POLITICS CORNER

[Tripps]

They must be ace organisers - to arrange and carry out a national referendum in about nine days. Of course they invented democracy, so they should be experts.

Just caught the end of the service of remembrance for the 10th anniversary of the London bombings. Price Andrew seemed to be representing HMQ. Is he the best they could do? Only very recently back in the fold after the latest of his many brushes with notoriety. I hope the others all had a good excuse, or a sick note.

As he exited the church - I'm sure he had an expression of arrogance and disdain on his face, as he gave challenging looks, left and right to the congregation. 'I'm back - what are you going to do about it'?

I don't like any of them, but him the least.

[Stanley]

Agreed Ian..... I hate unearned privilege...
Tiz, all true but I am sure we don't know more than a fraction of the real situation. I heard a senior retired banker and hedge fund manager on R4 yesterday and he sounded like a balanced knowledgeable bloke to me. He made several points, first detailing the extreme depth of the Greek Recession, then pointing out that the Greek budget is (under the existing restrictions) running a surplus after factoring in debt repayments, one of the best performances in Europe. Then he commented on the enormous figures for Greek debt that are being showered around like confetti, he said that they were nonsense in that they weren't supported by the evidence, his estimate was much lower. His final comment was that this was not an economic crisis but a political one.
I can buy all this. The latest dribbles of information (no doubt heavily edited) coming out of the EU indicate that the penny has dropped, this isn't about Greece any longer it's about the survival of (at least) the Euro and could be the the whole European Project. (I have been suspecting this for a while) We have a 'final deadline' on Sunday. My prediction is that Alexis Tsipras will throw the EU a lifeline by agreeing to marginally more severe cuts but making some subsidiary demands of his own. At that point the ball will be firmly in the European court, they can listen to the hotheads demanding that Greece should be abandoned or the more moderate voices which say that Greece has a point and that the basic flaws are in the union itself. This latter point is the key. All the blame cannot be loaded on Greece and abandoning them to their fate.
As I said yesterday, this could eventually be seen as the best thing that could happen to the EU. It will point towards the absolute necessity of agreeing to address the major flaw, running a Common Currency without the requisite political and budgetary controls to manage it. This was what got Greece and other countries into trouble in the first place. Watch this space for another moment in history. I want the EU to succeed, it can only do this by facing the reality and setting its own house in order.
Meanwhile, Ossie is doing the classic tactic of 'running interference' in that he is signalling a slight alteration in the timing and depth of welfare cuts in his budget today. We are being conditioned for accepting that he is a good guy because he isn't going to kick our teeth in today, in reality he's saving that for later. He is managing crisis for his party's own ends. It's manipulation and I don't like either the policy or the way it is being imposed on us.

[Tizer]

I agree with what you say about Greece and the EU but how can anyone take Tsipras seriously any more. He's shown himself to be untrustworthy and unreliable; tells you one thing today, the opposite tomorrow. I'd love them all to find an acceptable agreement to save the Greeks but I can't see it happening with Tsipras in charge. He's lost all credibility and let down the Greeks badly by fooling around, playing games.

Donald Tusk, the EU President, must find his position strange at the moment. He's a Pole and Poland is not a eurozone member. Nor are eight other EU countries.

Jamie Coomarasamy, presenter of Newshour, makes a couple of interesting comments on the BBC web site....
Referring to 2004 when a number of countries joined the eurozone: "...the new, enlarged Union inevitably brought with it new tensions, in areas such as immigration and jobs. Southern European countries, whose lower costs and cheaper labour had previously been attractive, found themselves undercut by new members in the east. As businesses moved away, work became more scarce in Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece."

And: "At the same time as the EU was insisting that Poland and other prospective members met the exhaustive accession criteria, the founders of the single currency were taking on trust Greece's overly optimistic economic figures and, in some cases (notably, Germany and France) breaking their own, supposedly strict, fiscal rules." LINK

[PanBiker]

Back to our budget, found in Facebook land today, a bit of colourful language but hes bang on with his assessment:

[BBvideo 425,350]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5plRh4m ... e=youtu.be[/BBvideo]

[Bruff]

I note the Government has announced, about 1hr before the budget statement, that there will be a free vote on anti-hunting legislation next week. One almost thinks they’re embarassed about this. The PM’s spokesperson has noted he is likely to vote in favour of relaxing the ban. That’s fair enough. I was always puzzled by his professed support for Aston Villa. Or is it West Ham? I sympathise on his confusion, as I think footy fans know that when it comes to claiming support for a football team it’s often difficult to remember quite which one it is. With me it’s Burnley. Or is it Blackpool…..? The PM always struck me as the sort of chap for whom hunting was the sport of choice.

