POLITICS CORNER

[Bruff]

I suppose they took one look at the Human Rights issue and realised it was horrendously more complicated than sorting out religious loudmouths and folk with pet cats. As others have noted, it is for example firmly embedded within the Good Friday Agreement, a UN-sanctioned International Treaty between sovereign states and so best of luck unpicking that. It is also embedded within the Scottish and Welsh devolution settlements, and given the Scots would never consent you wouldn’t have a ‘British’ replacement.

Call me old fashioned but I quite like having ‘human’ rights. It’s a mark of our commonality given that my human rights are the same as those of a Frenchman or an American or a Senegalese. ‘British’ or ‘English’ rights are what exactly? Presumably those deemed so at any given time and so as such, deemed at another time not actually a ‘right’. I’d rather not have that, thank you. Human rights are universal. They are not the whim of the latest passing third-rater to gain office.

A quick point, I imagine most folk know this but the European Court of Human Rights is absolutely nothing at all to do with the European Commission or any of its institutions. Anyone who bangs on about the EU and the Court as though they were linked has not the first clue.

On the referendum, I’m more exercised about the franchise being extended to the 16 and 17 year olds. Unlike a general election where matters can be unpicked in 5 years if necessary this referndum will settle matters for many years. And an exit is of enormous consequence for the young and their opportunities. I once worked with a chap whose lad was a Renault mechanic. He decided one day in his early 20s to go to work in France, where he simply pitched up with no fuss at all in Nimes speaking the common langauge of the car engine. In a year he was fluent in French, had found a girlfriend and is now happily married and settled there with a couple of kids. Huge numbers of folk do this, and I quite like that. I am also puzzled by allowing EU citizens from Malta and Ireland and Cyprus to vote but not all the others.

Though nervous, I do think that the vote will be to remain in the EU and it will be a very firm ‘yes’. We have though decided that should the vote be ‘no’ we will leave and move to Europe as soon as possible with a view to gaining citizenship of wherever we pitch up during the 2 years or so it would take to extracate the UK (or what will remain of it) from the EU and its institutions. There would seem very little point, for us at least, to remain here.

Richard Broughton

[Tripps]

" There would seem very little point, for us at least, to remain here."

That's a bit drastic Richard, - are you serious? Tell us more.

I hear this morning that the question "Do you wish to remain in the EU?" was phrased thus, to account for those who did not realise we were actually in the EU, and those who had never heard of it, which combined, was quite a significant percentage.

PS - should the quote mark go after the question mark or before it,
and should I get out more?

[Bruff]

Oh yes, very serious. Not because we rely on membership for employment or anything like that. It’s just that I (we) are not sure things would be that good for the UK, or more likely what’s left of it, if we do leave the EU. There seems to be some sort of faith position that things would be pretty much as they are because of who we are, and that we would suddenly free ourselves and thrive, or that we could have all that some see as the benefits of EU membership with absolutely none of the obligations. That is as dangerous an assumption as it’s naïve in my book and I (we) really would rather not run the risk. The one constraint on moving is how other EU countries would accomodate UK citizens post-exit. I hope there are transitional arrangements during the 2 years or so opinion seems to suggest it would take to extracate ourselves from the EU, so that we might be able to get settled and remain.

As I say I do think the vote will be very strongly for remaining, but it’ll be quite an interesting campaign.

I can well imagine a sizeable number of folk didn’t know we were in the EU. We British (English really) are a notoriously politically unaware and disengaged bunch on politics generally. I think I have mentioned on here before that most French parents encourage their kids to go on demonstrations as a part of their political education and being an active citizen. Think about how often you see pictures of young folk across the rest of Europe out on the streets. Here, we’d rather spend our time finding ever more stringent ways of stopping any protest at all. Last year in Rouen in France on a Tuesday evening in September we found ourselves caught up in a big protest, with hundreds and hundreds of youngsters kicking up a right fuss and bringing the city to a halt. We asked a barman why they were protesting about, and he shrugged and said ‘they’re French’.

Maybe that’s another reason why I’d like to get away.

