OneGuyFromBarlick

Tripps wrote: ↑19 Dec 2021, 20:00 I doubt the numbers for omicron cases too. have they the analysis capacity to differentiate? (I think Tizer mentioned that, but can't find it)

My understanding is that the PCR test doesn't reliably distinguish between variants but can detect all variants. If a sample tests positive in PCR it's then sent on for genomic sequencing and that does distinguish between all variants.

However this was published in the Guardian on 7th of December - I've seen nothing more about it so can't say whether it's reliable information or not...
`Scientists find ‘stealth’ version of Omicron that may be harder to track: Variant lacks feature that allows probable cases to be distinguished among positive PCR tests' LINK
`Scientists say they have identified a “stealth” version of Omicron that cannot be distinguished from other variants using the PCR tests that public health officials deploy to gain a quick picture of its spread around the world....The stealth variant has many mutations in common with standard Omicron, but it lacks a particular genetic change that allows lab-based PCR tests to be used as a rough and ready means of flagging up probable cases. The variant is still detected as coronavirus by all the usual tests, and can be identified as the Omicron variant through genomic testing, but probable cases are not flagged up by routine PCR tests that give quicker results.

`The discovery of the new form of Omicron prompted researchers to split the B.1.1.529 lineage into standard Omicron, known as BA.1, and the newer variant, known as BA.2. “There are two lineages within Omicron, BA.1 and BA.2, that are quite differentiated genetically,” Prof Francois Balloux, the director of the University College London Genetics Institute, said. “The two lineages may behave differently.”.'..

And at the end of the day, whatever form you have and whatever the numbers if deaths and serious illness is not increasing significantly then surely this is endemic now rather than pandemic and we need to learn to live with it and make our own choices like most infectious diseases . I may and probably will be proved wrong but my head does not follow the political logic being applied.

Tizer wrote: ↑20 Dec 2021, 10:17 If a sample tests positive in PCR it's then sent on for genomic sequencing and that does distinguish between all variants.

Every one of them? My 'populist' mind doubts that.

Sue wrote: ↑20 Dec 2021, 11:20 but my head does not follow the political logic being applied.

Me too. . . .
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PS
This chap is worth a look. Not visible here, but there's a copy of The Eagle Annual on his bookshelf so he must be sound.

"Follow the science"

I like the logic David, "If he has the Eagle Annual he must be sound."
I once knew a university lecturer who wore a Mickey Mouse Watch. I always trusted his lectures, working on your Eagle principle.

At last an article that says daily figures do not tell the real story


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59704282

It's very close to a non sensational news item

Telegraph reporting 'anti vaxers' block booking covid vaccine appointments to stop other people getting them. These people are sick.

Big Kev wrote: ↑20 Dec 2021, 18:07 Telegraph reporting 'anti vaxers' block booking covid vaccine appointments to stop other people getting them. These people are sick.

There are still plenty of people managing to get them , thank goodness.

Probably the most sensible thing this government could do really, wait for some facts rather than speculate.

Covid: No new measures in England but we rule nothing out, says PM

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59733893

The books are behind bars.... is that to stop him reading them?
It's not what they say but what they do that matters and at the moment that's boost rather than close down.
Er, that's it.....

I've just been listening to Sir Jeremy Farah, chairman of the Welcome Trust giving his views on the situation. I'll leave it to you to find what he said but I found it was perfectly clear, positive and made sense. The main message is that as long as we don't fully engage in vaccinating the rest of the world we are doomed to a succession of variants arriving to attack us over and over again.
That sound right....

Stanley wrote: ↑21 Dec 2021, 03:45 The books are behind bars.... is that to stop him reading them?

As Terry Pratchett explains, books are dangerous, you have to keep them locked up or somebody might go and read them and then get ideas. That's why the monasteries kept them on chains. Can't have people going and learning stuff, can we?

You'll remember how earlier this year 43,000 people in the South-West received incorrect covid test results after errors at the Immensa laboratory in Wolverhampton. They were wrongly told they were negative and didn't need to isolate - so we had 43,000 infected people spreading covid among us. We now get told that the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) was alerted to the unusual figures on 14 September but tests at the lab weren't suspended until 12 October.
`Immensa: Month delay before incorrect Covid tests halted' LINK
And note the comment: Andrew Preston, a microbiologist from the University of Bath, said: This is an issue that should have been flagged very soon after it started to arise, and then there should be procedures in place to at least know what's going on - and say 'hold on a minute' and say 'we need to go in'. "And then in that case, if you have doubts over the veracity of your testing programme you cannot continue to test live samples if you are not convinced by the results.