Anyway, I digress. I’m a bit relaxed about fox-hunting. Always have been. If folk want to climb on a horse and harrass with hounds a wild beast such that once exhausted and cornered it’s a blessed release to set the pack loose to eviscerate the thing, then it’s up to them. The dipping of the finger into the resultant corruption of steaming entrails to then smear on the cheek of the un-blooded is I suppose, just a bonus.

Budget today. The less advantaged to get another great big kicking. Watch ‘em cheer and wave their papers behind the Chancellor. Watch the joy. Makes you proud to be British.

Richard Broughton

[Stanley]

Tiz, my experience with my extended family has taught me that they are lovely passionate people but can be fiery and exasperating at times. Tsipras seems to fit the pattern and despite any reservations we phlegmatic Northern Europeans might have, at least he has the support of his electorate at the moment.... Let's face it he is an improvement on the Colonels and Papandreou....
Richard, that's puzzled me as well but remember he's a politician and they often speak with forked tongues.
As for the budget, I've largely ignored it because it makes me so angry but I heard a comment last night that it is actually a net tax raising budget but in obscure ways with Road Tax etc. His presentation was a masterpiece of spin from the bits I heard. If they were as good at governing as they are at obfuscation it would be a better government.
Meanwhile, in another part of the forest, the Chinese stock market loses about a third of its value and many firms have been banned from selling shares for six months. One of the drivers of the global economy seems to be having some local difficulties but all the media attention is on what are in comparison parochial matters....
Later, I have just heard a chilling figure.... 800,000 people will get either a cut or a severe cut in their income from Tax credits.... An awful lot of people thrown into misery by a 'One Nation' budget..... 'We're all in it together' ??
A bit later and many commentators are repeating the tax increase story, slamming the welfare cuts and noting that Ossie must have read the Labour manifesto because he seems to have stolen some of their clothes.

[Tizer]

Hearing so much at the moment about the `living wage' and attempts to get people off benefits and into jobs makes me think it's high time we thought more deeply about the whole area of jobs, work, wages and what they mean in the 21st Century and will mean in the future. There seems to be an assumption that there will be a job for everyone if we can get them all trained and, where necessary, motivated. But why should this be so, especially as `work' becomes more automated and processes more efficient and consumption might have to be checked in order to control climate change? Perhaps there will never be sufficient jobs to go round and increasing lifelong unemployment will become the norm. No longer will it be possible to `get people into work' and an increasingly large part of the population would have to be permanently provided with a `living wage'. It's time to stop bickering about right wing and left wing principles and instead to accept that we are faced with this paradigm shift and an urgent need to plan how we are going to deal with it.

[Pluggy]

Advances in medical science are the problem, people are living too long. Up to the early 19th century, the worlds population was largely static because people died off as fast as there were being born. Something to be said for a life expectancy in the forties and a high rate of infant mortality. Way off politically , but a harsh reality in this day and age.

[Stanley]

Pluggy I think it is within the wit of man to come up with a slightly better solution than that.... Tiz, you're right and I have been banging on about it for years. Not everyone is capable of being 'retrained' and anyway may not want to be. We used to have lots of manual jobs that allowed people who were perhaps not budding software engineers to have the dignity of a job, Street sweepers, night watchmen, bus conductors, make up your own list. Schumacher wrote 'Small is Beautiful' in 1973 on this very subject. Notice the sub-title, 'Economics as if people mattered'. Perhaps we should be reading him again.
See THIS for a guide to the full effect of the Tax Credits cuts. The IFS estimates that 13 million families will be £5 a week worse off despite wage increases. The government disputes this (LINK). It's a disgrace and the picture of IDS punching the air is a measure of the man. A lot of people are going to have to suffer even more misery and they are the worst off. 'All in it together'? What a sick joke....

[Tizer]

"We're all in it together"...I notice Alexis Tsipras has just used that phrase but I'm not sure what the Greek people will make of it. He's the man who held a referendum, told people to vote No to the austerity measures, then when they did vote No he goes and proposes to institute the austerity measures!

The BBC's Robert Peston: "Only a few days ago Mr Tsipras won an overwhelming mandate from the Greek people, in a referendum, to reject more-or-less these bailout terms. And today, on the back of that popular vote, he is signing up to the supposedly hated bailout. This is big politics that would make Lewis Carroll proud."

The BBC's Mark Lowen: "Mr Tsipras will have plenty of critics who say he was elected because he promised to end austerity and won a "No" vote rejecting creditors' terms just last Sunday - and now has gone back on virtually every pledge."