Richard Broughton

[Stanley]

I agree with you Richard on the probable result of a referendum on the EU. I'm too old to think about moving, I'm like an old barnacle anchored to my rock.... (Dis someone once tell me that once a barnacle was anchored its brain atrophies.....?)
Two of my three daughters voted with their feet and are in Oz. It was good for them both and they are doing well.
I agree entirely with your views on the rights of humans. Worth remembering that the initiative for the embedding of Human Rights in law was our commo9n experience in WW2, a very powerful incentive and the right decision. Worth remembering also that Churchill was envisaging a United States of Europe with us as full partners. As it turned out he had the right idea, get the federal system in place before messing about with the other matters such as currency. That was the enormous mistake that was made....
I agree also about our insular view. I was educated in the days of Empire and Britain ruling not only the waves but the world. When I went into Europe for my national service, and since on visits there, I have been struck by the quality of the built environment, the way they generally look after their heritage and the high quality of what they saved. Nuremberg and Rothenburg am der Taube stand out particularly. In Rothenburg the war memorial has the names of all the civilians who died in the war as well.... a nice touch.
So yes, I can understand the decision to move if circumstances change and admire your principles.

[Stanley]

It's quiet out there Jim..... However, news leaks out that Cameron has faced his first major opposition inside the Cabinet over the proposed ditching of the Human Rights legislation and the substitution of an English Bill of Rights (which would of course be tailored to suit our establishment....).
Meanwhile in other [parts of the forest there is a deathly hush over the EU about the Greek Question.... Are we nearing the end game? And in Iraq and Syria IS continues to exercise minds. We are told this morning by General Patreus that we must give the Iraqi Army more support and better leadership. Pity this wasn't thought of when the US decided unilaterally to disband the army and police when they 'won' control.... Sounds suspicious;y like Mission Creep to me....

[Stanley]

We are informed this morning that all the principals are gathered in Berlin today to have 'intensive discussions' about the Greek crisis. This is news speak for 'we are in the end game'.
Cameron gets into trouble with his Cabinet because he is refusing to allow Child Credits to be raided in the search for the £12billion savings this year because he made a manifesto promise not to do it. IDS is said to be puzzled about where he can get the savings if his hands are tied. Very easy to make promises before an election particularly if you don't believe that you are going to get a majority. If it was another coalition these promises could legitimately dropped in the horse trading and I get the feeling that Cameron was gambling that this would be the case. Now he either sticks to the promises or breaks them. This is bad news......

[Stanley]

First we had Theresa May telling the chief constables to stop whingeing and cut their coats to suit their cloth. Yesterday we had Jeremy Hunt telling the NHS that the days of asking for more money is over and they must make savings.... This could be the shape of things to come. At the beginning of WW2 we had 6 months of 'phoney war' during which we waited to see just how bad things were going to be.... I feel as though we are going through a period of phoney government at the moment. The view we are supposed to see is one of the blue collar Tories being nice but every now and then we see a shark's fin appear above the water....

[Tripps]

I watched PMQ's today. We were told it would be different - new camera angles etc. I didn't notice much difference - may be not so rowdy - but they haven't got into their swing yet. Two of the MP's who spoke seemed to be called Cat and Flick - very 21st century.

Margaret Hodge was very disrespectful - she was not the usual centre of attention, thus had no interest, and had an animated conversation with someone in the row behind her, and payed not the slightest regard to the proceedings.

The best question was from a new Labour MP - when will the UK get its 'AAA' credit rating back? Much hilarity regarding the question, but answer came there none. No change there then.

I noticed that William Hague couldn't stay away despite no longer being a member - I spotted him over David Cameron's shoulder in his usual seat, but he had to wear a blond wig, and a dress to get in.

[Stanley]