Tizer wrote: ↑21 Dec 2021, 10:19 You'll remember how earlier this year 43,000 people in the South-West received incorrect covid test results after errors at the Immensa laboratory in Wolverhampton. They were wrongly told they were negative and didn't need to isolate - so we had 43,000 infected people spreading covid among us. We now get told that the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) was alerted to the unusual figures on 14 September but tests at the lab weren't suspended until 12 October.

Is that a bit simplistic, it wasnt 43,000 on a single day, but a period of time, the idea that statistics have to be trimmed to indicate outliers of investigation can only be done once a reasonable baseline median can be calculated, I can understand the delay in seeing a pattern, but not a delay in working out appropriate reaction/actions to that pattern.

Big Kev wrote: ↑20 Dec 2021, 10:12 The number currently in hospital, compared to a year ago, pretty much confirms that. 40,000 in hospital last year with the country locked down and currently around 7,000 now. Have we lost over three quarters of the capacity?

Well the NHS has tried to bring back more elective and postponed regular / delayed treatments, we have lost staff through brexit and with omicron being more catchable there are more staff reporting off sick. We have not been told flu numbers, and after 18months flat out staff are going to need something like a rest. Hopefully the christmas a&e excess will be less this year as partying is reduced.

Tizer wrote: ↑20 Dec 2021, 10:17 `Scientists say they have identified a “stealth” version of Omicron .'..

I thought there were other Stealth virus ( of covid and others ), that have avoided detection, of course packaged with a catchable virus it does become a double whammy. Presumably both variants can be incorporated into a modified vaccine that will pick up relevant indicators.
What is the current world wide capacity for vaccines - if the poorer countries with larger populations need assistance just to allow the west to live in less fear. What structural changes in work, housing, supply chain and transport are needed in order to live with a fairly fatal (or needing time to treat), airborne diseast ?

Peter, as usual, there are failures in these systems which often do not surface. This one did and in any future enquiry must be highlighted and sanctioned.
Too many of these failures are simply nodded through, sometimes because of close links between the politicians and the perpetrators.

This article has just appeared in The Guardian online and sums up the situation at the moment. It's written by Dr William Hanage, professor of the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease at Harvard and the co-director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics...
`Omicron is spreading at an alarming rate, and there’s no solid evidence it’s ‘milder’' Guardian

Just seen Boris say we can do Christmas so long as we're careful. Our numbers today seem 'reasonable' - and I'm wondering why the rest of the world doesn't seem to be seeing exponential less than two day doubling of cases from this particularly infectious strain of the virus. ? Very unscientific I know - but time will tell.

I was going to comment yesterday that his suit jacket is two sizes too small. and he looked as if he had slept in the shirt he was wearing. Well it's the same shirt today, and he's slept in it again. He's a mess - but wasn't always so. I saw a tribute to Andrew Marr on Sunday and a clip from a few years back showed him - and his hair, to be well groomed. Does it matter - I think so.

David, I thought exactly the same thing when I saw a photo of him yesterday. He looks rumpled. Carrie isn't inspecting him before she lets him out, too busy with the new baby.
I agree with you, it matters. He should have a word with Rees Mogg and find how he manages.
(Did you read the piece on Mogg in last fortnight's PE?)
As for Covid. Until I see evidence to the contrary I shall assume everyone is a potential infection risk. (Susan tells me the latest count of staff with Covid at the Thornton care home is over 20.)

A personalised PCR test arrived in the post for Colin yesterday. We were a bit confused as to why but assumed it might be to do with a hospital appointment for a bladder op he was supposed to have on the 31st December but which has been delayed. It turns out that he had failed to thoroughly read an email from the NHS that arrived last week explaining that he was a suitable candidate for the new Covid therapy drug and if he gets Covid symptoms he is to complete the test without delay and he will be offered Sotrovimab ( I think that's the one...).

Good to know the NHS are keeping an eye on him

ditto Kev's comments.

The BBC have put out a positive covid story today. Although based on limited data from Scotland and South Africa it initially show a fairly big reduction in the impact of the Omicron variant in those infected.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59758784

Help. How do I record a standard 'all clear' Lateral Flow Test' on my mobile App. and which App?. These are the LFT's are the ones you do before you visit anyone. Can't seem to find a place to put them, mind you I do have a very short fuse with things that are not straight forward and in your face.

Thanks Wendy. Never come across this site on my mobile. Took it down to a point where I bowed out because the results had gone past the acceptance date but it looked easy enough even for me.

So glad to hear they are keeping such a close eye on Col. Have they offered you anything Wendy?
I'm watching the enormous increases in numbers, hoping that the infection might be milder as forecast and isolating as far as I can.....