POLITICS CORNER

[Stanley]

It was deliberate Tiz.... I heard someone on R4 describe the year as £2.17 and it tickled me. But don't bother changing it again!
I listened to Mrs May's New Year message..... What on earth makes these people think that a bunch of assorted platitudes and aspirations is going to cut any ice?
I've been catching up on my Private Eyes...... Not cheerful reading but I did pick up one piece of good news which had slipped me. Just before Xmas it was quietly announced, buried in an obscure report from the Dept of Trade and Industry (I think), that the proposal to eliminate historical records from Company's House data has been dropped. PE in particular was very vocal about this when it was announced as the ability to look back at the record is one of the most valuable tools the investigative journalist has. By the way, have a look at the PE website for the names of local councillors who have been dilatory paying their Council Tax.
Have a look at THIS for the latest rail fare price rises. Why is it that I don't trust a word that Grayling utters?

[Tizer]

`Donald Trump makes top Republican fear environmental future' LINK
"A leading US Republican says she fears for the future of her seven grandchildren with Donald Trump in the White House. Christine Todd Whitman, head of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under George W Bush, accused Mr Trump of ignoring compelling science. And she warned that his threat to scrap climate protection policies puts the world's future at risk. Trump supporters say rules on climate and energy are stifling business. But Ms Todd Whitman says the US must find ways of promoting business without unduly harming the planet. Details of Mr Trump's climate policy are not yet clear, but his team have talked about boosting coal, opening new oil pipelines, and allowing mining on public wilderness or drilling in the Arctic. On the political side, they have suggested quitting the global climate deal, scrapping President Obama's clean power plan, and dismantling the US energy department along with the EPA itself."

[Stanley]

Absolutely correct Tiz and this is what I have banged on about already in 'What Attracted your attention' this morning. I have long held that the biggest basic fault with our world at the moment is sheer incompetence. When this is allied to stultifying ignorance it is a recipe for global extinction. Sometimes I am glad I am old and will die soon...... But God alone knows how my descendants will cope.

[Stanley]

What grabbed me this morning is THIS BBC report of the resignation of the ambassador to the EU, Ivan Rogers. You may remember that he did his job and reported to HQ that opinion inside the EU was that there would be at least ten years of negotiation over Brexit. This was not what his masters and Mistress wanted to hear and he was rubbished. He has resigned and this is being presented by the government as normal housekeeping in the Foreign Office allowing a new man or woman to be appointed before we trigger Article 50. However, later news is that he has blown the gaff to his staff in his resignation message telling them to continue speaking truth to power and to beware of 'muddled thinking' at HQ. It becomes obvious that the reason he has gone early is that he is fed up with being ignored by Downing Street.
If someone as close to the action as Mr Rogers is of this opinion, how confident can we be in the ability of the government to manage Brexit? It confirms my suspicions that in truth, May and her team aren't even prepared to face reality and admit that we face many years of disadvantage caused by Brexit. Add to this the statements from Brussels that strongly suggest we are not going to be given an easy ride and the fact that once Article 50 is triggered we become supplicants with hardly any bargaining chips and a rather gloomy picture starts to emerge.

[Tizer]

The resignation of the ambassador to the EU is reported in different ways on the front pages of today's national newspapers in Britain. Four papers report it objectively but the Telegraph and Express put their own spin on it while the Mail, Sun and Mirror don't have it on the front page at all. We now have a serious problem with about half of our national newspapers ignoring or spinning important information to suit their readers rather than presenting it objectively.

Times: `Envoy quits over Brexit muddle.'
Guardian: `Brexit row as top EU envoy stands down'
i: `Brexit talks in chaos'
FT: `London's frustrated EU envoy resigns weeks before deadline on Brexit clause'

Telegraph: `May to pick Brexiteer as our man in Brussels'
Express: `New hope for Easter EU exit'
Mail, Sun, Mirror: Doesn't mention it on the front page
Sun: Doesn't mention it on the front page
Mirror: Doesn't mention it on the front page

[Whyperion]

On pollution, quickest way to sort it, always make sure that the directors of firms that cause pollution live in, and down of, the area where their effluent flows.

[Stanley]

Sir Ivan deserves a vote of thanks for lobbing a grenade into No 10 which most objective commentators agree is correct. There is no plan! I watched IDS doing a hatchet job on Sir Ivan and asked myself who, of the two, I would rather believe. Go figure! In the absence of any evidence to the contrary I will go with Sir Ivan's version. May's office tells us that there will be a statement before the letter goes out triggering Article 50. I predict that it will be a mess of platitudinous aspirations and half baked 'red lines' that won't amount to a mess of beans. After all this has been May's style up to press. I have a premonition that we are in deep doo-doo! The Xmas results from Next have done nothing to reassure anyone and yet that supreme indicator of market confidence, the stock market index is at its highest ever. What the hell is going on? (That is actually the right question.....) This is a potential disaster and the reassurances of Yesterday's Men like IDS do nothing to comfort me.
I see that the future of agriculture lies in the hands of that paragon of political competence Angela Ledsom who only got the job as a quid pro quo for dropping out of the leadership race. Has she any qualification for this major task? What could possibly go wrong?