I think W Hague Esq made a smart move when he took the Chiltern Hundreds.... As you say David the Opposition haven't got into their stride yet and when they do I fear the Tories are going to have a rough time. Leaving aside the hyperbole about the success of their policies, the fact is that the 'economic miracle' is unbalanced, based solely on increasing levels of debt and is incredibly fragile (the fluctuations in oil price showed just how vulnerable we are to external influences). In addition it relies on rigorous austerity which has been cited as one of the reasons for slow growth in GDP and productivity by many serious economists and even the IMF. Even worse, they are set on a course to impose as many cuts in the next five years as they have since 2010 and even more significantly, on the same targets, public services and social welfare. Add to this that they only have a Parliamentary majority of 12. This is worse than John Major and he failed and let Labour in for thirteen years. (Norman Tebbitt predicted that outcome at the time....) Add to all this the global uncertainties, particularly in the EU where there is evidence of growing opposition to blind acceptance of austerity at a time when investment funds are so cheap and it seems to me that you have a recipe for disaster politically. There is a further dimension, in common with the period after WW1 policies are being driven not by logic but by party dogma, it didn't work then and it's hard to see how it can succeed now. I am certain that there are Tory backbenchers who have enough common sense to have made these connections.
As I said yesterday, we are in a period of phoney politics at the moment during which the government is honing it's policies and at remains to be seen what the July budget will reveal when theoretically they will have to reveal where the £12billion of annual cuts is going to fall. So many sources of revenue have been ring-fenced by the manifesto that it seems as though it can only come from public services and welfare. At best it will be a fudge, worst case is that it will rival the cuts of the early 1930s.
Meanwhile, the EU v. Greece confrontation descends into farce. An enormous repayment is due tomorrow to the IMF and another in a fortnight. Greece is bankrupt and can't pay. The present strategy is for the EU and the IMF to force Greece into further austerity cuts when they have already got down to the bone and crippled the Greek economy. There is a possibility of a further fudge, roll tomorrow's debt in with the next one and give another fortnight for even more 'intensive talks'. This strategy is wearing thin, the only way that Greece can be saved is to forgive the present debts and encourage re-investment but this can't happen because it will open the floodgates to the other economies that are in the same bind. Add to this the political repercussions inside the 'healthy' EU economy and you have a very similar one to that which is facing the Tories.
We have failed to regulate the banks or reduce reliance on global debt. The forces that led to 2008 are still alive and well and it is only a matter of time before we have a repetition. Have we learned nothing?
Read THIS for a significant straw in the wind. £1billion of cuts in social care suspected. Clever stuff because this as actually an NHS cut as extra weight will be thrown on their services in addition to what they carry now. 'Safe in Our hands'?
Later.... Have a look at THIS for yet another piece of bad news. More police cuts on the way but the Home Office admit that they are doing it blind because they have no detailed knowledge of what the effect will be.

[Stanley]

Well, I think you all got the picture yesterday as George Osborne announced the first trickle of cuts, far worse is to come! I was struck by the similarity of his language to that used in the late 1920s when there was an identical push for 'sound money'. A version of Mrs Thatcher's shopping basket was used, Montague Norman, Governor of the Bank of England (from 1920 to 1944) gave the example of it being impossible to take more umbrellas out of a cloakroom than you put in. (Montague Norman is well worth looking at, a very strange man!" LINK)
Then as now the policy was an abject failure and the cuts built up tremendous problems further down the line besides impacting heaviest on the poor. Expect exactly the same now. Keynesian economists must be banging their heads on the wall this morning..... I share their grief.....

[Stanley]

Nigel Farage is being very clever.... (LINK) If you are anti-EU his arguments are very persuasive. In particular I think he is right about the Tory 'antis'. In the final choice they will tend to follow what they think is the Party Line. I'm against leaving the EU but I have to admit that Farage is being very smart and persuasive.
Isn't it strange that THIS has just surfaced in the last 24 hours.... The Navy acting as a news agency? Is someone manipulating the news? If so, directed at whom? The referendum or the EU? I smell a rat!

[Stanley]

If nothing else Cameron takes the prize for brass neck! He lectures the summit in Bavaria about the need for concerted action against threats and says that the UK is fully committed. (This amounts to sending another handful of 'advisers' to help against IS.} See THIS for a Guardian report. Meanwhile, back at home his chancellor announces further cuts in an already cash-strapped defence budget. Does he think nobody has noticed? On another matter Cameron argues that the rash of corruption in the world's financial systems must be attacked as in the FIFA affair. Fine, but at the same time the UK is a conduit for much of the shady money laundering and tax avoidance he complains about. Many of these transactions are made through the anonymous PLP 'Brass Plate' companies which we allow to flourish......
The other thing that grabbed me was that 'for security reasons' one of the most expensive locations in the world is chosen for the summit.... Whatever happens they will be comfortable and insulated from the real world while they make their decisions....
As I suspected the 'kick it down the road for a fortnight' ploy was deployed for last Friday's 'deadline' for the Greek IMF repayment. The Troika and Greece are rapidly running out of options and it's still not clear who is going to blink first. The next thing we will hear could be that the focus for the talks has shifted from debt repayment to managing a possible Greek exit... That should buy them more time.

[Stanley]

Mr Cameron appears to have put his foot firmly in his mouth again. He says that when we heard him say that any Cabinet Minister who opposed a yes vote would be sacked we were misunderstanding him. He now says that what he meant was that he expected the Cabinet to support his efforts to modify our relationship with the EU. So that's all right then.... Or is it? As I suspected, the effective opposition to his plans may be coming from behind him. The credit he built up by winning a majority has melted away. What will it be like when the true opposition parties get their act together? At the moment the only voice we are hearing as from the SNP, Labour is paralysed by their leadership election and to tell you the truth I don't know what the LibDem rump is doing or if they are even organised. This is not healthy for Parliament or the country.