[Stanley]

I think most people are missing the fact that Alexis hasn't agreed to all the measures voted against in the referendum. He has also introduced the element of debt reconstruction in the deal he is offering. His parliament has agreed to this approach.
I think he's being quite clever, this deal is one that the French regard as viable. the Germans haven't said anything yet. The IMF approve the debt restructuring and haven't taken issue with the cuts. The ball is in the EU court and just consider what their position is. They have an 'improved' offer and if they reject it Greece leaves the EU and delivers what is at least a serious blow to the overall EU Project. The key is the debt reduction and the reality is that this is money that can never be recovered if Greece is not enabled to claw its way out of the hole they are in. It looks like a no-brainer to me particularly if the EU accede to his other demand, to be admitted to the EU reconstruction fund.
My bet is that the EU will try to get a bit more out of Tsipras as a fig leaf and will then approve the package. If not, some people, including me, will think that they are committing suicide. All the blame for what could happen will fall on them. I repeat what I have said before, It's not just the Greeks that are in trouble. Tsipras has succeeded in forcing the EU to look at the flaws in the Single Currency and that could eventually be the way forward for Europe. That assumes that the present mood of self-examination and honesty continues......

[Tizer]

Tsipras might get the EU to agree but what happens then? The Greek people will see that he's agreed to a deal that is worse than the one they rejected in the referendum. Will they forgive him for having dragged them through all the bank closures and grief of recent months or will they reject him too. The extreme left of his party don't want the deal, even though most of the Greek Parliament does. Will the Greeks roll over and accept it all now? Agreeing to a deal is one thing, getting the population to accept the changes peacefully is another.

There's a couple of interesting articles on the BBC web site today about Greece:
`Did Greeks fail to pay 89.5% of taxes?' LINK
`How has austerity worked out for eurozone countries?' LINK

[Pluggy]

If I were the Germans now, I'd be pulling the plug. Its been apparent for a while, Greece is a pit you throw huge quantities of money into. The Euro is a good idea, but it can only work if poor countries with questionable finances are excluded from it. If they bail them out again, and write off a pile of debt, there's Spain, Portugal and Ireland waiting in the wings...

[Tizer]

There are some wicked maps here...LINK

The Telegraph cartoon can be seen here: LINK

And on a more serious note, here is Yanis Varoufakis's take on the situation in a Guardian article today: LINK

[Stanley]

I'll stick to my assessment. It's not all Greece's fault and perhaps the end result might lead to an improvement on the EU.
On More or Less this morning it was pointed out that in terms of national debt to GDP (the measure that is always quoted about Greece) the UK is much worse. The only difference is that the bankers have never attacked us on bond yields....
Ireland and Iceland are different because they got the support, their bond yields held firm and they are now on the road to recovery with rising GDP and employment. The bond price held because the EU guaranteed them.....

[Stanley]

I'm watching what is happening in Europe and trying to make some sort of sense out of it. As far as I can see most of the economists, even those to the right of centre, agree that what is holding Greece back and keeping them in deep recession is the austerity regime being forced on them. It looks as though a good proportion of the members of the EU agree with this and advocate giving the Greeks some slack but the hard liners, led by Germany and in particular by the German Finance minister who is rabid in his opposition to any concessions are seemingly wanting to lock Greece into an even more stringent situation. The big problem is the credibility of the Single Currency. If Greece is allowed to go to the wall and leave the Euro with all the terrible consequences for the Greek population it is as much an indictment of the EU as the Greeks and will drive a wedge between the Germans and France. If they are thrown a lifeline the hard liners, particularly in Germany will revolt and most likely throw Angela Merkel out. There are so many sub plots that it is impossible to predict the outcome. We shall just have to wait to see how it affects the UK. History is being made here, I hope that common sense prevails but am not optimistic.
09:00. First reports that a deal has been reached on the Greek question but no details yet.

