POLITICS CORNER

[Stanley]

Only one object of attention today, The Rochester by-election. Odds are on a UKIP success and more 'expert analysis' than you could poke a stick at!

[Stanley]

UKIP did it of course and now for the storm of explanation from rivals and experts. Their basic line will be that by-elections are not a reliable indicator of General Election performance. The bottom line is that they overturned a Tory majority of 10,000 by 3,000 votes on a turnout of 50%. Backbenchers looking at their comfortable jobs from May 2015 onwards will be in the vanguard of protest. Nothing exercises them more.....

[Stanley]

See THIS for Milliband's response to criticism over the Emily Thornberry tweet of the white van and St George flags. Other reports this morning suggest that she wasn't sacked for the tweet but because she refused to make a public apology. Whichever way it happened it demonstrates two things, the danger of posting on social media before putting your brain in gear and the fact that Emily must be totally out of touch with the grass roots.
There is something else about this that occurs to me but I haven't heard it mentioned. A few years ago I said that the use of the St George flag by the BNP and other far right factions was polluting the image of the flag. Could it be possible that in some people's minds a combination of white van and red cross triggers off a suspicion that the owner is perhaps a yob who supports an ultra-nationalist party? Or is this just in my mind....
Loved Dennis Skinner's interjection yesterday when he vilified the two UKIP members and said they were the people who advocate deporting people like the Malaysian and Syrian surgeons who saved his life in his recent heart operation.
I've been thinking about Rochester and everyone seems to be interpreting it in terms of the rise of UKIP. Is there any chance that an equal factor, if not greater, is the decline of the other three parties? Would there be the same room for UKIP if we had proper, effective Opposition? Someone in the Labour Party ought to be thinking about the basic campaigning issue in the May Election. There are some very dark clouds looming on the economic horizon and I believe this is going to be the deciding factor. Labour should stop dodging about from one subject to the other and take a bet on economics, direct all electioneering at what Bill Clinton said, "It's the economy stupid!" Plenty of scope there and good solid evidence. Question is, is anyone clearly focussed on the fight? Has anyone got enough clout to re-direct the party's combined efforts?

[Tizer]

I'm lost over all the fuss about Thornberry and the Rochester photo, and can't understand it. It's not a storm in a teacup but a storm in the Twittersphere. House - flags - white van - Rochester...so what? I think all she captioned it with was something like "Image of Rochester". Are we all going to get into trouble now for posting a simple photo? It's all in the eye of the beholder and the distortion of the media lens.

[PanBiker]

They reported on Radio Two news yesterday that the Thornberrry affair broke on page 6 of the Telegraph and way back on page 9 of the Times. If no one had commented it would have simply been forgotten in a couple of days. I think there is a culture of seeking out sensationalism in every avenue of public life or deed done. Just bloody well get on with it! Makes my blood boil.

[Stanley]

There is also the possibility that the dirty tricks brigade will take any opportunity to damage opposing parties in the election battle for May.

[Thomo]

I imagine that the flags that caused the fuss had more to do with football than any political agenda, even so, if I expected Mr. Moribund to drive past here I would replace my Union Flag with the St George version. Just who was supposed to be so badly offended?

[Tizer]

The dirty tricks brigade is redundant these days, the political parties are now quite capable of undermining themselves, thank you! Just the same as we don't need terrorists because the banks, financial industry, insurance companies and utilities are quite capable of causing havoc in the UK without any help from outside.

[Stanley]

Unfortunately that's quite true. One person killed in a terrorist attack sparks universal outrage. How many people have been killed by the effects of the 2008 credit meltdown? It's a hidden number because nobody sees any point doing the necessary cost/benefit research which could give us an idea. Apply the same principle to austerity/ inequality....

[Bruff]

‘’Just how does what India spends on UK university education stack up against what we send them in aid?’’

[Reply posted here, as more appropriate really]

The UK gives India around £200M a year in aid, which you’ll be glad to know, ends next year (2015). It’s been this much for a while, and as India (also for a while) has not sought aid from anywhere this reflects either obligations signed in law in effect (and for now we generally abide by such obligations, though recently there are worrying signs the Government adopts a pick and choose approach to its obligations), or on analysis there’s a greater benefit in time from this spend set against the immediate cost.

On Indian students here, the first-year enrolment numbers are about 12.5K (though this is down from a high of 25K 2 or 3 years ago). On fees, Universities can charge overseas students what they like and they do charge a heck of a lot and the students are happy to pay (you might call this a ‘subsidy’ to UK students), and so a typical figure for this is hard to come-by. But let’s assume they charge only £1K more than the current £9K (generally) they charge UK students – likely a big underestimate, but a useful £10K and so a rough figure of £125M. This is just fees, they will of course spend money in the local economy, supporting jobs. It’s very hard to unpick what Indian students alone spend but to give you an idea, some analysis has shown that foreign students as a block contribute about £7B annually to the UK’s economy (£130M to Sheffield’s GDP alone, net) – currently, about 1 in 14 non-EU foreign students are Indian and so pro-rata this would be several hundred million. Plus whatever value you might put on the ‘soft power’ I mentioned further down the line – you know, those intangibles like the traction you might get in future trade negotiations.

