Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

[Big Kev]

I believe the local centres have their own timetable. There doesn't look to be any communication between local health centres and mass vaccination centres so I'm still expecting a letter invitng me despite having both doses booked.

[Wendyf]

Local health centres are concentrating on vaccinating people who are vulnerable and also starting on 2nd jabs, so everyone in the current group is expected to attend a mass vaccination centre.

[plaques]

Tragic as they may be but the covid-19 deaths in Pendle will have some long term affects that our Pendle council needs to be giving some serious thought to.

Population of Pendle up to 2018. = 91,405.
Covid -19 deaths in Pendle year ending 2020 = 1,058. year to-date 2021 = 186 . total = 1,244

For those with a long memory Pendle's Core Plan gave a delivery target of new build houses of 3,330 up to the year 2030. This boils down to building 3330 dwellings to accommodate an extra 811 people. The number of people (811) being those in retirement since all the other age groups were in negative growth rates. The covid deaths have now put a big hole in these figures. It could be argued we are set to build 3,330 dwellings for a population that is minus 433 smaller than what the plan was drawn up for.

[PanBiker]

There doesn't look to be any communication between local health centres and mass vaccination centres so I'm still expecting a letter invitng me despite having both doses booked.

Sally got her letter three days after I had booked her appointments. I think the letters are only useful for those that don't do the internet.

[Stanley]

See THIS for a change of policy by the French in that they are now allowing the Astra Zeneca to be used for some older people. You may remember that President Macron said that it was 'quasi ineffective' but the shortage of the Pfizer jab has forced a rethink especially since a report in the UK that it is 80% effective in preventing hospital admissions in the old.

[Tizer]

We're still `permeable' to covid, which is particularly bad when we know about the new variants coming into the UK...
`Some UK arrivals 'still waiting' for quarantine Covid tests' LINK
`Some international arrivals to the UK have waited nine days for Covid test kits that should be taken on day two of a 10-day quarantine period. Travellers from countries not on the UK's "red list" must purchase a £210 testing kit, with a test taken on day two and day eight of isolation. Those who do not take the tests may face penalties of up to £2,000. A government spokesman said there were "no specific issues" with the deliveries or fulfilment of test kits. They advised that customers should receive the test kits, providing the correct details are given at the point of booking. However, several passengers have told the BBC that despite ordering the tests, they never arrived. The social media pages for the testing provider, Corporate Travel Management (CTM), contain other comments complaining about delivery delays...'.

[PanBiker]

I cant understand the difficulty in tracking the bloke who didn't fill his test in properly. Everyone on the flight would be known, there is such a thing as a passenger manifest I believe. So, what's the problem, you have all the details of all the blokes on the flight so just get a few folk to ring them up! I heard yesterday that they had narrowed the search down to 379 houses in one particular area, which doesn't make any sense to me. How can one person be in any one of 379 houses surely they have a unique address?

[Tizer]

I guess those houses are the homes of people who have been in contact with someone on the plane and then they've gone on to contact someone else etc. I think several people on the flight didn't fill in their forms properly.

[PanBiker]

Indeed but they only have one missing who was positive the other five are known. It's tracking him down which is the direct issue. If push came to shove you could send someone knock on the doors of all the blokes that had been on the flight.

If Test and Trace can't find someone who's name and address they already have it's a major failure of the system.

[Whyperion]

I cant understand the difficulty in tracking the bloke who didn't fill his test in properly. Everyone on the flight would be known, there is such a thing as a passenger manifest I believe. So, what's the problem, you have all the details of all the blokes on the flight so just get a few folk to ring them up! I heard yesterday that they had narrowed the search down to 379 houses in one particular area, which doesn't make any sense to me. How can one person be in any one of 379 houses surely they have a unique address?

From the batch numbers of the self-tests posted off, which is how this case appears to have been identified.

[Whyperion]

Tragic as they may be but the covid-19 deaths in Pendle will have some long term affects that our Pendle council needs to be giving some serious thought to.

Population of Pendle up to 2018. = 91,405.
Covid -19 deaths in Pendle year ending 2020 = 1,058. year to-date 2021 = 186 . total = 1,244

For those with a long memory Pendle's Core Plan gave a delivery target of new build houses of 3,330 up to the year 2030. This boils down to building 3330 dwellings to accommodate an extra 811 people. The number of people (811) being those in retirement since all the other age groups were in negative growth rates. The covid deaths have now put a big hole in these figures. It could be argued we are set to build 3,330 dwellings for a population that is minus 433 smaller than what the plan was drawn up for.

I suppose it depends on the pattern of the number of household deaths (and excess deaths - which look like overall they may be running below a five year average from April this year ( no flu this year it seems ), in part as the weaker elderly have been effectively thinned out early. Housing really belongs in Politics, but some thought needs to be made about how houses internally need to be of sufficient size and layout for social separation, working and learning at home without interuption, and designed with the like of long-covid health assistants. There will also be those that will want to form new households, and this may not be reflected in the present plan forecasts, additionally some will want larger houses for multi-generations. Also many properties are old and tired - particulary council stock , replacement is needed as much as new build - of which indeed little on greenfield areas is desirable - some idea though that if the rail link to Skipton and Leeds ever gets put in place that the increase in the economy could function with more housing ( Personally some new flats in the town of Nelson would not go amiss IF the return to healthy shopping locations will be a thing of the past with towns becoming different things in the future ).

[Whyperion]

I've heard that you don't have to wait for an invite if you are over 60, just go on the website and book yourself in.

Didn't know that , Will let some people whom dont know what the situation is, thanks.

[Whyperion]

.....if a normal life as previous re-starts in say October, that there will be a continued background level of some 5000 cases, 1000 hospitalisations and 200 deaths per week as part of the virus within the UK........