[Tizer]

The stock market bubble is expected to burst very soon. Although the Index is high it's been very volatile and that's always a warning of trouble ahead. Although we're told to `leave it to the markets' as if they are independent and organic those markets are artificial and easily manipulated by rich people and rich organisations. They'll bump it up or down as it suits them and become even richer. The politicians seem to always ignore this obvious fact.

[Stanley]

You're right Tiz. A lot of the wrong people are making money out of austerity...... Great system!

[Tizer]

Joe Biden is my hero for today! Play this BBC video and listen to what he says about Trump: LINK
`Russian hacking claims: Joe Biden tells Trump to 'grow up''
"US Vice-President Joe Biden has told President-elect Donald Trump to "grow up" and criticised his attacks on the intelligence community."

[Stanley]

What a good statement! Pure common sense and not a hint of political bias. Of course Biden is right and it was noticeable that after his meeting with the intelligence services yesterday Trump has made a half-hearted retreat on his previous statements but I doubt if he has done anything to mend fences with the intelligence community. We now know of course that the intelligence assessment is unambiguous and backed by evidence states that Putin himself was involved and the motive was to damage Hillary Clinton. This is the bit that is sticking in Trump's craw because it casts doubt on the legitimacy of his election success.
I said very early on that what interested me was how Trump would react when he came into direct contact with the realities of running the US. I see no evidence of an impressive intellect and plenty which suggests he is an arrogant, egocentric bully. This might be effective in business circles but government is a different matter. He will have to modify his approach if he is to be effective and if he doesn't, he could implode.
Then there is the question of his 'supporters', the deluded people who, fired by his outrageous statements on the stump, voted for him. What will their reaction be when they see the 'promises' vaporising as reality bites home? Think about Obama, a very intelligent politician who had a clean slate as the first black president and solid support in the country. Even with these advantages he was blocked at every turn by the House and Senate. Does Trump believe he can do better? After all he is anathema to many Republicans. If it gets to be a straight fight between Trump's excesses and the system, the system will win and none of this bodes well for the governance of the US at a crucial point in its history.
Meanwhile, at home, there is a deathly hush in Downing Street after the shock of Sir Ivan.... They are trying to play the whole business down but the truth is they have lost one of their major assets, someone who actually understands how Europe works. Listening to IDS the other day I was struck by the poor quality of the team if this is the only response they could make to Sir Ivan's departure. They attacked the man and didn't address his evidence. This is not good.

[Tizer]

I see some similarities to Hitler in Trump - but I'm not accusing him of being a Nazi. I'm thinking about how the Allies winning WW2 was to some extent due to Hitler doing his damnedest to lose it. If he'd listened to his generals the war might have been over quickly and Germany the winner. Instead, he acted like Trump and demanded things were done his way regardless of whether or not they made sense. Example: the Luftwaffe were well into destroying the RAF's airfields ready for the invasion but Hitler made them switch to bombing cities becasue he was incensed by a few of our aircraft having the audacity to sneak in and drop some bombs on Berlin. Example: Messerschmitt developed a high-speed jet fighter but Hitler made them use it as a bomber. Trump is like Hitler in this respect but fortunately he doesn't have the power that Hitler had and he won't get away with follies so easily. I hope this is going to bring him down very quickly. I wonder if the authorities are still investigating his tax affairs? What happens if he was found out to be a serious tax evader?

[Stanley]

It would be glossed over Tiz. The damage of impeaching a President is far greater than controlling him. Question is how would he react to being controlled?
I can't help thinking that there is more long term damage in the growth of Populist Right Wing politics in the US than anything Trump could do. Read Naomi Klein 'The Shock Doctrine' again and have a bit of a think..... Nasty stuff!
I see May has been spouting platitudes again saying that she is going to attack inequality in society. In an article in the Telegraph she previews a major speech she is going to make. (LINK) If she was really serious she'd be addressing present ills and not future aspirations (but then they cost nothing....) Multiple voices are telling her that the NHS has reached breaking point. Her Transport minister Grayling is denying all responsibility for the ills of SE rail in spite of the fact he is in charge of it, in terms of financing it is nationalised but the board are allowed to take a guaranteed profit out of a broken system even if they run it at a loss. Domestic debt is rising, a TUC report today estimates it at £13,000 per household. I could go on and you can supply other examples. These are not the indicators of a healthy society or economy and we are gradually sliding into the status of a banana republic despite the use of statistics on the financial market to prove everything is fine. Yes, that's right, I am not impressed!