On balance, I reckon Indian students probably contribute a heck of a lot more to our economy that we give their country in aid, and the latter’s ending anyway. Whether this is seen as a good thing or not is down to the individual of course. These students can go elsewhere and increasingly are as our major competitors for this market actively look to increase numbers.

Richard Broughton

[Tizer]

Thanks for that detailed analysis Richard. I've had plenty of contact with Indian scientists in the past, both ones working here in the UK and those in Indian universities and companies. They've always had great respect for UK education and training and have welcomed any opportunity to work with UK scientists, either here or as international collaborations whilst in their own country.

It's interesting how science and scientists cross national boundaries, linking up countries that are politically far apart. A good example of this is the Svalbard Global Seed Vault project, Spitzbergen, Norway, which has over 700,000 crop seed samples provided by countries all over the world. I think they now claim to have the seeds of the commercial crops of every country, including places like North Korea.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svalbard_Global_Seed_Vault

[Stanley]

Thanks for that Richard, typically detailed and thoughtful analysis. These things are always complicated aren't they. Just goes to demonstrate that knee jerk reactions to isolated figures can be so misleading.
Tiz, I saw a TV report on the Svalbard facility not long ago and they pointed out the North Korean examples.

[Bruff]

My concern is that if you quite properly want to clamp down on for example rogue colleges that are little more than a route in for many, your choice of intervention and the language you use should not have the perverse consequence of putting off the wholly legitimate who make a really significant contribution. Of course, I’m not so naïve I don’t recognise that so far as some folk are concerned there’s far too many bloody foreigners (or words to that effect) clogging up our colleges and everywhere else (and by foreigners, I mean those who ‘look’ foreign, if you get my drift). Getting shut of them and potentially damaging enormously a vital sector is the very least of their concerns. However, I would like to think that serious minded folk would be a little more aware of the consequences of language and actions. But as we hurl ourselves headlong into our race to the bottom, this becomes more and more unlikely.

On this flag business, we don’t have much of a tradition of flying the flag. I know we do on public buildings and some individuals do. But it’s not like the US or indeed Switzerland where my in-laws had the flag proudly flying outside when they lived there. In some sense, I’m quite grateful as there’s a good chance that the Union flag would be upside down and a cue for irate letters from retired Colonels to the local rag. I jest, but only in part. If you are going to fly the flag at least respect it, make sure it is clean, hung correctly and displayed with a certain care. Sticking a cross of St George up in your window rather reminds me of the tendency in many parts of Europe to ‘air’ your bedroom linen by hanging it from the widows and railings of the tenement block. Very practical, but not best done with a flag.

Ms Thornberry could have saved herself a lot of trouble if she’d made this point. Instead she made no comment at all so folk could read into it anything they wished. In that sense it was quite generous of her, if ultimately to her detriment in these fevered times.

Richard Broughton

[Stanley]

You reminded me of Gerard Hoffnung's advice to visitors. "Be sure to hang your mattress out of the window every morning on rising".
Fascinated and horrified in equal proportion by David Mellor's view of his own importance. I suspect this is more widespread than we think. Total disconnect from the real world.... Remember Andrew Mitchell? It's the same syndrome we see in large businesses who avoid contact with real people as a matter of course. On that subject I'd like it to be mandatory for companies to give clear addresses and telephone numbers for contact when they do any publicity.

[Stanley]

See THIS for a BBC report on the progress of the talks about devolution of powers to Scotland. I am in favour of Scottish independence and wish them well with this latest stage but what strikes me is the enormity of the task. Unpicking almost 400 years of administration.... No wonder I heard one civil servant saying that this took care of his workload until retirement!
There's another thing as well, like it or not this transference of powers means that eventual independence is inevitable, it has just been postponed. The Scots aren't going to stop here.
Then there is the effect in England. We are seeing more and more moves to get powers transferred from Westminster to regions, cities and even local authorities. This will take longer but I think is now inevitable. The tectonic plates are definitely shifting and the rate of change is accelerating.
John Paul Junker attacks tax avoidance in the EU. Bit rich really, in 2003 he was advocating the Belgian tax rules that first made it all possible. On austerity, he has officially ended it as a tool for economic recovery. He has gone Keynesian and is setting up a wealth fund to invest in failing economies instead of forcing them further into debt. In this respect he is dead in line with modern economic thinking. I wonder if Wee Georgie is taking notice.... We shall shortly have his Autumn Statement and it is not going to be pretty.