[Bruff]

Labour and the Lib Dems would be well-advised to let the PM wallow in the current all-too-predictable ‘Europe’ bother of his own making. Quite why they should step in to offer help and support on the referendum they didn’t want and the PM only offered for his own advantage, I have no idea. Labour and the rest should sit back and watch the fun and games that always comes when ‘Tory’ and ‘Europe’ are popped in a pot a stirred. Make the case for remaining but don’t share a platform with the pro-Tories. Just watch them rip themselves apart, as they always do.

Yesterday offered another notch on the tally count of the PM’s ‘people to blame’ list. Mr Andrew Marr who apparently interrupted so much the PM couldn’t get a word in. Shameless is the word that comes to mind. To be honest, I don’t think an International gathering that includes some of the people with whom you wish to do a deal on your EU membership is the best forum to have your slipperiness once more rammed home in the press conference afterwards. What must our European partners think?

Richard Broughton

[Stanley]

From the reported unguarded remarks reported by the media they think he's a bit of a joke. You can't really blame them.....
I was quite surprised yesterday when the only opposition to the vote confirming the referendum was the SNP. Labour say they have 'changed their mind', they are committing the classic mistake of continuing to fight an election campaign where you don't swim against the flow of what seems to be public opinion. As you say Richard, it gives the impression they are supporting the anti-EU Tories. Surely the correct course was to abstain on the grounds it was a private matter because as you say, Cameron only raised this matter to try to mollify his rebels.

[Stanley]

I was interested to hear an interview with Gerald Kaufman MP yesterday. (Yes! He is still alive and kicking.) He was talking about the fact that he never attended PMQs because it was a charade used solely to score political points over opponents. He contrasted Cameron's attitude with Margaret Thatcher, at least she did answer the questions. I was reminded of this while listening to exchanges in PMQs yesterday. Cameron absolutely refused to answer Harriet Harman's legitimate question about Child Care but used the opportunity to pour scorn an her and Labour. One wonders how this serves transparency in public life....
George Osborne announces more sales of the family silver, the shares in RBS and the last 30% of ownership in the Post Office.
More criticism of the NHS and wasteful spending but not a word about the interest payments on PFI contracts which are crippling so may hospitals.
Meanwhile, far away in Europe the 'Grexit' begins to look more and more likely. I couldn't help comparing this situation to what Keynes said about the Versailles Treaty, that it was a huge mistake to demand payments from an economy that was bankrupt. He was referring to Germany of course and events proved him right. Isn't what is happening to Greece now directly comparable?

[Stanley]

See THIS for a report of the sale of half our remaining stake in the Post Office. This has happened very quickly and the £750million applied to reduction of the National Debt. This is of course a tiny drop in a very large ocean and it makes me wonder if it has been done simply to be able to point to the fact that efforts are being made to reduce the debt. Seems like a gesture to me....
There are signs of pessimism in Germany as the press gives the opinion that the Greek default is inevitable. The latest talks have broken down without any resolution beyond a vague suggestion that there is a possibility that a final decision could be postponed until March next year. The really big question is whether the EU can afford to allow this to happen. Logic says that they have more to lose than the Greeks and public opinion in Greece seems dead against any further austerity which is choking them to death already. In the long run, this is still a major danger to the fragile UK recovery. It would appear that our administration is working on the assumption that it won't happen. For once, I hope they are right!

[Tizer]

Perhaps brinkmanship will be renamed as greekmanship?

[Stanley]

It's a toss up as to who is actually being the brinksman. The Greek position is realistic, they have no chance of repaying the enormous debt so the sensible thing is for the bankers to renounce the debt and finance Greece to make a fresh start possible. The illogical position is to insist on repayment of the debt. Exactly what happened with Germany after Versailles. I see that discussions have started on the consequences of a default and this has triggered an adverse reaction in the stock markets.
Pleas take the trouble to read THIS which is an article by Paul Krugman in the NY Times laying out exactly why he thinks Osborne and the Tories are wrong. He dissects their strategy and demolishes it in a very short piece. Quite brilliant and raises the question are the perpetrators really so inept or is Krugman wrong when he says it is not connected with anti welfare policies? He may be underestimating the toxicity of Old Tory DNA which always tends towards a smaller state. laisser faire in welfare matters and 'interference' in 'normal commercial practice'. Well worth reading.....