[Tizer]

Your comment on populist right-wing politics in the US strikes a chord. I heard a commentator on the radio a couple of days ago saying that a big difference between the US and UK is that Americans use social media much more than the British do. I thought that was interesting but, as ever, is it true? The level of Internet use is similar in both countries, but what about social media? I furtled and found the best information from a Pew Research Center report. The results of their most recent survey (2012) are shown in the table below.

The % using social media is similar in both countries - as always we can't take what we hear on face value. But it threw up some other interesting information. Although both countries show about 50% usage of social media there are big differences in what we use it for. Run your eye along the first two lines (US and UK). The Americans seem to be much more definite about their usage (especially for religion). I think this might partly explain how Trump has done so well. Americans are much more vocal about their views on social media and Trump simply tapped into this by doing it on a grand scale. If he'd tried it here it wouldn't have worked so well...but will that remain the case in the future?

[Stanley]

That's interesting information Tiz. Looking down the rankings for religious use is a roll call of the places I would regard as the most unstable. Interesting that you can compare the US with these using this information. Of course the quality of the information and the way it is gathered is important. I don't have direct knowledge of Pew Research but the fact that you have quoted it gives it weight in my mind. I wonder what a current survey would show?
My mind goes back to 1981 when Steve Constantine alerted me to the Rowntree social surveys starting back in the 19th century. Totally reliable and non-political they still carry weight with me. The question rises in my mind, what would the political landscape of the country look like if policies had been based solely on information like this? That would be a sort of Utopia for me and it could never happen because of the multitude of other pressures on decisions. Pity we can't rank their influence in terms of the greater good! Seebohm Rowntree was warning us of the same ills then as we suffer now, poverty, bad health and the inability of wages to provide enough to live. I've always had a healthy respect for surveys like this and it might be the time to remind everyone of Charlie Webster's piece 'Healthy or hungry thirties' on the site in which he proves that health statistics were deliberately manipulated by the government to 'prove' that everything was fine. Sounds familiar? Some things don't seem to change.....

[plaques]

The first thing to remember when looking at a social network survey is that you are surveying a selected group of people who have the wherewithal and inclination to access these sites. The old comparison was 'telephone surveys'. Totally meaningless when only the better off had telephones. The first thing I do when I see a survey request is switch it off. So how is my response evaluated? Virtually every day I will read ALL the Google news headlines and quite a number of selected items usually furbished by our numerous right wing Tory papers. If my habits were assessed against what I read on line then I would be classed as a rabid Conservative. Who knows??

[Tizer]

The Pew Research Center was started in 1990 and is highly respected. LINK Like Plaques, I have my reservations about the value of surveys but we nevertheless need some information and all we can do is look for the best independent and reliable sources. We're very fortunate to have the Internet and web to give us access to sources such as the Pew Center.

[Stanley]

And Rowntree, still going strong and doing good work! I agree with P that some surveys can be suspect but some have proved their worth over many years....
I see from the comments on May's speech on society that I am not the only one who smells a rat. We have had over twenty years of aspirations and initiatives, in all of what I regard as the important areas we have slipped backwards. It was starting long before 2008 saw the triggering of the credit crisis as the ethos moved away from progressive taxation and fair distribution of wealth towards regressive taxes and eroding the benefits of what we used to call The Welfare State. I know you'll groan but read Marx, Piketty and Stiglitz. We are now trapped in perhaps a century of deterioration. Yes, it's a gloomy view but realistic when you look at the evidence.
May has the added disadvantage of Brexit which is going to overshadow policies for at least ten years..... Even if she was serious and wanted to institute remedial policies she is saddled with lack of funds and Parliamentary time. In other words, don't hold your breath.

[Stanley]

The NHS is looming large, excuses and dodgy statistics are no longer sufficient. Funny thing is that everyone has gone quiet about the last disastrous reorganisation by the Coalition Government. Many clinicians say that this is at the root of the speed of decline. This national treasure is under threat. Hunt's solution to the trolleys in the corridors seems to be to move the goalposts and only include 'severe' cases in the waiting time figures. Anyone remember Andrew Lansley?
Trump is again in the news for all the wrong reasons, the Manchurian Candidate?
I am getting fed up with Jeremy Corbyn. I have been waiting for him to grow into the job as leader of the opposition but his thinking seems woolly and his gaffe yesterday when he spoke 'clarifying' the Labour position on Brexit and immigration was spoiled when he added what seems to be an off-the-cuff remark that 'nothing was ruled out' has done nothing to reassure me.

