POLITICS CORNER

[Tripps]

Very odd. Most of the evening, there have been hints there would be a U-turn, and the cuts would be consulted upon etc - i.e. kicked into the long grass, so there would be no reason for him to resign. Now he has resigned, and the No 10 spokesman says that there will be a U turn, and that IDS knew this when he resigned. He says this is not true.

Omnishambles squared.

[PanBiker]

He must not be in the inner circle of "need to knows" or something then Tripps. It's also been noted on the social media feeds that Cameron and Ossie have had a falling out over his offerings that it would appear don't add up.

[Whyperion]

Never quite certain what IDS really meant when he said in work benefits should mean that people are better off in work, the problem of rates of withdrawal exceeding gross incremental income ( and even more so when tax , and costs to get that income taken into account ), I would have thought should be solvable by the supposed bright minds in the treasury and elsewhere in govt, but that did not really happen, apart from the easy decision to lower gross benefits paid out. IDS's letter seems to think that (against manifesto and other pre-election media comments ), that the amount those of state pensionable age get should be lower ( effectively critiquing the triple lock in a time of low inflation). This probably makes sense, basic state pension did not really need to rise as much in the last two rounds, ( means top-ups mean those 'worse off' would lose less ).

[Stanley]

The ironic thing to me is that in what I think is a personal attack on Osborne, IDS has laid bare the 'Big Lie' that underpins all this administration's actions. We are not 'all in this together', policy is being driven by an attempt to put the poorest back in the same box they were in during the 19th century. They are only interested in preserving the upper echelons and massaging the sources of their wealth. (I sound like an old Leftie don't I)
I said the other day that I could see the seeds of dissolution in their policies. This may be the first serious crack.
As always, we are partially in the dark because we do not know the full story. However, we are allowed to make educated guesses. I have always said that the illusion of unity the Cameron government has projected since the election is just that, a façade. Under the surface they are fighting like ferrets in a sack for preferment, personal advancement and status fuelled by old fashioned unreformed Tory DNA. This was the genesis of the referendum fiasco, a totally unnecessary hazard. IDS has an Idea (welfare reform) and he has been pursuing it against the wishes of the Treasury and the Cabinet and the opposition has got too much for him. He sees his enemies as Cameron and Osborne and has cracked and gone for their throats. This is serious and what happens next is a test of the intelligence and political ability of his foes. On past evidence they will paper over the cracks but fail ultimately. Roll on the day!
The only thing that can reunite the Tories is concerted action by the Opposition which will force them to regroup, unify and fight to protect their slim majority. The clever thing to do now would be to be patient and allow them to continue their own demolition project. Painful though it is, they are doing a pretty good job!

[Stanley]

See THIS for a balanced report on the present unpleasantness in the Tory party. It's fairly obvious that the 'united, one nation' party is locked in an internecine struggle for power. The blame, quite properly, will, in the end, fall on the hard line Tory backbenchers who have forced Cameron into a corner and of course his inept Chancellor, George Osborne. It's hard to separate the two but the result is the same whichever way you slice it. Substance has won over spin at last and my bet is that there is a very good chance that post-referendum, both Cameron and Osborne are in danger of losing control.
It's noticeable that Boris and Teresa are keeping quiet, in terms of their own promotion prospects this schism is pure gold. It's inconceivable that Ossie can be regarded as a viable candidate now and the odds are that his 'economic miracle' is going to suffer even more damage in the next three months making things even worse.
One of the consequences of 'exciting' political news is that it knocks everything else into the long grass. See THIS for the latest estimates of who loses by the much vaunted Living Wage. 1.7 million self employed people will get less than the new National Living Wage, this under a government that says it champions the small entrepreneur. There is of course the parallel problem for Ossie in that as bits of his policies founder he still has the problem of finding the money they would otherwise have saved. Any chance of him relaxing the improvements in Capital Gains Tax?
It's going to be an interesting week. Just for once Labour are looking like the united party. I think the biggest mistake they could make is to attack the Tories on the grounds of pure party politics. They should concentrate on the potential havoc the Tory shenanigans could wreak on both the referendum and the economy. This is the biggest mistake the Tories have made, they have put personal considerations before what is best for the country.

[Tizer]

I'm not surprised the government went into crisis last week - every time there's a crisis or a budget it seems to coincide with me being on holiday! But I like it that way - no newspapers, no internet - we just come home at the end of the week and wait to see if the world is still turning. By the way, I did predict a couple of months ago that the government was going to melt down, burn itself out. Now it's definitely happening.