[Stanley]

I quite like this WITTY ARTICLE in the Guardian but of course it's rooted in a very serious matter. I would change the slant slightly and question who the hell thought it was a good thing to push Greece to the point where 'Grexit' looked like a viable alternative. They talk about Greece being at fault because they 'lived beyond their means' for years but fail to acknowledge that this was allowed by the Central Bank because it would have been politically unacceptable to rein them in and thus highlight the fatal flaws in the common currency. As Krugman pointed out yesterday, imposing a common currency without budgetary control was madness but it 'seemed like a good idea at the time'. Given the fact that the EU is culpable it may be a good time to start thinking about the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for the countries who are suffering. After all, this was what enabled Germany to pull itself out of the mire after WW2.
None of this is happening and it looks as though economic opinion in the EU is resigned to Greece defaulting. They are having discussions pointing out the horrendous implications for Greece but saying very little about the consequences for the EU project which are possibly far worse. Grexit could break the artificial log jam which has held the Euro together so far and that will have global consequences, not least to the UK. Even the fact that these opinions are about is affecting global markets. Nobody can forecast the full implications or the damage that could ensue. High time for a concerted rethink about debt forgiveness. After all, what money that has been pumped in so far has gone straight to the people who hold those IOUs. This could be the biggest self-inflicted injury ever.

[Tizer]

Meanwhile, Putin will be planning how he can best take advantage of the disruption in Europe. The Greeks want to do a deal with him to buy his gas and have it piped into Greece, which will break the embargo on trade with Russia and widen the gap between Greece and the rest of Europe.

[Stanley]

And if it does all go pear shaped it will be self-inflicted. I am reminded of the recent cases where in a bankruptcy banks have forced businesses to the wall and the suspicion is that it it was done because that way the banks got more profit from the sale of assets. The analogy doesn't work here though because in this case the bank will lose more than the creditor. I don't understand the thinking behind it.... Is it as simple as the old attitude that 'rules must be obeyed'....?
The latest interpretation of what is going on seems to be that forcing a default as early as Thursday this week will concentrate the minds of the Greeks and perhaps make them withdraw from the brink. If this is right it is a dangerous gamble.

[Tizer]

It might be a simple pig-headed stubborn attitude by the protagonists involved, unwilling to lose face - not uncommon, sadly.

[Stanley]

That's my suspicion as well. How can they publicly admit that the inception of the common currency without proper budgetary control is at the root of the problem? It all seemed like a good idea at the time....
I see that yesterday's meeting only lasted an hour, the political consequences in Greece are so dire that caving in to the Troika is as hard for the Greeks as it is for the EU. The big flaw in all this is that the rot has already set in for the EU as the bond-holders lose patience. The limits of damage control on the part of the EU has been breached and I don't see how they can avoid the train wreck..... The UK will not escape the consequences.....
Meanwhile, Labour thrash about arguing about the leadership and 'the way forward'. They can't bring themselves to recognise the fact that their power base of a disaffected core of workers supported by the unions has melted away while the Tories core, the Establishment and the wealthy is alive and well and prospering. Their only hope is to go back to the sentiments encapsulated in Clause Four and re-brand as Social Democrats supporting those suffering from inequality.

[Stanley]

Things don't get any easier for David Cameron. The honeymoon is over and he is beginning to find out just how hard it is to not only govern but control your party. Shades of John Major and his 'bastards' speech.
The EU is in the news but this time it's the furore over what to do about the flood of immigrants heading for Italy. What strikes me is that despite all the fine rhetoric about 'Human Rights' and the established legislation, the immigrants don't seem to be regarded as 'human'. It doesn't say much for European unity when everyone, including the UK, is falling over backwards to avoid any responsibility.
The Greek default is looking inevitable now and all of a sudden our masters seem to have woken up to the danger. The pensions companies announce that it could lead to a reduction in pensions of 10%. It's reported that Osborne is asking for assessments of the consequences. The bond markets are in turmoil and the stock exchanges are extremely twitchy. If the pessimists are right we are looking at looming disaster not only for the EU but for the global markets as well. What happens in the next week could set the economic climate for years to come. The question for the UK is, 'Is the economic miracle' robust enough to survive the fall out'. None of this is good news and is an indictment of EU policies and management over the years.