POLITICS CORNER

[Tripps]

It's not just here you know. What connection is there here in this, with crusaders and British policy in Iraq etc?

"I have a fairly sanguine view of 'terrorist attacks'. "

I'm think 'sanguine' is an unfortunate word to use here, and why put speech marks round 'terrorist attacks'? What else are they?

[Thomo]

It will never be just here, and anyone can make known all of the possible causes they wish. This is a new kind of cancer that has been creeping around this planet for some time, and thanks to political correctness and human rights etc, has been allowed to develop into what we have today, and is aided by modern technology. What happened in the past is history and cannot be changed, terrible events that took place in the 19th and 20th centuries eventually resulted in the greater part of mankind coming together and trying to put the past behind us, new and sometimes surprising alliances were born, They who are the subject of these posts would wish to drag us back into a world of their own warped beliefs, Christians, Muslims, Jews and all of the others who do not conform are under threat. These people may be martyr's in the minds of some, but they are not freedom fighters, they have no respect whatsoever for human rights, the Geneva convention or normal standards of human decency, any hopes of a peaceful conclusion went away not just last week but quite some time ago.

[Tizer]

We often hear arguments about whether defending ourselves against terrorism is or is not `war'. I think a useful comparison comes from all those science fiction novels about aliens landing on Earth and killing humans. I doubt that aliens from space would make a formal declaration of war and they certainly wouldn't be familiar with the Geneva Convention. How would we tackle aliens from space? I guess the first move would be to get all nations working together in the defence of human civilisation.

I see a parallel between the terrorism problem and the antibiotic resistance that has today become much worse (see Medical Matters). In each case we carried on in a way which was bound to lead to the ultimate problem, regardless of warnings. In the case of terrorism it's at least part due to Europe having persisted with the borderless Schengen Area which jas made it much easier for terrorists.

On a different matter, I note from a letter to The Times that all this talk of `replacing Trident' is confused. There is no plan to replace the Trident missile, either here or in the USA and it definitely will not be replaced until 2042 at the earliest. What is to be replaced is our nuclear submarines which carry the missile.

[plaques]

What a complicated world we live in. Take the latest question on whether the UK should join in bombing Syria. The current line up as far as I can see is :- America, France, Denmark, Holland, Australia, Canada, Jordanians , Saudis and Bahrainis, Iran are all at it. The only two who are legally entitled to bomb Syria are:- Syria themselves and Russia, possibly because they asked Assad if they could do so. By joining the 'Crusader team' it make look to some that all we are doing is getting our snouts in the trough to join at the spoils of war. If we wear our diplomatic hat, and who else can do it looking at the above line up, there will be no spoils to share out. So plan 'A' looks the best. One of the recent interesting developments in this whole business is that when Russia got involved in the bombing their latest move was to bomb the oil supplies that Isis gets their arms money from. This source of revenue has been known for a long time. Why did our side feel justified in leaving it alone? The probable answer that we will hear is that Syria will need it to get on its feet when its all over. Some hope!

[Stanley]

David, If that group claims a link to al Qaeda presumably they agree with the roots of Islamic fundamental beliefs including attacks on religion such as the Crusades. The apostrophes on terrorist attacks stems from my dislike of blanket phrases like terrorists or freedom fighters.... the attacks on Paris are murders or acts of war in retaliation for attacks on Syria. Of course they are meant to instil fear or terror but so are many other acts of war, like area bombing of Germany in WW2. The Germans then called the RAF and US airmen 'terror bombers' and I disagreed with that so it's probably just me. If it offends you I'm sorry.
I agree with you Tiz, it's difficult when terms are used by opposing sides to bolster their position. 'Martyrs' on one side, 'terrorists' on the other. They are simply enemies acting against our way of life because of opposing beliefs. I always liked the phrase 'clear and present danger' because that is a clear statement of what is happening. The use of language is important, I prefer accurate to inflammatory.
I see Cameron is to have a personal jet.... I thought he already had access to the RAF transport division..... Musing on that led me to contemplate the fact that the cuts to government spending and confused policies have damaged all the elements we need to defend ourselves. Armed forces and the police in particular. The indications are that the Home Office is going to call for a halt in police cuts and the woeful state of the armed forces, despite all the rhetoric, is going to have to be addressed as well. Time to have a look at the outsourcing of training and recruitment as well?

[Tripps]

" If it offends you I'm sorry. "

Nothing in what you write offends me - it's just a starting point for debate.