[Stanley]

I agree with you Tiz about inevitable failure but I saw Cameron galloping through his usual spiel straight from the Spin Manual yesterday as he 'defended' during PMQs. He's either run out of ideas or is in Auto Speak mode. The same old lies finishing with the big one about One Nation and compassion. Osborne made a big mistake by not attending and facing the music. Corbyn showed a bit of fire for once, he should go into attack mode more often. Boris and Theresa still silent....... If this was a Greek tragedy they would be part of Nemesis.
Later... I spoke too soon about Boris! See THIS for a Guardian report on his intervention yesterday. The article also gives a very fair overview of where we are at. The Cameron honeymoon is definitely over and he faces another 4 years of the same....

[Bruff]

Before the election last year, the Tories committed themselves to finding £12.5B cuts in the welfare budget. Just where did people think these saving were coming from given that we know the unemployed account for just a few percent of the total bill, ‘immigrants’ about the same and fraudsters barely anything, and pensioners were protected? How daft do you have to be in the face of this freely available information from the Government’s own sources to think any of that 12.5B would not come come from the disabled, those in work or otherwise those ‘folk who do the right thing’? It simply had to come from these groups given that none of the ‘scrounger’ groups of popular discourse account for anything like this total. By all means go out and vote Tory if you want (and 3M of what we might call the working poor did) but don’t cry on Question Time when you realise the implications, particularly when it didn’t take much thinking about.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: The Tory party exists to ensure that wherever there is money to be spent then someone should get rich and all the better if this is you and your kith and kin or your cronies and your like. The cut to the top rate and corporation tax whilst at the same time hammering the disabled and the poor is simply par for this course. If a quite blatant par. More insidious is the denying of funding to public services, concurrently putting in place strictures and structures designed to make them fail and turning the user against them, so as then to bring in the private corporations as the only option for saving the system. This is happening now in the NHS and our schools, across indeed much of the public sphere. It is being dismantled and corporatised. Oh Boris and David D and IDS will worry terribly at the blatant. But be in no doubt: they are 4-square behind the bigger picture.

Richard Broughton

[plaques]

Excellent Bruff. The problem is that people don't think. How often do we see news items that are simply designed to draw attention away from the main issues. I will quote an example from this weeks issue of the 'Pendle Matters' (the local Conservative news sheet). This is a front page item. 'The Conservatives proposed the introduction of a Fixed Penalty Notice for failure to carry a doggy bag to tackle dog fouling...' Unfortunately some people will see this as a major issue worth voting Conservative for. If we stopped frivolous mobile phone texting and made credit card debts to be cleared each month then they may wake up to the issues that really mattered.

[plaques]

George Osborne admits he made a mistake. "I have made it clear that where we’ve made a mistake, where we’ve got things wrong, we listen and we learn. That’s precisely what we’ve done.” Give the lad his due he's pretty new to the game of presenting budgets he's only been doing it 6 years. Perhaps he thought nobody would notice that he had taken the odd copper or two from the disabled and passed it to his buddies.

[Stanley]

Excellent posts that go straight to the heart of the matter. My contribution to both of you is the thought that if the Tories are good in one area, it is in surviving. Somewhere in the background there is influence at work. In the old days it used to be Lord Salisbury and the men in grey suits. I suspect that now it is the large money interests that guide and protect. Richard is absolutely correct in his assessment of who the winners are in any crisis situation. Read Naomi Klein's book 'The Shock Doctrine' and reflect that she gave the road map to what is happening now. I am convinced that the major objective is to dismantle the structures that have been erected over the last 100 years to balance the power between the haves and have nots. What we are looking at is class war of the worse kind.
I go back to another set of principles of governance, the dreaded McKinsey doctrine where everything is reduced to factors that can be managed, concepts like fairness and compassion are not taken into account. Governance of the modern business or world is so complicated that the only way it can be managed is by using profit and loss as the criteria. Concepts like Local Government, a free health service and an effective welfare system can never be a profit centre, therefore they have to be modified. This is what we are looking at now, protected financial institutions, personal wealth and the ability to consume as the criterion of worth and the preservation of those structures we loosely call 'The Establishment' as the top tier in the management of the country.
The irony of course is that this system of management guarantees the extinction of the benefits of privilege as it drives a wedge into society and increases instability. It creates an opportunity for unusual and violent reaction against the status quo. We are seeing this in the Middle East at the moment, it is the genesis of the terrorist groups. Piketty laid this out, in the absence of a meaningful readjustment of taxation, genuine progressive taxation of wealth, productivity will stay below the level needed for the maintenance of society and the historic reaction has been unrest. What use is a large bank balance if you are snuffed out by a bomb at a check-in?
I see the likes of Cameron and Osborne as puppets who have been duped and who are being unwittingly controlled by forces they are too thick to comprehend. This doesn't excuse them but it means they are unfit to govern.