From Tripps 'Worldometers' Using their charts for the UK. the projection for hospital beds in June 2021 is 1,341, and deaths 242 (worst) and 51 (without universal masks). They are not making predictions beyond June so your figures could quite well be in the parish since it all seems to be a big guessing game.

I never looked at the Charts, just my own guess. Should I adjust it , given the apparent change in both the mix of the lockdown lite we effectively have at present and the vaccine roll-outs. In passing, I had argued that the second dose should be given in line with the original medical test evidence, I now wonder if the extra protection is worth the original , or a slightly extended timescale, instead being delayed until a brew covering some of the more troublesome noted variants is created ( lets say six months from now ?), this may need revision if say care homes become over-whelmed quickly with vaccine resistant variants , its a difficult call. But I stand by my figures as I had factored in what I also think is an under-prepared and under-protected educational sector, and a government reluctance to cancel international movement , have any effective test/trace and effective isolation/quarantine systems. So, next Winter (nov onwards), will there be a spike of new cases that are wholly vaccine resistant - do the numbers rise beyond my thoughts, for that I am not sure, I dont think we can be confident that humanity has got the measure of coronaviruses - be interesting to see what happens in Israel as an indicative test.

[plaques]

I suppose it depends on the pattern of the number of household deaths (and excess deaths - which look like overall they may be running below a five year average from April this year ( no flu this year it seems ), in part as the weaker elderly have been effectively thinned out early. Housing really belongs in Politics, but some thought needs to be made about how houses internally need to be of sufficient size and layout for social separation, working and learning at home without interruption, and designed with the like of long-covid health assistants. There will also be those that will want to form new households, and this may not be reflected in the present plan forecasts, additionally some will want larger houses for multi-generations. Also many properties are old and tired - particularly council stock , replacement is needed as much as new build - of which indeed little on greenfield areas is desirable - some idea though that if the rail link to Skipton and Leeds ever gets put in place that the increase in the economy could function with more housing ( Personally some new flats in the town of Nelson would not go amiss IF the return to healthy shopping locations will be a thing of the past with towns becoming different things in the future ).

The population and housing studies are quite detailed. The general population of Pendle is projected to decrease in all age groups except for retirees giving a total reduction of 1%. Our Conservative council which was in power at the time when the plan was drawn up initially set a population growth of 10% which they then amended down to about 6% after my objection. All this was wishful thinking since the census records over 10 years showed the population to be stagnating. The covid -19 deaths have hit Pendle quite hard, 1,257 to-date, The spread within age groups has not been published. The effect of Brexit and the past influx of foreign workers has not been quantified.
On housing, again the survey is very detailed with people per household, type of housing, prices and general income levels for potential sale prices.
Realistically we have to accept that Pendle contains a lot of low cost terraced housing that could be approaching 100 years old so up-grading is always a factor but against this if old properties are demolished then the quantity is added on top of the original projected list. The original housing plan went berserk with the feeling that if land had grass on it then build on it.

[Big Kev]

I've heard that you don't have to wait for an invite if you are over 60, just go on the website and book yourself in.

Didn't know that , Will let some people whom dont know what the situation is, thanks.

The website, for booking the jab
https://www.nhs.uk/book-a-coronavirus-v ... nhs-number
You have to book for both jabs, I'm booked in at Burnley on Saturday for the first one.

[PanBiker]

32, The Mall is in the old Next outlet in the shopping centre Kev if that is your venue.

[Big Kev]

Aye, that's the one.

Interesting that 'most things will be back to normal' by June but furlough has been extended to September...

[plaques]

Interesting that 'most things will be back to normal' by June but furlough has been extended to September...

This begs the question what normal is, If looking at last years end of June's figures the infection rate was round 600 (7 day average) and the Death rate 60 (7 day average) these numbers stopped like this until the end of September. Most businesses opened up so the numbers furloughed dropped. Remembering that furloughing is a polite alternative to unemployed which would be bad for government records.
So yes we could be back to normal as long as the Normal does mean another spike of infections as winter sets in.
BUT, in July we will have the full rules of the Brexit to contend with which could mean that his new normal is a lot smaller than the old normal.
Humpty Dumpty. Words mean what I want them to mean...

[Stanley]

"BUT, in July we will have the full rules of the Brexit to contend with which could mean that his new normal is a lot smaller than the old normal. "
Dead right Ken, that's the elephant in the room as far as any calculations go on 'normal'.

[Tizer]

Texans are so tough that a silly little virus can't do them any harm...
`Covid: Biden says ‘Neanderthal thinking’ behind lifting of mask rules' LINK

[Stanley]

The same thought struck me when I saw the statements on mask wearing. It's not so much the masks, but the attitude towards risk of infection. They might have to learn a very hard lesson.

[Big Kev]

We both booked our first covid jabs for this Saturday last week, letters arrived yesterday asking us to book.
The NHS could save themselves a lot of postage if all the vaccine centres, local and mass, were coordinated.
Second jabs are booked for May, managed to book both of us in same place, same time for both jabs.

[plaques]

Telegraph headline ...

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excess.jpg

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.Surely if 'excess' is back to normal then there are no excess deaths whatsoever. Covid-19 has been beaten.

[Stanley]

Just that whatever deaths were down to seasonal flu are now Covid..... Perhaps that's the reality Ken. I heard a doctor saying this week that seasonal flu deaths are at their lowest ever. That being the case, it's flu that has been beaten this year and not Covid. Keep up with the precautions Ken! (I'm sure you will actually..... )

[PanBiker]

Flu like Covid is spread by the touchy, feely hugging and close contact in enclosed spaces that us humans like. Social distancing and extra hygiene regimes will have had an impact on the incidence of Flu which if you like is a very welcome unintended consequence.