I still can't see how a Malaysian man of Chinese origin, or his ancestors, can have offended Muslims to such an extent that they murder him. Another hostage was released after a ransom was payed. Two years ago this same group marched into a town in Mindanao, and took it over, putting up their flag on the town hall. They were seen off by the army after a few weeks. More than 200 people were killed - mainly insurgents. The situation got almost no attention in the Western media.

The point I'm trying to make is that this is a world wide movement which imperils us, and a reason / excuse, for their action can always be found if sought. However much the media here say it has nothing to do with Islam, that is really the only common factor. Actually another is modern media - internet, social media, television, and mobile telephony, without which much of this could not happen.

[PanBiker]

There is a massive difference between the current threat and what anyone would describe as conventional war. In any such conflict, in the main you knew who your enemy was, in this situation you don't. Bombing raids in WWII were without doubt terrifying if you were the target but you could prepare for them by way of shelter. The later V2's were no doubt a different kettle of fish as they arrived without warning, that was their terror value and the nearest thing to the current threat even though they could not be accurately targeted. The current attacks do not focus on a countries infrastructure or it's military force with the sole purpose of disabling the targets ability to respond as is the object of conventional warfare. This is targeted violence against the ordinary man, woman or child in the street often perpetrated by home grown radicalised individuals. The ordinary citizen cannot protect against an enemy they cannot see.

[Thomo]

These last two comments speak volumes and are well thought out before delivery. Like it or not most of us understand where this situation has its roots, but we should not even be thinking this, let alone coming out with it, it is "not PC"! Another dangerous situation is now developing in Mali, many hostages have been taken and are in danger, the root cause is just the same, a religion, or at least a different view of it. Political wars are different and are more likely to be settled by negotiation or force majeure. This has less to do with historic differences and or mistakes in the past, and rather more to do with a level of tolerance that has either developed or been imposed upon the majority. We are supposed to behave in a humane and respectful manner to all regardless of religious or political divides. Many large city's boast of their multicultural records, strange is not that this is where most of these attacks take place!

[Stanley]

See THIS for an ABC report on last night's UN resolution calling on all able countries to fight IS. Crucially it doesn't invoke Chapter 7 of the Charter which gives legal justification for war. Jeremy Corbyn is expected to make a speech in which he will point out that we have reached this impasse as a result of bad foreign policy in the Middle East. He will be right if he does but anybody calling for calm and considered thought at the moment is going to be seen as out of step. Moderation is out of fashion at the moment in the present climate where escalation looks certain and this is going to have consequences throughout the Middle East. Syria is the touch paper for this and my fear is that nobody has any clear idea of how big this could get. World wars have started for less. I am very depressed.....
One of the internal consequences in Europe (including the UK) is going to be far right wing pressure based on the worst kind of ethnic fundamentalism.

[Stanley]

I know I am being very pessimistic but reading THIS does nothing to cheer me up. I can't help wondering what we are getting into. I heard an 'expert' on the radio yesterday poo-pooing the idea that this was the start of all out war, I hope he's right. One side issue has been Cameron's statement that ISIS had lost 25% of the ground they had gained. There was an edition of 'More or Less' on World Service this morning and they cast doubt on this figure, suggesting that at best it was half of that but that the fact that ISIS is embedded in some cities but hasn't moved yet hasn't been accounted for. Glib statistics like this are dangerous and don't convey the true or even full story.

[Thomo]

Cheer up Stanley, some of us have seen this coming for many years. Most of the people on this planet are pacifists at heart, no one wishes to go out and kill, or be killed, service life is based around a sense of duty and the desire to protect our way of life. It is inevitable that there will always be a minority with their own private agenda, warped or otherwise who are not happy with the mainstream ways of the world, and regardless of human decency will project and try to establish their will on others. My Grandfather was a pacifist yet spent six years in Salonika as an Army nurse in WW1 because he believed that it was the right thing to do. I am not certain about how the current situation can best be resolved, it will be difficult, but this is not a time for apathy, it simply does not work.

[Stanley]

Being pessimistic is not the same as being apathetic.

[Tizer]

Don't take it personally Stanley. Thomo's right that a lot of people do succumb to apathy at times like this and it doesn't help matters.