[David Whipp]

'The Conservatives proposed the introduction of a Fixed Penalty Notice for failure to carry a doggy bag to tackle dog fouling...'

Disingenuous... whether or not frivolous.

Such provisions can be included in new Public Space Protection Orders (PSPOs) and the odd council here and there are doing so.

Pendle Council's executive had previously discussed including this sort of thing in PSPOs which will be made in the next couple of years. (I don't think there were any Tories present during this discussion.)

The process is quite lengthy and includes periods of public consultation. If such measures prove to be practical and effective, they can be included in PSPOs (after the extensive legal processes).

To put it forward at the budget meeting, disregarding all the due process surrounding the introduction of PSPOs, was just a stunt, with the Tories seeking to claim credit for something already under consideration.

[plaques]

I understand what you are saying and having just put my foot in a pile of the 'slippery' stuff I may agree with the sentiment. But behind all this camouflage is the fact that Pendle Council are having to make some serious cuts to their services because of the shortfall of the government grants. Not a word is printed about why we have got into this situation only a tongue in cheek comment that we are getting less for an increase in council tax. If there had been some statement highlighting a management failure that is wasting money or even pointing to policy actions that nobody wants I could go along with it. The nearest we got to this was a comment about refurbishing a building in Vernon St; Nelson, which at first sight appears worth following up.

[David Whipp]

Thanks P.

The bigger deceit in the Tory paper is the pretence about 'no increase' in council tax...

1) For the past few years, the Tory led administration at Pendle has been transferring services and facilities to town and parish councils, with those local bodies then putting up their element of the council tax. (This year in Colne, where the Tories now have a majority on the town council, the local council tax has more than doubled.)

2) The bulk of council tax, almost 70%, goes to the county council. At county hall this year, the Tories agreed with the increase of almost 4%.

3) George Osborne has included maximum allowed council tax increases in government spending plans through to 2020 (he's telling councils to put it up...).

4) The government has scrapped the grants for council tax 'freezes'.

Why can't they be honest about putting up the council tax?

[Whyperion]

Why can't they be honest about putting up the council tax

Cameron was,

-Lower Income Tax so that people have more money in their pockets to spend
(he didn't specify what they needed to spend things on, and localism means that local areas can make their priority choices)

[Stanley]

'Localism' as defined by the Tories is giving local councils the power to control their own policies. This is a lie because unless there is a transfer of funding with the power it is simply a way of reducing government expenditure by rejecting responsibility, any problems can be blamed on the councils. The classic and most dangerous case is Social Care. Outsourcing vital services to industry who 'can do it better' is another example, see the NHS. Note that there has been an announcement that teacher training is going to be supervised more by headteachers in schools. The university's role in the sector was reduced (because they are Lefties) and given to an outside body who have failed spectacularly. The MOD outsourcing is also seen as a disaster. Hinkley is outsourcing gone wrong and again, we will pay the price. For really efficient government we need control of the economic heights and proper funding.....

[Stanley]

Politics is on hold for Easter. No doubt the bad people will be on holiday as well.... I hope someone is looking after the shop!

[Stanley]

THIS was a slow burner. Bruce Keogh made the remarks almost a week ago but it only surfaced yesterday. Hunt is ignoring all the advice he is getting from the professions. It looks more and more like interference from Whitehall and less a genuine effort to improve. Perhaps we should listen to the people who have to make this work. Or better still, stop interfering!

[Tizer]

An explanation of what's gone wrong in the mighty US of A and why The Trump is doing so well (with a few references to The Boss thrown in too.)

"The London-based American writer and broadcaster Michael Goldfarb is frequently asked on air why this year's US election has turned out to be so unusual, and whether insurgent Republican candidate Donald Trump can really win. He has to give a short answer. The long answer, he argues here, involves going back 40 years.".... LINK

[Stanley]