[Stanley]

See THIS for a full report of the case Andrew Mitchell lost yesterday. I wasn't there when it happened and there is no doubt that mistakes were made in the media frenzy afterwards including the reform of the Police Federation who were definitely out of order. However, all my instincts pointed towards believing the contemporaneous notes kept at the time by one of the officers were accurate. The Commissioner took this line and supported his officers and this verdict vindicates him as well. Mitchell's reported behaviour was typical of the streak of arrogance we see fleeting evidence of all the time. The Mellor/taxi cab driver was another example earlier this week. This excessive self-belief, the opposite of humility, is the same syndrome that drives the behaviour we see in the financial world and large corporations and indicates that the people involved have completely lost any concepts of service to the people who made their position in society possible.
This rot in our institutions is perhaps the most dangerous and damaging factor in modern society. It allows the justification of policies like austerity and the 'management' of the labour force to get the maximum return for the least investment. Thank God for our justice system which has delivered what I think is the correct result. The sad thing of course is that none of it need have happened if Mitchell had kept his temper and refrained from trying to impose his will over serving officers who were only doing their duty. There is also the fact that a simple, truthful apology admitting a mistake would have avoided all this trouble.
On a different matter, the granting of the East Coast rail franchise to Stagecoach and Virgin reminds me of John Major's rail privatisation just before losing an election. Under government management the service was doing well and running economically. Why not keep it there? (LINK)

[Stanley]

Wee Georgie will be working hard on his Autumn Statement due on Thursday. He will be scouring the cupboard for good news items to pull out of the hat. I wonder how much time he will give to the 'reduction of the structural deficit'.... The consensus is even more cuts to come.... Deep Joy!

[Stanley]

I was wrong, the AS is on Wednesday not Thursday.
I can remember a time when budget details were secret until the speech but the AS is being debated as though it had already been made. I listened to Grant Shapps on 'The Week in Westminster' last night and he was in full protect Georgie and the Party mode. To the extent he was saying things like reports that many of the new jobs being created were badly paid, part time or zero hours contracts was a lie! He ignored a question about the fact that we are in the middle of the longest period of average wage reduction since the 1870s. Refused to discuss the tax cuts for higher earners and the fact that every economist of any note says that increased taxes and more spending cuts will be needed whoever is in charge for at least another five years. In short, what he described was not reality! How can there be any effective debate when tripe like this is spewed out like vomit and the majority of the electors are politically and economically illiterate?
The desperate search for good news goes on, the old £15billion road programme is trotted out again as good news. The Old Lie about 'trickle down' is still being cited despite being comprehensively rejected by all serious economists and our own experience. Not a word about food banks, the rising levels of credits and benefits having to be paid out to subsidise employers who thrive on a low wage economy and the rise of debt both in the government and the private sector. Have I got it wrong? Or is this the worst kind of cynical political manipulation to retain office?
One commentator hit the nail on the head last night when he said that if the structural problems weren't addressed and the truth told, the public perception of politicians will fall even further after the next government comes in and has to screw austerity down even further.

[Tripps]

I don't think he need bother making the speech. The whole thing has already been gradually leaked.

While I'm feeling grumpy - why is a statement made on December 3rd not called a Winter Statement? I expect it's due to global warming, causing the seasons to change. I'm also uneasy about the term "Black Friday". How did that get past the thought police? Surely 'Friday of color' would be more appropriate?

[Tizer]

Another worry is the crisis in Russia with the rapid fall in oil price undermining the currency. It might look good in terms of giving Putin a slap but that's just a Western perspective - the Russian people already believe the West is trying to destroy them, and the collapse of their economy will cause much more unrest and demands for Putin to do something. He's already sailed warships through the English Channel recently and he won't like our tanks currently doing manoeuvres with the Polish army near his border.

[PanBiker]

While I'm feeling grumpy - why is a statement made on December 3rd not called a Winter Statement? I expect it's due to global warming, causing the seasons to change.

Winter solstice is on 21st December Tripps so Autumn statement is correct. It's only some in the media that like to muck things around and change when the seasons start regardless of weather patterns. Personally I'll stick with our transit round our star as the defining changeover.

Which reminds me, I won't be available to switch the seasons topic on the site on the 21st. I will be escorting my daughter down the aisle so to speak. I'm sure it can be left to one of the other admins or moderators.

[Tripps]

I'm sure you're right Ian, but for me December is in Winter. In support - a quote from wikipedia.

"Winter is often defined by meteorologists to be the three calendar months with the lowest average temperatures. This corresponds to the months of December, January and February in the Northern Hemisphere, and June, July and August in the Southern Hemisphere."

[Pluggy]

I often think that the seasons fit the month beginnings much better than the solstaces and the equinoxes. Temperatures lag behind day lengths but not to 6 or 7 weeks. The coldest part of winter is usually around the second week in January and the warmest part of summer around the second week in July which isn't long after the start of Winter and Summer going by the soltaces. I'd classify all of December as winter, not the last 10 days. Summer is long gone by the September equinox.

However, going by the soltaces and equinoxes is a long way a head of the semi random seasons we had at one time on here. Winter wasn't popular so it frequently got skipped over.....

I think one of us will change the season over in your absense Ian, it might not be on the stroke of midnight though......

[PanBiker]

11:03 PM GMT on the 21st then...

[Stanley]

I don't care what the topic is called, everyone knows it's today's weather!