than useless, abandoning all the expensive goodies left by the US troops to the mercies of the insurgents. It would be hard to imagine a worse situation and most of the comment is devoted to blaming Maliki.
In 2003 I said that the incursion was a mistake. later I forecast civil war and the break up of Iraq into the old kingdoms we amalgamated in the inter-war years. The biggest foreign policy mistake of the 20th century was made worse by disbanding the Iraqi army and police. Bush's declaration of the spurious war on terror made things worse. Al-Qaeda had no influence under Saddam but as I forecast at the time Iraq became an open invitation to them. Worth remembering that the birth of Osama Bin Laden as a serious insurgent leader and his dreams of the Caliphate were born when the US used him and his forces in the fight against the Russians in Afghanistan and then abandoned him. Read Robert Baer's 'See no Evil' for the story of how this happened.
However, all this has jelled with the much older ambition of reinstating the ultimate Islamic ambition, the Caliphate, the overall leadership of all Islam. Add to this the historic schism between the Sunni and Shia branches of Islam and you have a perfect storm. This has unleashed genocide on a scale not seen since Bosnia and Rwanda and even the brave Kurds are losing ground to the insurgents. If I've missed anything out, please correct me.
Leaving aside the earlier history, the actions of Blair and Bush can be seen now for what they were. The worst kind of using force as an instrument of foreign policy. The marchers against war were right but totally ignored. Any chance of Chilcot getting published?
Things could get much worse, Iran is not going to sit on its thumbs and allow this movement to succeed. I don't see any way out that doesn't involve much more armed involvement. Depressing isn't it....
Meanwhile, I note that David Cameron doesn't think it serious enough to interrupt his holiday.

[Whyperion]

'Unproductives'
Last time I looked, Asylum Seekers cannot undertake paid work in the UK. (They can undertake volunteer duties, and I think, study if their course fees are paid). Of course people whom are in paid work may not necessarily be 'productive' in a wide sense. Quite why France- bigger land area, not a bad place to live and learn, is not suitable to deal with Asylum Seekers IS beyond my megre understanding.

[Bruff]

''how many indigenous Brits choose to move to the Asian sub continent...''

Probably far more than we imagine. 10 million British folk live abroad - 2 million in mainland Europe. That leaves 8 million and they aren't all going to be living in the likes Australia and Canada. My niece packed it all in at her nice Dales school and hopped off to teach for a year in the back of beyond in Kerala, India and at the moment is teaching in Papua New Guinea and has been for a while. The British are some of the biggest migrants/immigrants in the world (we just call them ex-pats, as I say).

Still not sure what an indigenous Brit is to be honest - pop back to the great grandparents and my wife isn't so you can understand my interest.

Richard Broughton

[Stanley]

Richard, you have touched on one of my favourite topics, who are the indigenous Britons/English. I've bumped the article I did on 'Who do you think you are' in which I gave my view on the subject.
Every time I hear or see terms like immigration, indigenous or true Brits my heart sinks into my boots because I know the ignorance/bigotry quotient is going to rise. There aren't many occasions where you can give a definitive historical fact but this is one of them. We are all mongrels, the result of intermixing of the original Celts (who originated in Europe of course) and the various races who have invaded and inter-bred for the last 4,000 years. There is no such thing as a pure bred Englishman, end of story.
Which raises the question of why immigrants are given such a rough ride. If you accept the fact that the vast majority of immigrants are an asset to the country, hard working independent people who contribute in so many ways, you come to the conclusion that it is based solely on 'they take our jobs', 'they are benefit scroungers', both demonstrably false, or it's ethnicity and 'we don't like foreigners'.
Current political thought has a lot to answer for here. The Coalition attack on the social services has been bolstered by outrageously manipulated statistics 'proving' that immigrants are benefits scroungers. The description 'economic migrant' is now a term of abuse. This whole area is one that would benefit from some clarity and truth. The playing field should be levelled. In my book the biggest 'benefit scroungers' are the people who use wealth and influence to avoid paying their full share of UK taxes but as this group includes most of the contributors to political funds, there is no chance of this happening.
The unemployment figures fall again and are held up as proof that the 'economic recovery' is well under way. Funny that the average spending power of the wages earned is falling all the time. Inflation is three times the rate at which wages are rising and there is no prospect of this changing in the foreseeable future. Inequality grows faster and the only comparable movement is the rise in income of the top 10% of the capital holders. Piketty and Stiglitz are right and there will be no improvement until political actions catch up with the reality. We have already created an underclass, we are now reinforcing and strengthening it. This will inevitably cause trouble down the line and who is going to deal with that?
Sorry for being so negative but I have never been so disillusioned with politics as I am today.
08:20. Just heard a depressing interview with the international development secretary, Justine Greening on R4. She was asked direct questions about the impact of Cameron's statement that aid would be given to the people trapped on the mountain in Iraq and she stonewalled every question. It is fairly obvious that all the rhetoric yesterday has been re-assessed after Obama's statement that the situation isn't as bad as was thought and the US wouldn't be setting up any evacuation corridors. All we got from Ms Greening was that the armed forces were very brave and would do anything they could to help the 'international effort'. As there doesn’t seem to be one the prospect is looking bleak for anyone left on the mountain. We await statesman Cameron's next statement with interest. My opinion is that both the UK and the US are looking for a miracle from the Kurds.