[Stanley]

There is a lot of badly informed comment flying about this morning, mostly due to the media milking the story for drama and financial 'experts' who were quite content to milk the Greek government in interest charges.
I have always supported Alexis Tsipras and his aims and when the dust settles he will be seen as having done a good job. He went into Europe and took on the EU on behalf of the Greek people.
Comparison with the original deal and accusations that Syriza have reneged on their promises are mistaken. The deal on the table then was for a 3 month concession, this deal is for three years with a substantial injection of cash. True the conditions are harder but this is to be expected as Tsipras has got the IMF back on side and has forced the EU to address the question of some sort of debt relief, most likely by making it so long term that it will no longer be a running sore.
There is another aspect of the matter that I think everyone has missed, possibly the most important one. It is being said that Greece has been humiliated and has lost fiscal and to some extent, administrative control. 'Loss of sovereignty'. This is true but the crucial point is that this is what has to happen in all the members of the Euro zone if the single currency is to succeed. It is the element that was missed when the single currency was first brought in. What you are seeing in Greece now is the template of what has to happen to everyone if the Project is to survive. The Troika, in effect the Germans, want to control the whole of EU budgetary and political policy in the same way. The problem that is going to rear its head is not whether Greece will play ball but how the other members react when realisation dawns. This is a step change in EU politics and was precipitated by Tsipras and Syriza. Watch out next for a fight between Germany and France.... Interesting times!
At home, a lot more to SNP opposition to the relaxing of the fox hunting ban than meets the eye.... Keep your eye on it....

[Stanley]

See THIS for a BBC report of the IMF criticism of the conditions imposed by the EU on the current bail out. I'm not sure what's going on here, this will not help the Greek Parliament to come to any decisions today which are necessary for the process to proceed. It's almost as though the IMF wants to torpedo the settlement.... I am frankly at a loss.

[Bruff]

The IMF concerns were known about a couple of weeks ago, and were reported in The Guardian and the FT. The Eurozone creditors had copies of the IMF’s views during the most recent negotiations. It’s important because the agreed terms would make invalid any IMF support to Greece as within the terms of the IMF charter (or whatever it might be called), they could not lend to Greece as the country will under what the Eurozone has imposed be too great a risk.

To be honest, Mr Tsipras knows this is not at all about the ‘economics’. This is all about the ‘politics’. That’s probably why he held the referendum and then signed up to a worse deal than that rejected. The Greek people now know that their views count for nothing. A Government’s mandate means nothing. Faced with a mandate the neo-liberal consensus simple ignored it and insisted on something worse. Unless the consensus is changed, then any country not ‘voting’ for a party wedded to neo-liberalism will have no mandate. Syrizia are in effect developing a rallying call to EU citizens: the EU is now so far from its model of social justice, captured by neo-liberalism, that it is content to see one of its members, force one its members even, into total social collapse and destitution. The outcome of which might be, when the Eurozone has again to revisit the Greek Problem (as they will under this deal), having to deal with Golden Dawn fascists.

Talking of which, the current Government here continues the well-worn Tory path of attacking the Trade Unions. Not content with the UK having the most restrictive labour relations laws of any developed economy, we simply must go further. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: the heeby-jeebies the UK has over ‘Trade Unions’ is a sign of enormous national immaturity. Quite why the Germans are so relaxed about these matters they have worker representatives on company boards whilst we collapse into a fit of the vapours at the very mention of ‘worker representatives’, is simply beyond me.

Still, I’m a democrat and I actually agree with the semi-related proposal to clamp down on Union funding of the Labour Party. I actually think that parties should be funded through general taxation, which is a recognition of the importance of a healthy plurality in society’s political views, and then member subscription. So Labour get no Union-bloc money. And of course the Tories get no hedge fund money and the like. This is a perfectly reasonable solution, nothing ridiculous in it.

It is though entirely ridiculous, and wholly undemocratic, that a Government can enact legislation with the specific intention of harming its political opponent(s). It is also extremely sinister.

Anyone see the 20-years old SNP MP Mhairi Black’s maiden speech yesterday? Extremely impressive eloquence and oratory. We need far more like her in Parliament.

Richard Broughton

[Stanley]

Richard I agree with everything you say and would add what I raised the other day. The Greek 'solution' is a template for the sort of political and budgetary controls that are needed in order to address the flaws in the Single Currency. In many cases they will not be as draconian because that will not be needed but will still be onerous and a loss of political and economic sovereignty. This has not surfaced yet but there will be politicians out there who recognise this and the question is will it be seen as control from Frankfurt? Like you I think Tsipras knew exactly what he was doing and has done a good job. The passing of the measures by the Greek Parliament has tossed a grenade into the EU and forced it to start the process of re-examining itself because the ball is now firmly in their court.
I also agree about the fact that the treatment of Greece is directly contrary to the finer elements of the EU Project. Now we have to watch what transpires, this is not over yet!
Could it be that the IMF is also thinking along these lines? Are they playing a clever game which encourages the EU to address its problems?
The unions.... It's shameful politics and raw Tory DNA is poking though. The 'party of the workers' restricts their rights. The 'One Nation Party' deprives children of support and forces the poorest into even deeper poverty. I stick to my original assessment of them, their ideal is to take us back to the laisser faire of the 19th century.