(It's a constant danger of Internet forums that when someone makes a post the previous poster thinks it's aimed at them! )

[Stanley]

The post started "Cheer up Stanley" so I think Thomo needs to look the meaning of apathy up. If he thinks I am apathetic he's not been reading my posts!
There was a comment on another thread about us scrapping the Nimrods, including the new ones. Interesting that the TV news I watched showed a clip of the scrapping in progress. The sorry affair of the Chinook helicopters is another good example of awful procurement decisions. After having had new one parked up for years because the computers were wrongly specified the MOD finally got them sorted and even ordered some new ones just in time for the need for them to disappear as we left Afghanistan. PE had an article on this a while back and said we were hiring them out to other forces. The least said about the planes for the carriers the better. Remember the report of BAE redundancies a few weeks ago as we cut back on the Typhoon?
The Tories are quick to accuse others of U-turns but this must be the biggest volte face in defence for many years.
Interesting also that while commentators were trying to work out costs and time-scales and wondering where the money will come from Ossie announces that he still needs £20billion in cuts 'to cut the deficit'. At the same time he says that MOD land is to be sold and staff in the ministry cut. The army manpower cuts go on and I begin to wonder where the 'joined up thinking' is in this mess.
As the barrage of fear provoking news descends on us we move inexorably towards boots on the ground in Syria. The generals assure us that IS can be 'defeated in a matter of weeks'. Really? Even if that is true, what then? The ideology is out there and isn't going to go away. This is the start of a very long haul.
Later. See THIS for news of a poll on Jeremy Corbyn's standing with the party members.... Better than Ed's ever was but he still gets attacked. I saw his question to Cameron in PMQs where he asked the PM to take careful note of the failed enterprises in Iraq and Afghanistan and reflect on his present course. Totally correct and in the febrile atmosphere at the moment thought and reflection, let alone moderate views, are thin on the ground.

[Tizer]

The shooting down of a Russian jet by Turkish planes will lead to some tension today...

Paddy Ashdown made some good comments this morning on the Today programme. We should do more to make the Saudis stop money flowing from their country to ISIS but UK governments have been frightened of upsetting the Saudis and losing the contracts for the sale of armaments to them. But it's an interesting situation - if we lost those contracts perhaps we'd lose our own armaments industry.

I'm glad to hear there's beginning to be more open and widespread discussion of the Shia and Sunni sects and how they relate to each other. We can't understand ISIS if we don't understand that.

[Tripps]

"The shooting down of a Russian jet by Turkish planes will lead to some tension today."
Indeed.
We now learn that there are yet another sectarian group involved in this mess. The area it seems is populated by 'Turkmen'. Ethnic Turks living in Northern Syria. They are rebelling against Assad, and last year - had the vote last year gone the other way - we would no doubt have been supporting them. Now our new best friends the Russians are bombing them.

Dennis Skinner asked the best question yesterday - words to the effect - 'what is your exit strategy'. The answer was 'very clear' - quite how it will be achieved is another matter.

From Hansard

Mr Dennis Skinner (Bolsover) (Lab): Like many Prime Ministers before him, this Prime Minister is already talking about a decision that he is going to put before the House to wage war in Syria. Has he got an exit strategy? Nobody else has ever had one.

The Prime Minister: The exit strategy is a Government in Syria who represent all its people. I would just make the point that when I first became Prime Minister we were nine years into an Afghanistan deployment, and I delivered that exit strategy by setting a time and a date by which our combat troops should leave that country and by which we should be training up the Afghans to take over. So yes, there must always be an exit strategy, and there will be a very clear one for this.

[Stanley]

Messy isn't it.... Interesting that we are already planning an exit strategy when we haven't even had a vote on whether to go in or not. Cameron has the bit between his teeth... he is going to try to do a Thatcher/Falklands.
Meanwhile Ossie gets ready to do his Autumn Financial Statement. He will do the usual flim flam about how well the economy is going and then heap more austerity on us via Public Services.... Deep Joy!

[Tizer]

The Times this morning is saying Mark Carney at the Bank of England is considering raising interest rates on buy-to-let loans and personal loans "to stop a dangerous credit bubble derailing the economy".

[Stanley]

The rising levels of national and personal debt are indeed a danger. This 'recovery' is built on debt, exactly what got us into trouble in the first place.
Interesting to note the agility with which Ossie did his U-turns yesterday. It seems they are OK when he does them..... He obviously recognises the political and economic dangers of austerity but is still locked into that flawed policy even though he has rowed back on Tax Credits and Police Cuts. In the end it is going to be the Tories' undoing.
Later.... see THIS for probably the most misleading headline of the year in the Telegraph announcing 'The end of austerity'. Really? Another £12billion in cuts in the pipeline and the consequences of previous cuts only now biting. This is totally misleading but the sad thing is that there are people out there who will actually swallow this canard.