[plaques]

As our politicians are always keen to point out 'the fact of the matter is' every time Mrs May opens her mouth and says' Brexit means Brexit the £ sinks to a new low value. I think she has now learnt her lesson and clarified the situation by saying that she doesn't recognize the terms Hard and Soft Brexit. That should inspire everyone to know that the person leading the charge doesn't know what she is doing. Meanwhile our court jester is in America and telling us we are in the front of the line for any trade deal. The phrase " don't wait for me I may be a little while" springs to mind. The good news is that the price of food is going up to compensate for the drop in the £. Therefore, inflation will go up which is what we all want, isn't it? Corbyn dithers on free movement from the EU to the UK and mumbles about capping excessive salaries. He would have been better off keeping quiet and letting Mrs May take the flack rather than let the right wing press divert attention from what the government intends to do. After all, the opposition party have now power to do anything.

[Bruff]

Agreed. Said it before. Hard and soft brexit are a nonsense. We will leave the EU and the single market. Membership of the EU means the obligations of membership via participation in its institutions and agreement to paying one’s share of the budget, and membership of the single market and the obligations that come with that, the famed four pillars. The question on the ballot paper was crystal clear and we voted to leave the EU so we want nothing to do with the EU and its institutions, its funding, its democracy and its single market. The German Finance Minister explained all this before the vote, and I imagine it is well-understood across Europe.

Quite why the likes of Bill Cash had a go at the Commission for linking free movement to the single market in their statements coming out of the last EU summit (when he questioned the PM in the House on her return), I have no idea. He seems to have no idea of the EU. But then he wouldn’t. He has always opposed the EU since Maastricht, and so is seemingly in denial as to the reality of this ‘European Union’. He thinks of ‘Europe’ as just a ‘Common Market’. But then huge numbers of folk here do. Huge numbers still refer to the ‘Common Market’. Nowhere else in Europe would.

One can only imagine poor Sir Ivan having to brief people who, despite being committed Eurosceptics, have absolutely no idea at all - at all - of how the EU works. Shocking. And this is not lost on the other EU members, who simply shake their heads. What a flipping mess.

Richard Broughton

[Tizer]

I wonder if there might come a day when we see this man as the Democrat candidate for President of the USA...Matthew W. Barzun, US Ambassador to the UK since 2013 and formerly US Ambassador to Sweden: LINK I've just read the 2-page interview with him in Saturday's issue of the The Times and I've heard him a number of times on the radio. Of course he's one of those being booted out by Trump's scourge of all Obama's people. I'm impressed by Barzun, he seems the opposite of Trump which is probably what everyone will need eventually!

I'm both sorry and glad to hear that Stanley is `getting fed up with Jeremy Corbyn'. Sorry that he's fed up but glad that he's not letting party loyalty get in the way of seeing the truth. Corbyn has made a real hash of his time as leader of the Labour Party which is especially bad at a time when we so desperately need a strong opposition.

[Tripps]

" Hard and soft brexit are a nonsense. We will leave the EU and the single market. Membership of the EU means the obligations of membership ."

Well said - there is only one way to 'leave' and that is to 'leave'.
She did say 'Brexit means Brexit'. perhaps she meant it.

We are in for months of people avoiding saying and doing 'the bleeding obvious'.

[Stanley]

Sadly I have to agree with all of you and have nothing concrete to add beyond the fact that I have never seen such a mess.
However, being an historian.... I never lose sight of the fact that in the modern era, the deterioration we see now stems from the late 1960s when Friedman and Chicago School politics gained ascendancy and we went back to basically Monetarist models in economics. This included a free hand for the banks of course so the suits could make more money and since then greed and pure cash has dominated political thinking to the exclusion of principle and the long view of international relations. What we are looking at now all stems from this lack of statesmanship and it will get worse. I have never seen such a bloody mess or gloomy prospect. It will take some sort of crisis to usher in common sense and principle-based politics again. Add the wild card of the Manchurian candidate and God alone knows what will happen next.
See THIS for news that the bookies have the chance of Trump being impeached or resigning before the end of his first term at a 50/50 bet and worsening. I know the bookies aren't always right but the very fact that this is being even considered is quite unprecedented.

[Tizer]

.. the bookies have the chance of Trump being impeached or resigning before the end of his first term at a 50/50 bet and worsening. I know the bookies aren't always right...

No they're not always right...I'd put the likelihood of impeachment as far stronger than 50/50. I can see the whole thing blowing up very fast and very soon and perhaps involving some serious trouble with Putin, Poland and tanks. That leads into NATO, which in turn brings in the UK, and that could cause problems just when we're in the middle of dumping our European friends. The mind boggles...

At the same time our own politics are in disarray. It makes me think of the Liberal Party 100 years ago when it split into two factions then lost the support of workers and went into serious decline. When long-time Labour voters are now asked who they would vote for the answer is often UKIP. They're in the same position as the Trump supporters, they feel their only other choices are don't vote or spoil the ballot paper and UKIP/Trump appeals to them because they want to send a message and/or disrupt the status quo.