[plaques]

On 6 Aug 2014 Bruff wrote. " Rolls Royce announced the transfer of its development work to Toulouse and that the Barnoldswick facility would close with immediate effect.". No doubt written with a bit of tongue in cheek and forecasting doom and gloom in poor old Barlick. Now its my turn to offer up a Cassandra type prophecy . RR have been working on a demo engine using carbon fibre fan blades as a possible advancement to the current titanium blade made at Barlick. Although it may be a long way down the line in replacing titanium completely the writing appears to on the wall. Of course there will always be a need for spare titanium parts but obviously the numbers will gradually diminish. Lets hope that the carbon blades will also be made at Barlick.
Carbon Fan Blade (Link)

[Stanley]

The aircraft engine trade came to Barlick by accident. Nothing lasts for ever and eventually it will go through force of circumstance in a world dominated by global trade and competition. All that can be certain is that the day this happens is getting closer.
We are told that German GDP is falling, France is stagnant and Italy is in recession. Despite all the efforts of the Central Bank, the European project is looking poorly. The BofE warns us that this will further damage UK export performance as the EU is our biggest customer. The debt-fuelled, consumer led 'economic miracle' looks even more unbalanced.
Meanwhile, at home, our MP tells us that there is reason for optimism as he grabs every good news photo opportunity going. I don't know who he thinks he is kidding....
I object to the UN describing Maliki in Iraq as 'statesmanlike' after he bows to the inevitable and steps down. All right, US policy left Iraq with an impossible situation but he made it no better by the mistakes he made when he had power. He presided over the deterioration of the army and political unity based largely on his racism towards the people. Where's the statesmanlike behaviour in this? Question is, is it all too little and too late?

[Tizer]

Lord knows what's going on along the Ukraine-Russia border now. We hear of the Russian convoy of lorries that are said to contain only emergency relief supplies, then reporters say a convoy of Russian armoured vehicles has been seen arriving at the Ukranian border. The Russians say it's fiction, they haven't sent any military vehicles there, but the Ukranian government claims to have been destroying the vehicles! Who to believe?

[Pluggy]

I think I'd be more prone to beleiving the Beeb's reporters than the Russian government....

They checked out the parked 'aid' lorries and found they are are carrying aid.

[Stanley]

They also found that some of them were empty......
I see that our dear leader has wrapped himself in the flag and is advocating 'intervention' against the Islamic State. As usual, he talks in general terms without specifying what action he has in mind. One wonders which is the strongest pressure, electioneering, acting in concert with the US or simply reacting to media pressure.

[Tizer]

They also found that some of them were empty......

Those are for covertly bringing back to Russia the anti-aircraft missiles and other weapons, as well as the `soldiers'.
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Writing about Iraq, last Saturday's copy of The Times gave a list of armaments held by ISIS. It included lots of Humvee vehicles which were left in Iraq by the US military...but it also listed forty T-57 and T-72 Russian tanks. Now I wonder where ISIS got those? The biggest weapon they've got at the moment is the dam which allows them to control water supply (and power if it's a hydro facility too) but most dangerous of all if they dump all the water out and flood that part of Iraq.

[Stanley]

News this morning that the Kurds, helped by US intelligence and air strikes, have retaken the dam near Mosul. Interesting that the Kurdish spokesman let slip that US troops were on the ground. No doubt special forces 'advising' and lighting targets with infra red for the guided bombs. Sounds like the classic start of 'mission creep'.
One thing that strikes me is that the description of the IS forces varies, sometimes they are terrorists and sometimes described as a new political force. Doesn't really matter of course, their methods and effects stay the same.
I see that Alex Salmond has admitted he cocked up in the debate with Darling.
See THIS for news of the 'underclass' that is costing us £30billion annually according to the Coalition. Cameron brings in a new rule that all policies have to pass a 'family friendly' test. All right, there are problem families but does anyone really believe that this is the scale of the problem? Or is this simply part of the Tory effort to roll back the benefit system and save money to boost the economic miracle.
How cynical can you get? The biggest problem many families have is directly related to government policy which is eroding incomes daily, a process which is still going on with no prospect of any improvement. The theory seems to be that the underclass are poor mainly because they are dysfunctional, whatever that is. This is a retreat to the old Poor Law theories about the deserving and non-deserving poor. It is disgraceful.
Inequality grows daily and in the end there will be a price to pay. Cameron should go and study Stiglitz and Piketty and recognise the validity of their arguments. It is inequality that needs addressing through government policy, not so-called 'dysfunctional' families.