He's right in his analysis and the same thing is happening here. Basic education was always driven by the need of industry for literate numerate workers and it's no coincidence that the numbers of poor people who aren't being given these basic skills has risen as industry's need for factory fodder has declined to to the introduction of modern manufacturing methods. I've just finished reading an American textbook on machining technology produced just after WW2, it covers all the skilled machining operations that need an intelligent operator. Most of these skills are redundant now on the factory floor because computer controlled machine tools can do the job faster and with greater accuracy. They don't call in sick either. The Chairman of GM had it right when he said that the trouble with robots was that they didn't buy cars....
There is still very highly skilled work done by hand in tool rooms and development labs but once the machines are perfected they go out on to the factory floor and destroy what were good, well paid jobs. I once had a conversation with a man called Trevor Grice who ran what was then Renolds PLC and he told me that if he found a machine that saved three wages he installed it without a second thought. The same thing has happened in other areas of basic industry, exacerbated by the fact that as regulations (and costs) rise, it is cheaper to export essential dirty industry to developing countries where standards are lower and the need for 'modern manufacturing' is greater. Where are all the iron foundries now? Where do we get coal? Where are the length-men and road sweepers that gave disadvantaged labourers the chance of the dignity of paid work? Add to the list yourself.
The end result is an underclass who have no chance of getting a share of the pie and yes, they are angry. Read Marx and Piketty on Capital!!
See THIS for a BBC report of Cameron's 'Easter Message'. What a pity that the rhetoric he uses isn't reflected in the policies of his administration. It isn't very 'Christian' to pander to the big money, attack the pensions and incomes of the poorest and practice the discrimination that permeates the whole of government and the households of the Monarchy and other centres of power in the Establishment. If the Bible is to be believed Christ whipped the money-changers out of the Temple and said that a rich man couldn't enter the Kingdom of Heaven. This administration upholsters the seats in the 'temple' and encourages the gathering of wealth into the top echelons. (I wonder if he has noticed that the Anglican church is in a period of slow but inexorable decline?)

[Stanley]

See THIS for a classic example of the perils of straying outside marriage.... Petronella (Or Pertonella as headlined on Google) says she is still 'friends' with Boris. With friends like this who needs enemies? Quest5ion is, is the Mail right when it suggests that this will have an effect on career prospects or how politics functions these days. There are several ministers and peers whose track records are so dire that in the real world they would be on the dole but who miraculously survive. Against this, contrast the reports we are getting of Cameron 'blanking' former chums who are fighting for Brexit. My view is that much depends on the outcome of the referendum in June. If Cameron gets his STAY verdict I have a feeling there will be a week or two of the long knives. If he loses, who knows, are the Tories prepared to rip themselves to pieces attacking their Leader? If there is one overriding force that drives the Tories it is the tendency to close ranks if that is the route to preserving the party's eminence in government. Interesting times....
Meanwhile apart from the issuing of controversial diktats in the cases of education and the junior doctor's contracts normal government seems to be at a standstill.

[Stanley]

The political matter which grabs me this morning is the decision by Tata Steel to sell the Port Talbot works. (LINK). I class this as a political matter. At the moment, in common with Scunthorpe, this is the death knell for these assets as nothing deteriorates faster than a disused steel plant. The re-commissioning costs are vast and the only customers are hedge funds looking for cheap assets. If a firm the size of Tata can't support these plants, there is no chance of selling as a going concern. Both plants are the mainstay of the local economies and the outlook for both Scunthorpe and the Port Talbot areas is grim.
What we are seeing is the latest phase of the destruction of our basic industries. Nye Bevan said we should retain control of the commanding heights of the economy just for this eventuality, the protection of vital assets and skills when the markets turn against them. If necessary this should be done by protection. Over the years we lost ship-building, nuclear construction, the rail system, energy and now steel because they could not be protected and were in the control of firms with shareholders who have no regard for the strategic value of these industries. This is the long view from which government has abdicated, they are in the process of doing the same thing to the NHS and Education and yet still try to maintain the fiction that 'something can be done'. It is a disgrace, a national loss and the guarantor that in future in these matters we will be increasingly exposed to the vagaries of the global market. This is not an argument for full nationalisation but one for retaining ownership and control in the UK for vital assets. It's a sad day.

[PanBiker]

Just heard the Business Minister repeat "We are looking at all options" six times within a 30 second sound bite on the radio news, sounded a bit like a headless chicken, probably about right. Bloody disgrace.

[Tizer]

The shares of most of our businesses are now in the hands of pension funds and overseas interests. As I've just written on the Attention thread, the company that pays my pension has gone through several owners, including venture capitalists, and is now about to be taken over by a US firm. I also have some royalties from my publishing days and they've also ended up being paid by a big US firm. I hope we never fall out with the rest of the world or many of us will lose our pensions!

[plaques]

This whole business of the collapse of the steel industry reminds me of Jarndyce V Jarndyce. After looking at all options, time and money will have run out and the government will shrug their shoulders and say it all came as a bit of a surprise and there is nothing that we can do. Looking on the bright side we should be able to put back the Hinkley Point power station another few years.