[Stanley]

While Europe digests the 'agreement' with Greece, here at home there isn't a lot of cheer for a social democrat like me.... The Tory Party are using their incumbency of the leading party in the House to go for those matters which have long offended them. The hatchet men are considering the role and future of the BBC. The running sore that the Tories see the unions as is being addressed. Hysterical comments about strikes and no mention of the vital role the unions could take in a proper recovery of the economy if co-opted on to the decision making councils. Richard was dead right when he assessed this.... Meanwhile the attack on the poor continues and services deteriorate as funding is cut to them. Forgive me for being gloomy but I am watching the advances gained by the ordinary people of this country in the 20th century being rolled back while we are being assured that the 'economic miracle' is a reality. If this is true, who is getting the benefit? Certainly not the 85% of the e,electorate who have seen their disposable incomes slashed. I saw a figure this morning related to employment. The writer pointed out that a large pert of the 'jobs' created in the last couple of years are due to people getting out of the wage war and becoming self-employed. I don't know whether the figure is correct but the writer said that the income of the self-employed had fallen on average by 20% since 2010....

[Stanley]

Another example of the Tory's moral standards. Before the election Jeremy Hunt made a cast iron promise that more money would be injected into the social care system and a cap of £72,000 (?) imposed on what anyone would have to pay. Yesterday it was announced that this has been deferred until at least 2020. In other words, forget it.... The 'Nice' party?
The Greek affair recedes as the news caravan moves on but there are increasing and unanimous opinions being voiced by responsible economists from all political persuasions that the conditions imposed on Greece by the EU are far too draconian and effectively ensure that Greece can never climb out of the debt trap.

[Tripps]

Another example of the Tory's moral standards. Before the election Jeremy Hunt made a cast iron promise that more money would be injected into the social care system and a cap of £72,000 (?) imposed on what anyone would have to pay. Yesterday it was announced that this has been deferred until at least 2020. In other words, forget it.... The 'Nice' party?
The Greek affair recedes as the news caravan moves on but there are increasing and unanimous opinions being voiced by responsible economists from all political persuasions that the conditions imposed on Greece by the EU are far too draconian and effectively ensure that Greece can never climb out of the debt trap.

Regarding care costs - I spoke to Andrew Lansley personally (in Waitrose ) and told him that my back of the envelope study showed that his scheme would not work. He told me not to worry as the insurance industry would soon come out with a product which for a regular premium, would deliver the required £72,000.

Earlier this year, the insurance industry, having trialled that product, abandoned it; since almost no one was prepared to pay the approximately £2,000 premium per person, required. Now the whole scheme is abandoned - looks like I might have been right.

[Tizer]

That's interesting about the insurance policy, Tripps. There were already policies (annuities) that you could take out to cover your future care. We looked at this for Mrs Tiz's parents but became suspicious about the reliability of such policies to do the job. It's easy for them to say "Pay us X thousand pounds and we'll ensure that your nursing home payments will be paid in the future. Take away the worry!" But what happens when the home increases its fees, when carers want (and deserve) higher salaries, when care in general becomes more expensive etc? Of course, when someone is already in a nursing home the premium will be very high. I guess the Lansley policy was meant to be for people saying throughout their lifetime where the premiums would be much less.
LINK

[Stanley]

I heard a discussion recently about the viability of the insurance policies proposed. A senior insurance executive conformed that consideration of them was on hold because there were no certainties in the market like Care Company's viability, costs or the ability of the state, via the local authorities, to fund the scheme. So I believe David is right and Lansley's answer is a fudge. The delaying of the implementation date signals that this is the conclusion the government has come to as well so, like any pragmatic system of governance, the only thing to do is kick it into the long grass.
The solution is simple but effective. Take the whole of care provision away from the profit-seekers, incorporate it into the NHS and fully fund proper care. Problem is that it would need Atlee and Aneurin Bevan to pull that one off.....
The Greek banks will open again under restrictions on Monday I think. The immediate disaster of a humanitarian tragedy and failure of the Euro has been avoided. Kicked into the long grass for three years.... Question is now, how much appetite is there in Europe for addressing the internal flaws that Tsipras and Syriza exposed so vividly? Anyone like to take a bet? My prediction is that until they do something seen by the world as effective remedial action the European economy is going to be in a straitjacket and in the end that is what will force change. Politicians don't do long term...... That has implications for the UK. Just because the Pound buys more Euros is not a reliable indicator of the health of the 'Economic Miracle'.