[plaques]

Cameron is pushing for the UK to get involved in the air strikes in Syria. Meanwhile William Hague is suggesting we send troops to Syria. (Britain should be prepared to deploy ground troops in Syria to defeat Isis, the Coalition government’s former foreign secretary has said.). Remembering what Dr John Reid said about Afghanistan (We would be perfectly happy to leave in three years and without firing one shot because our job is to protect the reconstruction." By 2008, 4 million bullets had been fired by the British armed forces.).
Somehow I don't think our politicians always get it right. I go along with Dennis Skinner "keep out". Link. Spoilt a bit by an advert, worth watching through it to continue with Dennis.

[Tizer]

I enjoyed seeing this 1786 letter to The Times which was quoted by an editor of that same newspaper on 21st November 2015 under a heading `Needy are still losing out to pimps'.

[Stanley]

Nice one P. Dennis talks sense as did Corbyn when he urged caution. I note he is being vilified for refusing to back bombing in Syria and asking how credible it would be in weakening IS but so are notable Tory ex-ministers. I also noted that in all the statements yesterday it was Russia and France that took the lead, no mention at all of the US. How long can sanctions against Russia because of Crimea and the Ukraine remain in place if they are 'our gallant allies'? There is a lot of politics going on here..... Again, how open will the US be in sharing intelligence with Russia?
Another question, In view of our shortage of planes fit for active service, how credible is the UK contribution anyway? I am convinced that the desire to be a world player with echoes of empire on the world stage and 'punch above our weight' is again one of the driving forces behind this sabre rattling. The elephant in the room is the fact that all the politicians know that only boots on the ground can make any real difference and even if all these grand plans succeeded and smashed IS, the cancer of the twisted religion and fundamentalist beliefs will still be there but driven underground where it is harder still to combat. No wonder Chilcot is being hidden from us......
I forgot to mention McDonnell and the Little Red Book. As a joke it backfired, even his own side objected. Pity because doing it gave the government the perfect way out of addressing his original point. The Tories oppose state ownership but are quite happy to allow major elements of our infrastructure to be taken over by foreign governments. Nationalisation Plus!

[PanBiker]

I reckon to bomb or not will come down to a free vote for members of the PLP. You cant really use the whip when you are voting for bombing civilians which will surely be part of the argument. In another part of the politics forest, Ken Livingstone is being vilified now for his comments on Question Time last night for suggesting that the 52 casualties killed in the London bombings were a direct result of Tony Blair ignoring the security services warning that going into Iraq would make Britain a target for terrorists. Most of the flak is coming from the Blairite camp, the same ones that are threatening to resign over the bombing issue vote. The truth can sometimes hurt particularly in the dirty world of politics the sooner the New Labour faction is consigned to history the better. Ken defended his comments very well, the sad thing is he is right.

[Tizer]

Another question, In view of our shortage of planes fit for active service, how credible is the UK contribution anyway?

As well as a shortage of aircraft, the Tornados we're using are running out of their quota of flying hours, so the credibility is decreasing literally by the hour.

[Stanley]

They gave the game away for me when I heard an announcement that an individual bombing mission had 'destroyed an armed pick-up truck'. Really.... The politicians talk about bombing as though it is some sort of miracle weapon but we know from experience it isn't.
Ian, I saw the report of that and I agree with you, Blair closed his mind to any criticism even when it was his own chiefs of staff who were telling him that we would become a target. We are seeing politics completely controlled by smoke and mirrors aided by the worst sort of vilification in the media. Skinner, McDonnell and Corbyn make valid and intelligent points but are slighted and ridiculed. Further, someone has clamped down on the chiefs of staff because they surely know that we are being fed a load of guff but are keeping quiet. Take the shopping list for the military announced by Cameron a few days ago. All so far in the future they have no bearing on what is happening now.The news Tiz gave us this morning of the ending of the funding for Carbon Capture and storage is another election promise broken. The real experts tell us that the £27billion 'windfall' Ossie found down the back of the sofa is actually a forecast and probably a statistical blip but nevertheless he bases current policy on it....
The bottom line is that we are in trouble and these policies are going to implode. PE jokes this week that plans are being made for a second Chilcot into the Syrian problem. Could be more likely than they think.
Have a look at THIS for an extremely detailed and plausible report about the suicide of a young Tory party worker and the events which seem to have caused it. If this is true, and it certainly looks genuine, it is a terrible indictment of the nasty things that go on inside the world of politics.