[Thomo]

Constant news of the atrocities committed by the IS terrorists beggars belief, and the fact that "British" men are involved is born out by this item:-

Chillin with my homie, or what's left of him," tweeted Abdel-Majed Abdel Bary, a 23-year-old rapper from Maida Vale turned Islamic State (Isis) militant, beside a picture of himself holding the severed head of an enemy combatant.

Add to this a bin liner full of cats heads that has been discovered in Manchester suggests that someone has been practicing.

These sub humans are definitely not freedom fighters, or a new political force, its all about them and their corrupted ideals. As such they do not deserve capture and subsequent possible freedom, they need to be treated as they treat others, this is not a time for "turn the other cheek". Ordinary peaceful members of the Islamic faith are once again going to be at risk, and in some cases it time for them to forget tribal and family loyalties for the good of all.

[Stanley]

See THIS if you are an aficionado of 'It seemed like a good idea at the time' incidents. This one has cost the taxpayer £220million apart from the disruption the failed policy caused. Raytheon sued and won the case.
See THIS for another example of Mr Cameron being creative with his use of statistics. He claimed that the majority of new jobs created under the Coalition had gone to British employees. "Sir Andrew Dilnot, head of the UK Statistics Authority, the independent statistics regulator, said the prime minister was wrong to say figures showed that more than three-quarters of all new jobs went to British citizens when "official statistics do not show the number of new jobs".‟
Cameron was attempting to show in an interview for the Daily Telegraph that the government had reversed a situation in its first few years of office when he claimed most new jobs were taken by migrant workers. The interview was widely interpreted as an attempt to win over Ukip voters who believe most jobs created as Britain's economy recovers are being snapped up by foreigners".
Can anyone believe anything that politicians say when under pressure?

[Stanley]

I listened to 'an expert' on BBC News at 6 last night telling us why, on a day when we learned that rail fares are to rise more than inflation, House prices have risen 10% since 2101 [20% in London] and average wages are rising at a third of the rate of inflation, this was good economic news. He reckoned that the strong Pound was resulting in cheap food imports and this was good for the consumer. The funny thing is that I get the idea he actually believes this!
See THIS for news that the LibDems have drawn a line under the sexual harassment charges against Lord Rennard. Now why should this disturb me?

[Stanley]

Mr Cameron is back off his holidays but has made it clear that there is not going to be any escalation in our military response to the Islamic State. Meanwhile the US seems to have been stung by the IS video and has stepped up air strikes. The video and the beheading of Mr Foley may have seemed like a good idea at the time but in the end could be a big mistake. It has brought the horror of what they are doing closer to home and could prove very costly.
Nearer home, despite assurances from experts that there is no imminent rise in interest rates, the minutes of the BofE meeting were released yesterday and for the first time, two of the members recommended a 0.25% rise. despite wage deflation and relatively steady inflation figures pressure is rising from the markets for a general increase. This is still possible before the end of 2014.

[Stanley]

Islamic State... Mission creep is alive and well. The Foley video seems to have acted as a wake-up call and we now hear noises about 'not extending air strikes to base areas in Syria'. This almost certainly means that it is going to happen. The strange thing about this is that if it was done it would result in some strange bed fellows because Assad in Syria and Iran would not raise any objections...
Don't be surprised when you hear that the strikes have been extended to Syria....
Later. I see in the BET that there are 13 senior officials at County Hall in Preston getting more then £100,000. I'll not bore you with my opinion about that, make up your own minds bearing in mind all the cuts they have been making.

[Stanley]

Cameron surfing in Cornwall to hoots of derision from holiday makers. Theresa May announces ASBOs for tourists and tries to defend against allegations that nothing has been done on inclusion, the policy announced after the Lee murder. Majority opinion seems to be that sanctions to reinforce inclusion will not work, it needs a deeper cultural approach.

[David Whipp]

I see in the BET that there are 13 senior officials at County Hall in Preston getting more then £100,000. I'll not bore you with my opinion about that, make up your own minds bearing in mind all the cuts they have been making.

...and the cuts include the salary of the new chief executive. There's also a wide ranging restructuring being carried out that will change things significantly.

Perhaps equally objectionable (more objectionable?) are salaries in the private sector for jobs which are equally responsible (less responsible?). (Don't get me going about the ratio between highest and lowest paid in public and private sectors... One of the things my group insisted on during negotiations (as well as the restructuring) was the introduction of a policy of the county council paying a living wage.)